Why Did Trump Suddenly Order U.S. Troops Out Of Syria?

Military Industrial Complex Republicans seem extremely-- existentially-- upset that Trump tweeted an insinuation that he's pulling the 2,0000 American troops out of Syria. Listen to Adam Kinzinger (above) talking with Jake Tapper on CNN a few hours ago. Or to Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio (below)-- a real two for one:



Many people just assumed Trump was doing his crazy Aderall-fueled early morning tweeting again and that his national security staff would talk him out of it. But... no he actually has ordered staff to execute the "full" and "rapid" withdrawal of US military from Syria, declaring that the U.S. has defeated ISIS. "The decision," reported CNN, "a sharp reversal from previously stated U.S. policy, surprised foreign allies and lawmakers, sparking rebukes, rebuttals and warnings of intensified congressional oversight, even as the White House said troops are already on their way home." It would be very hard for him to back down now and look weak, stupid and manipulated to his moron base, the 25-30% of Americans who still think he's something other than a congenital liar.

The President's decision flew in the face of policy statements by administration officials just days earlier and military statements about the threat of ISIS, highlighting the continuing dysfunction at the most senior levels of Trump's administration.

Even though the US will continue to maintain troops in Iraq with the capability of launching strikes into Syria, many analysts said a withdrawal of ground forces will please US enemies by clearing the way in Syria for the Assad regime, Russia and Iran. A US departure could leave allies questioning Washington's commitment, reduce US awareness of dynamics on the ground and diminish Washington's influence in the region.

It is "extraordinarily shortsighted and naive," said Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, who added that the decision will not only leave Iran hawks-- including lawmakers and Cabinet members such as national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo-- feeling "betrayed," but also plant the seeds for rebellion among Republican ranks.

"This is a specifically Trumpian decision, and one that will be deeply unpopular within the vast majority of the GOP's foreign policy machine," Lister said. "Whether it takes hours or months, we will see some serious resistance coming out of this."

The fallout for Iran policy will be significant, said Derek Chollet, a US assistant secretary of defense in the Obama administration and now an executive vice president at the German Marshall Fund. "This drives a stake into the heart of the administration's Iran strategy."

The churn in the administration's foreign policy echoes-- and may be designed to distract from-- major upheaval on the domestic front, as Trump contends with criminal investigations into his campaign, transition, inaugural committee and presidency, the dissolution of his charity amid charges he used it to enrich himself and his former national security adviser Michael Flynn awaiting sentencing after lying to the FBI about his contacts with Russian officials.

While Trump repeatedly returned to the idea of pulling troops out of Syria on the campaign trail and in office, the move is hard to square with his other policy priorities or his past criticism of Obama.

"Trump himself said on the campaign trail that he may not have liked being in Iraq, but Obama ruined a lot by pulling out too early and not thinking about what would happen next," said David Adesnik, the director of research and a Syria analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "Here he is ignoring precisely that lesson."

"Every indicator that would tell you this is a premature withdrawal is back again," Adesnik added.

Lister said it was "extraordinary to see (Trump) repeating the same mistake and I actually think this could be worse," as Syria is in far worse shape than Iraq had been.

US allies in the region [some combination of Jordan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia since Trump had already gotten permission from Netanyahu] were blindsided by the announcement. Two diplomatic sources from two countries in the region said they had not been consulted or informed and that news of the planned withdrawal came as a "total surprise."

Tobias Ellwood, a minister in the British Ministry of Defense, said in a tweet that he "strongly" disagrees with Trump's comment on Wednesday that ISIS had been defeated. "It has morphed into other forms of extremism and the threat is very much alive," Ellwood wrote, while the Defense Ministry told CNN there would be no immediate change to its current operation in Syria.

According to a statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office, Trump informed Netanyahu on Monday of his decision. Netanyahu also had a conversation Tuesday with Pompeo. The two men reassured the Prime Minister that the US had "other ways of expressing their influence in the area," the statement added.

Iran is Israel's central concern. In September, Bolton said the United States wouldn't leave Syria as long as Iranian forces continued to operate there, directly linking any withdrawal of American troops to the departure of Iranian forces.

"We're not going to leave as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders, and that includes Iranian proxies and militias," Bolton said at the time.

Asked if Wednesday's announcement meant that threat no longer exists, a White House official who declined to be identified publicly told CNN, "US forces will continue the fight against ISIS. We will continue to use tools of national power, including economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure, as leverage to press for the withdrawal of Iranian-backed forces."

But the administration's ability to push back on Iran-- a major foreign policy priority-- will take a hit because of Trump's decision, Adesnik said.

"It's a big reversal," he told CNN. "We have announced a policy of pushing back against Iran's nuclear violations and aggression in the region on every front. And Syria is an absolutely central front for Iran; for them it's an indispensable ally."

"You can't have a counter Iran strategy if you just hand Syria back to them," Adesnik said, "and it's not clear to me if this withdrawal in any way accounts for that."

Lister said it amounts to giving up "all leverage and as part of a regional strategy of containing Iran, all of that becomes a joke. We've just told Iran and all of our regional allies we don't believe in sticking it out to achieve our foreign policy objectives."

"Iran will take this as a huge vote of confidence," he said.

Republicans might be grousing today but Trump's #1 amigo sure isn't. Putin was oh so pleased his investment in Trump's election was paying off once again. Tass-- basically Putin's p.r. agency-- reported that Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Maria Zakharova said "A milestone story which might evolve from this decision is a real prospect for a political solution. Hope emerges that this location on the Syrian map will follow the example of Aleppo and other Syrian towns and villages which begin getting back to peaceful life. Once Americans were there, there was no such hope."