The Best Primary Targets For The 2020 Cycle-- And Blue America's First 2020 Congressional Endorsement

Blue America loves a good primary battle against a stinking incumbent-- and we've been involved with them when other Democrat groups were still looking askance at them... as though incumbents somehow "owned" the seats they were representing and and primary was an affront. We worked on primaries against some of the worst Democrats in Congress-- Rahm Emanuel (New Dem-IL), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (New Dem-FL), Steny Hoyer (MD), John Barrow (GA), Darren Soto (FL), Kurt Schrader (Blue Dog-OR), Dan Lipinski (Blue Dog-IL-- see you soon, again, Dan) and the successful ones against Joe Crowley (New Dem-NY), Tim Holden (Blue Dog-PA), Silvestre Reyes (TX) and Al Wynn (MD). One thing I've learned is that among all the necessary components to a successful primary you need a solid villain and you need a driven, compelling candidate. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Matt Cartwright, Beto O'Rourke and Donna Edwards are classic examples of winning primary candidates.

I talked to potential candidates against Crowley for years and never came up with the right one. Ocasio-Cortzez was a self-starter, who wasn't waiting for anyone to give her permission. The Democratic political establishment hates primaries against incumbents and they come down on challengers like a ton of bricks, as they did against her and against Cartwright, O'Rourke and Edwards, none of whom buckled in the slightest.

Persuading voters that their congressman is a villain is never easy. Never. But I've put together a short list of the best Democratic primary targets in the House for the 2020 cycle. It's based on how much the incumbent deserves a primary and takes into account how winnable the primary would be with a good, solid challenger. Left out are even the worst freshmen since none of them have a relevant record yet. Yet.

• Dan Lipinski (Blue Dog-IL)- workin' on it- D+6
• Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX)- D+9
• Jim Costa (Blue Dog-CA)- workin' on it- D+9
• Frank Pallone (NJ)- workin' on it- D+9
• Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN)- R+12
• Josh Gottheimer (Blue Dog-NJ)- R+3
• Jim Cooper (Blue Dog-TN)- D+7
• Kathleen Rice (New Dem-NY)- workin' on it- D+4
• Tony Cárdenas (New Dem-CA)- D+29
• Al Lawson (New Dem-FL)- D+12
• Gregory Meeks (New Dem-NY)- D+37
• Sanford Bishop (Blue Dog-GA)- D+6

Yesterday there was a minor fuss online over Hakeem Jeffries, a Wall Street hack from Brooklyn with tremendous ambition. Politico reported that Alexandria Ocasio and the Justice Democrats are planning to primary him. He's far from my favorite Democrat but I don't know he rises to the best target. His voting record is good ("A" from ProgressivePunch) and it would be really to successfully paint him as a villain in that district (where I used to live). The PVI Is D+36, so obviously there's no worries about defeating him and seeing a Republican grab the seat, which is exactly what would happen after a successful primary against Collin Peterson. (The district starts at the tip of Coney Island, moves east through Sheepshead Bay, north through Flatlands, Mill Basin, Canarsie, East New York, Howard Beach, Ozone Park, Bedford-Stuyvesant, Clinton Hill and west into Downtown Brooklyn.)

I think they may be overstating Ocasio's role in this. But, who knows? Maybe I'm wrong. According to Politico, "The person who spoke with Ocasio-Cortez and her team, who asked for anonymity to discuss a private conversation, called Jeffries the 'highest priority' primary target of Ocasio-Cortez." Seems silly to me when there are far better targets like Lipinski in Chicago and Greg Meeks right there in NYC. Politico: "Challenging Jeffries would open an audacious new front in Ocasio-Cortez’s efforts to steer the direction of the Democratic Party, pitting her and allies against a rising-star African-American Democrat seen by some as a potential future speaker of the House. It would also set off another intra-party New York City brawl-- Jeffries’ Brooklyn district is just a few miles south of Ocasio-Cortez’s Bronx-and-Queens seat-- that would peak just as Democrats hope to rally around a presidential nominee in mid-2020."

The fact that a corrupt corporate Democrat beholden to Wall Street is being talked about in establishment circles as a future Speaker is actually a good reason to consider short-circuiting his career now. I know for sure that Crowley fund-raising was easier because he had been picked by the establishment to follow Pelosi in the role.

Jeffries has sparked the ire of Justice Democrats for several reasons. The group feels Jeffries takes too much money from corporate interests, a key litmus test, and is overly friendly with banking and pro-charter school interests. But Ocasio-Cortez is also unhappy that a campaign donation to her from Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) was allegedly used in a whisper campaign against Lee before her narrow loss to Jeffries in the recent race for Democratic caucus chair-- a charge those allegedly involved have called a complete falsehood.

“It’s personal for Ocasio,” said the person who spoke with Ocasio-Cortez and her staff. "And she’s going to go all out to take him out.”

...Jeffries, a former state legislator who was first elected to Congress in 2012 after running an aggressive primary campaign against former Rep. Ed Towns, forcing him into retirement, represents a majority-black Brooklyn district that’s 23 percent white and 18 percent Latino. Voters there went against Ocasio-Cortez’s preferred candidates for governor and attorney general in 2018 primaries-- Cynthia Nixon and Zephyr Teachout-- instead backing Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Attorney General-elect Letitia James.

Jeffries has climbed the ranks of Congress while working across the aisle, and he is on the cusp of seeing the First Step Act, which he co-sponsored, become law. It would be the fourth bill he's shepherded through the House to be signed into law. The sweeping criminal justice reform measure is expected to pass the Senate this week after years of haggling in both chambers. It reforms prison sentencing, reducing the “three strikes” penalty for drug offenses and giving judges latitude to make exceptions to mandatory minimum guidelines.

Jeffries’ allies said he will be well-prepared to defend his seat-- the former corporate lawyer for CBS and Viacom has more than $1 million on hand after the 2018 cycle, according to OpenSecrets.

"There is no one who knows their district better than Hakeem Jeffries," said Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY). "Hakeem is and will continue to work the district, and he will continue to win by large margins, so, ultimately, whoever primaries him will be wasting their time and their money."

...Justice Democrats-backed primary challenges could sprout elsewhere around the country, too. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas, a Blue Dog Democrat who in the past has won endorsements from the conservative Club for Growth and U.S. Chamber of Commerce, is also on Justice Democrats’ early target list, according to the person with knowledge of the group’s plans.

Justice Democrats said that in 2020 it hopes to challenge more Democrats who, like Crowley, it considers too closely aligned with special interests and it says don’t demographically reflect districts that are minority-white.

“We’re going to double down on primary challenges and look at some of these white, male corporate Democrats similar to Joe Crowley," said Alexandra Rojas, executive director of Justice Democrats. "Many of these places are majority or plurality people-of-color districts that don’t demographically or policy-wise reflect the diverse working class communities they often serve.”

Rep. Scott Peters (New Dem-CA), a leader of the moderate New Democrat Coalition, which has been a target of criticism for progressives, voiced frustrations with Ocasio-Cortez’s push to primary Democrats.

"This majority was made by New Dems and Blue Dogs,” Peters said, referring to a second Democratic caucus considered more centrist than the New Democrats. "It was not made by turning seats from blue to blue. It was made by those people who turned seats from red to blue. If we want to keep the majority, those are the people we should be listening to."

"We should not be listening to people who don’t represent that mainstream voter who’s given Democrats the majority," Peters added.

Peters is far from the mainstream of the Democratic Party. He votes against anything progressive as a reflex. His ProgressivePunch "F" grade shows him with the 9th most Republican crucial vote lifetime score of any Democrat in the House. He would certainly be on everyone's list of primary targets except for the fact that he's leaving Congress two run for mayor of San Diego, selling his seat to someone who seems much better-- policy-wise-- than Peters is, his pal Paul Kerr, who ran for Congress in a different district and self-funded his campaign with a $5,912,728 personal check (98% of his campaign funds). All that money and he came in 7th in the primary, behind 3 other Democrats and 3 Republicans.

Anyway, next month Blue America will be revealing our first couple of forays into 2020 primaries. First though, as of this morning, we have our first congressional endorsement: Kara Eastman. Kara, who came very close to defeating Republican incumbent Don Bacon last month, just announced she is seeking a rematch in 2020. The margin between them was less than 2%, just 4,945 votes. Perhaps this time the DCCC will actually give her a hand instead of leaving her to the tender mercies of the GOP congressional SuperPAC and their smear campaign. This morning, Kara told her neighbors in Omaha that "Running for Congress to represent the Nebraska 2nd was the greatest honor of my life. I am proud of our campaign and the enthusiasm we ignited in the district. Donald Trump and Don Bacon continue to fuel the incredible partisan divide in our country. Nebraskans deserve an independent voice who can bring people together and fight for the things we all need and deserve. All Nebraskans should be able to get ahead when they work hard; that means having a living wage, healthcare, and affordable, healthy housing. They also deserve a representative who will fight against the corruption we are seeing in DC and stop the outsized corporate influence in our political system. The recent court ruling to overturn the Affordable Care Act is just another example of the Republican effort to strip healthcare away from Americans without a policy to replace it. Bacon even opposed Medicaid expansion, which passed by more than seven percentage points in our state. He continues to demonstrate that his extreme positions are out of touch with those of his regular working-class constituents. I spent the past two years introducing myself to the Nebraska 2nd, now I am excited to give everyone a chance to really get to know me. I am ready to roll up my sleeves again, talk to voters, and earn their votes in 2020."

If you'd like to join us in welcoming Kara into the 2020 election fray, you can do that right here.