Wheels Within Wheels: Did Deval Patrick Enter the NH Primary to Damage Elizabeth Warren?

by Thomas Neuburger

Wheels within wheels. One of the more cogent speculations around Deval Patrick's "entry" into the Democratic primary (actually, just the New Hampshire race) involves his close relationship with what Alex Parene calls "Obama World," the circle of people around Barack and Michelle Obama, like Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod and others like them.

Why did Deval Patrick, former governor of Massachusetts, re-enter the primary race after having already dropped out? Why did he enter the New Hampshire race but no other? Why did he think he could divest himself of the tar that damaged his late-2018 entry? It is a puzzlement.

Or maybe not. The following explanation, from Alex Parene, depends on two ideas. First, that people in the Clinton circle hate Bernie Sanders with a passion that passes reason (no surprise there), and second, that people in the Obama circle hate Elizabeth Warren with the same intensity (for why, see "'Why Are You Pissing In Our Face?': Inside Warren’s War With the Obama Team").

This puts these two teams in a conundrum when it comes to the 2020 primary, since the one viable candidate each camp relies on to defeat both Warren and Sanders — Joe Biden — looks increasing less viable. Biden could still win (I'll have more on that in a separate piece), but clearly a backup plan is needed by each camp, and each camp needs a different backup plan.

Team Clinton could adopt Elizabeth Warren as their "Stop Sanders" savior, though they haven't yet. But the "Stop Warren" Obama people would never adopt Bernie Sanders. What's left to do? Answer: Force Warren out of the race by (hopefully) fatally damaging her in New Hampshire, an early-primary state in her own back yard.

Alex Parene:

There’s Only One Way the Patrick and Bloomberg Campaigns Make Sense

Democratic Party elders are making plans.

...what should Obama World do if it sees Harris (or Cory Booker, or Julián Castro, both of whom are viewed with favor by this camp) struggling to gain traction? Many of this cohort seem to like Mayor Pete Buttigieg and would find his nomination acceptable. Nevertheless, they surely originally envisioned him as, perhaps, a future Senate candidate, or a running mate at best. It can’t be lost on them that the primary calendar after New Hampshire and Iowa becomes rough sledding for a candidate whose entire base of support is white. Still, they can’t back Warren; Sanders is an unserious option; Biden has perhaps lost it.

So: Enter Deval Patrick. But not to actually win the nomination in the primary process. ...

Patrick cannot possibly expect to enter the race at this late hour and run a normal presidential candidacy designed to accrue a majority of delegates ahead of the convention. (Who is he even hiring to run his campaign? There are a dozen active campaigns already being run by campaign professionals!) He won’t qualify for the debates. He has low national name recognition, hasn’t been fundraising, and his history in the private sector is radioactive. No one in decades has entered the race this late and won any primaries or caucuses. He launched his campaign in time to file for the New Hampshire primary but has already missed filing deadlines in multiple other states.

I am not the first person to suggest this, but Patrick seems to have jumped into the race with a clear purpose in mind: to hurt Warren’s chances in New England. (For those who doubt Obama allies would operate like this, please remember who runs the Democratic National Committee, and why.)

Parene goes on to discuss the possibility that both Patrick and Bloomberg are also entering the primary, if only nominally, for yet another purpose — to put themselves in position to be chosen in a brokered convention. (That's a subject I'll also take up in a separate piece; gaming out the convention is actually not that difficult.)

But let's leave convention considerations for the moment. For now just consider the "tough conversation" that Patrick said he had with Warren prior to his recent announcement.

Why would it have been tough? Perhaps because Warren knew instantly exactly what he was up to — and didn't much like it.