Last Night's Democratic Party Debate

Pretty decent debate last night. Elizabeth started off strong but in the end Bernie won. Biden was as pathetic as usual and I get more certain by the day that I would never vote for him-- and I was completely certain of that in 1980. Kamala was desperate, dishonest and hideous and ought to drop out this afternoon. I'm no Tulsi fan but she sure wiped the floor with both Kamala and Mayo Pete when they attacked her, showing how weak and insipid they both are. It's worth noting that the moderators were pretty good and mostly didn't try ginning up bullshit fights. (But I couldn't run to the other room fast enough to shut the TV off before the worst post-debate panel in the history of the known universe started babbling on MSNBC.) And, one more thing-- hopefully Deval Patrick will end his campaign now that he's seen what America outside of Bain Capital thinks of him and his utterly incomprehensible and absurd run for the presidency. His campaign rally at Morehouse College in Atlanta last night drew exactly 2 people (two) who weren't on his payroll-- even fewer than Biden usually draws to his rallies.

And in the Twitterverse? Honan Strategy Group and WPA Intelligence crunched data all evening to understand preliminary reactions to last night’s Democratic debate. Here's what they have concluded:

• There were 1.4 million less tweets this evening than compared with the October debate-- suggesting the debates are missing an opportunity to engage Democratic voters.
• Overall, Joe Biden Won the Debate on Twitter with the largest number of Twitter Mentions (151K).
• But at the same time Biden was the Loser, as sentiment about him was uniformly negative to positive-- 43% to 9%-- the most negative of any candidate on stage.
• Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg were the only candidates who had a greater Share of Voice when compared to the prior debate.
• All seven of the other candidates had fewer Twitter Mentions during this debate compared to the October debate.
• Bernie Sanders had his best debate yet, growing from 48K Twitter Mentions to 71.3K.  Pete Buttigieg doubled his Twitter Mentions while Kamala Harris rebounded with strong viral moments.
• Similar to the October debate, Tulsi Gabbard was the Most Searched Candidate on Google in 48 states, with Pete Buttigieg the most searched for in 2 states-- Iowa, where he leads in early polling, and Nebraska.
• In terms of who went Most Viral, Kamala Harris had 3 of the top 5 most retweeted tweets. Bernie Sanders had 2 of the top 5.
• Tom Steyer Lost the Debate on Twitter with the lowest number of Twitter Mentions (14.7K) and shrinking his Mentions almost by half from the October debate (26.6K to 14.7K).
• Mirroring her drop in polling in early states and nationally, Elizabeth Warren is cratering on Twitter.  Her Mentions were down by more than two-thirds from the October debate (99.4K to 30.5K).  Andrew Yang is beginning to fade as well, down from 81K in September, to 52.3K in October, and 31.2K in tonight’s November debate-- although he had the most positive mentions.

Last week Norman Solomon went to Status Quo Joe’s first campaign rally in California and wrote he found it revealing. It was in Los Angeles and, relative to how many people show up for other candidates, it was pretty empty. Solomon wrote that "No more than 500 people showed up." Solomon wrote that what struck him about the rally "went beyond the dismal turnout and the stale rhetoric from a corporate Democrat posing as a champion of working people. Biden’s slow decline in polls is empirical, but what ails his campaign-- as reflected in that California kickoff rally-- is almost ineffable. Biden is a back-to-the-future product who often seems clueless about the present. In view of so many deep and widespread concerns, from income inequality to healthcare disparities to the climate emergency, his talking points are simply beside the point."

A couple of days ago Biden announced he would oppose legalizing marijuana. Yesterday, the House Judiciary Committee voted 24-10 to go ahead and do exactly that. Biden was out of step with every single Democrat on the committee and, on fact, he was in step with 10 Republicans, even though two very conservative Republicans, Matt Gaetz (FL) and Tom McClintock (CA) voted for legalization. Biden lives in the 80's. He would be a catastrophic nominee.

Now, back to Solomon: "The Biden base has two main components: the corporate media outlets that routinely protect him from critical scrutiny, and the rich people who routinely infuse his lackluster campaign with cash. When and where he isn’t getting fuel from either component of that base, the campaign sputters."

Contrasts with the large and passionate rallies for Sanders and Elizabeth Warren could hardly be greater. Not coincidentally, those two candidates are glad to rely on large numbers of small donations, while Biden relies on small numbers of large donations.

Biden is so afraid of Democratic activists that-- for the second time this year-- he declined an invitation to join other candidates in speaking to a convention of the California Democratic Party. The latest convention heard from eight presidential candidates on Nov. 16, two days after Biden’s kickoff rally, no more than an hour’s drive away in Long Beach.

While careful to stay away from engaged grassroots Democrats, Biden made a beeline for wealthy donors immediately after his sparsely attended rally. First, he hurried over to a reception in West Los Angeles (tickets up to $1,000 each). Later that evening, a local TV station noted, Biden’s fundraising schedule took him to “the Pacific Palisades home of Rick Lynch, the owner of the entertainment marketing firm BLT Communications, and music video producer Lanette Phillips,” with tickets “priced at $500 and $2,800, the maximum individual contribution during the primary campaign.”

The Los Angeles Times reported that Biden “previously made eight fundraising trips to California since entering the race in late April, visiting at least once a month. He has headlined 21 fundraisers in the state, raising money at the homes of Hollywood executives, Silicon Valley tech leaders and other affluent Democrats.”

Among some who roll their eyes about Biden, a kind of conventional wisdom now says that he is sure to fade from contention. But-- in the absence of comparable polling numbers from the numerous other corporate candidates in the race-- the Biden campaign is likely to be the best bet for deep-pocketed political investors seeking to prevent the nomination of Sanders or Warren.

Biden’s decision last month to greenlight super PACs on his behalf has underscored just how eager he is to bankroll his AstroTurf campaign against grassroots progressives no matter what. As he said during an interview in January 2018, “you shouldn’t accept any money from a super PAC, because people can’t possibly trust you.” But ultimately, Biden doesn’t need people’s trust. He needs their acquiescence.