Alaska Can Determine Which Party Controls The Senate-- And Which Candidate Becomes President

Senate candidate John Wayne wants Alaska to secede-- or at least to not pay any taxes

Yesterday, writing for the Washington Post, Seung Min Kim reported that "Republican senators up for reelection this fall in tight races have been unwilling to publicly criticize Trump as he continues to fan racial tensions and struggles to control a pandemic that has devastated the economy and killed close to 130,000 Americans. But they are being careful not to embrace him either. In their campaign ads back home, it’s as if the unpopular incumbent president doesn’t exist, as Republicans choose instead to highlight their own achievements or go on the attack against their Democratic challengers. This deliberate approach underscores the difficult position Republicans find themselves in as they head into an election season that looks increasingly grim for the party. The senators don’t want to clash with Trump and rile up his stable of loyal supporters whose votes they will need to be reelected, but they also don’t want to hug him tightly him and turn off more moderate voters whose views of the president have turned negative."

Even in Alaska? The spineless, worthless Democrats don't even run federal candidates there. Two unpopular Republican incumbents, Senator Dan Sullivan and Rep. Don Young, are up for reelection in November and the hollow shell of a Democratic Party is backing two independent candidates, Al Gross for Senate and Alyse Galvin for House. Sullivan is so dazed and confused that he isn't even running any ads. And Young's ads are all about the glories of shooting wolves out of low-flying planes or about his gigantic antler collection from all the dead moose he's slaughtered. No one's mentioning Trump, even though he beat Hillary 163,387 (51.3%) to 116,454 (36.5%) with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 5.9%. Alaskans like independents. In fact, that's why Sullivan should feel nervous.

PPP released a fascinating poll results from Alaska yesterday. One of my favorite bits of info isn't about either 2020 race. Respondents were asked if they approve or disapprove of Senator Lisa Murkowski. 55% disapproved and just 29% approve. That's much worse than results of the same question asked about Trump. 46% approve and 49% disapprove. Nonetheless, when voters were asked "Who do you have a higher opinion of: Lisa Murkowski or Donald Trump? ," they picked Murkowski 48% to 45% for Trump.

I doubt Trump is going to lose Alaska's 3 electoral votes. Alaskans don't like him or Biden (who has a 53% unfavorable rating to overcome) but when picking between the lesser evil, people PPP asked-- 21% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 44% independents-- it was very close:

The Senate race is strange-- politics in Alaska is strange. Voters disapprove of the job-- basically rubber-stamping Trump on everything-- Sullivan has done: 35% approve, 37% disapprove, one of the lowest approvals of any sitting U.S. senator this year. Most people (72%) don't know who Al Gross is yet or haven't made up their minds about him Voters are torn between the two candidates:

But what PPP doesn't get into is John Wayne. There's a third independent on the ballot, John Wayne Howe-- on the Alaska Independence Party ballot line. John Wayne is running to Sullivan's (and Gross') right. The front page of his campaign website makes it clear where he stands: "We are buffeted by many ills from government. Foremost in my mind is taxation. The government; Federal, State, borough, city, all are thieves. Even when the spending comes from a vote of the people it is stealing, the only difference is those that voted for spending are now also guilty. How do we fund government without theft? It may sound as a joke, until you spend a few weeks thinking about it, but the funding Must come from individuals voluntarily giving. This is the only way government will ever be responsive to the people. If government is not voluntary, it is a dictatorship. I will do all I can to end taxes."

His campaign is also exciting NRA fans-- and Alaska has plenty of them-- because he's running on a platform about passing a law to allow transporting military assault weapons across state lines. He'll probably take 10% of the vote-- and that will come right off the top of the GOP's electorate.

Meanwhile Gross is attempting to appeal an organic base of support that cuts across partisan lines. The Democratic Party has endorsed him and will work for him and the DSCC is helping him raise money. And he has a growing following of voters that Democrats historically have not been able to identify with: rural voters, hunters, fishermen, etc. So far he hasn’t run a dime of paid communications, which he will need to do to bring up his name recognition. As of the March 31 FEC reporting deadline he had raised a massive $3,020,756, so presumably he will be running a major TV and radio ad campaign.

As for Sullivan, he has zero street cred in Alaska and can’t turn to his rich parents in their Ohio country club to get it. Maybe he should run for office there.

As far as the at-large House seat, voters disapprove of Don Young 44-35%, while Alyse Galvin has a 30-22% favorable rating among the same voters. SO who would they vote for if the election were held today?

If Trump manages to drive a close electoral college battle into the House-- something we looked at a few days ago-- flipping the Alaska House delegation from red to blue, could determine who the next president is!