Will Republicans Hold a Presidential Primary in 2020?

Donald Trump and John Kasich face off at a 2016 presidential primary debate (Joe Raedle/Getty Images; source)

by Gaius Publius

I normally don't follow the predictable machinations of Republicans, partly because there's a national industry these days to do that for me, and partly because that's not where the actual action is. (The actual action will be here in 2020.)

But the bits of information that follow are too good not to pass on. First, it seems that South Carolina Republicans are considering not holding a primary contest for president in 2020. This has all the look of a trial balloon, but it may take off. So far, only John Kasich is complaining.

Second, it looks like the committee to re-elect Trump and the Republican National Committee may merge, if not completely, then in some very significant ways, including blending their funds. As the writer I'm about to quote would say, the line between Trump and the whole rest of the Party is fast disappearing.

Both of these pieces of information come via this article by Jack Holmes in Esquire, which quotes, first, the Washington Examiner on the South Carolina primary, and second, Politico on the blending of funds.

Read through the snark to the ideas themselves. Holmes clearly has a larger point to make, which, while true, isn't my point. He starts:

Republicans May Cancel a 2020 Primary Out of Fealty to Dear Leader

Just as Donald Trump is a natural outgrowth of decades of escalating Republican ideology, the Republican Party is now inseparable from Donald Trump. For all the talk of Brave, Independent Voices of Dissent in the Senate, Jeff Flake votes with the president 81 percent of the time. Susan Collins is with him 77 percent. Bob Corker, who's lamented that Republicans are in a "cult-like situation" with Trump, votes with him 84 percent of the time. Among the rank-and-file, his approval rating is currently 86 percent—compared to 38 percent of the general public. Perhaps more importantly, whatever the president says seems to become the truth for a third of the American public....

On the flip side, though, there seems to be genuine anxiety among some in the party apparatus about the 2020 campaign. First of all, the guy is in some legal trouble. Trump University and the Trump Foundation have already been shut down for illegal activity. The Trump campaign, transition, inaugural committee, and the Trump Organization are all under investigation for...more illegal activity. The New York Times accused him outright of a decades-long scheme to commit tax fraud. Second of all, there are constant, swirling rumors that he will face a primary challenge from someone like John Kasich, who agrees with him on the vast majority of Republican policy but finds him kind of boorish.

That second fear seems to have taken hold in the South Carolina Republican Party, who imparted to the Washington Examiner Wednesday that they may cancel their 2020 presidential primary for Trump's benefit[.]

From the Examiner piece:

South Carolina GOP could scrap 2020 primary to protect Trump

The South Carolina Republican Party could cancel its marquee presidential nominating contest in 2020 in a move to protect President Trump from any primary challengers.

Drew McKissick, chairman of the South Carolina GOP, said he doesn’t anticipate Trump would face a primary challenge and emphasized that the state party executive committee hasn’t held any formal discussions about the contest, dubbed “first in the South” and usually third on the presidential nominating calendar. But McKissick would pointedly not rule out canceling the primary, indicating that that would be his preference.

“We have complete autonomy and flexibility in either direction,” McKissick told the Washington Examiner on Tuesday. “Considering the fact that the entire party supports the president, we’ll end up doing what’s in the president’s best interest.”

The Esquire article goes on to explore the matter, including citing precedent in the cases of George H.W. Bush, he of the recent, glowing, undeserved praise, and also his son George W.: "In 1992, the Iowa GOP didn’t issue a presidential ballot during its caucus, to save President George H.W. Bush from being embarrassed by Pat Buchanan... In 2004, when President George W. Bush was running for re-election, the South Carolina GOP skipped its presidential primary."

What are the odds this will happen? “Pigs will fly before the South Carolina GOP allows Trump to have opposition,” according to Matt Moore, a former SC Republican Party chair.

The Esquire article also quotes Politico on the matter of the merging, to a greater or less degree, of the re-election committee and the RNC:

Under the plan, which has been in the works for several weeks, the Trump reelection campaign and the RNC will merge their field and fundraising programs into a joint outfit dubbed Trump Victory...The goal is to create a single, seamless organization that moves quickly, saves resources, and — perhaps most crucially — minimizes staff overlap and the kind of infighting that marked the 2016 relationship between the Trump campaign and the party.

Both of these moves will make it quite difficult for a primary challenger to emerge. After all, if other states follow South Carolina's lead, an increasing number of convention delegates will simply be impossible for a challenger to win. And if the RNC becomes an arm of the Trump campaign (in the same sense that the DNC became an arm of the Clinton campaign in 2016), the deck will be well and truly stacked.

An interesting development in a country that supposedly stands for democracy. Note that the deck-stacking has and is occurring in both parties. Trump, however, has a special gift: To quote Jack Holmes, Trump "says the quiet parts out loud" and gets away with it.

That, saying the quiet parts out loud, is indeed a change.

GP