Alaska Can Determine Which Party Controls The Senate-- And Which Candidate Becomes President

Senate candidate John Wayne wants Alaska to secede-- or at least to not pay any taxes

Yesterday, writing for the Washington Post, Seung Min Kim reported that "Republican senators up for reelection this fall in tight races have been unwilling to publicly criticize Trump as he continues to fan racial tensions and struggles to control a pandemic that has devastated the economy and killed close to 130,000 Americans. But they are being careful not to embrace him either. In their campaign ads back home, it’s as if the unpopular incumbent president doesn’t exist, as Republicans choose instead to highlight their own achievements or go on the attack against their Democratic challengers. This deliberate approach underscores the difficult position Republicans find themselves in as they head into an election season that looks increasingly grim for the party. The senators don’t want to clash with Trump and rile up his stable of loyal supporters whose votes they will need to be reelected, but they also don’t want to hug him tightly him and turn off more moderate voters whose views of the president have turned negative."

Even in Alaska? The spineless, worthless Democrats don't even run federal candidates there. Two unpopular Republican incumbents, Senator Dan Sullivan and Rep. Don Young, are up for reelection in November and the hollow shell of a Democratic Party is backing two independent candidates, Al Gross for Senate and Alyse Galvin for House. Sullivan is so dazed and confused that he isn't even running any ads. And Young's ads are all about the glories of shooting wolves out of low-flying planes or about his gigantic antler collection from all the dead moose he's slaughtered. No one's mentioning Trump, even though he beat Hillary 163,387 (51.3%) to 116,454 (36.5%) with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 5.9%. Alaskans like independents. In fact, that's why Sullivan should feel nervous.

PPP released a fascinating poll results from Alaska yesterday. One of my favorite bits of info isn't about either 2020 race. Respondents were asked if they approve or disapprove of Senator Lisa Murkowski. 55% disapproved and just 29% approve. That's much worse than results of the same question asked about Trump. 46% approve and 49% disapprove. Nonetheless, when voters were asked "Who do you have a higher opinion of: Lisa Murkowski or Donald Trump? ," they picked Murkowski 48% to 45% for Trump.

I doubt Trump is going to lose Alaska's 3 electoral votes. Alaskans don't like him or Biden (who has a 53% unfavorable rating to overcome) but when picking between the lesser evil, people PPP asked-- 21% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 44% independents-- it was very close:

The Senate race is strange-- politics in Alaska is strange. Voters disapprove of the job-- basically rubber-stamping Trump on everything-- Sullivan has done: 35% approve, 37% disapprove, one of the lowest approvals of any sitting U.S. senator this year. Most people (72%) don't know who Al Gross is yet or haven't made up their minds about him Voters are torn between the two candidates:

But what PPP doesn't get into is John Wayne. There's a third independent on the ballot, John Wayne Howe-- on the Alaska Independence Party ballot line. John Wayne is running to Sullivan's (and Gross') right. The front page of his campaign website makes it clear where he stands: "We are buffeted by many ills from government. Foremost in my mind is taxation. The government; Federal, State, borough, city, all are thieves. Even when the spending comes from a vote of the people it is stealing, the only difference is those that voted for spending are now also guilty. How do we fund government without theft? It may sound as a joke, until you spend a few weeks thinking about it, but the funding Must come from individuals voluntarily giving. This is the only way government will ever be responsive to the people. If government is not voluntary, it is a dictatorship. I will do all I can to end taxes."

His campaign is also exciting NRA fans-- and Alaska has plenty of them-- because he's running on a platform about passing a law to allow transporting military assault weapons across state lines. He'll probably take 10% of the vote-- and that will come right off the top of the GOP's electorate.

Meanwhile Gross is attempting to appeal an organic base of support that cuts across partisan lines. The Democratic Party has endorsed him and will work for him and the DSCC is helping him raise money. And he has a growing following of voters that Democrats historically have not been able to identify with: rural voters, hunters, fishermen, etc. So far he hasn’t run a dime of paid communications, which he will need to do to bring up his name recognition. As of the March 31 FEC reporting deadline he had raised a massive $3,020,756, so presumably he will be running a major TV and radio ad campaign.

As for Sullivan, he has zero street cred in Alaska and can’t turn to his rich parents in their Ohio country club to get it. Maybe he should run for office there.

As far as the at-large House seat, voters disapprove of Don Young 44-35%, while Alyse Galvin has a 30-22% favorable rating among the same voters. SO who would they vote for if the election were held today?

If Trump manages to drive a close electoral college battle into the House-- something we looked at a few days ago-- flipping the Alaska House delegation from red to blue, could determine who the next president is!

Maine GOP Senator Collins Never Much Cared For Trump-- And His Toxicity Is About To End Her Career

Republicans in states or districts that are so red that they don't need independent voters to win, have no problem continuing to support Trump. At least in theory, the states where Republicans can win without significant independent support are these half dozen red hellholes (with their PVIs):

• Wyoming- R+25
• Utah- R+20 (except even Republicans there hate Trump)
• Oklahoma- R+20
• West Virginia- R+19
• Idaho- R+19
• North Dakota- R+17

And these are the dozen reddest House districts in the country-- where Republicans can win without independent voters and where even an anti-red mega-tsunami will leave Republicans in power-- along with their incumbents:

• TX-13- R+33 (Mac Thornberry)
• TX-11- R+32 (Michael Conaway)
• KY-05- R+31 (Hal Rogers)
• GA-09- R+31 (Doug Collins)
• AL-04- R+30 (Ron Aderholt)
• TX-08- R+28 (Kevin Brady)
• TX-04- R+28 (John Ratcliffe)
• TN-01- R+28 (Phil Roe)
• TX-19- R+27 (Jodey Arrington)
• OK-03- R+27 (Frank Lucas)
• NE-03- R+27 (Adrian Smith)
• GA-14- R+27 (Tom Graves)

The problem for Republican senators and Congress members in this cycle is that lots of states with senators up for reelection and lots of House districts have incumbents (or empty seats) where no one wins without significant support from independent voters.) These are the half dozen states were independents will make the most difference this cycle:

• Maine- D+3 (Susan Collins-R)
• Colorado- D+1 (Cory Gardner-R)
• Michigan- D+1 (Gary Peters-D)
• Iowa- R+3 (Joni Ernst-R)
• North Carolina- R+3 (Thom Tillis-R)
• Arizona- R+5 (Martha McSally-R)

The only safe incumbent this cycle is the one Democrat in one of these swing states, Gary Peters (MI). The rest are all vulnerable. Trump's turn-out-the-base strategy has turned off independent voters to the point where his approval with them in in the toilet, deep in the toilet. If the election were held today, a significant majority of independent voters would go to the polls determined to fuck him up, which means voting against him and voting against other candidates in his party.

The impeachment issue puts these vulnerable Republicans in an awkward position. As the PPP survey of Maine voters showed yesterday, the Republican incumbent-- Susan Collins-- is screwed no matter what she does. If she supports Trump, independents will abandon her. If she votes to impeach Trump, the GOP base will abandon her. Cory Gardner, Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis and Matha McSally face similar dilemmas, even if not as pronounced. In Maine 37% of voters self-identify as Democrats, 32% as Independents and 31% as Republicans.

PPP’s newest Maine poll finds that Susan Collins is in trouble for reelection…and that she’s likely to find herself in more trouble no matter what side of impeachment she comes down on.

Collins is unpopular, with only 35% of voters approving of the job she’s doing to 50% who disapprove. She trails a generic Democrat for reelection 44-41. That represents a big drop for Collins compared to a poll we did last September when she led a generic Democrat by 6 points at 44-38. At that time she only trailed 64-21 among Clinton voters but in the wake of her vote on Brett Kavanaugh and the general hardening of partisan lines she’s lost a lot of her crossover support and now trails 76-12 with Clinton voters.

53% of Mainers support impeaching Donald Trump with 44% opposed. When we ask voters who they would choose if Collins opposed impeachment, her 76-12 deficit among Clinton voters grows even further to 83-8 and she goes from a 3 point deficit against a generic Democratic opponent for reelection to a 7 point deficit at 47-40.

And yet she continues to support his entire crackpot agenda

Collins faces defeat from a different angle if she supports impeachment though. Her numbers are already a little bit soft with Republican primary voters with 53% saying they generally support her for the nomination again to 38% who say they would prefer someone else. We also tested Collins against some specific possible opponents in a primary- she trails Paul LePage 63-29 and Shawn Moody 45-36 but does lead Derek Levasseur who already entered and exited the race this year 55-10.

Things get a lot worse for Collins within the primary electorate if she supports impeachment though. Trump still has an 80% approval rating with GOP voters in the state- much higher than Collins’ 59% approval- and only 14% of primary voters support impeachment to 83% who are opposed to it. When we ask voters about the Republican primary if Collins supports impeachment there’s a 35 point net shift from supporting Collins by 15 points at 53/38 to opposing Collins by 20 points, with just 35% still wanting to nominate Collins if she supports impeachment to 55% who prefer someone else. There’s also a 32 point shift in a hypothetical match with Levasseur from her 45 point initial advantage at 55-10 to just a 13 point advantage at 37-24. And presumably supporting impeaching Trump might bring a more serious primary challenger than Levasseur out of the woodwork.

Collins has been remarkably resilient over the years but the issue of impeachment seems to have the potential to cause her to lose in the general election if she chooses one path and to lose in the primary election if she chooses the other path, leaving her with no good options.

Maine was one of the closer states in the country in 2016, with Hillary Clinton winning it by less than 3 points. It doesn’t look likely to be as competitive this time around. Only 42% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing to 54% who disapprove. He trails Joe Biden by 12 points (54-42), Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders each by 10 points (53-43), Pete Buttigieg by 9 points (52-43), and Kamala Harris by 6 points (50-44).

A Trio Of Polls Out Today Are Devastating For Trump And His GOP Enablers-- Imagine A Senate Without The Turtle After 2020

Duluth, Minnesota is a blue city surrounded by 4 blue counties-- Saint Louis, of which it is the county seat, Carlton to the south, and Lake and Cook to the north and east. All 4 counties went for Hillary in 2016, Saint Louis 51.9% to 40.1%. (The 4 counties were Bernie country in primaries. Not only did Bernie have double the number of votes that Hillary had, he beat Cruz, Trump and Rubio combined.) Trump's moron daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, told an audience in Duluth that she feels the pain of the workers her family has laid off. "We get that this is unfair to you, but this is so much bigger than any one person. It is a little bit of pain, but it’s going to be for the future of our country and their children and their grandchildren and generations after that will thank them for their sacrifice right now... I know it’s hard, I know they have bills to pay, they have mortgages, they have rents that are due, but the president is trying every single day to come up with a good solution here and the reality is it’s been something that has gone on for too long and gone unaddressed,” she said. “I would just tell them, please stay strong, we appreciate everything that you’re sacrificing, we’re behind you and we are going to do everything that we can, I know the president is doing everything he can to resolve this quickly."

Kevin Hassett, Trump’s top economic adviser, had some more salt to rub on their wounds, saying that federal employees were better off because of the shutdown since they did not have to use their personal vacation days over the Christmas holidays. This kind of tone-deafness has driven Trump's approval numbers further down the toilet.

According to a new CBS News poll, Trump's overall approval rating has dipped three points from November to a dismal 36% today. [Experts say if he goes below 33% Republicans will begin pealing away from him in the kind of numbers needed for a bipartisan push towards impeachment-- and... gettin' there: only 34% approval according to the new AP-NORC poll released this afternoon.] 59% of Americans now disapprove of the job he is doing-- a high for his illegitimate "presidency." He's even managed to do something no one has has ever managed: drive up Nancy Pelosi's favorable ratings! American's prefer her to Trump. The Trump vanity-wall and the Trump-McConnell government shutdown are killing Trump and killing the GOP.

Seven in 10 Americans don't think the issue of a border wall is worth a government shutdown, which they say is now having a negative impact on the country. But partisans don't want their own side to budge: 65 percent of Republicans say President Trump should refuse a budget unless it includes wall funding, and 69 percent of Democrats think congressional Democrats should keep refusing to fund it.

Among Americans overall, and including independents, more want to see Mr. Trump give up wall funding than prefer the congressional Democrats agree to wall funding. Comparably more Americans feel House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is handling negotiations better than the president is so far.

...Overall, more Americans say congressional Democrats care about the needs and problems of people like them than say that about President Trump. Most younger Americans, women and racial minorities say Democrats in Congress care about their needs and problems.

...In evaluating the overall job performance of leaders in Congress, Pelosi gets higher approval ratings than GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, although more Americans are unable to offer an opinion of McConnell.

Pelosi gets higher marks from the rank and file in her party, compared to the ratings McConnell gets from his party. About 7 in 10 Democrats approve of the job Pelosi is doing, while just 43% of Republicans approve of McConnell.

The PPP survey that was released Tuesday evening had even worse news for a Republican Party that has attached itself to Trump for better or worse-- and, let's face it, it's been all worse, as the 42 Republicans who lost red districts in November can tell you. PPP's analysis of the numbers at the halfway point in his presidency shows him to be the underdog for 2020. "Trump gets just 41 or 42% in head to head match ups against 7 likely Democratic candidates for President. He trails Joe Biden 53-41, Bernie Sanders 51-41, Kamala Harris 48-41, Beto O’Rourke 47-41, Elizabeth Warren 48-42, and Cory Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand each 47-42. Trump’s low 40s support for reelection essentially tracks with his approval numbers. Only 40% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 57% who disapprove.

PPP sees anyone who can win the Democratic nomination beating Trump at this point-- and his vanity wall and his government shutdown are making it worse for him and for his enablers in Congress. There's a long way to go until 2020, but only an idiot would say Trump can turn things around. All the evidence shows that he will make things worse for himself and for the candidates running on his ticket. The longer we have until election day, the worse he will do to alienate independent voters and even some Republicans.

The shutdown situation is not doing anything to help Trump’s cause. Only 35% of voters agree with Trump that the government should be kept closed until he gets funding for the wall to 60% who disagree. 57% think Congress should vote today to reopen the government without funding the wall, to 38% who are opposed. 55% of voters pin the blame for the shutdown on Trump and the Republicans in Congress to 43% who blame the Democrats in Congress. And on a related note about who’s coming out ahead in the shutdown, voters say they’d prefer to have either Chuck Schumer (46-41) or Nancy Pelosi (47-44) over Trump as President.

As the Russia investigation heats up, 45% of voters think Trump has committed crimes since he began running for President to 41% who don’t think he has. And if the Mueller investigation does find that Trump committed a crime 61% think he should be indicted and prosecuted in the courts, to just 30% who disagree. Already there is 46% support for impeachment, to 44% of voters who are opposed.

“We are still waiting on the findings of the Mueller investigation,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But voters are expecting him to find that Trump has committed crimes, and they want him to be prosecuted for them.”

Trump has tried over the course of his Presidency to use the media as a foil, much as he did with Hillary Clinton during his campaign. It’s not particularly working though- voters trust CBS more than him 52/38, trust NBC and the Washington Post more 51/38, trust ABC and the New York Times more 51/39, and trust CNN more 49/39.

And that's not the end of it. Politico hired Morning Consult to do one for them and the headline tells the whole story: Shutdown, Russia drive Trump to all-time high disapproval. Their polling shows that Trump's disapproval rating is "at an all-time high" amid his historically long government shutdown and concerns about his relationship with Putin! They found that 57% disapprove of his job performance and 54% of voters blame Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill for the shutdown, while just 35%, basically the Trump base, blame congressional Democrats. Americans are getting ready to say-- whether gleefully or sadly-- "YOU'RE FIRED!"

Is there still an anti-red wave waiting to crash down on the heads of Republicans in Congress again, perhaps even more powerfully than it did in November? Will it help Democrats strengthen their majority in the House and win back the Senate despite themselves? Lookin' good so far:

And, according to that new AP-NORC poll referenced above... pretty stunning how America is turning on Trump. We as a people blame him for the shutdown and all the turmoil in DC and in our lives and want him to shove his vanity wall up his fat ass. Last month this same Associated Press-NORC poll found his job approval at an already pretty dismal 42%; now it's at 34%, a low for the past 12 months. That should be worth an extra dozen or so Republican-held House seats. Like, for example-- and hopefully-- bye-bye Michael McCaul (R-TX), House architect of Trump's babies-in-cages strategy.

John Kasich Wouldn't Have To Deny He's About To Become An Independent, If He Wasn't Considering It

Did you watch Ohio Governor John Kasich on State of the Union with Jake Tapper Sunday? There's a short clip above you should watch. He was railing against the Trump-Bannon wing-- "if the party can't be fixed, Jake, then I’m not going to be able to support the party. Period. That’s the end of it. I mean, I’m worried about our country and my kids’ future. I am worried about it. But have I given up? Of course not." Tapper interrupts his ad for Brian Sandoval by asking him if "giving up on the party" means he's talking about "possibly becoming an independent." Kasich almost slips. At the 1:15 point on the video, he responds, "No, not at this p..." but backing off and going back to his "we need to fix it" mantra. "If the Republican Party is going to be anti-immigration, if it’s not going to be worried about debt, if it’s going to be anti-trade, this is not where our party can be."

Well, Republican voters spoke last November and that is where they are. Every poll shows that while a large and growing majority of the country-- including most independent and unaffiliated voters-- rejects Trump's ugly right-wing populism, Republican voters stand firmly with him. Kasich can continue fighting-- "that's why I'm on these shows," he said plaintively-- but it isn't doing much good, at least not yet. His party it spiraling into a civil war and the rest of the country is increasingly turning against the Republican Party and their leaders. The 2018 midterms are shaping up into an apocalypse for the GOP already. The Republicans are out of synch with the vast majority of American voters on just about everything. That new PPP poll, for example:

Trump may be doing poorly with the overall electorate but he's still in pretty firm control of the Republican Party. By a 34 point margin, 61/27, GOP voters say they'd rather have Trump be their candidate for President in 2020 than anyone else. His margins against specific potential Republican challengers are even more emphatic. He leads Mike Pence by 38 points at 59/21, John Kasich by 50 points at 68/18, and Ted Cruz by 53 points at 68/15. His leadership style might not be doing much to help him win over Americans in the middle but it's helping him keep a strong hold on his party base.

Steve Krieg is no John Kasich (although he voted for him in the Republican primary last year). He's a member of the Plattsburgh, NY School Board and last week he announced that he's running for Congress as a Democrat against Elise Stefanik, a vaguely mainstream conservative in upstate New York. She's already got a primary challenger, a Libertarian challenger and at least half a dozen Democrats vying for the party nomination. Krieg, however, was always a Republican and he switched parties and is now claiming to be a Democrat. Which is great; I love new members of the party coming over from the Dark Side. But... is this someone who voted for George W. Bush twice? Who opposed Obama twice? Who voted for Señor Trumpanzee less than a year ago? And now he thinks because he switched parties he's entitled to become the highest-ranking Democrat in NY-21, a huge sprawling North Country district that stretches from Lake Champlain up where New York, Vermont and Canada all meet, south to the outskirts of Saratoga Springs and west to pasted Watertown to Lake Ontario. It's the biggest district in the state and Obama won it both times with 52%. Last year the PVI was "even" and Trump beat Hillary 53.9% to 40.0%. The PVI is now a much redder R+4.

Stefanik has been a complete Ryan rubber stamp, which makes sense, since she was a Ryan staffer before being elected to Congress in 2014. This evening all the candidates except Stefanik will take part in a forum at the Williams High School Auditorium in Canton, including Russ Finley, the Republican challenging her, and these 7 Democrats: Don Boyajian of Cambridge, Tedra Cobb of Canton, Ronald Kim of Queensbury, Emily Martz of Saranac Lake, Patrick Nelson of Stillwater (the Berniecat in the race), Katie Wilson of Keene and, of course, new Democratic "convert" Steve Krieg of Plattsburgh. I guess we'll find out which Republican ideas he's clinging to and which Democratic ideas he's embraced. Think he's a Medicare-for-All backer? His website has no positions page and no clues about where he stands on anything at all (which is similar to most of the candidates other than Nelson, who is very upfront about advocating progressive positions across the board). When I did speak with him, he told me he's put his positions on his Facebook page instead of his website. A couple of months ago Krieg did post a very un-Democratic message on Stefanik's Facebook page: "I intend to kick your stingy, money-grubbing, sniveling coward of a butt out of congress. Don't worry, sweetie, you're a little girl. You can always run home to Mommy and Daddy." Welcome to the party... I guess.

A little update-- after writing the above, I spoke with Krieg on the phone for about an hour.. He switched parties in April-- it will become "official" in December-- because he had been growing more and more frustrated with the Republican Party and then Trump, for whom he did not vote, was the last straw. In fact, he decided to run against Stefanik because she doesn't stand up to Trump and because she doesn't engage in policy conversations with her constituents. When I asked him if there's anything that attracted him to the Democratic Party, he said it was the two parties' relative positions on climate change. He's an optometrist who believes the private sector does things better than the public sector except when it comes to healthcare. He said he liked Bernie's single-payer approach but felt it would have to be implemented incrementally over time because otherwise it "would piss a lot of people off."

He's also "pro-life," not pro-choice and, although he isn't judgmental about a woman stuck in "a trap" pushing her towards an abortion, he would vote against the use of federal funds for abortions. And, since I talked to him less than 24 hours after the mass shooting in Las Vegas, I asked him about semi-automatic weapons. His positions sounded like they came straight out of a canned NRA narrative of flawed "logic," utterly fake "facts" and crackpot theories. He said he will always come down on the side of workers over corporations but was unable to back a $15 minimum wage in the long, windy conversation. Personally, I think he should spend a couple of years being a Democrat and interacting with Democrats politically in Plattsburgh before running for Congress. After our q and a session, he accused me of "possibly" working for one of his opponents to find out what he will say at the candidates' forum tonight.

Despite The DCCC, 2018 Is Looking Better And Better For The Democrats

Over the weekend we ran an analysis-- How High theWave? How High theWave? How Many Republicans Will Drown In It? that predicts the GOP will lose 1,000 state legislative seats by the first Wednesday of November 2016. Brian Stryker and Zac McCrary looked carefully at the results from the 29 state level contested special elections that took place since Trump was declared the winner and came to the conclusion that if the margins continue as they have-- they could also get even better for Democrats as Trump stumbles through his job-- "it will be enough to flip almost a thousand state legislative races, give Democrats control of more state houses than Republicans, and most likely have similar impacts on up-ticket races like Congress/Governor/Senate." PPP's head honcho, Dean Debnam, has come to similar conclusions, stating flatly that 2018 is shaping up big for the Democrats and pointing out that "Democrats continue to hold a double digit lead on the generic Congressional ballot at 48-37, which should position them to pick up a lot of seats across the country next year."

The Democrats would pick up a lot more with even a vaguely competent DCCC and DSCC. Recruiting pitiful Blue Dogs and New Dems to run as if they were real Democrats will cost the party seats, but probably not enough to stop Trump and Ryan from destroying their own party at the polls. "Democrats," said Debnam, "have been winning a lot of elections in 2017. And all indications are that they’re going to keep on winning a lot of elections in 2018."

One reason for the strong position Democrats are in is fallout from the GOP's failed efforts on health care, and our new poll makes it clear Jimmy Kimmel won the health care battle in the court of public opinion. By a 47/34 spread, voters say they trust Kimmel more than the Republicans in Congress when it comes to health care issues. Kimmel has a 47/30 favorability rating nationally. By contrast Paul Ryan is at a 25/51 approval rating, Mitch McConnell is at 14/61, and Congress as a whole has a 9/76 approval.

Only 27% of voters support the most recent Republican health care bill to 53% who oppose it. By contrast the Affordable Care Act continues to have new found popularity with 48% of voters in favor of it and 34% against. Asked which of the bills they prefer the Affordable Care Act beats out the Graham-Cassidy repeal bill 53-34, and only 32% of voters think the best path forward on health care is to repeal the Affordable Care Act while 62% think it's best to keep it and makes fixes as necessary.

The health care debate is having a bad impact on Republicans electorally. By a 19 point margin voters say they're less likely to support a member of Congress who voted for the health care repeal bill- 48% say they're less likely to vote for such an incumbent next year to only 29% who say they're more likely to.

...[V]oters continue to have concerns with Trump's general temperament. Only 39% of voters think he's honest, to 54% who consider him to be dishonest. A plurality of voters- 47%- consider Trump to be mentally unbalanced to only 45% who consider him to be mentally stable. 58% of voters still want to see Trump's tax returns, to only 35% who think it isn't necessary for him to release them. Only 35% of voters think Trump has fulfilled his core campaign promise to 'Make America Great Again' to 53% who think he has not delivered. And for the fifth month in a row we find voters in support of impeachment- 48% favor it, to 43% who are opposed.

“We’re really not seeing any path to Donald Trump achieving a positive approval rating,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters are unhappy with him about a lot of ongoing issues, and new ones seem to creep up in our polling every month as well.”

Without Hillary Clinton to kick around anymore Trump has tried to turn the media into his foil, but we continue to find that he is losing all of his battles with the media. For the first time we added ESPN to the list of outlets we compared Trump with this month, and voters say they trust ESPN over him by a 48/38 spread...

...Trump continues to fare very poorly in possible match ups against Democrats for 2020. We tested Hillary Clinton against Trump this month for the first time, mostly as a baseline for comparison against other possible Democratic candidates, and Clinton leads Trump by 5 points at 47/42. 3 Democrats we tested clearly perform more strongly against Trump than Clinton- Joe Biden who leads by 13 points at 53/40, Bernie Sanders who leads by 11 points at 51/40, and Michelle Obama who leads by 10 points at 51/41. Biden and Sanders both win over 10% of people who voted for Trump last fall while losing almost no Clinton voters.

Other Democrats we tested against Trump are Cory Booker who leads him 47/40, Elizabeth Warren who leads him 47/41, Kirsten Gillibrand who leads him 42/39, and Kamala Harris who leads him 41/40. The percentage support the Democrat gets in these match ups varies from 41% to 53% probably depending on their name recognition, but Trump's support is pretty constant in the 39-42% range against all of these possible challengers.

Voters also wish by a 52/41 margin that Barack Obama was still President instead of Trump.

On the other hand, a Democratic member of Congress sent me this pessimistic look forward, not one I agree with but one worth putting out there since this is an exceptionally smart member of Congress: "If you ask House Dems why the GOP did well in the last four cycles, they will say that it’s because the GOP ran against Obama. They ignore the fact that the GOP ran against ObamaCARE, and a real problem in the lives of 200 million Americans covered by private insurance and without preexisting conditions, i.e., rising health insurance premiums. The 2016 Presidential election devolved into a policy-free anti-Trump campaign, and the 2018 elections are heading in the same direction. There is literally not a single issue that national Democrats collectively are willing to campaign on, even the DREAM Act (which is as close as you come). A party without a platform is not a party that will ride a wave, it’s a party that will sink under the waves." The good news for Pelosi and he incompetent DCCC is that if the wave is big enough-- and I think it will be-- even a bunch of clueless and talent-free hacks can win, though not retain their seats in the next midterm, as we saw with the Rahm Emanuel DCCC Blue Dog class of 2006 that was totally wiped out in 2010. Pelosi's current moron-chairman, Ben Ray Lujan, is consciously and actively trying to duplicate everything Rahm did, including co-recruiting with the Blue Dogs and New Dems.

John Culberson's constituents are not inclined to give him a 10th term

Dr. Jason Westin is the award-winning cancer doctor in Houston running for the congressional seat currently held by Trump and Ryan rubber-stamp John Culberson in a very swingy district. The independent voters in TX-07 are getting fed up with his anti-family shtik and his refusal to meet with his constituents. His votes for TrumpCare were the last straw for many of them who are now eager to see him repealed and replaced himself. Last night Westin told us that "Culberson has been the elected representative for the 7th District in Texas for 9 terms, but it's hard to find many people who could pick him out of a lineup, and even less who could say what he has done for the district. John has become one of Donald Trump's biggest supporters, and has voted with him 98% of the time. After many district residents flooded during Hurricane Harvey, Harris County Commissioner Steve Radack slammed Culberson for failed leadership. If Culberson hasn't figured it out by now, why should TX-07 voters give him a 10th try to finally get it right?"

Trump Supporters Are Drastically Out Of Touch With America

During his deranged campaign rally in Phoenix Tuesday night, Trump had several disparate stream of consciousness themes but what tied them all together was his profound pose as the ultimate victim. Forget about Heather Heyer, who was murdered by a Trump Nazi fan boy, Trump insisted he was the real victim. He's always pretending to be the victim. It's always been his slimy modus operandi. And it's worked for him-- to some extent-- in business and certainly works among the Republican base, which only exists to celebrate it's own victimhood. As PPP's Tom Jensen pointed out in releasing his new post-Charlottesville survey yesterday, Señor Trumpanzee's "approval rating is pretty steady in the wake of the Charlottesville attack, probably because his supporters think that whites and Christians are the most oppressed groups of people in the country... The reason Trump hasn't lost more ground for his widely panned response to the attack is probably that many of his supporters agree with some of the beliefs that led white supremacists to rally in Charlottesville in the first place. Asked what racial group they think faces the most discrimination in America, 45% of Trump voters say it's white people followed by 17% for Native Americans with 16% picking African Americans, and 5% picking Latinos. Asked what religious group they think faces the most discrimination in America, 54% of Trump voters says it's Christians followed by 22% for Muslims and 12% for Jews. There is a mindset among many Trump voters that it's whites and Christians getting trampled on in America that makes it unlikely they would abandon Trump over his 'both sides' rhetoric."

Still just 11% of Americans-- including Trump voters of course-- say they "agree with the sentiment that it's possible for white supremacists and neo-Nazis to be 'very fine people,' to 69% who say that's not possible. "Almost no one in America likes neo-Nazis or white supremacists or thinks they can be good people," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "But Trump didn’t lose many of his voters with his post-Charlottesville comments because so many of his voters do think whites and Christians are the most oppressed groups in this country."

Robert E. Lee has a 36/24 favorability with Americans, with 40% having no opinion of him either way. He's at a 61/10 spread with Trump voters but just a 17/40 spread with Clinton voters. In a finding that says a lot about how we got to where we are today, Trump voters say they would rather have Jefferson Davis as President than Barack Obama 45/20. Obama wins that question 56/21 with the overall electorate.

Things are continuing to look good for Democrats in 2018, as they lead the generic Congressional ballot 49-35. The 14 point lead for Democrats may be too good to be true though-- it's a function of a highly divided Republican base at this point. While Clinton voters say they'll vote Democratic for Congress next year 90- 4, Trump voters say they will vote Republican by only a 74-13 margin. Part of the reason Republicans have done better than expected in 2014 and 2016 is they were divided earlier in the cycle and came together by the end, we will see if that trend continues in 2018.

“Democrats are very well positioned for next year’s elections,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Their voters are a lot more unified than Trump’s. His attacks on his own party’s Congressional leaders are having a very negative impact on their popularity.”

Lamar Smith voted for TrumpCare-- and says he would again

Derrick Crowe is running for the Austin-San Antonio corridor seat currently occupied by the odious anti-health care fanatic Lamar Smith. This morning he reminded us that "In the 21st District, roughly 54,000 rely on the health care exchanges for health coverage. Instead of working to improve their insurance, Lamar Smith voted to kick them off health coverage altogether and add them to the 84,000 people who still lack coverage in this district under the Affordable Care Act. The Republicans' attempt to destroy President Obama's legacy would have let the rest of us get sicker, go bankrupt, and die earlier just so they could get a tax cut. Voters aren't as dumb as establishment politicians like Smith think they are. They know an attack on their lives and livelihoods when they see one. We need to get all of these people covered, period, no exceptions. That's why I support Medicare For All. Health care should be a right, not a privilege in this country."

North Carolina's 5th district has the same kind of assertively backward representative in Congress, Virginia Foxx. Jenny Marshall, the progressive Blue America has endorsed in the race has a very different perspective of health care than Foxx. Jenny sent me this statement earlier today:

"I firmly believe that a repeal of Obamacare is necessary because it is crushing our health care sector," Foxx said. This is how Virginia Foxx views healthcare, in business dollars and cents rather than loss of life and personal costs. If the repeal of The ACA goes through, the CBO has estimated that 1 out of 7 people in the 5th district will loose their health insurance. These hardworking citizens need medical coverage because it is just simply unavailable through their work and too expensive to purchase on their own without help of a subsidy.   The repeal of the ACA will make these already vulnerable households even more at risk in regards to their personal health and economic stability. We know that a healthier and more productive workforce is directly tied to a workforce that has access to medical care as a result of being insured. Republicans, Democrats, and Unafiliated voters are the beneficiaries of the ACA and have rallied together against its repeal but their pleas have fallen on deaf ears. Her lack of concern for the medical needs and financial security of the people in the 5th district and across this county is simply appalling.  Enough is enough.  We need to make the interim changes needed to fix the ACA and move to enact a single payer healthcare plan that provides universal healthcare for all the people living in this country.

A big part of the division among Republicans is being caused by extreme unhappiness with their Congressional leaders, perhaps driven by Donald Trump's attacks on them. Both Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell now have the worst numbers we've ever seen for them. Only 16% of voters approve of the job Ryan is doing to 62% who disapprove. A big part of that is even among Trump voters he has only a 30% approval rating with 52% disapproving of him. Ryan comes out looking popular in comparison to McConnell though. His approval rating is just 9%, with 61% of voters disapproving of him. Among Trump voters he receives just a 15% approval rating to 59% disapproving of him, not all that dissimilar from his 68% disapproval with Clinton voters. The possible pitfall for Trump with the attacks on GOP Congressional leaders is disincentivizing his base to go vote for them next year.

Their failed efforts on health care are a big part of what's causing Congressional Republicans problems. Only 25% of voters support the health care bill that was considered by Congress last month, to 57% who disapprove of it. Even among GOP voters there's less than majority support, with 48% in favor of it to 34% who are opposed. At this point only 33% of voters think the best path forward on health care is repealing Obamacare, to 57% who think it's keeping the current law and making fixes to it as necessary. Voters say by a 21 point margin that they're less likely to vote for a GOP member of Congress who supported the repeal bill- 46% are less likely to vote for such a person to 25% who are more likely to, with 22% saying it doesn't make a difference either way.

...[F]or the fourth month in a row we find a plurality of voters in support of impeaching Trump- 48% say he should be impeached to 41% who disagree. And there continues to be a significant yearning for a return to the days of President Obama- 52% of voters say they wish Obama was still President to only 39% who prefer having Trump in the White House.

Trump continues to trail both Bernie Sanders (51/38) and Joe Biden (51/39) by double digits in possible 2020 match ups. PPP never found Hillary Clinton up by more than 7 points on Trump in 2016. Sanders and Biden each win over 12-14% of the folks who voted for Trump last year. Also leading Trump in hypothetical contests at this point are Elizabeth Warren (45/40), Mark Cuban (42/38), and Cory Booker and Trump Twitter Target Richard Blumenthal (42/39). Trump ties Kamala Harris at 39% each and John Delaney at 38% each.

Generally speaking just 57% of Republicans want Trump to be the party's nominee again in 2020 to 29% who say they would prefer someone else. That 28 point margin for Trump against 'someone else' is the same as his 28 point lead over Mike Pence at 52/24. Both Ted Cruz (a 40 point deficit to Trump at 62/22) and John Kasich (a 47 point deficit to Trump at 68/21) are evidently weaker potential opponents than 'someone else.'

Schumer Prepares To Throw Away A Chance To Beat Dean Heller in Nevada With Another Garbage Blue Dog

The biggest electoral battle progressives have coming up is to help the Democrats win back the House, something that would likely stymie Trump’s toxic and destructive agenda. Sometimes the DCCC makes that next to impossible, recruiting “ex”-Republican conservatives-- like Brad Ashford-- and their newest kick: anti-Choice Democrats or worthless slugs who fit some identity politics formula. But there is no other ballgame right now-- it’s the House or bust. That’s why primaries are so, so crucial-- keeping the DCCC slugs recruited by anti-progressive fanatics Cheri Bustos and Denny Heck-- away from nominations and encouraging and supporting grassroots, values-driven progressive candidates like these men and women.

Conventional wisdom has it that the Senate is out of bounds for 2018. The Democrats blew their shot for the Senate by following Schumer and Tester’s diktat that only corruptible conservatives like Patrick Murphy (FL), Ted Strickland (OH), Katie McGinty (PA), Evan Bayh (IN), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ) and Patty Judge (IA) could win. They all lost. And those were contestable states. In 2018, fate has dealt the Democrats a bad table-- almost no winnable Senate races. No matter how unpopular Trump and McConnell are nationally, Roger Wicker, John Barrasso and Deb Fischer aren’t losing their seats in Mississippi, Wyoming and Nebraska. Instead, 11 Democrats have to defend seats in swing states or even red states-- Joe Manchin (WV), Joe Donnelly (IN), Heidi Heitkamp (ND), Bill Nelson (FL), Claire McCaskill (MO), Jon Tester (MT), Tammy Baldwin (WI), Sherrod Brown (OH), Tim Kaine (VA), Debbie Stabenow (MI), and Bob Casey (PA).

But Trump and McConnell (and Ryan and the GOP) are proving to be even more unpopular than anyone expected. Their overreach is breathtaking and the chances that all these Democrats can hold on is looking possible-- even utterly worthless slugs like Heitkamp and Manchin in die-hard Trump bastions. Yesterday the DSCC sent out an e-mail, “DSCC Targets Three Senate Republicans with Health-Care Ads.” The letter boasts that “voters in the home states of Senators Jeff Flake (AZ), Dean Heller (NV), and Ted Cruz (TX) will be seeing updated versions of our hard-hitting “The Price” ad-- asking what their senator’s health care plan will truly cost their constituents. It’s a weak and ineffective ad but the point is that the DSCC has identified 3 states they need to win if they are too have any chance to win back the Senate: Arizona, Nevada and Texas.

Arizona has no definitive Democratic candidate yet although there’s a strong buzz that the state House’s Assistant Minority Leader, Randall Friese, will run. (Other potential candidates include far right-wing Blue Dog Kyrsten Sinema and almost-as-bad loser Ann Kirkpatrick. Mark Kelly, a retired astronaut and husband of former conservative Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, is also talking about running. If Sinema or Kirkpatrick is the nominee, any chance of the Democrats winning back the Senate ends immediately.

In Texas, the most difficult stretch by far, the Democrats have as good as candidate as they’re going to find-- cerebral, principled and charismatic El Paso congressman Beto O’Rourke, a great contrast to Ted Cruz.

Today, though, let’s take a look at Nevada, the most likely Democratic pickup. Hillary beat Trump in Nevada 539,260 (47.9%) to 512,058 (45.5%) and on the same day, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto defeated the far better-known Joe Heck 521,994 (47.1%) to 495,079 (44.7%). The state has been trending blue and the GOP incumbent, Dean Heller, is not especially popular. A just-released PPP survey of the state’s voters shows 50% disapprove of Trump’s performance with only 44% approving. Worse yet for the GOP, Heller’s disapproval is 44% with a 31% approval. A full 25% of Nevada voters don’t know enough about him to even have an opinion. If the election were held today, though, he would lose to a generic Democrat, 46% to 39%.

TrumpCare is very unpopular and 45% of voters say that if Heller votes for it-- which is likely-- they will be “less likely” to vote for him in 2018. Only 27% of voters say they will be “more likely” to vote for him. Even among Trump voters only 61% support the direction Congress is going in in regard to healthcare-- and only a third of independents approve of TrumpCare, the swing voters who decide Nevada elections. When it comes to ending Medicaid expansion and cutting Medicaid, 59% of Nevada voters voters said they have very serious concerns-- and that includes 52% of independents and even 27% of Trump voters. It’s even worse for Republicans when voters are reminded that TrumpCare ends the guarantee of some basic services-- known as the essential health benefits-- 62% of voters have very serious concerns, including 51% of independents and 34% of Trump voters. Higher costs under TrumpCare concern 67% of voters, including 54% of independents, though just 41% of Trump voters. And not many people are happy that all these higher costs and worse service is all to lower taxes for the rich. That one concerns 62% of voters, including 57% of independents and 32% of Trumpists.

But it’s not a slam dunk. It looked like Nevada Democrats were coalescing around popular Congressman Ruben Kihuen as their nominee but now, somehow, the DSCC appears to be pushing another garbage candidate, Jacky Rosen, whose only shot of winning is if she’s swept along in an anti-Trump tsunami. To call her utterly worthless demeans the meaning of “utterly worthless.” No guts, no values, nothing whatsoever to offer anyone, Rosen is a careerist hack who joined the Blue Dogs and has run up one of the worst voting records of any Democrat in Congress. According to ProgressivePunch, her overall rating is a solid “F” and her crucial vote score is an abysmal 35.0. There are only 3 freshmen Democrats with worse scores, more Blue Dog garbage hacks Tom O’Halleran (AZ), Stephanie Murphy (FL) and Josh Gottheimer (NJ). Rosen doesn’t even deserve to be reelected to her House seat, let alone to be promoted to a Senate seat.

Politico reported that Rosen plans to announce her candidacy in “a couple of weeks.” 


The recruitment of Rosen has the strong imprint of former Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, who was entrusted by the party establishment to identify the strongest candidate to challenge Heller. Reid settled on Rosen, figuring that she’s a fresh face with little political baggage and would be the most formidable opponent, according to a person familiar with the matter.

After Reid settled on Rosen, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) “closed the deal” and talked to Rosen four or five times to convince her to run, that person said. Schumer's office declined to comment.

Jackie Rosen is the whole toilet-full of crap candidates rolled into one-- all the losers who Schumer and the DSCC foisted on the Democrats last time, from Patrick Murphy to Patty Judge and Ann Kirkpatrick, candidates Schumer insisted on-- fought against progressives to get the nominations for--and then abandoned in the face of a voting population that immediately rejected each one of them. Schumer can’t learn from his mistakes; his ego is way too big and his mind in too brittle.