How Many Republican Senators Will Lose Voters Over Amy Coney Barrett

 

A few days ago, writing for The Atlantic, Peter Nicholas noted that by moving forward so rapidly with the Supreme Court confirmation of a hardcore extremist like Amy Coney Barrett, Donald is "giving lawmakers little space to carve out an independent identity that could help them win reelection... [He] demands loyalty, but isn’t so quick to return it. Republican members of Congress have passed his bills, rationalized his behavior, kept him in power. Now, with a new Supreme Court vacancy, some of the GOP senators who risked the most in tethering themselves to Trump sorely need his help keeping them in power. He isn't guaranteed to deliver." It's an especially bad scene for senators in states with large numbers of independent voters, like Maine, Alaska and Colorado (Susan Collins, Dan Sullivan and Cory Gardner) but it could be harmful for Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC) Martha McSally (AZ), Steve Daines (MT) and even Lindsey Graham and the two Republican senators in Georgia as well.

Did you watch that ad the Lincoln Project released yesterday? It isn't about defeating Trump per se. It's about defeating his allies and enablers in the Senate. Watch it. I hope they run it in the appropriate states.

I think Dan Sullivan is especially in jeopardy. Alaska is a state with a massive number of independents and Sullivan has been a Trump lapdog. He has two opponents-- an actual independent, Al Gross, running with the backing of the Democratic Party, and a an even farther right kook, John Wayne Howe, who is likely to win 5-10% of Sullivan's base. Sullivan is going to vote for Barrett. Alaska's senior senator, which admired by independents, will not. It makes Sullivan look even more connected at the hip to Trump-- and you can't win a statewide race in Alaska without significant independent support.

Ben Jealous, the new president of People for the American Way, noted yesterday that PFAW knows a lot about Barrett. "We know she passes Trump's anti-health care litmus test with flying colors and would surely vote to end protections for people with preexisting conditions... even in the middle of a global pandemic. (And the ripping away of millions of Americans’ health care could come soon, as the Supreme Court is set to hear a challenge to the Affordable Care Act in its upcoming term that starts next month.) She’s also a nominee whose confirmation – giving Trump his THIRD Supreme Court justice and the Far Right a 6-3 majority on the Court-- could spell the end of Roe v. Wade and countless environmental protections, and imperil voting rights and social safety net programs like Social Security and Medicare. Amy Coney Barrett has been the Radical Right’s preferred nominee ever since she became an appellate court judge and was seen as a contender for the Supreme Court. The Far Right will be more fired up than ever to back this nominee… Anti-choice groups have already launched a 'Reverse Roe' tour in Senate battleground states…"

Lawless Zone by Nancy Ohanian