How Toxic Would Trump Be Campaigning For House Republicans In Swing District?

Read any of that stuff about how most Democratic candidates don't want the Clintons campaigning for them? Reactionary Democrats like Andrew Cuomo (NY) and Dianne Feinstein (CA) are exceptions; they love the idea of Hillary. (New York scold Kirsten Gillibrand-- who had been proud to run racist advertising against Latinos when she was in the House, is telling the media that "Bill Clinton should have resigned the presidency after his inappropriate relationship with an intern came to light nearly 20 years ago." Democratic senators in tough campaigns Claire McCaskill (MO) and Heidi Heitkamp (ND) went out of their way to very publicly tell Hillary to stay away.

Democratic candidates would also appreciate Nancy Pelosi to not make any public appearances in their districts. Republicans-- especially Republicans in swing districts-- feel the same way about Paul Ryan. And when Ryan does show up to wrangle big checks out of multimillionaires and billionaires he does it quietly and away from the media. Same with McConnell. McConnell, in fact, is the most unpopular politician in America-- and not just among Democrats. Republican voters have him too.

Democrats want Bernie campaigning for them in their districts. And Elizabeth Warren. And Randy @IronStache Bryce. Others we hear Democrat candidates requesting are Keith Ellison and the members of Congress who are on MSNBC a lot, like Ted Lieu, Adam Schiff and Eric Swalwell.

What about Trump? Of course swing district Democrats would do anything to get him campaigning in their districts with their opponents. Yesterday Bryce's sassy campaign manager, David Keith told me that "We welcome the day Trump comes, as it'll greatly help us engage with those working families who have been left behind and are ready to stand up and fight. Bernie came to talk about hope and lift the working people up. Trump will come-- and while he'll argue he's doing the same-- and simply lie on behalf of the big corporations looking to ship jobs oversees. It's a slap in the face to working people on behalf of Ryan's job-exporting driver and/or Paul Nehlen, the Nazi... and the working people will know it."

Sunday, McClatchey ran a piece by Katie Glueck about how House Republicans are refusing to even answer questions about Trump coming to their districts. Of course, in deep red districts, filled with low-IQ Republicans and few normal people-- like districts represented by fascists Mo Brooks (AL), Matt Gaetz (FL), Louie Gohmert (TX), Jim Jordan (OH) and Liz Cheney (WY)-- they'd roll out the red carpet for Señor Trumpanzee-- and any of the cast of characters around him. One Republican in a deep red district that Trump won with nearly 70% told me-- obviously on condition of anonymity that it would make his skin crawl to do a rally with Trump but that his constituents like Trump more than they like him, so he'd do it in a second. "I'd have to take a hot shower afterwards, of course," he said, giggling.

DuWayne Gregory is in a tough Long Island district where Trump beat Hillary 53.0% to 43.9%. But he knows a Trump visit is going to motivate Democrats and independent voters in a way that isn't going to help incumbent Peter King. "The people of the 2nd Congressional District, he told me, "are still recovering from Donald Trump’s last visit when he encouraged police officers to rough up suspects. This community doesn’t need anymore of his division. We are a community united to fight against his bigotry against immigrants and Paul Ryan and Peter King’s lack of leadership in standing up for what is right." Right now DuWayne is putting together a rally with a respected-- even beloved-- Democrat in his district. It's a surprise though, so I can't tell yet. Trump also won in the Oklahoma district Tom Guild is running in. Guild told us he "would enthusiastically welcome Bernie coming to Oklahoma to support our campaign. I’ll leave it up to Mr. Russell to decide if he wants Mr. Trump to appear on his behalf in 2018." Levi Tillemann is the progressive Democrat running in the Denver suburbs against GOP stooge Mike Coffman. "According to the polling we’ve done," he told me, "Trump is actually more popular than Coffman in the district. So I guess Coffman would probably embrace the opportunity. If there’s one thing we learned over the years it’s that Mike Coffman flows like water towards political expediency."

The question of whether endangered GOP candidates want President Donald Trump to campaign with them sparked dodges, lengthy pauses and a cascade of caveats in interviews with about two dozen GOP House members who are facing varying degrees of competition in races this fall.

But the answer several Republicans from tough districts have settled on is, sure-- if Trump will campaign on their terms.


“It depends,” said Fitzpatrick, a Republican from a suburban Philadelphia district that Democrats are targeting. “On what issue is he campaigning for me? If he campaigns on term limits-- I just met with him on that. If he’s able to get public support behind it, absolutely.”

But would a campaign rally be helpful? “We’ll see, we’ll see what our schedule is looking like,” he said, getting into an elevator at the Capitol.

Rep. David Valadao of California, whose district Hillary Clinton won by nearly 16 percentage points, offered a similar calculation: “If it’s a topic like water or something positive on immigration that actually benefits us-- I think if the president of the United States wants to come to the district to highlight something that’s actually helpful to the district, I think it would make sense, but it depends on the topic.”

And Miami-area Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo, who represents the most Democratic-leaning district in the country held by a Republican running for reelection this year, suggested he would welcome Trump's help-- if he "supports my work."


"I’m not asking nor have I ever asked anyone to come down and campaign, I don’t need it from anyone,” said Curbelo, who is leading an effort to force votes on immigration-related bills, rankling House conservatives. “The conditions for anyone to support me, to campaign for me, is that they support my work and are helping me achieve it for the benefit of the country."

Midterm elections are often challenging for the president’s party, and the question of where polarizing presidents can campaign tends to be a fraught one. It’s a reality that has applied to a range of leaders including Presidents George W. Bush in 2006 and Barack Obama in 2010 and 2014, when beleaguered candidates from their respective parties were loathe to make joint appearances or offer public praise.


...“It might help get out the base who might not be as fervently for a candidate such as myself,” said retiring GOP Rep. Ryan Costello, who currently represents another Philadelphia-area suburban district Clinton won. “I think, though, it would be a reminder, negatively, to swing voters who view him unfavorably but who I would want to have respond to my message of being an independent check-and-balance.”


...Still, the majority of candidates McClatchy interviewed said they would be open to Trump on their trail-- though their enthusiasm in answering that question, and the level of detail they provided in their responses, swung wildly.

“Yeah, I've encouraged every president, every president, to come to my district,” Rep. Jeff Denham of California said after pausing for a few seconds. Like Valadao, who also represents the Central Valley, Denham then turned back to local issues, referencing a water controversy. “To have our president come to take a look at our water being shut off, at our communities being devastated, that is something I would definitely support."

Westside Congressman Ted Lieu, the regional vice chair of the DCCC-- and the only competent person working for the organization-- cut right to the chase when I asked him how he'd feel about Trump coming to Orange County or the Central Valley to campaign for the embattled and vulnerable Republican incumbents in those two areas. This is what he told me: "I sincerely hope Trump shows up in California to campaign for Republican congressional candidates here. The DCCC is going to spend a lot of money tying Trump to these candidates, and this would make the job that much easier. I would gladly pay the permit fee for Trump to show up in California to do one of his toxic rallies. It would be super awesome for Democrats if Californians can see Trump unleashed. It would be even better if Trump brought Scot Pruitt and Ted Nugent with him and went full MAGA. Trump's xenophobic and bigoted rallies will jack up Democratic turnout and horrify independents in California."


...Doug Heye, a former communications director for the Republican National Committee, said it was one thing for candidates in competitive seats to voice enthusiasm for a Trump visit. It’s another thing entirely to actually pursue one.

“They’ve got to take care of their base,” he said. “If you’re telling your base, ‘I don’t want Trump to come,’ you run the risk of being judged by that, and having people unhappy and everything that comes along with that. … I think it’s a different issue when it comes to actual campaigning. I think we’ll see Trump in really red places more than anywhere else.”

But Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, who represents a district Clinton won, beamed when asked if he would want Trump to show up in his suburban Dallas district. He answered in the affirmative before a reporter finished asking the question.

"Awesome, I welcome him with open arms," Sessions said. "Can you invite him for me?"

The progressive running for the Dallas-area seat, TX-32, Sessions is occupying, Lillian Salerno, told me yesterday that she "would not be surprised if the President campaigned for one of the most reliable yes men. After all, Congressman Sessions was instrumental in helping the President nearly get away with taking health care coverage from 22 million Americans. That's devotion. The reason I ran was precisely because we need to win this seat in order to help hold Trump accountable. Trump and the rigged  system know that they must remain in power to continue the fraud on the American people. This means control of Congress. I am in this race to make sure the corporate Democrat doesn’t win and I am on the ballot to beat Sessions."

Ron Brownstein, reporting for CNN, noted this morning that as Trump's daily "bombshells detonate, sometimes within hours of each other, congressional Republican leaders then react with little more than a shrug. Even more important, the vast majority of the Republican electoral coalition increasingly responds the same way... The elimination of any distance between Trump and the conventional Republican interests that controlled the party before him has happened so incrementally it can be difficult to discern from day to day. But it remains one of the central political dynamics of 2018. Over the long term, Trump's success at stamping his polarizing brand on the GOP remains a huge electoral gamble for the party because it risks alienating the young, well-educated and diverse groups growing, rather than shrinking, in the electorate. But in the near-term, the GOP's choice to ally so unequivocally with such a unique president may have the paradoxical effect of producing a much more conventional midterm election than seemed possible earlier this year."

Another Republican Congressman Bites The Dust-- Is Ryan Costello The First NRA Parkland Casualty?

Paul Ryan's toxicity would have sunk Ryan Costello

When Pennsylvania's Supreme Court ungerrymandered the state's congressional districts, it looked like curtains for Ryan Costello. His weirdly drawn district (PA-06) went from an R+2 PVI (a swing district that would be very difficult to hold in a wave election) to a more compact district with the same number (PA-06) but very different political boundaries and a D+2 PVI. In 2016 it went very narrowly for Clinton (one point). Under these new boundaries, which now include bright blue Reading, it would have gone to her by 9 points.

Costello served on the Chester County Board of Commissioners before being elected to Congress in 2014 when Republican Jim Gerlach retired. He's considered a mainstream conservative but, coupled with the new district lines, his "A" rating from the NRA and the disdain for Trump and Paul Ryan in his district made his reelection look very sketchy for 2018.

Costello's been whining about the unfairness of the judges who ungerrymandered the state and has encouraged the state legislature of impeach them. Last week he filed the necessary petitions to get on the ballot in November but 3 days later City&State Pennsylvania broke the news that Costello is retiring from Congress, the 39th GOP House member to flee the Trumpified party.

Despite filing petitions on Tuesday to run for another term, four Republican sources said Costello indicated at a recent meeting with state and local GOP officials that he intends to drop out of the race in the weeks before the May Primary. The sources all spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitive nature of the meeting.

Costello reportedly met with state party chair Val DiGiorgio, former 6th District Congressman Jim Gerlach and several other top Republicans early Friday. According to sources, he indicated that he intended to seek a job in the private sector rather than face a costly reelection fight.

...Some had speculated that Costello would drop out after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear the GOP challenge to the state’s new congressional districts. Many observers say the new Sixth District, in the highly competitive Philadelphia suburbs, is even more favorable for Democratic candidates-- last month, Costello called for the impeachment of the state Supreme Court Justices involved in that decision. A bruising Republican loss in this month’s PA-18 special election also sent shockwaves across the national GOP landscape and is generally seen as an ill omen for upcoming midterms across the country.

If true, Costello’s decision not to run would put suburban Republicans in a tight spot. Despite his apparent vulnerability, local party leadership are short on alternative candidates with strong name recognition.

Recently, county-level Republicans told reporters they were still scouting possible replacement candidates. But as the petition deadline passed, only local lawyer Greg McCauley had filed signatures to run as a Republican.

The DCCC and EMILY's List manufactured a candidate in their factory at 430 S. Capitol St. for the race last year, Chrissy Houlahan, who-- despite running a company that manufactured shoes in a Chinese sweatshop, is a shoe-in for Congress now. This morning, in fact, Roll Call changed their November rating of the PA-06 race from Tilts Democratic to Likely Democratic. 

Remember, the Lake Research poll of 30 swing districts (including PA-06) from last week found that Democrats currently lead by 11 points on the generic ballot for Congress, with Democrats receiving 46% of the vote, Republicans receiving 35%, and 17% undecided. There is a clear enthusiasm gap, with 38% of voters strongly supporting the Democratic candidate but only 27% of voters saying the same for the Republican candidate. Trump is deeply unpopular in these districts, with just 36% of voters rating him as doing an excellent or good job, compared with 64% of voters who give him a just fair or poor rating.

And although Ryan Costello is a complete rubber stamp for Paul Ryan, he got some especially troubling news when his constituents were polled about their feelings for Paul Ryan last December. PA-06 voters-- the old redder PA-06-- were among the most anti-Paul Ryan voters in any district held by a Republican across the country. At the time-- that's about 3 months ago-- Trump's disapproval in the district was 52%. Paul Ryan's disapproval was a startling 70%!

The Billionaire Class Has Taken Over The Government-- Can We Fight Back And Win

If nothing else, please watch this 3 minute trailer for Trumping Democracy above-- and then send it to a friend.

Now the good news: Voters across the country prefer a Democratic takeover over Congress next year by double digits-- 50-39%. That's huge. Janet Hook: "Voters increasingly want Democrats to control Congress after the 2018 elections, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that offers several warning signs for the Republican Party."

Yesterday, NBC's Mark Murray reported that "Fresh off their victory in Alabama’s special Senate election, Democrats now enjoy their largest advantage in congressional preference in nine years... signaling a dangerous political environment for Republicans entering next year’s midterm elections." The most important numbers in the poll are 43% and 31%. 43% is the percentage of independent voters who prefer Democrats and 31% is the percentage who prefer Republicans. Outside of the deep red seats, primarily in the unreconstructed South, independents will determine who will win congressional elections in 2018. If that margin holds-- or, as is likely continues to grow in a blue direction-- Democrats will be in position to win dozens of seats held by Republicans, including between 7 and 10 in California, nearly as many in Texas and all the swing districts in the Northeast, including Maine, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, while picking up seats in the Midwest (Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana). And that augers well for the country, especially in terms of putting a check on Trump and his neo-fascist regime. In fact had Schumer not selected 2 especially wretched candidates for the Senate from Arizona (grotesquely corrupt far-right Blue Dog Kyrsten Sinema) and Nevada (utterly worthless and clueless conservative Jacky Rosen) I would be ready to predict a lock on a Democratic Senate takeover to go along with a House takeover. (And you can say goodbye to Paul Ryan and hello to iron worker Randy Bryce in the U.S. House of Representatives.)

The last time Democrats both held a double-digit lead and hit 50 percent on this question in the NBC/WSJ poll was September 2008, right before the party won the White House and picked up a substantial number of House and Senate seats.

This past October, Democrats had a 7-point advantage on congressional preference, 48 percent to 41 percent.

In this most recent poll, Democrats hold a whopping 48-point lead in congressional preference among voters ages 18-34 (69 percent to 21 percent), a 20-point lead among female voters (54 percent to 34 percent) and a 12-point lead among independent voters (43 percent to 31 percent).

By contrast, Republicans have a 2-point edge among white voters (46 percent to 44 percent) and a 12-point advantage with whites without a college degree (50 percent to 38 percent).

Notably, Democrats lead among male voters by 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent, and among seniors by 4 points, 46 percent to 42 percent.

The NBC/WSJ poll also shows Democrats with the intensity advantage, with 59 percent of Democratic voters saying they have a high level of interest in next year’s elections (registering either a 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale), versus 49 percent of Republican voters saying the same thing.

Additionally, 62 percent of voters who said they voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 have a high level of interest in next year’s midterms, compared with 50 percent of Trump voters.

"A double-digit margin here is an important indicator of Democratic intensity," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollsters from Hart Research Associates.

As Trump's disapproval numbers continue to grow, and as the country continues to see him as a liar and source of fake news, his impact on Republicans, largely seen as enablers and rubber stamps, also grows. In fact, in many cases, the disapproval numbers for members of Congress are significantly worse than Trump's disapproval. Let's look at 10 comparisons (from various recent polls) in key battleground districts of Tump's and Ryan's disapproval ratings. The first number represents Trump's disapproval in the district and the second represents Ryan's disapproval rating:

• VA-10 (Barbara Comstock)- 59/71%
• CO-06 (Mike Coffman)- 55/64%
• PA-06 (Ryan Costello)- 52/70%
• ME-02 (Bruce Poliquin)- 49/61%
• IA-03 (David Young)- 53/65%
• WA-08 (Dave Reichert)- 55/67%
• MI-11 (Dave Trott)- 50/65%
• MN-02 (Jason Lewis)- 52/62%
• PA-15 (Charlie Dent)- 52/61%
• IA-01 (Rod Blum)- 52/61%

Each one of these congressmembers is a Paul Ryan rubber stamp and each has built a voting record that can be easily tied to Ryan's hated, toxic agenda. None of these 10 is expected to be returning to Congress in 2019. In fact, 3 have already announced they are retiring, rather than face near-certain defeat. Two-- Bruce Poliquin and David Young-- have extraordinarily qualified progressive opponent, respectively Jared Golden and Austin Frerick. And a third district, the retiring Trott's MI-11, also has an excellent progressive candidate in Haley Stevens. All will be hanging this around their opponent's necks:

Odious Wisconsin Granny Starver Retiring-- Too Late For GOP Incumbents Bracing For A Tsunami?

Every Beltway insider who read the DWT predictions for the last couple of months-- once I started seeing the WI-01 internal polling numbers-- that Ryan would retire, rolled their eyes. Then, today, Tim Alberta and Rachel Bade went with the story at Politico-Pro: Paul Ryan Sees His Wild Washington Journey Coming To An End.

Last night I was at a fundraiser here in L.A. for Kaniela Ing. Kaniela told his life story and how that story turned him into a progressive. While he was telling it-- he came from a modest background and his father passed away when he was young and he was dependent on a then-strong social safety net to make it and, in his case, escape from the pineapple fields. Except for the part about the pineapple fields--and the conclusion-- it's almost the same as Paul Ryan's life story. But Kaniela internalized the struggle and decided to devote his career to helping others struggling the same way he ands family struggled. Ryan took a different approach, working tirelessly, after reading and internalizing Ayn Rand's simplistic adolescent novels, to pull up the ladder behind him and shred the social safety net that helped him escape from poverty.

Ryan's Tax Scam was carefully written to eventually end what's left of the New Deal and completely shred what remains of the social safety net, which, he has said many times, makes people lazy. Alberta and Bade were more generous about how they phrased it: "Having spent a quarter-century in Washington-- as an intern, waiter, junior think-tanker, Hill staffer and, since 1999, as a member of Congress-- he had never wavered in his obsession with fixing what he viewed as the nation’s two fundamental weaknesses: its Byzantine tax system and ballooning entitlement state... The speaker has since gone public with this aspiration, suggesting that 2018 should be the year Washington finally tackles what he sees as the systemic problems with Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid."

Tinkering with the social safety net is a bold undertaking, particularly in an election year. But Ryan has good reason for throwing caution to the wind: His time in Congress is running short.

Despite several landmark legislative wins this year, and a better-than-expected relationship with President Donald Trump, Ryan has made it known to some of his closest confidants that this will be his final term as speaker. He consults a small crew of family, friends and staff for career advice, and is always cautious not to telegraph his political maneuvers. But the expectation of his impending departure has escaped the hushed confines of Ryan’s inner circle and permeated the upper-most echelons of the GOP. In recent interviews with three dozen people who know the speaker-- fellow lawmakers, congressional and administration aides, conservative intellectuals and Republican lobbyists-- not a single person believed Ryan will stay in Congress past 2018.

...He would like to serve through Election Day 2018 and retire ahead of the next Congress. This would give Ryan a final legislative year to chase his second white whale, entitlement reform, while using his unrivaled fundraising prowess to help protect the House majority-- all with the benefit of averting an ugly internecine power struggle during election season. Ryan has never loved the job; he oozes aggravation when discussing intra-party debates over “micro-tactics," and friends say he feels like he’s running a daycare center. On a personal level, going home at the end of next year would allow Ryan, who turns 48 next month, to keep promises to family; his three children are in or entering their teenage years, and Ryan, whose father died at 55, wants desperately to live at home with them full-time before they begin flying the nest. The best part of this scenario, people close to the speaker emphasize: He wouldn’t have to share the ballot with Trump again in 2020.

The bad news for House Republicans is that Ryan is even less popular among voters than Trump and having him leading the House Republicans into the midterms is likely to be catastrophic. Sunday, we ran this polling data showing Ryan's approval/disapproval numbers in key congressional districts around the country:

• VA-10 (Barbara Comstock)- 20/71%
• PA-06 (Ryan Costello)- 21/70%
• WA-08 (Dave Reichert)- 20/67%
• AZ-02 (Martha McSally)- 23/65%
• IA-03 (David Young)- 24/65%
• MI-11 (Dave Trott)- 22/65%
• CO-06 (Mike Coffman)- 25/64%
• CA-49 (Darrell Issa)- 25/63%
• MN-02 (Jason Lewis)- 29/62%
• IA-01 (Rod Blum)- 26/61%
• ME-02 (Bruce Poliquin)- 25/61%
• PA-15 (Charlie Dent)- 25/61%
• NY-22 (Claudia Tenney)- 26/52%
• CO-03 (Scott Tipton)- 24/52%
• PA-08 (Brian Fitzpatrick)- 30/52%
• NY-27 (Chris Collins)- 29/51%
• NY-24 (John Katko)- 32/49%
• CA-25 (Steve Knight)- 26/48%
• CA-39 (Ed Royce)- 26/43%

Randy's campaign manager, David Keith, just told us that "It is no surprise that Paul Ryan is contemplating going home. From day one of Randy's campaign, southeast Wisconsin-- and the nation-- has woken up to the sound of hope and a working class vision of fairness and justice. Paul Ryan has been spending too much time in bourbon-filled back rooms on Wall Street to hear that message, but clearly, it's loud enough now. He's more than welcome to apply for an iron working apprenticeship so he can learn a thing or two about how he'll spend his time during retirement."

Randy Bryce: "We knew Paul Ryan was too afraid to stand up to Donald Trump, but now it appears that he's too afraid to face the voters of his own district as well. Ryan must be seeing the same thing we are: his poll numbers are dropping, while our campaign has caught fire." Randy's campaign chief strategist, Bill Hyers brought up the new poll from Global Strategy Group which shows Ryan's poll numbers are tanking at home, with 47% of district voters saying they view Ryan negatively, compared to just 46% with a positive impression-- a net drop of 9 points since August. Despite having a fraction of Ryan's name recognition, Bryce is already within striking distance, trailing 46-40%-- and when voters learn about Bryce, he pulls substantially into the lead, which must have driven Ryan to make this decision to retire. Hyers: "Ryan would rather retire than be held accountable for what he's done, but one way or another, Paul Ryan will be out of a job in 2018."

Did the Politico story even mention Randy Bryce, the construction worker on the verge on defeating Ryan on election day? Is Ryan's plea to voters in Kenosha, Janesville, Racine and across southeast Wisconsin going to now be, "hey, I'm leaving anyway... don't embarrass me now? Have pity." Regardless of what he says this is the time to double down... triple down. Whether Ryan runs with the intention of retiring of doesn't run, the key has always been to replace him with a stalwart defender of the legitimate aspirations of working families... Randy Bryce. See that thermometer below?

This morning, the folks at VoteVets alerted their members about Ryan's decision: "Moments ago, news broke that Congressman Paul Ryan is considering retiring after the midterm elections. But honestly, Paul Ryan doesn't deserve to retire with dignity, he deserves to be sent out with an embarrassing defeat... Paul Ryan thinks he is going loot the U.S. Treasury to rain cash on some of the richest Americans in this country and then leave out the back door? No way. No how. We're gonna beat him first." And by "we," they meant everyone coalescing around Randy Bryce to defeat Ryan. You can chip into Randy's campaign by tapping the Blue America Stop Paul Ryan thermometer on the right. One of the candidates we're eager to see working in Congress on behalf of working families alongside Bryce is Iowa's Austin Frerick, a former Treasury Department economist under Obama. "For once, I encourage Rep. David Young," he told us moments ago about his rubber stamp opponent, "to take Speaker Ryan's lead and retire at the end of this session as well. He can save himself the humiliation come November 2018."

Sam Jammal, who's running for Ed Royce's Orange County seat had a similar point of view today" "Ryan can announce he is retiring, but Ed's still stuck with him. Ed's a yes vote that Ryan has banked on for votes to raise taxes on families in our district, cut Medicare for our seniors , undermine our environment and push Donald Trump's reckless agenda that does nothing for our community. Just like with Trump, there is no running away from Ryan next year." And Katie Hill, running north of there for the seat Steve Knight has such a tenuous grasp on told us that "Ryan is less popular in the 25th district than any other elected official. CA-25 voters know that his tax 'plan' and his efforts to repeal the ACA hurt the residents of the district. Steve Knight has continually supported his corporate cronyism agenda. After Virginia, New Jersey, Alabama, and other elections around the country the writing on the wall is clear; voters have had enough. The 2018 elections will turn Speaker Ryan into the Minority leader. A blue wave is coming and I look forward to making the 25th district part of it." Doug Applegate, the progressive in the race to unseat Darrell Issa, saw the Politico story and reminded us that "Without Paul Ryan leading the GOP herd, Darrell Issa will be lost. Constituents of the 49th will see that the GOP only wants to make sure their government does nothing for working men and women of America."

And to quote Beyonce, "tell 'em boy bye"

In A Wave Election Cycle, Republicans Are Preparing To Wave Goodbye To Congress-- And Hello To K Street

The DCCC brain surgeons are starting to figure out that PVIs don't count as much in wave elections and that this cycle there really are no safe Republican seats. Any seat where the Democrats + independents make up 50% + one of potential voters, is up for grabs. People are pissed off-- pissed off about Trump, pissed off about Putin, pissed off about Ryan's Tax Scam, pissed off about how the Republicans treat women (and children), pissed off... did I mention Trump?

Last Tuesday, in a Georgia runoff, progressive Democrat Jen Jordan broke the Republicans' supermajority in the state Senate by winning the seat abandoned by Hunter Hill, one of the crazy right-wing Republicans running for governor. That's a red, red district-- wealthy and white-- that includes Buckhead, Marietta, Smyrna, Vinings and Sandy Springs and Jen beat a conservative Democrat with a GOP-lite message by talking progressive issues. And we all know what happened in Virginia as seat after seat was taken from the Republicans in districts where they thought they were perfectly safe and as their Trump-backed gubernatorial candidate was swamped-- along with the other 2 statewide candidates.

Less well known was how Trump's top Republican ally in New York, Rob Astorino, Westchester County Executive, was beaten by state Senator George Latimer-- despite Mercer and Bannon throwing a million dollars into the race to save Astorino. Latimer took the race handily-- 116,767 (57%) to 89,463 (43%). That same day a Democrat, Laura Curran, won the Nassau County Executive job over GOP heavy-hitter Jack Martins. Did I mention people are pissed? At Republicans? About a month ago the DCCC put its toe tepidly into waters it never plays in, adding nearly a dozen new districts it claims it will contest:

• WI-01- Paul Ryan
• NY-02- Peter King
• IN-09- Trey Hollingsworth
• WA-05- Cathy McMorris Rodgers
• UT-04- Mia Love
• CA-04- Tom McClintock
• WI-06- Glenn Grothman
• TX-21- Lamar Smith (retiring)
• OH-12- Pat Tiberi (retiring)
• PA-11- Lou Barletta (retiring)
• PA-15- Charlie Dent (retiring)

I'd normally say, "welcome, jump in-- he water's fine"... but-- hey this is the DCCC we're talking about and that means Republican-lite, corrupt conservative candidates will be deployed. They claim to have their eyes on 91 districts now-- their largest battlefield since Rahm destroyed the committee's DNA and made it completely useless and dysfunctional. Not even a complete lunkhead like Luján would be stupid enough to mess with the energy around the Randy Bryce campaign up in WI-01, but the DCCC can be expected to back their usual array of self-funding crap-conservative candidates in most districts-- take Joseph Kopser in TX-21, Liz Watson in IN-09, Tim Gomes in NY-02 as examples. Garbage from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party-- or even worse... actual Republicans pretending to be "Democrats" or, to quote a frequent DWT commenter, Democraps.

Whoever writes Luján's pathetic memos for him claimed that "the DCCC successfully outlined and built an 80-district battlefield by landing highly qualified recruits with records of service and authentic messages that connect with voters in their districts." The DCCC persuades itself this is somehow true-- none of it is-- and proceeds, cycle after cycle, to hand Congress back to the GOP. Most of the memo is about money, even though in wave elections money takes a back seat to grassroots energy. The DCCC has never and never will understand this, so they recruit energy-less candidates who turn off the base completely often because they are self-funding conservatives totally out of touch with a Democratic they have never interacted with. Great examples are horrifying DCCC recruits like Gil Cisneros (the lottery winning Republican in CA-39), Hans Keirstead (CA-48), David Trone (MD-06), Sarah Jacobs (the Qualcomm heiress- CA-49), Lucas St. Clair (the Burt's Bees heir-ME-02)... One day Pelosi will just empty her whole roladex onto the DCCC candidates page.

What the DCCC has going for itself this quarter has nothing whatsoever to do with the DCCC-- the disdain in which voters hold Trump and Paul Ryan. If only the DCCC knew how to use that disdain as anchors around the necks of Republican incumbents. These are Republican districts whereTrump's job approval rating is in the toilet. Approval/Disapproval:

• VA-10 (Barbara Comstock)- 37/59%
• CA-10 (Jeff Denham)- 40/57%
• CO-06 (Mike Coffman)- 41/55%
• WA-08 (Dave Reichert)- 40/55%
• CA-21 (David Valadao)- 41/55%
• VA-02 (Scott Taylor)- 43/54%
• IA-03 (David Young)- 43/53%
• CA-39 (Ed Royce)- 33/53%
• NY-24 (John Katko)- 37/53%
• PA-08 (Brian Fitzpatrick)- 40/53%
• FL-26 (Carlos Curbelo)- 37/53%
• MI-08 (Mike Bishop)- 37/52%
• WI-01 (Paul Ryan)- 42/52%
• IA-01 (Rod Blum)- 34/52%
• MN-02 (Jason Lewis)- 44/52%
• PA-06 (Ryan Costello)- 43/52%
• PA-15 (Charlie Dent)- 46/52%
• NY-23 (Tom Reed)- 41/50%
• MI-11 (Dave Trott)- 44/50%
• CA-25 (Steve Knight)- 42/50%
• ME-02 (Bruce Poliquin)- 43/49%

Now, let's look at polling that's been done on Paul Ryan and his favorable/unfavorable rankings. He is absolutely toxic! Independent, especially, HATE this guy now.

• VA-10 (Barbara Comstock)- 20/71%
• PA-06 (Ryan Costello)- 21/70%
• WA-08 (Dave Reichert)- 20/67%
• AZ-02 (Martha McSally)- 23/65%
• IA-03 (David Young)- 24/65%
• MI-11 (Dave Trott)- 22/65%
• CO-06 (Mike Coffman)- 25/64%
• CA-49 (Darrell Issa)- 25/63%
• MN-02 (Jason Lewis)- 29/62%
• IA-01 (Rod Blum)- 26/61%
• ME-02 (Bruce Poliquin)- 25/61%
• PA-15 (Charlie Dent)- 25/61%
• NY-22 (Claudia Tenney)- 26/52%
• CO-03 (Scott Tipton)- 24/52%
• PA-08 (Brian Fitzpatrick)- 30/52%
• NY-27 (Chris Collins)- 29/51%
• NY-24 (John Katko)- 32/49%
• CA-25 (Steve Knight)- 26/48%
• CA-39 (Ed Royce)- 26/43%

Now, if only the DCCC could use Ryan against Republican candidates, the way the NRCC used Pelosi against Democratic candidates! Politico had some interesting reporting on this same topic on Friday. Fortunately Randy Bryce knows how to use Paul Ryan against Paul Ryan. If you missed the first post this morning, go back and look.

California Rep. Tom McClintock, who represents one of the newly added districts, acknowledged “a huge enthusiasm gap that favors the Democrats right now.”

“I think in a lot of ways, it’s the 2010 dynamic in reverse,” he said.

Rep. Glenn Grothman-- one of two Wisconsin Republicans on the list, which includes House Speaker Paul Ryan-- told the local WISN-AM radio station last month that his campaign was “not raising as much money as we should.”

“I am very apprehensive about the future,” said Grothman, who represents a Republican-oriented district in Central Wisconsin. “Right now it’s kind of the calm before the storm.”

Though Grothman and McClintock easily won reelection in 2014, they have good cause to be apprehensive. Aside from the potential drag of the president’s low approval ratings, both incumbents face the unusual prospect of well-funded Democratic challengers.

In Wisconsin, the state Democratic Party hired a campaign organizing director in an off-year for the first time this year, said the party’s chairwoman, Martha Laning.

She called the effort to unseat Grothman and Ryan “realistic.”

“People are frustrated,” she said. “They don’t see things getting done that are helping them.”

In McClintock’s sprawling, largely rural Northern California district-- where Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by more than 14 percentage points last year-- the congressman’s opponents are raising cash at a surprising clip. One of his Democratic challengers, Jessica Morse, raised more money than McClintock in the third quarter. Another potential Democratic foe, Regina Bateson, saw campaign contributions increase 10-fold the day after the Virginia election, her campaign said.

...Mark Graul, a Republican strategist in Wisconsin, was similarly skeptical about the prospect of Democrats toppling Ryan or Grothman. However, he said, “Anyone who thinks they know what’s going to happen a year from now is smoking crack rock.”

“You can certainly make a plausible argument that if you’re a Republican you’ve got to be on guard, and wary and ready to run a good race next year based on what we saw in Virginia,” he said.

The secret weapon for Democrats smart enough to use it

Voters Don't Want To See Ryan OR Pelosi As The Next Speaker-- Are We Helpless To Guarantee That?

Most voters want them both gone already

The most current generic congressional vote polling-- by Fox News, NBC/Wall Street Journal, PPP, ABC/Washington Post, Quinnipiac, NPR?Marist, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov-- show the Democrats outpolling the Republicans by, on average 9.6%. Ironically, the poll with the worst news for the Republicans was done by Fox. Among registered voters 50% would like to see Democrats leading Congress and just 35% would prefer to see Republicans running Congress after the next election. That same Fox poll also shows the Democratic Party with a 51%/44% favorable/unfavorable rating while the Republicans have a 40%/55% favorable/unfavorable rating.

John Rogers, the monkey the House Republicans hired to run their version of the DCCC, the NRCC, told The Hill that Republicans would benefit from the years-long attempts to use Nancy Pelosi against Democratic congressional candidates. He admits that the NRCC's main weapon to try to hold onto the House is by making every race about her. "In reality," he said, "next fall is going to come down to whether or not you want to reinstitute Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House."

It's true that the Republicans have become a one-trick pony with that narrative and have every intention of using it again, the way they used it against Jon Ossoff in Georgia this year. Ossoff wads an extraordinarily weak and pointless candidate-- a real DCCC special-- and it was predictable that he would be vulnerable to that kind of idiotic attack. The DCCC doesn't seem capable of the kind of single-minded aggressiveness it takes to turn the tables on the GOP by making Ryan into the kind of villain the Republicans have made Pelosi into. The irony there is that Ryan is already more disliked nationally than Pelosi is-- even after years of Republican slander against her!

Ryan's unfavorable rating is now at 49.3%, compared to Pelosi's 48.7%. When questioned about the GOP efforts to tie Democratic candidates to Pelosi, a DCCC spokesman responded that "Speaker Ryan is increasingly unpopular as he forces the most vulnerable House Republicans to walk the plank on jacking up healthcare costs and increasing middle-class taxes to fund handouts for the rich and large corporations. The midterms will be a referendum on Republicans, and it’s clear that they are failing to come to terms with that reality."

But some of the GOP incumbents most closely tied to Ryan-- take Sean Duffy in Wisconsin as an example-- aren't even being targeted by the DCCC which can't see further than going after Republicans in districts Hillary won. What makes that one-dimensional strategy even more pathetic is the horrifying DCCC recruiting, which focuses on everything people hate about Democrats-- particularly their ties to Wall Street and their wishy-washy Republican-lite stands.

I reached out to several campaigns to ask candidates and campaign managers what they plan do about the NRCC threat. Most wanted to keep it off the record. You can see why from this response from one of the best and most admired campaign managers in the country: "I respect Pelosi, " he told me this morning, "but it's time for her to pack it in-- past time. She's hurting the party's chance to decisively win the midterms and put a check on Trump. I know it's not fair, but the Republicans have succeeded in demonizing her, especially with independent voters... We're going to have to tell our voters that we don't want her or Ryan as Speaker.. We feel bad about equating them both but not even Democrats in [our district] want to see her back with the Speaker's gavel... I agree with you that Hoyer and Crowley would be much worse party leaders but most voters have never heard of either one of them and the Republicans can't use them against candidates... unless they read some obscure blog like yours."

Tom Guild is Oklahoma City knows he's definitely going to face a barrage of ads conflating him with Pelosi. He doesn't seem worried. "Because of the extreme dysfunction in Congress today," he told me today, "I’m going to wait and see who the candidates for House Democratic Leader/Speaker are before deciding which person to support. It would be hard to do worse than Paul Ryan has done as the leader of House Republicans. I want a progressive who can pass an increase to the minimum wage, single payer health care, a massive infrastructure bill to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure while creating millions of good paying jobs, direct and hasten the transition to renewable energy sources, and invest in America before looking for new overseas military adventures. I will take this decision seriously and am not in anyone’s hip pocket. Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio (or his closest living iteration in Congress)? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you."

Katie Hill has obviously thought this over, but is it enough? She told me that "From the very beginning, I have been clear that my loyalty is and will always be to the people of the 25th district-- not to party, not to donors, not to corporations or special interests. We know the Republicans will use every line of attack they can think of, but I am indisputably a political outsider and a homegrown candidate, not someone brought in by the Democratic party to run in this district. The voters of the 25th have been getting to know and trust me through our videos and through my presence in the community. They know I am honest and straightforward, and not afraid to stand up to anyone who tries to back me into a corner or do wrong by our community-- no matter who that comes from. I consider that trust sacred and will always honor it. I know my community will understand that, and will not be fooled by the RNC trying to equate me to or pretend that I am beholden to anyone else."

James Thompson, currently running for Congress in a Kansas rematch, has a very different perspective on this than anyone else because he just went through the experience a few months ago. "I ran for Congress in the 4th District of Kansas in the very first Special Election after Trump was inaugurated," he told us. "The DCCC claims they did not help my race because they did not want to 'nationalize it.' Yet, as soon as I received the nomination from the Kansas Democratic Party to run for Congress, the Republican Party 'nationalized' the campaign by immediately tying me to Leader Pelosi, saying she hand-picked me and that I was her puppet. Ron Estes and the Republicans in Kansas, led by the KOCH brothers ultra-conservative political machine, never met a lie they didn’t like. I had never met, nor even spoke with, Nancy Pelosi and yet was being branded like a bull with her unpopularity here in Kansas. She sure never helped my race, and the mere mention of her name hurt my campaign. The same ads used against Ossoff, were used against me by simply switching out his picture for mine. The night of the special election, Leader Pelosi called and offered her condolences for my loss. She was warm, friendly and sympathetic and I greatly appreciated her taking the time out of her busy schedule to call me. While I respect her as a person and her accomplishments as Speaker of the House, her time in leadership needs to end for the good of the Democratic Party. With better leadership from the party, we may have been able to harness the progressive wave sweeping the country and possibly win some of the Special Elections. The Democratic Party needs an infusion of new progressive leadership like Keith Ellison and Ro Khanna. Regardless of whether it is true, Republicans will brand every Democrat with the Pelosi brand in hopes of sinking campaigns in 2018 with the mere mention of her name. New leadership needs to take over and lead the fight for a 50 state strategy. If Leader Pelosi is still in office when I get to Congress, I will vote for new leadership that will ensure the Democratic Party fights in all 50 states."

One of our best congressional candidates: "Off the record, I'll be frank and say I think we need new leadership, I'm just not sure who." Another great congressional candidate who asked for anonymity told me "Off the record, I do not want Nancy Pelosi anywhere near my campaign. Thanks, but no thanks. She is toxic." Another candidate knows exactly who he wants to replace Pelosi and I think he'll be announcing it soon.

David Gill, the Blue America-backed candidate in the central Illinois district held by Ryan puppet Rodney Davis, is certainly not going to vote for Ryan (if he's even still in Congress when Gill gets there in 2019). He told us that "If the Republicans try to attack me as a lapdog for Mrs. Pelosi, we will laugh and let voters know how utterly ridiculous that is. I defeated her chosen candidate in the primary of 2012, and I am in the process of trying to defeat her chosen candidate in the 2018 primary. Additionally, no U.S. House candidate in Illinois history has ever collected more signatures for an independent Congressional campaign than I did last year. Those 11,000+ signatures will make it very clear to voters that my votes in Congress will not be dictated to me by Mrs. Pelosi or anyone else."

Jared Golden is running for the Maine seat held by Trump rubber stamp Bruce Poliquin. He's the Majority Whip of the state legislature and he has a clear understanding about how legislative bodies work. One of his primary opponents happens to be straight out of Pelosi's coterie of super-wealthy elites. And he didn't mince any words. "It’s time for a new generation of leaders in Washington. My support will go to the leader that shows me they care about and understand the priorities of working class people-- it’s got to be someone serious about rebuilding an economy that doesn’t leave small rural states like Maine behind. I want to serve with leaders that demonstrate they have the courage to fight for progressive values and the ability to work across the aisle to deliver results. We need service-driven leaders who will do what’s best for this country and I believe that’s to fight for the great majority-- working and middle class people."

Derrick Crowe, the Blue America-endorsed candidate in the Austin-San Antonio district Lamar Smith is giving up, told us that "Jon Ossoff lost because he refused to fight for key progressive values, concern-trolled government spending like a Republican, and didn't live in the district. His campaign also lacked message discipline and kept throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what would stick. When that's the campaign you run, you let the other side define you, and you don't sufficiently inspire your base to close the gap for you. To put it mildly, that's not the campaign we're running here in TX-21. A vote for me is a vote for a clear set of progressive values that puts us on the side of the working class against corporate power and the billionaires. Anyone who wants my vote for Speaker of the House will have to demonstrate that they are the best vehicle to advance those values in Congress."

Jenny Marshall, the progressive Democrat running for the Piedmont seat Virginia Foxx occupies toked us that "People are looking for a person that can relate to the everyday struggles of average Americans. They need to know that their representative is not bought and paid for by corporate interests. We are separating ourselves from candidates who do not support like progressive issues like single payer health care, campaign finance reform including eliminating corporate donations to campaigns. These issues are important for our communities and they need to know that they have a strong choice that supports what they need."

Doug Applegate has a similar perspective-- as well as some creepy Pelosi candidate backed by big money in his primary. When I asked him if Issa and the GOP Machine will try to conflate him with Pelosi, he laughed and said, "You’ve got to be kidding me. Since nearly beating Darrell Issa after the DCCC came in late in the race only 67 days before election day 2016, corporate and establishment Democrats have only indicated that the last person they want to join their club is a Marine Colonel. While Dem Hill members insist they won’t endorse until after the primary, multiple conservative Democrat Congressmen endorse Mike Levin whose corporation received an 'undisclosed payment/investment' from Exxon in the summer of 2016. Despite that bump from the biggest carbon fuel producer, Levin still insists that he’s an environmental lawyer.  As a former Clinton aide and Qualcomm heiress, a crowbar couldn’t pry Sara Jacobs away from moneyed corporate Democrats and Pelosi. I’m not a corporate Democrat; I’m not an establishment Democrat. I’m a Marine Colonel who will fight for change, for a new labor movement, for single payer healthcare, for public preschool to public university regardless of parental income, for ending oil subsidies that will free market forces to reach 100% renewable energy by 2027 and for real change. The only label you will ever stick on me is 'he’s a Marine Colonel who will fight like hell for change.'"

Who's More Damaging To GOP Candidates-- Trump, Ryan, McConnell Or Moore?

The other day, in talking about the immense value to Randy Bryce the Bernie Sanders endorsement was. I mentioned in passing how toxic most political endorsements are. No Democrats want endorsements from party leaders like Pelosi, Hoyer, Crowley or Wasserman Schultz. And in Republicanville, who would want an endorsement from, for example, Paul Ryan? He's like an anchor around the necks of Republican incumbents and candidates. I used as an example rubber stamp Ryan worshipper in Houston, John Culberson. Ryan's disapproval rating among voters in TX-07 are so high, they are helping to tank Culberson. And that's pretty typical nationally. And Mitch McConnell's favorables are even worse. As Kevin Robillard reported for Politico Saturday, Republicans are doing whatever it takes to distance themselves from the Senate Majority Leader.

Normal people detest him for what's he's doing and Trump supporters detest him for not doing more of it faster. "Nobody," wrote Robillard, "wants to be on Team McConnell. Heading into the 2018 elections, only one Republican Senate candidate nationwide has pledged unequivocally to back Mitch McConnell as majority leader. Most Republicans facing competitive primaries are hemming and hawing, admiring McConnell’s political savvy and fundraising apparatus-- but also looking warily at his sinking approval ratings both with Republicans and the broader electorate. Even in some of the red and purple states represented by Democratic senators where McConnell is hoping to pad his majority-- places like Missouri, Michigan and Wisconsin-- the leading candidates are dodging questions about McConnell's leadership or threatening to oppose him if the GOP Congress doesn't deliver on the party's legislative priorities in the coming months." Much like Pelosi does, McConnell has given GOP candidates permission to crap on him if it helps them win. Corey Stewart (VA), Sandy Pensler (MI), Roy Moore (AL), Danny Tarkanian (NV), Kelli Ward (AZ), Kevin Nicholson (WI) and Leah Vukmir (WI)-- all long shots who are unlikely to ever get a chance vote for or against McConnell-- have all been publicly attacking him.

McConnell’s political allies insist they’ve seen all this before, and they are ready to fight it. Past insurgent Republican campaigns have run television ads bashing McConnell, only to lose in GOP primaries anyway. Candidates distancing themselves from party leaders in Washington, they argue, is now standard practice and smart politics.

Bannon and his allies instead see evidence of McConnell’s ineffectiveness and unpopularity.

“Why are Republicans candidates tweeting out selfies with Steve Bannon, while at the same time doing everything they can to publicly distance themselves from McConnell?” Andy Surabian, a top aide to Bannon, asked rhetorically. “Because they know that McConnell is an albatross, not only in GOP primaries, but more importantly in general elections.”

The electorate hates Congress but McConnell is considerably more unpopular than Schumer, Ryan or Pelosi. Roy Moore is banking on him being unpopular enough to base much of his campaign on attacking McConnell. If he wins (again) it will be a bad omen for McConnell's ability to remain as GOP Senate leader. Moore is actually popular with Republicans-- and not just in Alabama. He has come to personify their sense of grievance and their feelings of martyrdom. The general election voters-- which include Democrats and, more importantly, independents, absolutely hates Moore and sees him for exactly what he is. And Republican candidates are being asked to take a stand on him in races everywhere. In primary races they can't be too harsh but if they're not, general election voters will associate them with a sociopathic child molester.

As Alex Seitz-Wald reported for NBC News, "Democrats are hard at work pressing the issue, dusting off the 2012 playbook they used to make former GOP Senate candidate Todd Akin toxic to candidates across the country."

"There has to be clarity by all candidates about the issue of sexual harassment and specifically about the candidacy of Roy Moore," Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, the Senate's second-ranking Democrat, told NBC News.

After scoring an unexpected suburbs-fueled landslide in Virginia's election this month, Democratic officials and party strategists think Moore will be especially radioactive with suburban women.

The Democratic opposition research group American Bridge launched digital ads Wednesday attacking GOP Senate candidates about Moore in Arizona and Ohio, and was already running one in Nevada.



"Not only is the Roy Moore scandal hurting Republicans of all stripes, especially those who have been silent on Moore, but it's also exacerbating the GOP civil war between the establishment and the Bannon wing of the party," said American Bridge spokesperson Allison Teixeira Sulier.

"The GOP owns Moore, his scandals and his backwards beliefs," Sulier added. "And in the same way that Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock dragged their party down, Moore will, too."

A few months after Akin made headlines for talking about "legitimate rape" in Missouri, Indiana Senate candidate Mourdock handed more ammunition to Democrats when he defended his strict pro-life stance by saying pregnancy resulting in rape is "something that God intended to happen."

Democrats used Aiken and Mourdock in races in other states to portray other Republican candidates as extreme.

In Michigan, where Democrats are defending Sen. Debbie Stabenow's seat, Democratic Party Chair Brandon Dillon slammed both of the GOP candidates in the race for failing to "show the bare minimum of decency and leadership" by speaking out strongly against Moore.

Concern about collateral damage helps explain why one of the most forceful voices against Moore among Senate Republicans has been the chairman of their campaign arm, Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado, who vowed the Senate should expel Moore if he wins.

...Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), who has represented the state for 30 years, said on Wednesday that he's preparing to vote for a write-in candidate over Moore in the Dec. 12 election.

Asked by NBC News if Moore is damaging the GOP brand nationally, Shelby didn’t hesitate: "Absolutely. Absolutely. I think that's on everybody's mind.