Many Republican Candidates Are Paralyzed With Fear-- Fear Of Normal Voters On The One Hand And Fear Of Trump And His Element On The Other

 

Trump isn't dead yet and hasn't used his COVID diagnosis as an excuse for backing out of the race. He insists otherwise, but he was hurt badly by Tuesday's debate. This is very typical post-debate polling coverage: "Trump hurt himself more than his rival with Tuesday night's theatrics in what's been called the worst U.S. presidential debate in history."

Now, try to imagine the "Fake News" tantrum the criminally, clinically insane Donald must have thrown Wednesday night when he saw Gabe Sherman's Vanity Fair report, "The Family Is Worried Brad Will Start Talking": TrumpWorld Panics Over Debate Fiasco As Campaign Turmoil Mounts. It sounds pretty dire: "Over three days, the New York Times dropped a tax bombshell, Florida cops cuffed Brad Parscale, and the president just couldn’t help himself onstage. 'Trump didn’t win over any voters,' said a prominent Republican, 'and he pissed off a lot of people.'"

Sherman asserts that while the campaign is still assessing the political damage from the debate, particularly Trump's "refusal to condemn white supremacists," the Orange blot "didn't win over any voters, and he pissed off a lot of people."

Worse yet, "Republicans are resigned to the fact that Trump is unlikely-- or unwilling-- to course-correct. 'Trump thinks he won. He didn’t,' said another Republican with ties to the campaign. 'But does anyone have the balls to tell him that? No. They’d be fired.'"

Trump doesn’t accept the consensus that the debate was a disaster because, sources said, he was unabashedly himself. “The thing about the debate is people got to see why no one that has any integrity can work for Trump. This is what Trump is like in the Oval Office every day. It’s why [John] Kelly left. It’s why [Jim] Mattis quit,” said the prominent Republican. “Trump doesn’t let anyone else speak. He really doesn’t care what you have to say. He demeans people. He talks over them. And everyone around him thinks it’s getting worse.”

Inside Trumpworld there’s a view that the past week is an inflection point in the campaign. It started on Sunday night with the bombshell New York Times report that Trump paid just $750 in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017. “For Trump the Times story was worse than losing reelection,” said the second Republican. “If you had told Donald back in 2015 that his tax returns would be exposed and he’d have all these investigations, I guarantee you he wouldn’t have run.”

As the Times story lit up cable news and Twitter, news broke that Trump’s former campaign manager Brad Parscale had been taken into custody outside his Ft. Lauderdale home and hospitalized after threatening to commit suicide and allegedly beating his wife days prior. Police body camera footage showing an officer brutally tackling a shirtless, 6’8” Parscale to the pavement instantly became a visual metaphor for the chaos engulfing the Trump campaign. One campaign adviser I spoke with was shocked by the amount of force the police used to subdue and cuff Parscale. “If Brad had been Black, there would be riots all over the country,” the source said. (In fact, police have killed unarmed Black men in far less hostile situations.)

Parscale’s public meltdown happened while he is reportedly under investigation for stealing from the Trump campaign and the RNC. According to the source close to the campaign, the Trump family is worried that Parscale could turn on them and cooperate with law enforcement about possible campaign finance violations. “The family is worried Brad will start talking,” the source said.

And the shit show is just getting started... for Republicans who have earned-- and continue to earn-- every bit of it. Writing for the Washington Post, Robert Costa and Matt Viser reported that the aftermath of the debate "triggered a reckoning among Republicans on Wednesday about the incumbent’s incendiary remarks on white supremacy and his baseless claims of electoral fraud, with GOP officials privately expressing alarm about the fallout with key voters." Republican elected officials, though, were muted, tepid and largely non-existent "reflecting how the GOP remains convinced that an alliance with Trump and his voters is crucial for its survival. But hewing too close to him is also seen as a mistake by some Republicans, particularly for those who wish to court moderates and independent voters."

Utterly out-of-touch, brow furrowed, Susan Collins, who is losing her reelection bid to an uninspiring moderate Democrat, made the probably-fatal error of telling reporters that "There was fault on both sides. The interrupting on both sides, the name-calling was very unbecoming for a presidential debate." When pressed, she admitted it was "a mistake" for Donald to not condemn the Proud Boys and his other white supremicist supporters.

Tim Scott (R-SC) is the only black Republican in the Senate. (He was appointed.) He say Trump "misspoke" and "should correct it. If he doesn’t correct it, I guess he didn’t misspeak." That was about as close to a rebuke Donald got from a Republican senator-- and Scott isn't up for reelection in November. Donald's post-debate attempt at a "correction" was to lie to the media and claim he doesn't know who the Proud Boys are. "I mean, you’ll have to give me a definition, because I really don’t know who they are. I can only say they have to stand down. Let law enforcement do their work." Yeah, so I guess he didn't misspeak.

Trump’s comments did little to encourage Republicans about the political turbulence they face in the final stretch of the campaign as Trump seizes on matters of race and urban unrest and unfounded allegations of voter fraud.

“This election is drifting toward what feels like a blowout [victory for Biden], and there needs to be some type of event that changes that. The debate was a chance to change the direction, and while it might be too early to be seen, there is no real reason to believe it was a game-changer,” said Brendan Buck, a former top adviser to the past two Republican House speakers, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and John Boehner of Ohio.

Former senator Jeff Flake (R-AZ), a Trump critic who stays in touch with former colleagues, said the private alarm in Senate GOP circles “is palpable.”

“People are voting already, so they know it’s going to be tough to put forward a new narrative,” Flake said. “They’re more than a little worried because it feels like even if you go in a different direction, it’d be too little, too late. That’s devastating.”

Polling shows the GOP Senate majority at risk with strongholds in the Deep South, such as South Carolina and Georgia, highly competitive. A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman Jaime Harrison tied as Graham seeks a fourth term in the Senate.

One veteran Republican Senate strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are working on a Senate campaign, said, “We’re all kind of prepared to be responsible for our own performances and our own words. You’re not going to see anybody say it was a bad performance, but they’ll consider it like Trump’s really crazy tweets. They’ll say, ‘That’s not my kind of campaign, didn’t really see it.’”

The strategist added that several campaigns are already deliberating on how to address Proud Boys questions at upcoming Senate debates and are trying to figure out how to deflect the issue and shift to more favorable topics.

At the Capitol on Wednesday, where Senate Republicans are working swiftly to confirm Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, reactions ranged from venting about the debate to sidestepping challenges to Trump.

“It was awful,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) told reporters, while Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) offered a descriptive expletive.

“I was actually watching the Yankees,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD). When asked if he was disturbed by Trump’s response to the Proud Boys question, Rounds said, “He should have been very clear,” whether talking about “far-left” groups or “far-right” groups.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who is in a difficult reelection race, said of Trump’s handling of the Proud Boys question: “I’ll leave it to the president. I know he’s not racist. I’m sure he doesn’t approve of their activities.”

Like Collins, Tillis is being challenged by an uninspiring moderate-to-conservative establishment Democrat and, like Collins, Tillis is losing his reelection bid. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Cunningham ahead by a daunting 6 points. And the most recent poll, by YouGov for CBS News, sounds like a death knell for Tillis. Cunningham is beating him 48% to 38%-- ten points!

And right on cue, Sabato's Crystal Ball stepped a little closer to reality-- just a little-- in its predictions for November. Cory Gardner hasn't had a shot for reelection for over a year and Sabato's outfit seems to have almost figured it out, moving its rating from "leans Democratic" to "likely Democratic." On November 4th they will move it to "safe Democratic." They seem to be recognizing that Al Gross is going to beat Trumpist coward Dan Sullivan in Alaska, moving Sullivan's reelection bid from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." And in House races they made 12 changes-- all but one in favor of Democratic candidates. And the one was just a reflection of Sabato's unwillingness to understand what the nature of a wave is when even shit candidates like worthless New Dem T.J. Cox, are swept across the finish line by voters who want to see the enemy-- this year Republicans-- vanquished.





Sabato shows 30 Republican-held seats on the verge of flipping-- and that includes career-ending defeats for 18 House Republican incumbents. Blue America House candidates most likely to win next month-- according to Sabato's predictions-- are Jon Hoadley (MI-06), Kara Eastman (NE-02), Dana Balter (NY-24) and Mike Siegel (TX-10). The only Democrats Sabato sees in actual jeopardy are half a dozen Blue Dogs and New Dems: T.J. Cox (CA), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL), Collin Peterson (MN), Anthony Brindisi (NY), Max Rose (NY) and Kendra Horn (OK), the last 4 of whom the Democratic Party would be much better off without. My suggestion to people who want their contributions to go to candidates on the verge of winning-- and just using Sabato's criteria-- but who need that extra little push: click on the Blue America 2020 congressional thermometer on the right and give $10 each to Kara Eastman, Mike Siegel and Jon Hoadley. BONUS: here's Mike Siegel speaking at an online Bernie congressional fundraiser Wednesday evening:

Saving America Starts With Decimating The Republican Party In November

Saving America by Nancy Ohanian

If you watch right-wing media (or pay attention to Republican Party fake pollsters like Trafalgar or Rasmussen), you'd think Trump is tightening up the gap between himself and Biden. That isn't what I'm seeing in the legitimate polls. aYesterday a new one, from YouGov, commissioned by Yahoo News, was released showing Biden leads 49-39% among registered voters. "Trump," wrote Yahoo's Andrew Romano, "has fallen further behind Joe Biden following bombshell reports that the president knowingly misled Americans about the dangers of COVID-19 and privately disparaged dead U.S. soldiers as 'suckers' and 'losers.' The results suggest that a week of unrelenting and unflattering revelations about Trump-- from the Atlantic report on his alleged contempt for Americans wounded or killed in war (which appeared on Sept. 3) to Bob Woodward’s recordings of Trump admitting he downplayed the deadliness of COVID-19 (released on Sept. 9)-- has damaged the president’s standing with voters."





An incredible 15% of those who voted for Trump in 2016 say the Woodward news has changed their mind about Trump’s handling of the pandemic and 15% of voters overall said that the revelations from Woodward have made them less likely to vote for Trump in November. Although this is impacting former Trump voters, it is really impacting independents. 8% of 2016 Trump voters say they're voting for Biden this year.

If that holds (and if it is spread more or less evenly among states)-- and it is more likely to grow than diminish-- on election day, Trump will lose the key states he needs to be reelected: Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina, probably Georgia and Ohio and possibly even Texas.

Late last week Vanity Fair published a transcript of former GOP strategist Stuart Stevens being interviewed by Joe Hagan. It's worth reading the whole transcript. In summarizing it, Hagan wrote that "Stevens described the GOP under Donald Trump as a party of cynics, stooges, racists, and obsequious enablers whose profiles in cowardice bear an uncomfortable resemblance to 1930s Germany. 'When I talk to Republican politicians, I hear Franz von Papen,' he says, referencing the German chancellor who convinced Germans that so-called radical leftists were a far greater threat than Adolf Hitler. 'They all know that Trump is an idiot. They all know that he’s uniquely unqualified to be president. But they convinced themselves that he was a necessity... It is the combination of the anti-intellectualism, the anti-education elements of the Republican Party, and the anti-elite elements of the Republican Party, so-called, that have culminated in this toxic brew that is killing tens of thousands of Americans,' says Stevens, who recently joined the independent Never Trump organization the Lincoln Project. 'I mean, more Americans are going to die because of this combination of political beliefs than major wars. This virus [is] attacking Americans. And Donald Trump is making it a lot worse, and we all know this. But Republicans won’t even stand up to defend America.' Consequently, Stevens calls Trump a 'traitor' to his country. 'I really think he is against America,' he says, blaming the Republican Party for 'a complete collapse of responsibility that they had to defend democracy in America.'"

So not just Trump... the entire Republican Party. Hagan spoke with Stevens about his 71 year old Republican father: "Help me with something here. My dad is a conservative. He voted for Trump. He said he held his nose, he hated Hillary, the common story that you hear. And in your book, you talk about how the party and its media apparatus, Fox News and other like-minded people, have turned it into tribal-like sports where you’re just going to root for your team almost no matter what. There’s a sense of like, even if they see that he’s a horrible guy and that they might have made a colossal error, they’re going to deflect and project all the blame onto the media and the 'radical left.' We’ve seen this time and again. How can we get my dad out of that?"

It’s dangerous for your dad to go outside now. Your dad’s not going to be going to a football game. It’s dangerous for him to go shopping. Donald Trump has made the world more dangerous for your father in a very tangible, real [way]. It didn’t have to be this way. It’s not this way in Canada. If your dad goes across the border to Ottawa, he’s going to be a lot safer. And it’s not genetic. It’s government. And it’s not conservative or liberal. It is the combination of the anti-intellectualism, the anti-education elements of the Republican Party, and the anti-elite elements of the Republican Party, so-called, that have culminated in this toxic brew that is killing tens of thousands of Americans. I mean, more Americans are going to die because of this combination of political beliefs than major wars. This virus [is] attacking Americans. And Donald Trump is making it a lot worse, and we all know this. But Republicans won’t even stand up to defend America.

What drives me crazy about this is you take my dad-- I’m older than you, my dad fought in World War II, South Pacific, 28 island landings, and like hundreds of thousands of guys came back, never really talked about it. My uncle was grievously wounded in Europe, shot seven times, never really recovered. They took this legacy and handed it off to the current group of politicians. And the Republicans have completely squandered that. And it’s a disgrace. Courage isn’t standing up to Donald Trump to defend Americans. Courage is getting out of the boat when the guy in front of you gets shot. And they don’t have the courage to stand up to some fat, ridiculous imbecile from Queens. And it’s shameful. It should be their legacy. They are killing their neighbors to defend Donald Trump. I’m very comfortable calling Trump a traitor because I really think he is against America, what it means to be an American. I don’t think these Republican politicians-- I know a lot of them, I helped elect a lot of them, they’re good people. If you’re stranded on the side of the road with a flat tire, they’d stop and help you in a heartbeat. If they lived next door to you, they’d be a really good neighbor. They’re not mean people. But there’s something here that has been a complete collapse of responsibility that they had to defend democracy in America. And they failed.

...I came across the stats: of Americans 15 and under, the majority are nonwhite. So odds are looking really good they’re going to turn 18 and still be nonwhite. And what does that mean for the Republican Party? It’s a death sentence if the party doesn’t change, and the party has no desire to change.

I think there’s really three parties now in America: there’s two parties in the Democratic Party and then there’s a Conservative Party and the Republican Party. I don’t think the Republican Party is going to be very relevant for a long time. I think we’re at a period when we’re going to be in for center-left government. Probably that center-left government goes too far at some point and some logically coherent, moral, and intellectually defensible center-right opposition will emerge. But it’s not going to happen with these clowns like Josh Hawley and [Ted] Cruz. These are people who have made themselves ridiculous. Nikki Haley praising Charlie Kirk. These are people that faced a moment and the moment defeated them. I can’t tell you who it will be. But you can’t negotiate with Trump.

Kiss Of Death Endorsements: Trump And Pelosi

I know I don't have to interpret that Twitter poll for you, although if you don't know who Shahid Buttar is, he's the progressive Democrat who, along with Nancy Pelosi, came out of the March jungle primary and will face her one-on-one in November. (You can contribute to Shahid's campaign here, as you can see, the only candidate endorsed by this blog.)

After Pelosi exhibited startling, even breath-taking hypocrisy by endorsing Joe Kennedy III who is challenging incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey for his Massachusetts seat, just 6.8% of respondents said her endorsement will influence them to favor Kennedy or favor him more. On the other hand... well you can see.

Most Republican senators aren't asking for Trump's endorsement. Like Pelosi's, an endorsement by Trump is just toxic-- especially among independents. Sure, in states or districts that are so heavily Republican, an endorsement from Trump or Pence or Mitch McConnell would be a net plus... and in deep red House districts it makes sense to ask for an endorsement. Senate seats are different. Trump is still popular in Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma and the Dakotas but don't expect to see Trump endorsements being ballyhooed by incumbent senators where independent voters determine winners. I don't know what John Cornyn (R-TX) is going to do but I would bet that Susan Collins (ME), Cory Gardner (CO), Thom Tillis (NC), and Joni Ernst (IA) aren't going to be advertising-- at least not to a general audience on TV or radio-- that Trump is backing them.

On the other hand, in Alaska, where nearly half the voters are independents, there is a lot of ballyhooing of Trump's endorsement of Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan-- all of it from Independent Al Gross who is running on the Democratic Party line. I spoke with Gross' campaign manager yesterday and he was almost gleeful to have seen Trump endorse Sullivan. "I hope President Trump comes up here to campaign for Dan," he said. "A majority of the state doesn't approve of him, and with his help, we can make that 60%!" He sent me this:

Yesterday, Collins announced that part-time Maine resident George W. Bush-- remember, relative to Trump and for many people, the stink has worn off now-- has endorsed her-- his first endorsement of 2020. "The nod from the former president, whose politics appear centrist by Trump-era standards, may nudge some traditional Republicans into Collins’ corner," wrote David Sharp for the Associated Press. "Trump has not endorsed the Maine senator, whose race is among a handful critical to Republicans’ hopes of keeping control of the Senate, where they have a 53-47 advantage. Collins, meanwhile, has not said whether she intends to vote for Trump." Fellow New England Republican, Governor Phil Scott (R-VT) made an announcement yesterday that leaves no doubt he doesn't want and would not accept Trump's endorsement: "I won't be voting for President Trump... I have not decided, at this point, whether to cast a vote for former Vice President Biden... something I would consider."

After Pelosi's endorsement of Joe Kennedy III infuriated progressives-- not as much because of the pick as because of Pelosi's disgusting hyocrisy-- AOC sent her followers a fundraising letter from her own campaign but for for Markey, a staffer explaining the double standard:

Last year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee instituted a new blacklist-- targeting staffers and companies who worked for primary challengers. Unsurprisingly, that overwhelmingly targeted people who worked with progressives.

Now, it’s clear: That blacklist was never just meant to "protect incumbents." It was meant to block progressive leaders from being elected, like Ayanna Pressley, Jamaal Bowman, Cori Bush, or even Alexandria in 2018.

...Markey is not taking the safe route. He’s causing good trouble in Washington, fighting for international peace, a Green New Deal, and dismantling ICE. These are hard fights to win. Many look at them and back down. But not Ed Markey.

Markey is listening to the next generation of leaders-- the young folks on the ground working day in and day out to change the world-- and does everything in his power to amplify their voices on Capitol Hill. If Washington had more leaders like Ed Markey, we’d be a lot better off.

Scary that Pelosi is no longer self-aware enough to understand that her endorsement really is a kiss of death in most places in the country-- even in as blue a state as Massachusetts. Isn't she supposed to be retiring now and passing along her seat to her daughter? You know, the dynasty thing-- like the Kennedys.

Republicans Starting To Panic As Public Anger Grows Over The Post Office

This week's most predictible endorsement went to Biden and Harris yesterday from the National Association of Letter Carriers, a 300,000 member union. With Trump and the congressional Republicans full steam ahead on trying to destroy the post office-- Trump so he can prevent widespread voting and the congressional Republicans as part of their privatization mania.

It isn't just the big postal workers union endorsement-- this whole war against the post office is hurting Trump. Otherthan doctrinaire Republicans, the public doesn't like it. As Jonathan Bernstein put it in his Bloomberg News column yesterday "The thing is that Trump, by opposing money for the U.S. Postal Service and supporting 'reforms' that have slowed it down, is just handing former Vice President Joe Biden yet another easy campaign issue. Democrats may or may not be able to overturn new procedures that are causing significant problems, but they certainly can make sure that anyone who’s waiting on a letter or a package thinks that Trump is responsible when it doesn’t show up on time. And that’s not the kind of thing politicians want voters to blame them for."

Erin Cox, Elise Viebeck, Jason Bogage a d Christopher Ingham reported that Trump's corrupted Postal Service warned 46 states-- as it slows down mail deliveries-- that some votes sent my mail may not be counted. "Anticipating an avalanche of absentee ballots, the U.S. Postal Service recently sent detailed letters to 46 states and D.C. warning that it cannot guarantee all ballots cast by mail for the November election will arrive in time to be counted... The letters sketch a grim possibility for the tens of millions of Americans eligible for a mail-in ballot this fall: Even if people follow all of their state’s election rules, the pace of Postal Service delivery may disqualify their votes. The Postal Service’s warnings of potential disenfranchisement came as the agency undergoes a sweeping organizational and policy overhaul amid dire financial conditions." Those dire financial conditions were entirely and purposefully created by conservatives.

"Cost-cutting moves," the Post quartet continued, "have already delayed mail delivery by as much as a week in some places, and a new decision to decommission 10 percent of the Postal Service’s sorting machines sparked widespread concern the slowdowns will only worsen. Rank-and-file postal workers say the move is ill-timed and could sharply diminish the speedy processing of flat mail, including letters and ballots."

Yesterday, when asked by Ayman Mohyeldin on MSNBC if the American people will have a free, fair and credible election in November, Pelosi say "Not if the president has anything to do with it... a domestic assault on our Constitution."

Petrified of the growing anger of voters-- and his open conference-- Kevin McCarthy lied his ass off, telling the public that Republicans do not support withholding funding from the Postal Service. "The Postal Service will have the funding that it needs. We will make sure of that. We want to make sure we have an accurate election. I think any Republican that gets their ballot in the mail should vote and make sure their vote is counted." People are wise to his word games as he licks Trump's boots, as even members of his own caucus are saying now.

Jessica Piper reported for the Bangor Daily News that Susan Collins-- losing her reelection bid and absolutely desperate to show she isn't joined-at-the-hip to Trump (which she is)-- found something she can oppose him on. Trying to sound like she just woke up and is suddenly on Mainers' side, she said that "efforts by the U.S. Postal Service to cut costs could backfire amid reported mail delays in Maine and across the country and reiterated support to increase funding to the embattled agency." Has she told Trump and McConnell?

Mitt Romney, somewhat more credibly than Collins, broke with Trump on this too, telling the Sutherland Institute that "politicians"-- a reference to McConnell and Trump-- "attacking the vote by mail system are threatening global democracy but stopped short of criticizing President Donald Trump, who has been openly against an expected surge of mail-in ballots. The United States must stand as an example to more fragile democratic nations to show that elections can be held in a free and fair manner, Romney said. He urged the federal government to make every effort to ensure that people are able to vote in the general election this November... Romney said he has seen no evidence that voting by mail has led to fraud and that this voting method may be even more secure than electronic voting because it’s less likely to invite hacking interference by foreign entities. He said he would support providing additional funds to states to strengthen their voting systems."

And this is the letter my friend Rod wrote to each of them this morning. Maybe you want to consider doing one like it too?

Gentlemen of the USPS Board of Governors:

Mr. DeJoy is engaged in a blatantly partisan exercise to cripple the institution you oversee ahead of November 3. With it, he seeks to effectively destroy American democracy. It is incumbent upon you to intervene to halt this treasonous activity.

Please do your job and remove him immediately!

One very concerned citizen,

Rod Colburn

P.S. You each appear to be white males. You don’t look at all like America, do you?!

Stooges

The first time I recall ever having heard of Jennifer Horn was in 2008 when she ran for Congress against Paul Hodes (D-NH). In 2011 the very conservative Horn was elected chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party. No fan of Trump, though, she was a founder of the Lincoln Project and serves as a communications stagey consultant for the group-- in other words therapy her to write anti-Trump hit pieces like the one that was published by USA Today, Why Trump's Republican Senate enablers must be ousted this fall: Former NH GOP chair, yesterday. It was about Trump Stooge, the ad (up top) that the Lincoln Project produced and is running in Maine, an ad that is extremely damaging to Susan Collins.

"The Lincoln Project," wrote Horn, "generated strong criticism within Republican circles last week for 'going after' a member of the Republican majority in the Senate. We had released an ad comparing Sen. Susan Collins unfavorably to past senators from her state of Maine, including Margaret Chase Smith-- best known for being one of the few Republicans to stand up to Joe McCarthy and McCarthyism. Chase Smith was fearless and will be forever remembered for her 'Declaration of Conscience' speech in which she called out national leadership and declared the rights to protest, criticize and hold independent thoughts as basic principles of 'Americanism.' It is hard for any serious student of history to deny the common themes of McCarthyism and Trumpism. Both are constructed on a foundation of 'us vs. them,' suspicion of those who were not born in America, attempts to silence protest and dissent, and demonizing those who hold independent or unpopular beliefs. Margaret Chase Smith was a heroine of freedom. Susan Collins is not. And neither is any other Republican currently serving in the Senate, with the exception of Utah's Mitt Romney."

Mitt Romney? A hero of freedom? I don't think so, but remember, these #NeverTrump conservatives are... conservatives. They don't like Trump because they find him odious in the way most Americans do, but also because they judge him to not be a conservative.

Living in fear of a mean Trump tweet

The Republican majority in the Senate has become nothing more than protection racket for a president who has repeatedly declared he would accept foreign assistance in his campaigns and was impeached for trying to get a foreign leader to help him win.

And the Republican Party is angry that some of us refuse to go along for the ride. That includes the Lincoln Project, which is dedicated to the electoral defeat of Trump and Trumpism.

Donald Trump’s three-and-a-half years in office have been a relentless assault on the foundational principles of American democracy. He has driven the divides within our communities, undermined our ability to stand as an example to other nations, and battered our Constitution to within an inch of its life.

The president has sought to isolate our nation from our allies, cozied up to tyrants and dictators and defended white nationalists. He has attacked the free press and our right to protest and fired a military colonel for telling the truth about Trump’s corruption.

Last year, in a shocking action during these times of confirmed, corrupt attempts by America’s enemies to influence the outcome of our presidential elections, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, a Tennessee Republican, blocked a requirement that political campaigns report offers of assistance from foreign nations to the FBI. Trump thanked her publicly.

Now he is so mismanaging our response to a global pandemic that we have lost over 155,000 American lives.

Rather than strengthening their resolve to preserve the great ideal of America, Republican senators have become progressively more anemic in their response to this wannabe strongman of a president. They have become puny and faint-hearted, spineless and weak-willed. They have proven they are not worthy of the constitutional responsibilities bestowed upon them by their election to the esteemed United States Senate.

Worst of all, for over a year, Trump has ignored U.S. intelligence assessments that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be paying bounties to the Taliban for killing our soldierson the battlefield. Every day, hundreds of thousands of America’s sons and daughters wake up prepared to give their lives in defense of our nation, in defense of you and me and our families, and Republican senators remain feeble and limp before this president, living in fear of a mean tweet.

No heroic senators running this year

Throughout our history, our leaders have been the most eloquent and persuasive voices for freedom in the world. From Thomas Jefferson’s Declaration of Independence to Abraham Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation to Martin Luther King’s “content of character” speech, they have woven together the story of independence and freedom, inspiring Americans to rise up together, to fight and sacrifice for together, in defense of what makes our nation unique among all others.

When freedom and Americanism fall under attack by our own president, it is incumbent upon our leaders, regardless of party, to become defenders of liberty and voices for freedom. Margaret Chase Smith was one such American leader, responding to the attacks on liberty from within our own country; her voice will be heard throughout history as a guardian of freedom and democracy.

There are no such heroic voices among the Republican senators up for reelection today.

They have been cowed by this president. They have been silent when the country needs them to speak, weak when our nation needs their strength. And every one of them should expect to be held accountable one way or another. The Susan Collins ad will not be the Lincoln Project's last one reminding voters of these Republican senators' fealty and weakness.

Voting against a bill that would have failed anyway, opposing a procedural motion and dismissing the president’s threatening tweets as “jokes” does not excuse their feebleness in face of the grave danger Trump poses.

Elections are about leadership and accountability. Republicans will pay a price for lacking both.

Yesterday, Kyle Kondik at Sabato's Crystal Ball listed the dozen most likely Senate seats to flip, in ranked order. My list is a little different-- and a bit less optimistic . Democrats are not going to beat Cornyn (TX) and Ossoff is too weak a candidate to seriously take on Perdue (GA). The other Georgia Senate race is a jungle ballot with the top 2 candidates facing off January 5 if no candidate gets 50%, which isn't possible. In fact, there's a chance-- albeit a slim one-- that the runoff will be between appointed, corrupt incumbent Kelly Loeffler (R) and crackpot wingnut Doug Collins (R) with Raphael Warnock (D) and the son of the odious Joe Lieberman splintering the Democratic vote. Anyway, here's my list of most endangered to least endangered (albeit still endangered):

• Martha McSally (R-AZ)
• Cory Gardner (R-CO)
• Doug Jones (D-AL)
• Susan Collins (R-ME)
• Thom Tillis (R-NC)
• Steve Daines (R-MT)
• Joni Ernst (R-IA)
• Dan Sullivan (R-AK)

And, if God intercedes to teach the Republicans a lesson: David Perdue (GA) and Lindsey Graham (SC).

Why Are Republicans So Afraid Of Vote By Mail

There hasn't been any public polling from Nevada available lately. The last one I found was a Fox poll in January that showed Trump down by 8 points (47-39%). Unless Nevada is entirely in its own universe, that chasm is much wider now. In 2016, Hillary beat Trump 539,260 (47.92) to 512,058 (46.50%), kind of close. However, since Trump was inaugurated, had already decreased by 21 points in February, 54% disapproving and 43% approving. Since then, 51,199 Nevadans have contracted COVID (994 more yesterday) and 847 have died (12 more yesterday). There are 16,622 cases per million Nevadans and that is very high-- and rapidly increasing. The idea of Nevada being won by Trump-- or even being as close as it was in 2016-- is preposterous.

The non-Sheldon Adelson Adelson-owned paper, the Las Vegas Sun published a piece yesterday reporting that on Monday morning Trump claimed-- via tweet-- that Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak and the legislature, controlled by Democrats, are "using COVID to steal the state" election, a day after the Senate passed a bill that had already passed the Assembly, requiring all Nevada voters to receive mail-in ballots-- even Republican and neo-Nazi Trump supporters. No Republicans passed the bill in either chamber.

More people voting scares the crap out of Trump and out of conservatives and Republicans in general. Trump says that a big vote by mail turnout all make "it impossible for Republicans to win the state." Maybe he and the Republicans should do something that makes voters want to support them.

On Monday morning, Josh Dawsey and Amy Gardner reported for the Washington Post that "Trump’s unfounded attacks on mail balloting are discouraging his own supporters from embracing the practice, according to polls and Republican leaders across the country, prompting growing alarm that one of the central strategies of his campaign is threatening GOP prospects in November. Multiple public surveys show a growing divide between Democrats and Republicans about the security of voting by mail, with Republicans saying they are far less likely to trust it in November. In addition, party leaders in several states said they are encountering resistance among GOP voters who are being encouraged to vote absentee while also seeing the president describe mail voting as 'rigged' and 'fraudulent.' As a result, state and local Republicans across the country fear they are falling dramatically behind in a practice that is expected to be key to voter turnout this year. Through mailers and Facebook ads, they are racing to promote absentee balloting among their own."

Pity. Requests for absentee ballots from Democrats are outpacing requests from Republicans by huge numbers-- even in red states but especially in swing states like North Carolina. Maybe Trump's animosity has something to with him being too stupid to figure out where or how to vote (2004)... except by mail:





Paul Constant, writing Sunday for Business Insider, noted that "When it comes to risk of coronavirus infection, vote-by-mail is the safest available option. If you can walk to your mailbox and back twice without encountering unmasked strangers, your entire voting experience is virtually guaranteed to be COVID-free. It's also easy, trackable, and transparent... So why wouldn't every state adopt a vote-by-mail system this year?"

Zach Silk, president of Civic Ventures was definitive about the problem: "First and foremost, let's be very clear that this is a problem perpetrated by one particular party, which is really the Senate Republicans."

For months, Trump has cast doubt on the reliability of mail-in ballots, presumably in an effort to throw the legitimacy of a potential Biden win into question. But "as much as Trump wants to make vote-by-mail a partisan issue, in most of the country it's not a partisan issue," Silk adds. Several red states, including Utah, have robust vote-by-mail systems, he explains, and he points out that the two demographics that have traditionally embraced voting by mail, "old people and the military, are two very strong Republican voting blocs. This shouldn't be partisan. We should be able to figure this out."

In fact, Silk says, some states are in the process of establishing safe voting systems right now. "Ohio is doing interesting things [to promote voting by mail], and Iowa is going to mail applications to everyone in the state" to encourage mail-in ballots.

Silk, a veteran campaign manager and political strategist, admits that Republican interference in elections is "the one thing that keeps me up at night about this election, the one that makes me the most nervous-- the inability of people to participate."

Uribe agrees that "we should enfranchise as many people as possible and make it as safe as possible for everyone" to vote, but she adds that "vote-by-mail is also not a panacea for this election."

...[V]ote-by-mail is by far the most reliable voting system, and it's worked in both blue and red states. But no system is entirely secure. Without serious, nonpartisan oversight, it's possible for Republicans to disenfranchise young people and people of color from voting by mail. Ballots from Republican strongholds with high densities of traditionally Democratic-voting populations, for example, are likely to see more signature challenges and larger rejection rates.

And Trump's continual assault on the system means that the American people will have to be especially vigilant against vote-tampering this year. Some experts believe that if partisan saboteurs were to commit an all-out assault on vote-by-mail results, "we can lose up to a five-percent election margin based on rejection rates of certain ballots-- and that five percent is something we can't afford to lose," Uribe said. That's why she believes that we need a more diverse selection of volunteer poll workers, as a safeguard against disenfranchisement.

It's easy to fall into the lazy trap of believing that voting is a once-a-year, or even a once-every-four-years, responsibility. But civic engagement demands more from us-- particularly in a time when democratic institutions are under attack.

"If you're looking to take near-term action" to promote voting by mail, Silk said, "you should be reaching out to your lawmakers-- especially if you have a Republican Senator in your state-- to communicate with them how crucial it is to protect the vote."

In other words, if you want your voice to be heard in November, you've also got to use your voice right now.

Tuesday Late Night Bonus Track: Nevada has no Senate race this year; but Maine sure does. And you know exactly who Trump wants to see win, right? Cauvin did a great job for the Lincoln Project on this one:

The Trumpanzee Regime Is A Clown Show That Has Ceased Being Entertaining

Damn! I wish the Lincoln Project would do some ads like this Susan Collins hit piece above targeting Trump enablers in the House like Michael McCaul and Roger Williams in Texas, and Ken Calvert and Doug LaMalfa in California (Fox News and the Corona, CA Police Department practically did all the work to set up the Calvert one already).

There's so much material to work with-- even beyond the whole enabler thing. Like how about this report from Forbes yesterday that as of tomorrow over 40% of American renters will be in danger of being evicted. That's when 25 million unemployed people will stop receiving weekly $600 federal enhancements to their unemployment checks. Mitch McConnell waited for the last second to announce they can get $200 instead or nothing. And McConnell knew it would be coming at the exact moment when the Federal Eviction Moratorium expired, placing renters in extreme jeopardy of losing their homes. Niall McCarty wrote that "Combined with the cut in unemployment payments, it is likely to create the perfect storm for U.S. renters. An analysis from global advisory firm Stout Risius Ross estimates that more than 40% of renter households in the U.S. are going to experience rental shortfall during the Covid-19 crisis with just under 12 million facing eviction over the next four months alone. Around 17 million are likely to be impacted throughout the pandemic. There states likely to be worst impacted include beet red states like West Virginia, Mississippi, Tennessee and Louisiana (as well as electorally crucial, swingy Florida). It's worth noting that Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana and Florida are also among the worst hit by Trump's pandemic.

The fact that swing state voters are telling pollsters that want to see that $600 weekly unemployment check enhancement extended-- the one the congressional Republicans want to shrink to $200-- makes a series of ads on it all the more compelling. Change Research asked voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and they overwhelmingly supportall the Democratic objectives for the next bailout and the only one the Republicans care about-- corporate immunity from law suits-- is the one they reject. Look at this graphic!

Yesterday, Politico reporter Ally Mutnik noted that GOP House members who thought they had nothing to worry about are starting to fret (also sweat). "Privately," she wrote, "some party strategists concede it’s a much grimmer picture, with as many as 20 Republican seats at risk of falling into Democratic hands... There's a growing fear that Trump’s plummeting popularity in the suburbs could threaten their candidates in traditionally favorable districts, and that their party's eagerness to go on offense might leave some underfunded incumbents and open GOP-held seats unprotected. Internal Democratic surveys in recent weeks have shown tight races in once-solid GOP seats in Indiana, Texas, Michigan, Ohio and Montana that President Donald Trump carried handily 2016-- data that suggest the battleground is veering in a dangerous direction for the GOP.

Among the Republican House members not voluntarily retiring most likely to be not showing up in Congress in 2021 are John Katko and possibly Lee Zeldin in New York, Don Bacon in Nebraska, Mike Garcia in California, Chip Roy, Michael McCaul, Roger Williams, and possibly Van Taylor and Ron White in Texas, Steve Chabot in Ohio, Richard Hudson in North Carolina, Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania, Don Young in Alaska, Jim Hagedorn in Minnesota, David Schweikert in Arizona... And there are a whole slew of GOP retirements where seats are absolutely flipping including those currently held by Mark Walker (NC), George Holding (NC), Peter King (NY), Will Hurd (TX), Kenny Marchant (TX), Rob Woodall (GA), Susan Brooks (IN), Greg Gianforte (MT) and maybe even Ted Yoho's and Duncan Hunter's seats in Florida and California!

Why? Why? Why? Look at this CNN screen capture from yesterday. You think voters want more of this?

Trump will need to get rid of Fauci when he declares that some bogus "vaccine" is the real thing and stages a TV event of him ingesting it. Maybe Stella Immanuel, a deranged homophobic religious-lunatic from Cameroon who got a medical "degree" in Nigeria, is exactly who he's been looking for. Will Sommer wrote at the Daily Beast that Trump loves that she endorses hydroxychloroquine and agrees with him that face masks aren’t necessary. This insane person: "Fellow Americans. How long are we going to allow the enemy to take over our beloved nation. How long are we going to allow the gay agenda, secular humanism, Illuminati and the demonic New World Order to destroy our homes, families and the social fiber of America. It is only the church that was given the mandate by the creator of the universe to thread upon serpents and scorpions." Trump and Trump, Jr. have retweeted this nutcase:





Imagine her spicing up the daily coronavirus reports! I wonder if she will also take the opportunity to talk about some of her other fields of expertise, like "alien DNA and the physical effects of having sex with witches and demons in your dreams... She alleges alien DNA is currently used in medical treatments, and that scientists are cooking up a vaccine to prevent people from being religious. And, despite appearing in Washington, D.C. to lobby Congress on Monday, she has said that the government is run in part not by humans but by 'reptilians' and other aliens."

Immanuel gave her viral speech on the steps of the Supreme Court at the “White Coat Summit,” a gathering of a handful of doctors who call themselves America’s Frontline Doctors and dispute the medical consensus on the novel coronavirus. The event was organized by the right-wing group Tea Party Patriots, which is backed by wealthy Republican donors.

In her speech, Immanuel alleges that she has successfully treated hundreds of patients with hydroxychloroquine, a controversial treatment Trump has promoted and says he has taken himself. Studies have failed to find proof that the drug has any benefit in treating COVID-19, and the Food and Drug Administration in June revoked its emergency authorization to use it to treat the deadly virus, saying it hadn’t demonstrated any effect on patients’ mortality prospects.

Señor Trumpanzee was grilled about her at his fake-news conference and he got so freaked out that the abruptly ended the farcical conference and deleted his retweet:

"Mr. President, the woman that you said is a great doctor in that video that you retweeted last night said masks don't work and there is a cure for Covid-19, both of which health experts say is not true. She's also made videos saying that doctors make medicine using DNA from aliens, and that they're trying to create a vaccine to make you immune from becoming religious," [CNN's Caitlin] Collins asked.

The CNN reporter went on to press Trump: "It's misinformation."

"I don't know which country she comes from, but she said that she's had tremendous success with hundreds of different patients," Trump said. "And I thought her voice was an important voice, but I know nothing about her."

When Collins asked a follow-up question about Immanuel's dismissal of wearing face masks-- which Trump himself advocated last week-- the President walked away from the podium, though on Wednesday he continued to say he was "very impressed" by Immanuel.

Although Trump has frequently spread false and misleading information over the course of the pandemic-- while downplaying advice issued by the government's top medical experts-- his decision to amplify Immanuel raises fresh questions about the administration's messaging and pandemic response. It also gives her ideas a significant platform and risks lending credibility to someone who has made a number of dangerous claims in the past.

I'm guessing that the country is ready for a change away from all this now.

Abscess by Chip Proser

#NeverTrump Republicans Will Likely Make A Real Contribution To Defeating Him And His Enablers

So far this year, some of my favorite campaign ads were done by the Lincoln Project, virulently anti-Trump Republicans who have lately turned their fire-power against vulnerable Trump enablers in the Senate, like Martha McSally (R-AZ) and Thom Tillis (R-NC). I'm hearing all kinds of buzz that they'll be turning their guns on Cory Gardner (R-CO), Susan Collins (R-ME), Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Miss McConnell (R-KY), David Perdue (R-GA), Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Steve Daines (R-MT). They're doing a noticeably better job than the DSCC!

Yesterday Al Hunt wrote a piece for for The Hill, #NeverTrump Republicans-- Fringe Or A Force To Be Reckoned With?, speculation that #NeverTrump groups and politicians infuriate Señor T and "may gain traction in the election year." Unaware that MSNBC is crawling with anti-Trump Republicans, he suggests starting with the far less influential The Bulwark, which he described as "an online site and podcast directed by a Wisconsin conservative Charlie Sykes and including luminaries from the right like Bill Kristol, who was the editor of the Weekly Standard. It pummels the president's ineptitude and [lack of] integrity and his enablers."

The “Lincoln Project” brigade-- led by longtime Republicans like George Conway (his wife is Trump's counselor), Steve Schmidt, who once was a top aide to John McCain, and John Weaver, who was a top aide to Ohio Gov. John Kasich-- have run mocking negative ads that went viral after infuriating Trump.

There have been no tougher critiques of the Trump presidency than those written by conservative columnists Michael Gerson, George Will, Max Boot and Pete Wehner.

Mind you, none of these critics on the right have become big government, wealth redistributing left wingers. If Joe Biden and a Democratic Congress were to be elected this November, most of these people will be among their most articulate critics.

But they know the traditional conservative values of limited government, free markets and global leadership aren't in this president's vocabulary. They resent that their philosophical mentor William F. Buckley has been replaced in Trump's Republican Party by Sean Hannity.

“We can see how his con works," Charlie Sykes told me, “how he manipulates conservative memes and exploits the worst and darkest elements of the right. We're the ones calling out his bullshit because we know it's bullshit.”

Sykes was a popular Wisconsin conservative radio talk show host and author until Trump was elected. He left and wrote a book, How the Right Lost its Mind. And he founded The Bulwark.

Bulwark isn't just headlines and quick hits-- most pieces are well documented and devastating. One of the lead writers is Tim Miller, who was Jeb Bush's communications director.

On March 25, Miller laid out the timeline of the president's handling of the pandemic. It documented how Trump ignored the early advice of experts-- Republicans-- to vastly expand testing and obtain hospital supplies which soon would be essential. This was one of the earliest and most comprehensive accounts of the massive failure.

Most recently Miller weighed in on the ludicrous “Obamagate” conspiracy hoax, Trump's charge that the former president and his top officials illicitly sought to fix the last presidential election and then to undermine Trump's presidency.

Exhibit A is Trump's former national security adviser Michael Flynn, whom these conspirators claim was framed when he plead guilty-- on multiple occasions-- to lying to federal officials. William Barr, the attorney general of Trump's dreams, now seeks to drop all charges against Flynn.

A short reprise: Flynn got $45,000 from Russian state television, sat next to Vladimir Putin at a 2015 Moscow dinner and had an inappropriate conversation with the Russian ambassador at the end of the Obama presidency. Then-- when that call was revealed-- he lied to Vice President Mike Pence about it.

Why wouldn't the FBI want to interview him? They did, and he lied to them too.

Nobody forced Flynn to lie. Flynn is a serial liar.

The mere discussion of “Obamagate” is a travesty but, Miller notes, it's vintage Trump. His entire history in business and politics is to “create a preferred universe of convenient facts, then insist they are true, no matter what.”

It seems nearly certain that the children of Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be an issue going into November, and The Bulwark has gone there too.

These anti-Trump conservative activists are making their mark. What remains is whether former top Trump officials or Republican office-holders will enter the fray. If so, they could affect a few voters on the margins, like college educated white men, who went for Trump, 53 percent to 39 percent, last time.

The ex-Trump aides who've turned on him don't matter. One who might, though, is former Defense Secretary James Mattis. Several people who know him say he cringes at the notion of a second Trump term, but the four-star Marine general has resisted weighing in on presidential politics.

A few retired Republican office-holders, like conservative Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, will come out against Trump. Others, like former New Hampshire Governor and Senator Judd Gregg, are mortified by this president; in a recent column Gregg said Biden is the antithesis of Trump-- “decent, fair, substantive and well-informed.” But in an interview with me, Gregg suggested the Democratic nominee's leftward lurch concerns him.

The long-shot blockbuster would be George W. Bush.

It's no secret he and Trump have a mutual contempt for one another. If a former Republican president-- the head of an influential Republican brand for decades-- supports a Democratic candidate, it would send shock waves.

It's very unlikely-- but keep an eye on it.

My guess is that yesterday the Lincoln Project released this brand new clip on Brad Parscale, Trump's campaign manger, to make Trumpanzee's ears and eyes bleed. It's a doozy, not so much for the general public as for Trump and his cronies and for #NeverTrumpers everywhere-- and for all times. This has got to be Steve Schmidt's work! Or maybe Schmidt and Weaver. They really want to get under his skin and make him do something idiotic. Would I love to be able to hear Trump's reaction when he sees this one!

Trump is sinking poll numbers for GOP senators and House members. Some of these people were never comfortable with him to begin with. Are they willing to see their careers flushed down the toilet now by backing them? Do they even have any choice? Imagine Maine Senator Susan Collins breaks with Trump. Democrats are unlikely to vote for her but the independent voters who have backed away from her could be wooed back. Probably some Republicans would stick with her but many on the right-- Trump and LePage partisans-- would abandon her. Take Lewiston. There are 23,937 registered voters-- 42.6% Democrats, 34.9% independent and 17.3% Republican. Denouncing Trump would be a good move there. Same in neighboring Auburn (15,463 registered voters-- 39.9% independents, 32.4% Dems, 23.3% Republicans). But what about Caribou and Presque Isle, the two biggest towns in Aroostook County? Caribou's voters are 38.1% independent, 29.9% Democrat and 29.7% Republican. Presque Isle's 6,524 registered voters are 35.5% independent, 31.1% Republican and 29.9% Democrat. The gamble could work there. And statewide? Pew reports that 47% of Maine's voters are Democrats (or independents who lean Democratic), 36% are Republicans and independents who lean Republican and that 17% are independents with no lean. Collins can't afford to lose any significant number of the Republicans, especially with more Democrats than Republicans going to the polls in Maine. Last year "nearly 42,000 more Democrats cast ballots in November than did Republicans-- roughly three times the gaps seen in 2010 and 2014."

In the House just 23 Republicans who are running for reelection have voted with Trump less than 90% of the time. These are them with their Trump scores-- the higher the number the more pro-Trump their voting records:

• Mike Gallagher (WI-08)- 89.9%
• Don Young (AK-al)- 89.8%
• Mo Brooks (AL-05)- 89.7%
• Warren Davidson (OH-08)- 89.7%
• Bill Posey (FL-08)- 89.2%
• Jim Jordan (OH-04)- 88.6%
• Lee Zeldin (NY-01)- 88.2%
• Tom McClintock (CA-04)- 87.3%
• Ken Buck (R-CO)- 87.2%
• Alex Mooney (WV-02)- 87.0%
• Trey Hollingworth (IN-09)- 86.8%
• Paul Gosar (AZ-04)- 86.1%
• Louie Gohmert (TX-01)- 85.7%
• Matt Gaetz (FL-01)- 84.6%
• Andy Biggs (AZ-05)- 82.1%
• Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-03)- 81.6%
• Fred Upton (MI-06)- 81.5%
• Elise Stefanik (NY-21)- 78.1%
• John Katko (NY-24)- 75.8%
• Thomas Massie (KY-04)- 70.1%
• Chris Smith (NJ-04)- 67.9%
• Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01)- 64.7%
• Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02)- recently switched parties

I don't see any of these members with the guts to break with Trump. The only possibilities might be Massie, who Trump is already against, and Fitzpatrick, whose district is strongly anti-Trump. And remember, most of the 23 members above who have voted "against" Trump have done so because they are further right than Trump, not because they are mainstream conservatives, let alone moderates.