The Midterms: Random Fact, Figures

Monday, the Cook Report listed 50 interesting facts about last month's midterm elections. Here are the ones I found most interesting, some combined:

It was the highest turnout in a midterm election since 1914 and the first time a majority of eligible voters (50.3%) cast ballots since women gained the right to vote; Trump was mentioned in 16% of all congressional ads.

Democrats won about 9.7 million more votes for House than Republicans (8.6%)-- the largest midterm raw vote margin ever and the largest percentage margin since 1986. The 40 (net) flipped seats was the largest net gain for the party since the Watergate midterm of 1974.

After 2018, House Dems will represent 78% of all Whole Foods Market locations (up from 65% today), but just 27% of all Cracker Barrel Old Country Store locations (up from 21% today). Of the 43 districts Democrats flipped from Republican control, 69% contain a Whole Foods Market.

The average age of the top three Democratic leaders in the House (Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn) is 79 years old. The average age of the 62 incoming Democratic House freshmen is 45 years old. This is the largest freshmen vs. leadership age differential in modern history.



When the House convenes in January, 90% of House Republicans will be white men, compared to just 38% of House Democrats. This is the widest demographic gap in history. Currently, white males are 86% of House Republicans and 41% of House Democrats.

There were two districts, MT-AL and WA-05, where the total number of votes cast was greater than in the 2016 presidential election. (We hope Lisa Brown runs again in 2020.)

After this year’s election, there will be 31 Democrats representing districts won by Donald Trump in 2016 (not including NC-09, where a new election may be held), compared to just three Republicans representing districts won by Hillary Clinton: Reps. John Katko (NY-24), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01) and Will Hurd (TX-23). Before the election, there were 25 Republicans representing districts won by Clinton and 13 Democrats representing districts won by Trump.

The Democrat who overperformed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance by the most was Richard Ojeda, who took 44% of the vote compared to Clinton’s 23 percent in WV-03. Ojeda still lost by 13%. The Republican who overperformed Donald Trump’s 2016 performance by the most was Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25), who won reelection by 21 points in a district Trump won by just two points.

Blue Dog Ben McAdams (UT-04) will be the Democrat who represents the most Republican-leaning district (PVI: R+13). (Joe Cunningham (SC-01) and Kendra Horn (OK-05), each in R+10 districts are celebrating similar victories, although, unlike McAdams, neither Cunningham nor Horn got any support from the DCCC.)

Rep. John Katko (NY-24) is the Republican that represents the most Democrat-leaning district (PVI: D+3). He's also the sole Republican in a Democratic-leaning district (according to Cook PVI).

The closest race was in GA-07 where Republican Rep. Rob Woodall defeated Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux by 433 votes.

According to OpenSecrets.org, the most expensive House race of 2018 (excluding special elections) was CA-39, where candidates and outside groups spent a total of $36.8 million, including $12 million spent by the eventual Democratic victor, mega-millions jackpot winner Gil Cisneros. The next most expensive races were CA-48 ($34.9 million), WA-08 ($33.7 million), NY-19 ($32 million) and PA-01 ($30.9 million). Self-funders:

• CA-39-

• Gil Cisneros- $9,252,762
• Andy Thorburn- $2,832,018
• Mai-Khanh Tran- $732,074

• CA-48-

• Harley Rouda- $1,084,524
• Hans Keirstead- $1,080,400

According to OpenSecrets.org, the top-spending House candidate of the cycle was self-funding Democrat David Trone, who spent $18 million en route to winning MD-06 after spending $13 million on a failed bid in an adjacent district last cycle.

At the start of 2018, Republicans held 33 of the 50 governorships, compared to 16 for Democrats and one independent in Alaska. Once the votes were counted on Election Night (and in the days after), Democrats had a net gain of six seats, leaving them with 23 seats to 27 for Republicans. The GOP picked up the independent-held seat in Alaska. Democrats did not lose a single gubernatorial seat. Republicans suffered losses almost entirely in blue (Illinois, Maine, New Mexico) and purple (Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin) states. The GOP lost one red state: Kansas.

There was no presidential race in 2018, of course... so here are the early projections for the 2020 race. Sit back, light up a doobie or pour yourself a scotch on the rocks and enjoy every delicious minute of it: