What Would You Do If A Sitting Democratic President Became As Morally Deranged And As Dangerous To National Security As Trump Is?

 

The Wall Street Journal's Joe Flint reported, just before Trump's clownish town hall stunt yesterday, that "More than one hundred prominent actors, writers and producers are protesting NBC News’s decision to carry [the thing] opposite a previously scheduled Joe Biden town hall on rival ABC News." That must have triggered the Orange Clown because was was soon carrying on about NBC and pretending the town hall was their idea, not his campaign's. "So you know, I’m being set up tonight, right. I’m doing this town hall with Con-cast. So I’m doing it and it’s NBC. The worst... And so they asked me if I’d do it, and I figured what the hell, we’ve got a free hour on television."

What a disgusting excuse for a human being! During his super-spreader event in Greenville, North Carolina yesterday, Trump, pandering to his crowd said only Jesus is more famous than he is. Someone should tell him the difference between "famous" and "infamous."

I'd trust Caroline Giuliani-- Rudy's daughter-- to do it. Yesterday Vanity Fair published a piece by her urging everyone to vote for Biden and Kamala: "If being the daughter of a polarizing mayor who became the president’s personal bulldog has taught me anything, it is that corruption starts with 'yes-men' and women, the cronies who create an echo chamber of lies and subservience to maintain their proximity to power. We’ve seen this ad nauseam with Trump and his cadre of high-level sycophants (the ones who weren’t convicted, anyway)."

And that brings us right to Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse, who has spent 4 years making it perfectly clear that he knows exactly what a dangerous monstrosity Trump is-- dangerous to this country-- and never could muster the guts to do anything about it. Sasse, as you recall, voted against impeachment. Yesterday, right-wing propagandist David Drucker wrote that "Sasse, in a private call with constituents, excoriated President Trump, saying he had mishandled the coronavirus response, 'kisses dictators' butts,' 'sells out our allies,' spends 'like a drunken sailor,' mistreats women, and trash-talks evangelicals behind their backs. Trump has 'flirted with white supremacists,' according to Sasse, and his family 'treated the presidency like a business opportunity.' In what appears to be a conference call with his Nebraska constituents, Sasse said Trump could drive the Senate into the hand of the Democrats and cause permanent damage to the Republican Party. It is unclear when the call occurred, though it had to have happened well into this year because Sasse discusses Trump's handling of the coronavirus... Leading up to the state’s Republican primary earlier this year, Sasse tempered his periodic criticism of Trump, perhaps to keep his longshot GOP challenger at bay. But the senator resumed his occasional tongue-lashing once he secured the renomination. At least, that is how Sasse’s pro-Trump critics on the right have interpreted his public comments regarding the president."

"The debate," continued Sasse, "is not going to be, 'Ben Sasse, why were you so mean to Donald Trump?' It’s going to be, 'What the heck were any of us thinking, that selling a TV-obsessed, narcissistic individual to the American people was a good idea?' We are staring down the barrel of a blue tsunami." Ben Sasse is a traitor to his own principles, to his own constituents and to the United States of America. He thinks he's better than Trump; he isn't.

Spineless by Nancy Ohanian

Yesterday, Bulwark writer Richard Patterson was bemoaning spineless creeps like Sasse, noting that "because Trump is immutably pathological, he’s incapable of growth as a politician or president," implying-- strongly-- that Republicans have had years to figure this out and act as patriots instead of ass-lickers.

How did the GOP find itself in this desperate, seamy dilemma? The short answer is four years of subservience to Trump. But it is nonetheless instructive to consider what the party had become before his advent-- and how he might have helped save it had he been not only a normal person, but the unconventional political genius some conjured from the ether.

By 2012, the GOP had come to rely on a partially overlapping base of evangelicals; whites without college degrees threatened by economic dislocation; and malcontents whose distrust of government partook of paranoia. These folks were not natural allies of the party of business or its wealthy donors. In exchange for pursuing the economic agenda of the wealthy, the GOP increasingly offered up a primal vision rooted in culture wars, contempt for government, and scapegoating blacks, immigrants, Muslims and other minorities.

The real causes of blue-collar woes were globalization, the Great Recession, the housing crisis, and an information society which marginalized the undereducated. About this, the GOP elite did nothing-- not about student debt, stagnant wages, dwindling benefits, diminishing job security, retraining for the new economy, or the widespread unaffordability of quality medical care. The epitome of their nihilism was Ted Cruz: a grandstanding opportunist who tried to shut down the government while assembling a stunted coalition of evangelicals, gun fanatics, nativists, climate-change deniers, and Tea Party atavists.

By the primary season of 2016, that covered most of the GOP base. The party’s only realistic alternative to Cruz was an incendiary and ideologically unmoored interloper-- Donald Trump.

Had the RNC’s then-Chairman Reince Priebus and foresighted party officials and consultants gotten their way, this trajectory would have been different. After Mitt Romney lost in 2012, these seasoned professionals concluded that the GOP was headed for demographic oblivion. The result was the widely-touted “autopsy” which called for a comprehensive rethinking of Republican electoral strategy.

Its analysis was unsparing-- and proactive. The GOP had been “continually marginalizing itself,” said Sally Bradshaw, one of the autopsy’s authors. “We have lost the ability to be persuasive with or welcoming to those who don’t agree with us on every issue.”

The party, she added, “needs to do better with women” and to become “inviting and inspiring.” Another of the autopsy’s authors warned that “if our party isn’t welcoming and inclusive, young people and increasingly other voters will continue to tune us out.” Among the solutions proposed was an extensive outreach to women, African-Americans, Asians, Hispanics, and LGBT voters which included embracing “comprehensive immigration reform.”

But that last, in particular, ran athwart the nativist passions roiling much of the GOP base. Faced with their fury for his cosponsorship of an immigration reform bill, Marco Rubio folded. Broadening the party’s appeal, it seemed clear, would require a nominee with the vision and gifts to propitiate its restive electorate.

Enter Donald Trump. In 2013, he tweeted: “New @RNC report calls for embracing ‘comprehensive immigration reform.’ Does the @RNC have a death wish?”

Smart Republicans foresaw the consequences. Said Jon Huntsman in 2016: “The party itself is less consequential than ever before, and... the tribal differences are increasingly irreconcilable... If Trump prevails, he will have single-handedly upended the old Republican order and built a new movement in its place. The question then will be, is it sustainable?”

...Particularly problematic is that Trump’s appeal-- while fatally limited-- has among the base a visceral depth which transcends loyalty to the party, its elected officials, or whatever threadbare ideas it retains. The party of Trump has become a cult of personality suffused with authoritarianism.

...As president, Trump has pushed the boundaries of our constitutional democracy to achieve unprecedented executive power. Not only do his followers support this, but elected Republicans have done nothing to stop him.

The GOP is no longer about ideas like limited government, or the higher ideals of inclusiveness and an American Dream open to all. Its toxic compound of raw anger and nativist passion is, at bottom, about subjugating the demographic “other.”

Before Trump, the GOP’s better angels were already enfeebled. In 2016 he killed them off.

It is barely possible now to imagine the GOP had Trump been different. He came without ideology, propelled by a gift for embodying a potent but undefined populism. He might have become an agent of constructive reinvention, eschewing racism and xenophobia in favor of offering embattled middle-class and blue-collar workers genuine economic uplift. He could have reinstated fiscal responsibility by disdaining tax cuts for the wealthy. He might even have taken steps-- if not to drain the swamp-- at least to reform it.

But that would have required real talent, sustained attention, and a genuine interest in governance. Instead this irredeemably vicious, vacant, and narcissistic demagogue unleashed white identity politics and the endless overreach of Republican donors. This leads inexorably to the deadest of ends-- a demographic death knell for his party and, for our democracy, the most grievous of wounds.

Take a bow, Governors Charlie Baker (R-MA) and Larry Hogan (R-MD). This morning, the Washington Post reported that Hogan voted already-- and not for Señor Trumpanzee. And in a statement released yesterday by his office, Baker said "The governor cannot support Donald Trump for president and is focused on seeing Massachusetts through the pandemic."

How Many Republican Senators Will Lose Voters Over Amy Coney Barrett

 

A few days ago, writing for The Atlantic, Peter Nicholas noted that by moving forward so rapidly with the Supreme Court confirmation of a hardcore extremist like Amy Coney Barrett, Donald is "giving lawmakers little space to carve out an independent identity that could help them win reelection... [He] demands loyalty, but isn’t so quick to return it. Republican members of Congress have passed his bills, rationalized his behavior, kept him in power. Now, with a new Supreme Court vacancy, some of the GOP senators who risked the most in tethering themselves to Trump sorely need his help keeping them in power. He isn't guaranteed to deliver." It's an especially bad scene for senators in states with large numbers of independent voters, like Maine, Alaska and Colorado (Susan Collins, Dan Sullivan and Cory Gardner) but it could be harmful for Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC) Martha McSally (AZ), Steve Daines (MT) and even Lindsey Graham and the two Republican senators in Georgia as well.

Did you watch that ad the Lincoln Project released yesterday? It isn't about defeating Trump per se. It's about defeating his allies and enablers in the Senate. Watch it. I hope they run it in the appropriate states.

I think Dan Sullivan is especially in jeopardy. Alaska is a state with a massive number of independents and Sullivan has been a Trump lapdog. He has two opponents-- an actual independent, Al Gross, running with the backing of the Democratic Party, and a an even farther right kook, John Wayne Howe, who is likely to win 5-10% of Sullivan's base. Sullivan is going to vote for Barrett. Alaska's senior senator, which admired by independents, will not. It makes Sullivan look even more connected at the hip to Trump-- and you can't win a statewide race in Alaska without significant independent support.

Ben Jealous, the new president of People for the American Way, noted yesterday that PFAW knows a lot about Barrett. "We know she passes Trump's anti-health care litmus test with flying colors and would surely vote to end protections for people with preexisting conditions... even in the middle of a global pandemic. (And the ripping away of millions of Americans’ health care could come soon, as the Supreme Court is set to hear a challenge to the Affordable Care Act in its upcoming term that starts next month.) She’s also a nominee whose confirmation – giving Trump his THIRD Supreme Court justice and the Far Right a 6-3 majority on the Court-- could spell the end of Roe v. Wade and countless environmental protections, and imperil voting rights and social safety net programs like Social Security and Medicare. Amy Coney Barrett has been the Radical Right’s preferred nominee ever since she became an appellate court judge and was seen as a contender for the Supreme Court. The Far Right will be more fired up than ever to back this nominee… Anti-choice groups have already launched a 'Reverse Roe' tour in Senate battleground states…"

Lawless Zone by Nancy Ohanian

Kiss Of Death Endorsements: Trump And Pelosi

I know I don't have to interpret that Twitter poll for you, although if you don't know who Shahid Buttar is, he's the progressive Democrat who, along with Nancy Pelosi, came out of the March jungle primary and will face her one-on-one in November. (You can contribute to Shahid's campaign here, as you can see, the only candidate endorsed by this blog.)

After Pelosi exhibited startling, even breath-taking hypocrisy by endorsing Joe Kennedy III who is challenging incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey for his Massachusetts seat, just 6.8% of respondents said her endorsement will influence them to favor Kennedy or favor him more. On the other hand... well you can see.

Most Republican senators aren't asking for Trump's endorsement. Like Pelosi's, an endorsement by Trump is just toxic-- especially among independents. Sure, in states or districts that are so heavily Republican, an endorsement from Trump or Pence or Mitch McConnell would be a net plus... and in deep red House districts it makes sense to ask for an endorsement. Senate seats are different. Trump is still popular in Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma and the Dakotas but don't expect to see Trump endorsements being ballyhooed by incumbent senators where independent voters determine winners. I don't know what John Cornyn (R-TX) is going to do but I would bet that Susan Collins (ME), Cory Gardner (CO), Thom Tillis (NC), and Joni Ernst (IA) aren't going to be advertising-- at least not to a general audience on TV or radio-- that Trump is backing them.

On the other hand, in Alaska, where nearly half the voters are independents, there is a lot of ballyhooing of Trump's endorsement of Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan-- all of it from Independent Al Gross who is running on the Democratic Party line. I spoke with Gross' campaign manager yesterday and he was almost gleeful to have seen Trump endorse Sullivan. "I hope President Trump comes up here to campaign for Dan," he said. "A majority of the state doesn't approve of him, and with his help, we can make that 60%!" He sent me this:

Yesterday, Collins announced that part-time Maine resident George W. Bush-- remember, relative to Trump and for many people, the stink has worn off now-- has endorsed her-- his first endorsement of 2020. "The nod from the former president, whose politics appear centrist by Trump-era standards, may nudge some traditional Republicans into Collins’ corner," wrote David Sharp for the Associated Press. "Trump has not endorsed the Maine senator, whose race is among a handful critical to Republicans’ hopes of keeping control of the Senate, where they have a 53-47 advantage. Collins, meanwhile, has not said whether she intends to vote for Trump." Fellow New England Republican, Governor Phil Scott (R-VT) made an announcement yesterday that leaves no doubt he doesn't want and would not accept Trump's endorsement: "I won't be voting for President Trump... I have not decided, at this point, whether to cast a vote for former Vice President Biden... something I would consider."

After Pelosi's endorsement of Joe Kennedy III infuriated progressives-- not as much because of the pick as because of Pelosi's disgusting hyocrisy-- AOC sent her followers a fundraising letter from her own campaign but for for Markey, a staffer explaining the double standard:

Last year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee instituted a new blacklist-- targeting staffers and companies who worked for primary challengers. Unsurprisingly, that overwhelmingly targeted people who worked with progressives.

Now, it’s clear: That blacklist was never just meant to "protect incumbents." It was meant to block progressive leaders from being elected, like Ayanna Pressley, Jamaal Bowman, Cori Bush, or even Alexandria in 2018.

...Markey is not taking the safe route. He’s causing good trouble in Washington, fighting for international peace, a Green New Deal, and dismantling ICE. These are hard fights to win. Many look at them and back down. But not Ed Markey.

Markey is listening to the next generation of leaders-- the young folks on the ground working day in and day out to change the world-- and does everything in his power to amplify their voices on Capitol Hill. If Washington had more leaders like Ed Markey, we’d be a lot better off.

Scary that Pelosi is no longer self-aware enough to understand that her endorsement really is a kiss of death in most places in the country-- even in as blue a state as Massachusetts. Isn't she supposed to be retiring now and passing along her seat to her daughter? You know, the dynasty thing-- like the Kennedys.

Stooges

The first time I recall ever having heard of Jennifer Horn was in 2008 when she ran for Congress against Paul Hodes (D-NH). In 2011 the very conservative Horn was elected chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party. No fan of Trump, though, she was a founder of the Lincoln Project and serves as a communications stagey consultant for the group-- in other words therapy her to write anti-Trump hit pieces like the one that was published by USA Today, Why Trump's Republican Senate enablers must be ousted this fall: Former NH GOP chair, yesterday. It was about Trump Stooge, the ad (up top) that the Lincoln Project produced and is running in Maine, an ad that is extremely damaging to Susan Collins.

"The Lincoln Project," wrote Horn, "generated strong criticism within Republican circles last week for 'going after' a member of the Republican majority in the Senate. We had released an ad comparing Sen. Susan Collins unfavorably to past senators from her state of Maine, including Margaret Chase Smith-- best known for being one of the few Republicans to stand up to Joe McCarthy and McCarthyism. Chase Smith was fearless and will be forever remembered for her 'Declaration of Conscience' speech in which she called out national leadership and declared the rights to protest, criticize and hold independent thoughts as basic principles of 'Americanism.' It is hard for any serious student of history to deny the common themes of McCarthyism and Trumpism. Both are constructed on a foundation of 'us vs. them,' suspicion of those who were not born in America, attempts to silence protest and dissent, and demonizing those who hold independent or unpopular beliefs. Margaret Chase Smith was a heroine of freedom. Susan Collins is not. And neither is any other Republican currently serving in the Senate, with the exception of Utah's Mitt Romney."

Mitt Romney? A hero of freedom? I don't think so, but remember, these #NeverTrump conservatives are... conservatives. They don't like Trump because they find him odious in the way most Americans do, but also because they judge him to not be a conservative.

Living in fear of a mean Trump tweet

The Republican majority in the Senate has become nothing more than protection racket for a president who has repeatedly declared he would accept foreign assistance in his campaigns and was impeached for trying to get a foreign leader to help him win.

And the Republican Party is angry that some of us refuse to go along for the ride. That includes the Lincoln Project, which is dedicated to the electoral defeat of Trump and Trumpism.

Donald Trump’s three-and-a-half years in office have been a relentless assault on the foundational principles of American democracy. He has driven the divides within our communities, undermined our ability to stand as an example to other nations, and battered our Constitution to within an inch of its life.

The president has sought to isolate our nation from our allies, cozied up to tyrants and dictators and defended white nationalists. He has attacked the free press and our right to protest and fired a military colonel for telling the truth about Trump’s corruption.

Last year, in a shocking action during these times of confirmed, corrupt attempts by America’s enemies to influence the outcome of our presidential elections, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, a Tennessee Republican, blocked a requirement that political campaigns report offers of assistance from foreign nations to the FBI. Trump thanked her publicly.

Now he is so mismanaging our response to a global pandemic that we have lost over 155,000 American lives.

Rather than strengthening their resolve to preserve the great ideal of America, Republican senators have become progressively more anemic in their response to this wannabe strongman of a president. They have become puny and faint-hearted, spineless and weak-willed. They have proven they are not worthy of the constitutional responsibilities bestowed upon them by their election to the esteemed United States Senate.

Worst of all, for over a year, Trump has ignored U.S. intelligence assessments that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be paying bounties to the Taliban for killing our soldierson the battlefield. Every day, hundreds of thousands of America’s sons and daughters wake up prepared to give their lives in defense of our nation, in defense of you and me and our families, and Republican senators remain feeble and limp before this president, living in fear of a mean tweet.

No heroic senators running this year

Throughout our history, our leaders have been the most eloquent and persuasive voices for freedom in the world. From Thomas Jefferson’s Declaration of Independence to Abraham Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation to Martin Luther King’s “content of character” speech, they have woven together the story of independence and freedom, inspiring Americans to rise up together, to fight and sacrifice for together, in defense of what makes our nation unique among all others.

When freedom and Americanism fall under attack by our own president, it is incumbent upon our leaders, regardless of party, to become defenders of liberty and voices for freedom. Margaret Chase Smith was one such American leader, responding to the attacks on liberty from within our own country; her voice will be heard throughout history as a guardian of freedom and democracy.

There are no such heroic voices among the Republican senators up for reelection today.

They have been cowed by this president. They have been silent when the country needs them to speak, weak when our nation needs their strength. And every one of them should expect to be held accountable one way or another. The Susan Collins ad will not be the Lincoln Project's last one reminding voters of these Republican senators' fealty and weakness.

Voting against a bill that would have failed anyway, opposing a procedural motion and dismissing the president’s threatening tweets as “jokes” does not excuse their feebleness in face of the grave danger Trump poses.

Elections are about leadership and accountability. Republicans will pay a price for lacking both.

Yesterday, Kyle Kondik at Sabato's Crystal Ball listed the dozen most likely Senate seats to flip, in ranked order. My list is a little different-- and a bit less optimistic . Democrats are not going to beat Cornyn (TX) and Ossoff is too weak a candidate to seriously take on Perdue (GA). The other Georgia Senate race is a jungle ballot with the top 2 candidates facing off January 5 if no candidate gets 50%, which isn't possible. In fact, there's a chance-- albeit a slim one-- that the runoff will be between appointed, corrupt incumbent Kelly Loeffler (R) and crackpot wingnut Doug Collins (R) with Raphael Warnock (D) and the son of the odious Joe Lieberman splintering the Democratic vote. Anyway, here's my list of most endangered to least endangered (albeit still endangered):

• Martha McSally (R-AZ)
• Cory Gardner (R-CO)
• Doug Jones (D-AL)
• Susan Collins (R-ME)
• Thom Tillis (R-NC)
• Steve Daines (R-MT)
• Joni Ernst (R-IA)
• Dan Sullivan (R-AK)

And, if God intercedes to teach the Republicans a lesson: David Perdue (GA) and Lindsey Graham (SC).

The Lincoln Project Goes After Another GOP Scalp-- In Alaska

As you may know, I love the work the Lincoln Project does, especially their attacks on Trump, which are very harsh and very effective and, by all reports, driving Trump insane. The Lincoln Project, I should mention, is made up of conservative Republicans (and in some cases, conservative ex-Republicans) who, generally speaking, would like to overturn women's Choice, slash government regulation of predatory businesses, Make War Not Love and gut Social Security and Medicare. Other than that... I love these guys. They're doing a better job than the DNC eviscerating Señor Trumpanzee.

And they've been going after Republican senators too. Those ads seem, generally, more half-hearted and less... bloodthirsty. There was an exception with their Arizona ads against weak, appointed incumbent Martha McSally. Those were the kind of killer, vicious ads we expect from these GOP operatives-turned-anti-GOP. But most of the Senate ads were more like this Steve Bullock ad-- decent but not awesome-- nor even memorable. They don't even mention his opponent, Steve Daines, just flash a photo of him. The overall, anti-Republican senators ad was good and up to their high standards, but the specific ones... not so much. And they released another one like that today. This ad-- up top-- against for Independent Al Gross looks like it will be very effective in a soft, friendly way, but... no mention of Sullivan, Gross' Trump-loving GOP opponent. (I just saw the ad they released attacking Susan Collins this morning. This is what I call kickass)

I understand that they bought almost 2,000 points of prime airtime that will saturate Alaska all week, sure to knock the already unpopular Sullivan on his ass, especially with Gross running his own very powerful ad right now as well (below). An average voter has to see an ad at least 10 times for it to have an impact; the Lincoln Project's 2,000 points will amount to an average of 17 points. That has some meaning, especially with a candidate like Gross who hasn't run for office before and has relatively low name recognition.

I'm just spitballing here but I was wondering why the Lincoln Project did such good ads against McSally and and a pretty strong one for Gross, while just going through the motions on many of the other Republican senators. Then one of the principals' name popped in my head, Steve Schmidt. He's probably the one overseeing the ads; that's his specialty. And he was de-facto McCain campaign manager. He probably loathes the fact that McSally is sullying McCain's old seat with her supine, spineless obeisance to Trump... but what about Sullivan? That's more interesting and nuanced.

Schmidt's worst moment was the "credit" he gets for persuading McCain to make the absolutely catastrophic Sarah Palin running mate choice. That became the blackest mark against Schmidt in his entire political career. And, on one level, it was Dan Sullivan's fault. I'm guessing that this ad was the payback, whether consciously or unconsciously.

Schmidt asked his cool pal Karl Rove for his suggestion for a running mate. Rove, who is close to Sullivan's wealthy parents in Ohio, suggested Schmidt talk to their son, who was serving under like known Alaska Governor Palin as her Attorney General. Schmidt called Sullivan who persuaded him Palin would be a solid candidate... and that was the end of the McCain campaign and, for some time, Schmidt's reputation.

How lucky is Al Gross! I can't wait for the follow up to the soft one. I suspect the next Lincoln Project ad in Alaska is going to be more...cutting edge (and throat cutting for Dan Sullivan). I notice they put down another $580,000 in TV ad buys and I bet it isn't for this soft, getting-to-know-you ad. (So that's a cool million bucks Steve Schmidt is throwing against the guy who foisted Sarah Palin on him! And a million bucks on Alaska media is a lot of money.)

Alaska Can Determine Which Party Controls The Senate-- And Which Candidate Becomes President

Senate candidate John Wayne wants Alaska to secede-- or at least to not pay any taxes

Yesterday, writing for the Washington Post, Seung Min Kim reported that "Republican senators up for reelection this fall in tight races have been unwilling to publicly criticize Trump as he continues to fan racial tensions and struggles to control a pandemic that has devastated the economy and killed close to 130,000 Americans. But they are being careful not to embrace him either. In their campaign ads back home, it’s as if the unpopular incumbent president doesn’t exist, as Republicans choose instead to highlight their own achievements or go on the attack against their Democratic challengers. This deliberate approach underscores the difficult position Republicans find themselves in as they head into an election season that looks increasingly grim for the party. The senators don’t want to clash with Trump and rile up his stable of loyal supporters whose votes they will need to be reelected, but they also don’t want to hug him tightly him and turn off more moderate voters whose views of the president have turned negative."

Even in Alaska? The spineless, worthless Democrats don't even run federal candidates there. Two unpopular Republican incumbents, Senator Dan Sullivan and Rep. Don Young, are up for reelection in November and the hollow shell of a Democratic Party is backing two independent candidates, Al Gross for Senate and Alyse Galvin for House. Sullivan is so dazed and confused that he isn't even running any ads. And Young's ads are all about the glories of shooting wolves out of low-flying planes or about his gigantic antler collection from all the dead moose he's slaughtered. No one's mentioning Trump, even though he beat Hillary 163,387 (51.3%) to 116,454 (36.5%) with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 5.9%. Alaskans like independents. In fact, that's why Sullivan should feel nervous.

PPP released a fascinating poll results from Alaska yesterday. One of my favorite bits of info isn't about either 2020 race. Respondents were asked if they approve or disapprove of Senator Lisa Murkowski. 55% disapproved and just 29% approve. That's much worse than results of the same question asked about Trump. 46% approve and 49% disapprove. Nonetheless, when voters were asked "Who do you have a higher opinion of: Lisa Murkowski or Donald Trump? ," they picked Murkowski 48% to 45% for Trump.

I doubt Trump is going to lose Alaska's 3 electoral votes. Alaskans don't like him or Biden (who has a 53% unfavorable rating to overcome) but when picking between the lesser evil, people PPP asked-- 21% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 44% independents-- it was very close:

The Senate race is strange-- politics in Alaska is strange. Voters disapprove of the job-- basically rubber-stamping Trump on everything-- Sullivan has done: 35% approve, 37% disapprove, one of the lowest approvals of any sitting U.S. senator this year. Most people (72%) don't know who Al Gross is yet or haven't made up their minds about him Voters are torn between the two candidates:

But what PPP doesn't get into is John Wayne. There's a third independent on the ballot, John Wayne Howe-- on the Alaska Independence Party ballot line. John Wayne is running to Sullivan's (and Gross') right. The front page of his campaign website makes it clear where he stands: "We are buffeted by many ills from government. Foremost in my mind is taxation. The government; Federal, State, borough, city, all are thieves. Even when the spending comes from a vote of the people it is stealing, the only difference is those that voted for spending are now also guilty. How do we fund government without theft? It may sound as a joke, until you spend a few weeks thinking about it, but the funding Must come from individuals voluntarily giving. This is the only way government will ever be responsive to the people. If government is not voluntary, it is a dictatorship. I will do all I can to end taxes."

His campaign is also exciting NRA fans-- and Alaska has plenty of them-- because he's running on a platform about passing a law to allow transporting military assault weapons across state lines. He'll probably take 10% of the vote-- and that will come right off the top of the GOP's electorate.

Meanwhile Gross is attempting to appeal an organic base of support that cuts across partisan lines. The Democratic Party has endorsed him and will work for him and the DSCC is helping him raise money. And he has a growing following of voters that Democrats historically have not been able to identify with: rural voters, hunters, fishermen, etc. So far he hasn’t run a dime of paid communications, which he will need to do to bring up his name recognition. As of the March 31 FEC reporting deadline he had raised a massive $3,020,756, so presumably he will be running a major TV and radio ad campaign.

As for Sullivan, he has zero street cred in Alaska and can’t turn to his rich parents in their Ohio country club to get it. Maybe he should run for office there.

As far as the at-large House seat, voters disapprove of Don Young 44-35%, while Alyse Galvin has a 30-22% favorable rating among the same voters. SO who would they vote for if the election were held today?

If Trump manages to drive a close electoral college battle into the House-- something we looked at a few days ago-- flipping the Alaska House delegation from red to blue, could determine who the next president is!

Trump Says He "Loves" Alaska But Everyone Knows He Only Loves Trump

In the 2000 election, 167,398 Alaskans (58.62%) voted for George W Bush against Al Gore. Four years later 190,889 Alaskans (61.07%) voted for Bush against John Kerry. Bush was popular among Alaskan voters-- who also backed John McCain (59.42%) and Mitt Romney (54.80%). But Trump isn't well liked by most Alaskans. He barely eked out a majority against Hillary-- 51.28%, pretty sad compared to Bush. And today it was widely reported that Bush had decided he will neither endorse nor even vote for Trump in November. Colin Powell, Bush's Secretary of State, told Jake Tapper on State of the Union that he "certainly can not in any way support" Trump this year and that Trump has "drifted away" from the Constitution, has been an ineffective president, and "lies all the time." Trump's response was to tweet that Powell is "a real stiff." He hasn't savaged Bush yet. None of this is going to make Alaskan independents more likely to back Trump. Independent voters decide who wins elections in Alaska.

Right now, Alaska has two Republican U.S. senators-- Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, the former an independent-minded conservative and the latter a knee-jerk boot-licker for Trump. Sullivan, who is rumored to be considering dropping out of his reelection bid and allowing Gov. Dunleavey to take the GOP nomination so that he (Sullivan) can run for Governor in 2022, is in a toss up race against independent Dr. Al Gross, who has been endorsed by the Democratic Party. Murkowski isn't up for reelection until 2022. But she already has an opponent: Señor Trumpanzee.

As we saw yesterday, she praised Jim Mattis' criticism of Trump and told a journalist she is "struggling" with the idea of backing his reelection. The most thin-skinned sociopath in American politics immediately flipped his wig and let loose with these two nasty, adolescent tweets:

After embarrassing himself by attacking and threatening a senior Republican senator-- despite having promised McConnell he wouldn't do that in return for McConnell's unwavering obeisance-- Trump lavished praise on all the GOP senators most likely to lose in November because of his reverse coattails: David Perdue (R-GA), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Cory Gardner (R-CO), Martha McSally (R-AZ), Thom Tillis (R-NC), Steve Daines (R-MT) and, of course, Dan Sullivan. Sullivan is such a nonentity in DC that Trump couldn't even think of a single thing to say about him... so just retweeted 5 random Sullivan tweets from May 22, 23 and June 2.

The Anchorage Daily News reminded its readers that "During the 2016 presidential campaign, both Murkowski and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) called on Trump to drop out of the race after the release of a video in which the GOP nominee boasted in vulgar language about forcing himself sexually on women. Both said they weren’t voting for him at the time."

This morning, Gross told me that "Alaskans appreciate when their elected officials take a stand and have a backbone. We can all respectfully disagree with one another, but at the end of the day, Alaskans want to be represented by independents-- people who aren't beholden to an orthodoxy, a party, or an ideology-- because here in Alaska if  you can't think for  yourself, you just won't survive. Dan Sullivan doesn't understand this because he doesn't understand Alaska. He's not from here, and has been solely focused on climbing the National Republican political ladder. I have zero interest in climbing any political ladder. My focus is on making Alaskans' lives better. That's my focus and always will be. I'm Always Alaska."