Tuesday, November 06, 2018

Por Favor Vote Hoy-- PorTodo Nuestro Bien


This isn't a new poll but it could be the numbers we see on our TV screens tonight. Say a prayer. A result like that in Texas today is going to be dependent on, among other things, Latino turnout. Virtually all polling models assume Latinos will not turn out in large numbers. If that changes today, say goodbye to Ted Cruz and... HELLO BETO! Nearly 39% of Texans are Latino. BETO will win if they vote today in larger numbers than has been usual. AND, a big Latino turnout in Texas today could also help in more than a few districts with big Hispanic populations-- here's who has the most to gain:
TX-02- 29.6% Todd Litton
TX-07- 31.5% Lizzie Fletcher
TX-10- 25.9% Mike Siegel
TX-21- 27.7% Joseph Kopser
TX-23- 70.8% Gina Jones
TX-27- 50.8% Eric Holguin
TX-32- 28.3% Colin Allred

California is another state with a huge Hispanic population-- like Texas, around 39%-- where an oversized Latino turnout today could be determinative, maybe even electing a progressive senator, Kevin de León, instead of reelecting the conservative Dianne Feinstein, with a shameful anti-immigrant history unworthy of our state. In California congressional races, a big Latino turnout will make all the difference in 7 close, key races:
CA-10- 40.0% Josh Harder
CA-21- 72.1% TJ Cox
CA-22- 45.9% Andrew Janz (Devin Nunes' district)
CA-25- 37.9% Katie Hill
CA-39- 34.6% Gil Cisneros
CA-49- 25.7% Mike Levin
CA-50- 29.7% Ammar Campa-Najjar
And then there are the key Senate races in Arizona (30.1% Latino) and Nevada (27.1% Latino) which have both tightened up in the last month.

So... has Trump been enough of a determinant to rouse Latino voters up in big numbers tomorrow? All cycle, the answer has been a disappointing "NO!" But that seems to have changed in the last few weeks. Yesterday, Chris Kahn and Dan Trotta, reporting for Reuters, wrote that a new IPSOS tracking poll shows a 
marked increase in Latino enthusiasm for voting this week.

Hispanics are more interested in voting this year than in the last U.S. congressional midterm elections in 2014 and their enthusiasm outpaces that of all U.S. adults, according to a Reuters/Ipsos national tracking poll released on Sunday.

The poll also found likely Hispanic voters nearly twice as inclined to support Democrats for the House of Representatives as Republicans in Tuesday's elections.

Voter registration groups are using Republican President Donald Trump's nationalist, anti-immigrant rhetoric as an opportunity to drive up Latino enthusiasm. In an illustration of their passion, one group that is part of an alliance that has reached out to more than 1 million potential voters in Arizona took its name from the Spanish word for "fight."

...Latinos could play a crucial role in several races, from tight Senate battles in Arizona and Texas to Florida's close Senate and governor's races. In California, the flourishing Latino population has helped put in play some Republican-controlled House districts Democrats hope to flip.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll, taken Sept. 1 to Oct. 29, found that 36 percent of Hispanic voters said they were "certain" to vote, up from 27 percent in 2014. That increase is nearly double the five percentage point rise in voter enthusiasm among all Americans over the same period, the poll showed.

Enthusiasm appears especially high among Hispanic Democrats.

Forty-two percent of Hispanic Democrats said they were "certain" to vote, up from 29 percent in 2014. Among likely Hispanic voters, 60 percent said they will vote for a Democratic candidate for the House, and 32 percent would back a Republican.

Hispanics are a politically diverse group, with 55 percent of likely voters identifying as Democrats, 31 percent as Republicans and 12 percent as independent, the poll showed.

Just over half, 53 percent, of likely Hispanic voters said they were "very motivated" to pick a candidate for Congress who opposes Trump, compared with 43 percent of all likely voters, 75 percent of likely Democratic voters and 9 percent of likely Republican voters.

...America's 29 million Latinos account for nearly 13 percent of eligible voters this year, but their turnout rate has declined since 2006, according to the Pew Research Center. Only 27 percent of eligible Latinos voted in the last midterm elections in 2014, and only 16 percent of those aged 18 to 35, Pew said.

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