Ralph Abraham (R-LA)-- Far Right Congressman, Gubernatorial Candidate And Drug Pusher

Ralph Abraham is the ultimate politician scumbag. An anti-immigrant fanatic, his grandparents immigration to the U.S. from Lebanon. He studied to be a veterinarian, although he claims to be a people doctor now. He's also a Republican gubernatorial candidate who started serving in Congress in 2015, representing the very red (R+15) 5th district-- where Trump beat Hillary 63.5% to 34.1%. The district is the whole northeast of the state, bordering on Mississippi and Arkansas. Alexandria is the only actual city.

His gubernatorial candidacy was dealt a possibly fatal blow on Wednesday when the Bayou Brief exposed him as a drug dealer. Two small town pharmacies he owns in the district, one in Mangham and one in Winnsboro (12.5 miles away), sold 1,478,236 doses of opioids for towns with around 6,000 people. Lamar White, Jr. wrote that "Abraham has been openly enthusiastic about his support for opioid treatments, once suggesting that the drugs are far less dangerous and much more effective than medical marijuana. Five years ago, during an October 2014 debate for Congress, Abraham claimed he did not support 'the legalization of marijuana on any level... Again, as a physician, let me tell you. What I see in my practice, from any level of marijuana use, is bad,' Abraham stated. 'I’m against recreational, I’m against medical. In the medical profession, for these chronic pain, poor cancer patients that need help, we have other alternatives that work better, Dilaudid, OxyContin, you name it, Oxycodone, we have several options that do a much better job for chronic pain.'" That's what he was pushing on his (human) patients, in many cases, a death sentence.

“I’ve had hundreds of patients unfortunately with cancer that I’ve treated, they do well with these drugs,” he continued.

According to the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control, opioid overdoses surged an astonishing 14% in 2014, which was largely a consequence of physicians overprescribing the drugs. Abraham’s home parish of Richland is one of the least populated in the state, ranking 46th of 64, yet according to the most recent estimate, it ranks as the 8th worst in opioid prescriptions. As of 2017, for every 100 people in Richland, there were an astonishing 113 opioid prescriptions.

“Opioids-- mainly synthetic opioids (other than methadone)-- are currently the main driver of drug overdose deaths,” states the CDC. “Opioids were involved in 47,600 overdose deaths in 2017. A staggering 67.8% of all drug overdose deaths are due to opioids, and while nationwide these numbers have declined, Louisiana is one of a handful of states in which deaths from opioid overdoses have increased.

During the past year, overdose deaths went up by 4.7% in Louisiana.

“Louisiana also ranks among the top 10 states with the most opioid prescriptions written per capita, according to its state’s lawsuit against 17 companies, including Purdue Pharma,” according to a report published yesterday by APG Wisconsin. “Since 2007, the state has spent at least $677 million ‘for treatment of opioid use and dependence.’”

During the seven-year timeframe, Abraham’s pharmacy in Winnsboro doubled the number of opioids it dispensed to patients; opioid prescriptions filled at his pharmacy in Mangham, which is located near his former medical clinic, surged a staggering 67%.

In Mangham (2017 population: 638), Abraham’s pharmacy supplied enough opioid medication to provide every man, woman, and child 6.1 doses every year (or 43 pills in total) for seven consecutive years; his pharmacy in Winnsboro (2017 population: 4,652) could have provided every resident 4.4 doses per year (or 31 in total). (Note: Annual doses per person were based on Census estimates, not the most recent American Community Survey).

Thus far, the only publicly-available data concerns manufacturers, distributors, and pharmacies filling the medications, but there is significant pressure for the government to also identify the physicians responsible for writing a substantial number of opioid prescriptions, particularly those who, like Abraham, also maintain ownership interests in nearby pharmacies.

...Aside from the staggering volume of opioids that Abraham’s two rural pharmacies dispensed from 2006 to 2012, there is one other detail that is impossible to ignore: With only one insignificant exception, he ordered all of his supply, nearly 1.5 million doses, from a single distributor, the Shreveport-based, family-owned company Morris & Dickson.

Morris & Dickson is the second-largest opioid distributor in the state of Louisiana, or at least it once was.

On May 2nd, 2018, the DEA suspended the company from distributing controlled substances, after a months-long investigation revealed it had been supplying pharmacies with massive shipments of opioids, in direct violation of the law.

“In October 2017, DEA became aware of the high-volume sales of Oxycodone and Hydrocodone from Morris and Dickson Company to five of the top ten purchasing pharmacies within the state of Louisiana,” the federal agency announced in a press release. “DEA records indicated that Morris and Dickson Company had not filed any suspicious order reports on any of the pharmacies in question in Louisiana.”

It was the first time the DEA had issued a such a suspension since 2012. “Not only were numerous ‘independent’ retail pharmacies purchasing more Oxycodone and Hydrocodone than the largest chain pharmacies operating within the state, they were purchasing more narcotics than several of the largest chain pharmacies combined within the same zip code,” the DEA explained. “In some instances, DEA noted these ‘independent’ pharmacies were purchasing more than ten times the amount of narcotics the average Louisiana pharmacy purchased per month.”

Yet only sixteen days after it issued the suspension, the DEA withdrew it, according to an announcement made on the company’s Facebook page.

Only months prior, the company’s president, Paul Dickson, was Ralph Abraham’s guest at the State of the Union.

Dickson, a prolific donor to Republican politicians and PACs, has already contributed the maximum to Abraham’s gubernatorial campaign; so has Dickson’s wife. Dickson was recently named as a member of Abraham’s campaign finance committee.

In May of this year, his company agreed to pay $22 million in civil penalties to settle charges it had violated the Controlled Substances Act. “In addition to paying $22 million in settlement funds, Morris & Dickson also agreed during the course of the negotiations to make significant upgrades to its compliance program by investing millions of dollars to hire additional staff and implement new protocols and standards to ensure compliance with federal regulations requiring them to report suspicious orders of controlled substances,” the Shreveport Times reported.

Seven months ago, a person from northeast Louisiana posted a troubling and potentially explosive allegation as a comment on Facebook in response to one of the Bayou Brief’s previous reports on U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham. According to the individual, whose identity we have confirmed but are withholding out of concerns for personal and professional retaliation, the physician-turned-congressman had been known as a leading prescriber of powerful opioids, some of the most addictive and deadliest medications on the market.

The comment remained online for over 48 hours before the person, perhaps wisely, decided to delete it. I had reached out privately, both to express my appreciation for their courage and to caution them about the potential backlash they could receive.

The person, who lived in the vicinity of both pharmacies, claimed direct knowledge of the doctor’s preferred way to treat and manage patients suffering from pain, which Abraham has already essentially confirmed. They also offered to contact two others who were forced to seek treatment after becoming addicted to opioids they had allegedly received either from Dr. Abraham or through one of the two rural pharmacies he owned in the area.

However, speaking publicly about an addiction, particularly in the context of a political campaign, is incredibly challenging, and understandably, after thoroughly considering the potential public scrutiny, they decided to refrain from conducting an on-the-record interview. Still, for anyone who has read the Washington Post’s reporting or reviewed the DEA’s database, the details of this person’s experience should not be surprising; millions of Americans have had similar experiences and struggles.

One would think, at the very least, that Abraham would support the bipartisan effort to hold these pharmaceutical companies for misrepresenting a potentially and highly addictive lethal drug, creating what can fairly be characterized as an epidemic and a crisis, and pocketing billions of dollars in profit as a direct result.

Yet Ralph Abraham has repeatedly expressed his opposition to lawsuits filed against opioid distributors and manufacturers, arguing that these pharmaceutical companies are merely meeting the market’s demand.

In 2017, during an interview on Talk 1073, the congressman was directly asked his opinion on the lawsuits, and he twice claimed not to know of any “objective data” linking the misleading practices of opioid manufacturers with the proliferation of prescriptions and fatal overdoses.

“I wanna get some objective data first, and I don’t want it to be you know, like some of these large class-action suits that we have had in the past, where they just throw the baby out with the bathwater,” he said, presumably referring to either the class action suits against tobacco companies or against BP in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon disaster. “So you know, let’s see where the problem lies. You’re correct, the manufacturers are simply meeting a demand that is being, maybe, abused by some physicians. Certainly abused, illicitly, by some street dealers.”

  Earlier in the same interview, Abraham acknowledged being fearful of having the Drug Enforcement Agency monitoring physicians who write “long-term” prescriptions for opioids.

He was not referring to himself when he spoke about the drugs “being, maybe, abused by some physicians,” and he has never disclosed how many of the opioid prescriptions he wrote for patients were filled at one of his pharmacies.

In fact, he has continually claimed that he gave up the practice of medicine in order to serve in Congress, though his own financial disclosure reports seem to directly contradict that assertion.

There is at least one prominent Republican in Louisiana who adamantly agrees with the lawsuits against opioid manufacturers, distributors, and prescribers: state Attorney General Jeff Landry. He calls it “one of the (state’s) most challenging and complex problems,” estimating that the opioid epidemic is already costing Louisiana more than $160 million every year.

More importantly though, it’s costing Louisiana more than 1,000 lives annually and thousands more to seek treatment for drug dependency. Incidentally, drug and alcohol addiction facilities have also poured big money into Abraham’s campaign. They apparently believe he’s good for their business, and it’s difficult to argue otherwise.

The Midterms: Random Fact, Figures

Monday, the Cook Report listed 50 interesting facts about last month's midterm elections. Here are the ones I found most interesting, some combined:

It was the highest turnout in a midterm election since 1914 and the first time a majority of eligible voters (50.3%) cast ballots since women gained the right to vote; Trump was mentioned in 16% of all congressional ads.

Democrats won about 9.7 million more votes for House than Republicans (8.6%)-- the largest midterm raw vote margin ever and the largest percentage margin since 1986. The 40 (net) flipped seats was the largest net gain for the party since the Watergate midterm of 1974.

After 2018, House Dems will represent 78% of all Whole Foods Market locations (up from 65% today), but just 27% of all Cracker Barrel Old Country Store locations (up from 21% today). Of the 43 districts Democrats flipped from Republican control, 69% contain a Whole Foods Market.

The average age of the top three Democratic leaders in the House (Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn) is 79 years old. The average age of the 62 incoming Democratic House freshmen is 45 years old. This is the largest freshmen vs. leadership age differential in modern history.



When the House convenes in January, 90% of House Republicans will be white men, compared to just 38% of House Democrats. This is the widest demographic gap in history. Currently, white males are 86% of House Republicans and 41% of House Democrats.

There were two districts, MT-AL and WA-05, where the total number of votes cast was greater than in the 2016 presidential election. (We hope Lisa Brown runs again in 2020.)

After this year’s election, there will be 31 Democrats representing districts won by Donald Trump in 2016 (not including NC-09, where a new election may be held), compared to just three Republicans representing districts won by Hillary Clinton: Reps. John Katko (NY-24), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01) and Will Hurd (TX-23). Before the election, there were 25 Republicans representing districts won by Clinton and 13 Democrats representing districts won by Trump.

The Democrat who overperformed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance by the most was Richard Ojeda, who took 44% of the vote compared to Clinton’s 23 percent in WV-03. Ojeda still lost by 13%. The Republican who overperformed Donald Trump’s 2016 performance by the most was Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25), who won reelection by 21 points in a district Trump won by just two points.

Blue Dog Ben McAdams (UT-04) will be the Democrat who represents the most Republican-leaning district (PVI: R+13). (Joe Cunningham (SC-01) and Kendra Horn (OK-05), each in R+10 districts are celebrating similar victories, although, unlike McAdams, neither Cunningham nor Horn got any support from the DCCC.)

Rep. John Katko (NY-24) is the Republican that represents the most Democrat-leaning district (PVI: D+3). He's also the sole Republican in a Democratic-leaning district (according to Cook PVI).

The closest race was in GA-07 where Republican Rep. Rob Woodall defeated Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux by 433 votes.

According to OpenSecrets.org, the most expensive House race of 2018 (excluding special elections) was CA-39, where candidates and outside groups spent a total of $36.8 million, including $12 million spent by the eventual Democratic victor, mega-millions jackpot winner Gil Cisneros. The next most expensive races were CA-48 ($34.9 million), WA-08 ($33.7 million), NY-19 ($32 million) and PA-01 ($30.9 million). Self-funders:

• CA-39-

• Gil Cisneros- $9,252,762
• Andy Thorburn- $2,832,018
• Mai-Khanh Tran- $732,074

• CA-48-

• Harley Rouda- $1,084,524
• Hans Keirstead- $1,080,400

According to OpenSecrets.org, the top-spending House candidate of the cycle was self-funding Democrat David Trone, who spent $18 million en route to winning MD-06 after spending $13 million on a failed bid in an adjacent district last cycle.

At the start of 2018, Republicans held 33 of the 50 governorships, compared to 16 for Democrats and one independent in Alaska. Once the votes were counted on Election Night (and in the days after), Democrats had a net gain of six seats, leaving them with 23 seats to 27 for Republicans. The GOP picked up the independent-held seat in Alaska. Democrats did not lose a single gubernatorial seat. Republicans suffered losses almost entirely in blue (Illinois, Maine, New Mexico) and purple (Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin) states. The GOP lost one red state: Kansas.

There was no presidential race in 2018, of course... so here are the early projections for the 2020 race. Sit back, light up a doobie or pour yourself a scotch on the rocks and enjoy every delicious minute of it:

Long Past Time To Retire Brenda Snipes AND Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Florida is in the news— and at least it isn’t a hurricane. I think the first time we rang an alarm bell about Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s crooked crony, Broward County elections chief Brenda Snipes, we were picking up on a Politico report by Marc Caputo. In the 2016 cycle, she worked to steal the election for DWS, as sure as DWS worked to steal the presidential primary for Hillary. Snipes broke the law by destroying ballots cast in the tight primary election between Wasserman Schultz and Tim Canova after Canova sued to get access to the ballots. Canova, according to Caputo "wanted to inspect the optical-scan ballots cast in his Aug. 30 primary race against Wasserman Schultz because he had concerns about the integrity of the elections office. Under longstanding federal law, ballots cast in a congressional race aren’t supposed to be destroyed until 22 months after the election. And under state law, a public record sought in a court case is not supposed to be destroyed without a judge’s order. Snipes’ office, however, destroyed the paper ballots in question in October-- in the middle of Canova’s lawsuit-- but says it’s lawful because the office made high-quality electronic copies. Canova’s legal team found out after the fact last month.”

She wasn’t fired and was never held accountable so… of course, she took that as a green light to just keep fucking up. People are more concerned that she’s made it impossible to ever know who really won the gubernatorial and senate races in Florida than they are about how she stole another race from Tim Canova on behalf of DWS. Below is an email Canova sent his followers in Broward and Miami-Dade yesterday:

Since Election Day, the eyes of the nation have been on Broward County. While all other counties in Florida completed their counting of ballots, Broward continued finding new ballots to be counted, nearly swinging the election results for U.S. Senate and Florida Governor from Republicans to Democrats. Now there’s a state-wide machine recount, and the likelihood of lawsuits and possible hand recounts.

It’s been more than a year since we discovered that Brenda Snipes, the Broward Supervisor of Elections, illegally destroyed all the ballots cast in our 2016 primary against Debbie Wasserman Schultz. The news media refused to cover the story. If not for this double-trainwreck that landed in Broward, with both Governor and Senate races hanging in the balance, the media blackout would have continued. Instead, because of her role in the middle of the contested races for Governor and Senator, the mainstream media is finally asking questions about Snipes.

I warned for months that the failure to remove Snipes and her cronies from office would undermine public trust and result in continuing election irregularities, frauds, and illegal conduct. Since Election Day, I have heard from countless Broward residents from across the political spectrum expressing the same view, that they have lost faith and confidence in Broward election results, from non-partisan city commission and judicial elections to primaries and Congressional elections. Many ran for office as outsiders fighting for clean government, and now are horrified to see the level of corruption in our elections.

Two years ago, I first sought to inspect the ballots cast in our 2016 primary in an effort to verify the vote. Instead, we discovered that Snipes and one of her directors, Dozel Spencer, conspired to obstruct justice and tamper with evidence. This is not a theory, but an actual conspiracy that was established by a mountain of evidence discovered in our public records lawsuit against Snipes. In sworn videotaped depositions, Snipes and Spencer admitted to the ballot destruction. The Florida Circuit Court then granted us summary judgment in a 10-page order finding that Snipes obstructed justice, lied to the court, illegally tampered with evidence, and violated numerous state and federal criminal statutes, some punishable as felonies.

I reached out to Florida Governor Rick Scott months ago, as well as Democratic and Republican party officials, state and federal law enforcement agencies, and every member of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. None responded, no one saw fit to investigate, and Republican Rick Scott failed to remove Snipes from office, an abdication of his responsibility as Governor to uphold the rule of law and protect us from official corruption.

The journalist Chris Hedges has said that the corruption today is so bad that they don’t even try to hide it. Barely a week before the recent election, Snipes campaigned openly with Wasserman Schultz. And why not, she had already destroyed ballots with impunity. I warned for months that if her crimes went unpunished, Snipes would have every incentive to engage in future illegal conduct and rig another election against us. The burden should not be on campaigns like ours to prove fraud when someone with Snipes’ record is left in charge of elections.

Snipes and her top staff should have been prosecuted months ago. Allowing someone with her record of lawlessness to continue supervising the recent primary and general election taints all those results by creating “incurable uncertainties” about the election outcomes. That’s why a growing number of Broward residents and former candidates are now arguing that recent election results from the primary and general elections should be invalidated, and that the courts should order new elections with appropriate safeguards— namely, hand-marked paper ballots that are counted by hand in public.

Our campaign has also uncovered other disturbing irregularities in the recent election. One campaign volunteer smelled a rat on Election night, and took video on her smart phone of a line of private vehicles driving up and transferring the blue satchels containing paper ballots to a rented truck. The ballots should have been in the possession of two people at all times. They were not. In addition, the ballots should have been transferred only to a sheriff’s deputy who should have signed a receipt for the ballots. None of this happened, which destroys the “chain-of-custody” of the ballots and casts doubt on any potential paper ballot recount.

Like many other candidates who have lost under highly suspicious circumstances, we are still assessing our options moving forward. One thing is certain, whatever happens to our campaign, we will continue calling for Snipes and her staff to be removed from office and prosecuted for their crimes. The criminal justice system must be used to clean up the swamp in the Broward elections office.

I’m going to guess that U.S. District Judge Mark Walker would tend to agree with Tim. NPR reported that Walker slammed Florida yesterday for repeatedly failing to anticipate election problems, and said the state law on recounts appears to violate the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that decided the presidency in 2000. “We have been the laughing stock of the world, election after election, and we chose not to fix this.” Key word there is "chose."

Some Good News The Morning After

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez beat Joe Crowley again last night

The NY Times defines what happened as a wave. It didn't feel like a wave to me last night-- not with Beto, @IronStache, Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams losing-- not to mention all those Senate races. But the Democrats did take back the House-- pretty substantially, and appear to have defeated Putin's favorite congressman, Dana Rohrabacher. The Senate is very bad news. Although Jacky Rosen beat Dean Heller in Nevada, Kyrsten Sinema appears to have lost to Martha McSally in Arizona. Marsha Blackburn defeated Phil Bredesen in Tennessee and, tragically, Beto O'Rourke lost to Ted Cruz in Texas. Democrats also lost Senate seats in Missouri (Claire McCaskill), Florida (Bill Nelson) and Indiana (Joe Donnelly) and Jon Tester may have lost in Montana; still too close to call-- with 83.4% of precincts counted, Matt Rosedale is leading narrowly-- 48.9% to 48.2%. Sorry... this was meant to be a good news post.

So far, though, Democrats have managed to flip several state legislatures-- both Houses in New Hampshire as well as the state senates in New York, Connecticut (which had been tied), Colorado, Maine and Minnesota. So, preliminary numbers show that of the 900 state legislative seats, the Democrats lost during the Obama years, about a third of them were won back last night. Unlike the DSCC and the DCCC, both of which failed again, the DLCC did very well and deserve to be congratulated.

Voters in Idaho, Nebraska and Utah voted Republican for virtually all the offices they could-- with the likely exception of Utah's 4th district where Blue Dog Ben McAdams leads Republican incumbent Mia Love 93,994 (51.3%) to 89,280 (48.7%) this morning with 68.4% of the vote counted. BUT voters in all 3 states approved propositions to expand Medicaid (under ObamaCare) that there legislatures had refused to do. That brings the total to 36 states who have opted to bring low-cost, quality healthcare to individuals who can't afford expensive healthcare.

USA Today reported this morning that "Florida voted overwhelmingly Tuesday to restore voting rights to an estimated 1.5 million former felons, including roughly 500,000 African-Americans" and that Michigan Utah and Missouri legalized marijuana.

Democrats, though losing crucial governors races in Florida and Ohio, as well as in Iowa, took 7 gubernatorial mansions away from the Republicans: Kansas (Kobach gone), Wisconsin (Scott Walker gone), Nevada, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico and Maine.

Now, What Actually DID Happen In Florida?

Donna! Donna! Donna!

Democratic performance was up... but not by enough. There was a little good news. In Miami-Dade, two red seats flipped blue, although both are fairly strong blue districts. FL-27, where Ileana Ros Lehtinen retired, has a PVI of D+5. Hillary beat Trump there by TWENTY points-- 58.5% to 38.9%, so you wouldn't think it would take a wave. A very weak Democrat, Donna Shalala, beat a fairy strong Republican, Maria Salazar 127,144 (51.7%) to 112,638 (45.8%). Next door, Carlos Curbelo tried distancing himself from Trump and fought a tough battle against Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell but the district is too blue (D+6) for a Republican in a year like this with such a xenophobic, anti-Hispanic "president." Hillary beat Trump there 56.8% to 40.5%. Mucarsel-Powell beat Curbelo 116,626 (50.7%) to 113,326 (49.3%). As of the Oct 17 FEC reporting deadline Shalala had outraged Salazar $3,402,023 to $1,542,470. The DCCC kicked in $1,031,865 and Pelosi's PAC put in another $636,302. The NRCC put in $1,493,272 and Ryan's PAC threw in $273,123. All in all each candidate had about $2 million in negative ads thrown against them.

FL-26 was more fiercely contested. Curbelo raised $4,751,998 to Mucarsel-Powell's $3,746,206. The DCCC spent $4,566,411 and Pelosi's PAC put in another $2,608,655. The NRCC spent $2,725,738 and Ryan spent $2,893,997.

The other Florida races where the DCCC had hoped to make headway were all flops, primarily because they had weak candidates... and a weak wave. In the 6th district (DeSantis' seat) Michael Waltz took every county and beat Nancy Soderberg (New Dem) 187,322 (56.3%) to 145,137 (43.7%). PVI is R+7 and Hillary had lost to Trump 56.9% to 39.9%. Soderberg outraised Waltz $2,826,532 to $1,702,312. The DCCC didn't spend in this one but Pelosi put in $499,932 and Bloomberg's PAC put in $1,623,370. Neither the NRCC nor Ryan's PAC spent but a right-wing billionaires PAC, (American Patriots) put in $1,102,500.

One of the only decent candidates the DCCC had in Florida, Kristen Carlson, went up against Ross Spano for Dennis Ross' seat (FL-15) in the Tampa suburbs and exurbs. The PVI is R+6 so even with Carlson outperforming she still lost 149,555 (53.1%) to 131,876 (46.9%). She had outraised Spano, $1,297,512 to $581,690. But while the DCCC spent just $694,360, Ryan's PAC put in $1,744,302 (on top of Club for Growth's $637,403).

In FL-16 Vern Buchanan held onto his seat 195,693 (54.6%) to 162,633 (45.4%) against David Shapiro. Brian Mast beat back a challenge from DCCC recruit Lauren Baer 183,376 (54.4%) to 153,543 (45.6%). Buchanan's district is R+7 and Mast's is R+5. And, a seat the DCCC thought they'd have a chance in, FL-25, was retained by Mario Diaz-Balart against another decent Democratic candidate Mary Barzee Flores, 126,713 (60.6%) to 82,220 (39.4%).

The dual catastrophe of the night was in the two big statewide races, where Rick Scott edged Bill Nelson 4,035,815 (50.4%) to 3,977,352 (49.6%) and, even more shockingly, Ron DeSantis beat Andrew Gillum for the governor's mansion, 4,013,976 (49.9%) to 3,934,962 (48.9%).

Nationally, the wave sure wasn't a tsunami, but the Democrats did win the House and a lot of gubernatorial seats and we'll get into the rest of that mañana and the day after mañana. I have to chill. We're going to suspend the DWT schedule for a week or two and just post now and then instead of by set times. Bare with us, ok?

What's Happening With Florida Today? Plus-- A Note From Matt Haggman

Politico: "The general consensus among Republicans is that they will lose the House, and end up in at least a five-seat minority-- that would correspond to a 28-seat loss. Senior Republicans tell us that even in a worst-case scenario, they do not expect to lose 40 seats. A prescient prediction or famous last words?"

Of all the senior Republican lawmakers they spoke with over the weekend, "only one made the case that the GOP will keep the House." If it's who I think it was, he was staggering drunk for the entire weekend. Many Republicans expected the House races to tighten up by election day. Instead the generic ballot polls have gotten even worse for them. The last one for CNN by SSRS shows an absolutely massive 55% to 42% preference for Democrats among likely voters. As I've said before, the pollsters' likely vote modeling is wrong because it is not taking increased Latino and millennial voting into account. Polls predicting less than 30 flipped seats will all be off by as much as 100% tonight.

Let's look at Florida. Yesterday's Marist poll shows Andrew Gillum leading Ron DeSantis in the gubernatorial race-- 50% to 46%-- and Bill Nelson leading Scott in the Senate race by the same 50% to 46%. Democrats are very lucky to have Gillum at the head of the ticket instead of dull conservative Gwen Graham, who had been the establishment candidate and who would have dragged the party down the toilet with her. But it's a shame Florida doesn't have any good congressional candidates who could ride the wave and Andrew's coattails into office. Instead, it's a bunch of DCCC-recruited backs from the Republican wing of the party-- New Dems and Blue Dogs. This is the key today: "Democrats in both races are performing better than their Republican counterparts with likely voters who are independents, minorities and women."

Stoking domestic terrorism goes over especially badly with independent voters

Results from Quinnipiac are nearly identical: seven point leads for both Gillum and Nelson, entirely because of double-digit leads for both among women, minorities and independent voters. Writing Sunday for the Miami Herald Steve Bousquet reported on the surge in early voting for Democrats. On Sunday, "Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Hillsborough and Orange, the five biggest 'blue' counties, all reported their highest one-day early voting totals of the 2018 campaign. As a result, on a day when President Donald Trump rallied thousands of Republicans in Pensacola, the GOP’s ballot advantage over the Democrats shrank to six-tenths of 1 percentage point (0.6), with GOP ballots at 40.8 percent of the statewide total and Democrats at 40.2 percent." By Monday morning Dems had a +0.5% lead over Republicans in ballots cast. In 2014 Republicans held almost a 6% lead over Dems going into election day.

So how many Democratic candidates will Gillum's coattails and the anti-red wave drag to victory in Florida today? Most of the candidates are so terrible that it's hard to say-- but even the worst of them are less horrible than the Republicans they're opposing. Donna Shalala, as bad a candidate as you'll find anywhere, will probably beat Maria Salazar in bright blue FL-27 (PVI- D+5) despite herself. Nate Silver gives her a 6 in 7 chance to win (84.7%). Next door in Carlos Curbelo's district (FL-26-- where the DCCC and Pelosi's PAC have spent $7,175,066 attacking Curbelo-- another weak Democrat, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell looks like she'll take the seat (PVI is D+6). Silver gives her a 5 in 9 chance (55.6%). The other Republican-held Miami-Dade seat, Mario Diaz-Balart's 25th district (PVI- R+4) has the best of the 3 Democratic challengers, Mary Barzee Flores, but in the toughest race. Silver gives her a 2 in 7 chance (27.8%) to beat Diaz-Balart. The wave will have had to have turned into a tsunami tonight for her to win.

Silver gives Wasserman Schultz a 99.9% chance of retaining her seat in a 3-way contest against progressive Tim Canova and some Republican sacrificial lamb, more or less the same chance Joe Crowley had in beating Congresswoman-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The only polling in the district-- by a GOP firm-- shows Wasserman Schultz exactly tied with Canova.

The DCCC has 4 other Democratic candidates on their Red to Blue page-- Nancy Soderberg (FL-06, Ron DiSantis' open seat with an R+7 PVI), Kristen Carlsen (FL-15, Dennis Ross' open seat stretching from the Tampa suburbs to the Orlando area with an R+6 PVI), David Shapiro (FL-16, Vern Buchanan's Sarasota, Bradenton seat with an R+7 PVI) and Lauren Baer (FL-18, Brian Mast's Treasure Coast district with an R+5 PVI). Silver doesn't give any of them much of a chance to win. Soderberg 1 in 4, Carlsen 3 in 7, Shapiro 1 in 7, and Baer 1 in 12. Soderberg, Baer and Shapiro (as well as Mucarsel-Powell) are all New Dems. The 2 Florida candidates in red districts with the best shot are 2 normal Dems, Kristen Carlsen and Mary Barzee Flores. The DCCC has spent modestly in a few of the races-- $499,932 in FL-06, $146,362 in FL-16, $868,290 in FL-18, and $694,360 in FL-15
.




Matt Haggman is one of the progressive Democrats Blue America endorsed this cycle but who didn't win his primary, losing out, in this case, to an establishment nothing with lots of name recognition and money but with nothing to offer the voters except that she's not a Trumpist. Tragic waste of a blue seat but Matt has been good sport about it, endorsed her and has been working to help elect her. He agreed to catch us up on what he's been up to down in South Florida. He reiterated that "This is the most important mid-term election in our lifetimes. It’s a moment when we will decide as a country who we are and who we are not. Here in Florida I have been working to help Andrew Gillum, Donna Shalala, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Mary Barzee Flores and Bill Nelson all win. Just this weekend I was out canvassing. But, before this, I was a candidate. I was one of the many across the country who left good jobs to up and run for Congress following the 2016 presidential election. For me, it didn’t go as hoped. I lost to Donna Shalala in Florida’s Congressional District 27. Howie asked that I share a blog post I wrote in the weeks after the Aug. 28 Florida primary. It’s a reminder of the reasons why this mid-term is so important. Why each of us can have a big impact even if we’re not on the ballot. And why, whether a candidate or supporter, we must do all we can to ensure everyone gets out to vote this Election Day to turn a new page in our politics."

Until Next Time, Thank you

It’s been a few weeks since the primary election. Obviously, for me, it was a disappointment. But the many great wishes since election night from friends and supporters has been wonderful. I wanted to write a post and say thank you. And also reflect a bit on the past 13 months campaigning for US Congress.

Before doing that, I again congratulate Donna Shalala on her victory. This is a moment in our politics that is bigger than any individual and it’s critical that the Democratic party take control of the U.S. House of Representatives. We must unite behind her. In addition, we have to elect Andrew Gillum as our next Governor! His campaign has energized us all, and it’s time to bring it home.

Looking back on the primary, my overriding feeling is gratitude. I’m extremely thankful to my wife Danet, who supported me in this effort, and thankful to all of the people who propelled our campaign--  the volunteers, fellows, staff, donors and, ultimately, voters. I had never run for any elected office, yet so many went all-in supporting our campaign. Thank you very, very much.

Our fellows were, in particular, an inspiration to me. We recruited more than 50. Most were in college, some still in high school. Working on the campaign after class or full-time during summer break. Weekends, nights. Calling voters, knocking on doors. They were passionate and dedicated. Now, they are back on campus. At schools from Miami Dade College and Michigan to Boston University and Palmetto Senior High School. At a time when our political system badly needs a reset, they showed what it means to take hold of our democracy. With them, our future is so blazingly bright.

Along with our fellows, what I loved about being a candidate was talking with voters and being out in the community. I loved it. Going door to door on sweltering summer afternoons in Kendall, or Little Havana, or Richmond Heights. Evenings canvassing in Westchester or Palmetto Bay. Unfiltered and alone, it was just us; talking about our community and country. On those days and nights there was no place I would rather be.

Life revealed itself in its many forms on these unannounced visits. The couple celebrating their daughter who was headed to college. The single mom working three jobs to keep current on her mortgage. The middle-aged woman who tried to chat amiably but, after a time, couldn’t hold it back any longer, sharing that she’d just been diagnosed with cancer. “I need a hug,” she said, a tear running down her cheek, which she quickly and defiantly wiped away.

The conversations were always so real--  standing at front doors, sitting in living rooms, meeting people where they are, learning about their hopes and concerns, aspirations and struggles. At a time when Washington has so fundamentally and collectively lost its way, at the grassroots people are making sense. We need to spend more time listening to them.

Indeed, throughout the campaign I often said the best ideas come from the community, not candidates. I really meant it. Change happens from the ground up, and that’s never been more true than today. From start to finish, our campaign sought to stay true to that ethos. Namely, we focused on voters, rather than cutting down competitors as a means to win.

We visited every precinct, we knocked on some 45,000 doors. Again and again, I found a sincerity, thoughtfulness and a belief that things will get better. I always thought we lived in a special community, but over the last year I’ve vividly seen it with my own eyes in one neighborhood after another. Those thousands of conversations leave me today more hopeful and optimistic than ever.

If only our politics can be as good as them. I think it can, but we are going to have to change in big ways.

To me, election night 2016 was a shattering moment--  and it’s what ultimately prompted me to run. I had believed that America would never elect a person who said and did the things that Donald Trump said and did. I believed that America today would never elect a bully, a liar, someone who preyed upon our worst fears and sought to divide us to win support. We might come close to electing such a demagogue, but at this stage in our country’s history we would never actually do it. I was obviously wrong.

The better angels of our nature had given way to our most base sensibilities. A presidency built on hope was followed by one grounded in our worst fears.

In early January, as President Obama prepared to leave office, he gave his farewell address, warning that we can’t take democracy for granted. That it “falls on each of us to be anxious, jealous guardians of our democracy.” What the speech said to me is that, yes, America is a special place. But it’s only special because generation after generation has continually engaged in making it so--  even as there are setbacks, sometimes dramatic setbacks, along the way.

Then, at Danet’s urging, on January 21st we attended the Women’s March in Washington, D.C. My sister Meghan and our friend Lissette went too. It was an extraordinary day as millions around the world rose up. It was there that I thought to myself that this remarkable moment of protest must also be a moment of real and lasting change--  and wondered how to try and live that. It was there that I decided to run.

The reason I decided to drop everything, leave my job at Knight Foundation and do something I’d never done before was because I believed we were--  and are--  at a pivotal moment. This is not a normal election year.

I firmly believe that years from now people will ask about this time, what did we do?

What did we do when a President--  along with a compliant Republican-controlled Congress--  called for border walls, Muslim bans, tore thousands of immigrant children from their parents, bowed to a foreign power that meddled in our election, sympathized with neo-Nazis, sought to use law enforcement as a means to settle political scores, and declared the press an enemy of the state.

This election is our moment to reaffirm and declare who we are-- and who we are not--  as a country.

But, in doing so, we have to realize that this election is about what’s next. It can’t just be about what we’re against, but it has to be about what we’re for. Indeed, while Donald Trump has contributed much to our dysfunctional politics, the truth is that he’s the result of a dysfunctional system that has been spiraling for some time.

We are only going to achieve the change we need if we dispense with the incrementalism that has defined our politics for so long and think--  and do--  in dramatic new ways. And allow new leaders to emerge in a political system that’s long become stuck.

Put another way, it’s a two-part challenge: ensure that today does not become the new normal, and provide a vision for what tomorrow will look like. With that in mind, we sought to run a campaign that actually represented the change we seek.

At a time when money is undermining our democracy, we didn’t accept any funding from political action committees, federal lobbyists or special interests like big sugar.

At a time when so many have given up on politics, our campaign was powered by extraordinary campaign fellows who were the heart and soul of our effort.

At a time when so many are disconnected from our government, we built a field program that sought to personally engage voters in every neighborhood in every part of the district.

At a time when the leadership in Congress hasn’t changed in years, we called for an entirely new slate of people in leadership roles in the House. The new faces in the next Congress must not be just newly elected members, but the leaders at the top too.

Of course, our efforts did not result in a victory. But I have no regrets. After all, this is a moment to take chances. And throughout my life I’ve always sought to take chances by diving into entirely new things; and going all-in when I do.

Whether it was going to New Orleans to write a biography on Professor Longhair (still unfinished). Or moving to Miami-- where I didn’t know a soul (but met my soulmate)--  to become a journalist (where I had a great run that lasted nearly a decade). Or leaving the Miami Herald to join Knight Foundation (where I had an even better run), in which I launched an entirely new program that planted the seeds and propelled Miami’s rapidly emerging startup and entrepreneurial community.

I want to stretch myself, test boundaries and be willing to do entirely new things. Incumbent to that approach will be wins and losses. It’s the in-between that I want to avoid.

Make no mistake, I dearly wish I was part of the Blue Wave at this critical point in our country’s history. But I’m not. This moment belongs to candidates with names like Gillum, O’Rourke, Pressley, Lamb, Ocasio-Cortez, and so many others. I will be cheering every one of them on, and support in any way I can. We need them to win and be good leaders when a new Congress is sworn in in January.

And, each in our own way, we all need to lean in and help. The moment is too important. The challenges are too great. The stakes too high. No one can sit this out.

So what’s next? The short answer is, I don’t know.

I do know that I have many people to thank. I remember when I decided to run, a friend advised that people look at you differently when you’re a political candidate. He cautioned that you’ll be disappointed by friends you thought would be there. But he also said you’ll be surprised by the support from those you didn’t know before or never expected. Focus and delight in the latter, he said. And I will.

(One quick note: Danet and I took some time away after the election. If you haven’t heard from me yet, you’ll be hearing from me soon.)

After such an all-consuming period I also have many friendships to renew, which I am looking forward to doing.

Life is about chapters and seasons. The thing about political campaigns is the chapter ends so suddenly. After such an intense period, it’s quickly and suddenly over. It’s a crash landing. But a new chapter begins. There is power in blank canvases. I’ve experienced it before. It’s at moments like these when you can edit your life and think completely anew. It’s often at these moments when the unimagined happens, when you follow completely new paths and find unexpected success.

I have no idea what this next chapter will bring, but I’m excited to find out.

After the race, I spoke with Reggie, who is a great friend and the father of Joshua, my little through Big Brother Big Sister for more than a decade. Reggie said to me: “You gotta keep pressing on my man. It’s all good.”

That pretty much says it all. Keep pressing on.

The Trump Referendum

National Journal's Josh Kraushaar started the year very reticent about predicting a blue-- or, more accurately, an anti-red-- wave. Yesterday he was writing more realistically about GOP gloom and doom, albeit still defending his own lack of vision by referring to "rank-and-file members who looked in solid shape several months ago." The battle lines have moved deep-- really deep-- into the GOP heartland, with Ryan's slimy SuperPAC unleashing millions of dollars to defend floundering Republican incumbents Fred Upton (MI), Mia Love (UT), Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA), Karen Handel (GA), Brian Mast (FL) and George Holding (NC), as well as more red open seats like the ones seeing Dennis Ross (FL) and Tom Garrett (VA) retire. "The flurry of cash in GOP-friendly areas," wrote Kraushaar, "also underscores how big the map of targets has grown, forcing any Republican running in a remotely-competitive district to worry about their political future. Privately, Republican leaders expect to lose around 30 seats-- and the House majority-- but acknowledge that there could be a number of unexpected outcomes pushing those numbers higher on Election Night. That’s an all-too-realistic scenario given the supercharged liberal engagement in districts across the country, lackluster re-election efforts from unprepared GOP members of Congress, and impressive fundraising figures from even long-shot Democratic challengers."

Outside GOP groups particularly Ryan's SuperPAC but plenty of other dark money groups funded by a small handful of billionaires, have been effective in undermining some of the leading Democratic challengers in conservative districts. The flood of smears against some of the best Democrats running, like Randy Bryce and Kara Eastman, have taken a toll, as voted have been left confused and unsure about what to believe and where they heard what. While conservative Democrats under attack by this outside sewer money have been defended by the DCCC, most progressives have not been. So far Ryan and allied PACs have spent $1,280,743 smearing Kara and $2,446,043 smearing Randy Bryce, the DCCC and Pelosi's PAC have spent a total of ZERO on defending either of them. Nor have they put a cent into defending Ammar Campa-Najjar against the vicious racist attacks the GOP has rained down on him. There's a torrent of DCCC and Pelosi cash for Blue Dogs and New Dems-- but nothing at all for progressives like Mike Siegel in Texas, J.D. Scholten in Iowa, Jess King in Pennsylvania or James Thompson in Kansas. You know what that Blue America thermometer above is for-- righting that wrong so that these candidates can execute their get out the vote strategies.

You know what we're going to hear a lot of for the next week? The elections are a referendum on Trump. You're been hearing it here at DWT all year. And it's true. To a pretty big extent, the midterns are always a referendum on the president and his party. But this year, more than ever. How will we know that hypothesis is true? It's true if you see between 50 and 60 seats flip a week from Tuesday. Have you ever heard of a president-- even a make-believe, illegitimate president like the asshole Putin installed-- spending all this time-- at our expense no less-- campaigning with his cookie-cutter/one-size-fits-all bullshit and nonsense?

David Remnick's new column for the New Yorker, The Midterm Elections Are A Referendum On Donald Trump, is dated the day before the voting, but it's out now. "What," he asks, "is there left to know about Donald Trump? Robert Mueller, various state officials, and a legion of reporters around the country are dedicated to penetrating any stubborn mysteries that still linger, yet who can argue that there is insufficient evidence to make a rational judgment about the character of the man, the nature of his Presidency, and the climate he has done so much to create and befoul?"

The #MAGAbomber case will be investigated more months to come "but what’s already clear is that it occurred at a moment of tragic division and conspiracy-mongering generated, foremost and daily, by the President of the United States. The right has no monopoly on insult and incivility-- the online universe can be a sewer of spite-- but there is no real equivalence: no modern President has adopted and weaponized such malevolent rhetoric as a lingua franca. Trump is a masterful demagogue of the entertainment age. His instruments are resentment, sarcasm, unbounded insult, casual mendacity, and the swaggering assertion of dominance. From his desk in the Oval Office, on Twitter, and at political rallies across the country, he spews poison into the atmosphere. Trump is an agent of climate change, an unceasing generator of toxic gas that raises the national temperature."

When the leaders of the Republican Party first acquainted themselves with Trump’s rhetoric and character a few years ago, many of them were appalled. Ted Cruz, after hearing Trump insult his wife’s appearance and insinuate that his father bore some responsibility for the assassination of John F. Kennedy, called his rival a “pathological liar,” a “snivelling coward.” But, after Cruz became one more casualty of the 2016 Republican primaries, and reckoned that he could not hold his Senate seat while attacking Trump, he, like almost every other light of the “party of Lincoln,” capitulated. The G.O.P. is now Ted Cruz writ large, a political party that has debased itself in the image of its standard-bearer.

The midterm elections are being held in an atmosphere of immense national stress. It could only be so when the singular actor in the drama is Donald Trump, who thrives on the idea that American life is a daily cliffhanger, in which the hero bravely sets out to deepen the divide between his supporters and everyone else, to dismantle international agreements and alliances, and to protect corporate interests over the interests of working people and the natural world. There are, unquestionably, countless local and regional issues being debated, but, above all, this election is a referendum on Trump, a contest between his base and those who feel that it is in the national interest to establish at least some brake-- a new majority in the House of Representatives, a new crop of governors and state legislators-- to slow his disintegration of American life and his despoilment of the national spirit. Two years ago, the prospect of a Trump Presidency represented an emergency. Tens of millions of voters found a reason to stay home. This year, the polls are tight. The stakes cannot be overstated.

YouGov's polling from Friday showed an average disapproval of 10 points for Trump. Marist, my favorite pollster-- also from Friday-- showed Trump down an average of 13 points. Their generic ballot shows Democrats up by 10. The Big Sky poll from the university of Montana, doesn't just show Tester being reelected to his Senate seat 48.9%to 38.8%, it shows a race that was barely on anyone's radar outside of Montana, the House race pitting violent GOP incumbent Greg Gianforte against a not well-known Democrat, Kathleen Williams, beating him 45.8% to 45.3%. He spent $8,632,559 ($2,500,000 from his personal bank account) to her $2,852,527. Friday polls showed Bill Schuette floundering hopelessly in the Michigan gubernatorial race; Congressman Stevan Pearce without a hope to be New Mexico's next governor and Laura Kelly beating Kris Kobach in Kansas, 40-36%. Meanwhile, Democrats continue publicizing the fact that Trump has endorsed their opponents:

The Gubernatorial Races In 9 Charts-- And The Last Blue America Contest Of 2018 Ends Today At Noon (PT)

First the contest. Blue America is giving away...

• $5,000 to each of 3 progressive candidates for their GOTV efforts
• $1,000 to one candidate
• 5 beautiful, signed prints by Nancy Ohanian from her Heroes of The Revolution series: Randy Bryce, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ted Lieu, Alan Grayson.

Remember, this contest ends at noon today Pacific Time. All the rules are here, but it's pretty easy. Click on the thermometer. All of the candidates on the list won their primaries and were then either told to go pound sand by the elitist dogs at the DCCC or were just ignored by the DCCC entirely. But don't get me started... Heard that a member of Congress read by post where I referred to the DCCCers as "scumbags" the other day and then called the executive director up and called him a "scumbag" and he blew up and blamed me. Pick any 3 candidates from the list and contribute at least $1.18 to each of them. You can donate any amount-- as long as it isn't over the $2,700 limit-- but make sure you add $0.18 so we know you want it counted as a "vote." The 3 candidates with the most "votes," each gets a $5,000 check. And the candidate with the most money gets a $1,000 contribution. We will randomly pick 5 contributors by tomorrow and each one will get to pick any of the 4 signed prints as a thanks for participating gift from Blue America. Got it? Ready, set, go! Here are the 4 prints. First Ted Lieu and Randy Bryce. And after that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Alan Grayson:

OK, as promised, here are the 9 gubernatorial contests-- all of which were considered toss-ups at the beginning of the cycle. Look at them now, at least according to FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver:

A one in twenty chance to win! I bet Schuette wishes he hadn't helped try to cover up the Flint water scandal. His career is so cooked! I bet he thought he could win because Trump "somehow" managed to take the Michigan electoral votes. Maybe some other time, Bill. Though... hopefully not.

Ron DeSantis was also counting on Trump-- and that was enough to get him the Republican nomination. But that's where that ended. He's spent the entire campaign hiding from the voters and hiding from the media and every time he's been forced to pop his head out of his whole, his favorabilities have gone down and his chances to win have followed. He still appears to have a 20.5% chance though. Let's see if a rally or two in Florida with Trump can drive his chances down further. What do you think?

This is a race worth investing in if you still have any money left. Scott Walker is the ultimate Koch puppet and everyone in Wisconsin will be able to breath the air of freedom if his ugly career is short-circuited. I see a much bigger anti-red wave in Wisconsin than most people do-- and Walker has a lot to do with it, almost as much as Trump. Let's keep our fingers crossed that Wisconsin comes through for Tony Evers, Tammy Baldwin, Randy Bryce and that the state Senate flips as well.

What's wrong with someone like Greg Orman-- with less than a 1 in a 100 chance to win-- to not drop out and endorse, and vigorously campaign for, Laura Kelly? After all, at this point he is throwing the race to Kris Kobach, one of the arch-villains of American politics. Is that how Orman wants to go down in Kansas history? What an asshole!

Here's where we-- Georgia, the nation, the world-- see if grotesque and completely blatant cheating pays off. Brian Kemp should be headed towards a prison cell, not to the governor's mansion.