Special Elections-- Special Opportunities

This week, Erik Loomis' essay at Lawyers, Guns & Money, The Big Electoral Story of 2019 reminds us that "we don’t pay nearly enough attention to how power is actually built–through local and state races and organizing. So at the very least, we need to spend a ton of attention this year supporting Democrats in Virginia to take over the state legislature this fall. It’s going to be a referendum on Trump anyway and this is how we build a bigger bench in this critical state. Virginia’s progressive lieutenant governor Justin Fairfax: "We were the beginning of the blue wave that has swept the nation. It was the first sign to people post-2016 that things could be different."

Someone who very much does pay lots of attention to local races across the country is 90for90 executive director Fergie Reid, who agreed to give us a closer look at what's at stake in Virginia this year. This is his guest post:


2019-- Virginia... And Beyond
by Fergie Reid

Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax (D-VA)

Every year is an election year in the Commonwealth of Virginia. All of Virginia’s 140 General Assembly seats will be on the ballot in November 2019:

100 State House seats, and 40 State Senate seats.

In the House of Delegates, Republicans currently hold a 51 - 49 majority over Democrats; while in the State Senate, Republicans outnumber Democrats 21 - 19.

Obviously, these are razor thin margins. An added wrinkle in the State Senate: 20 - 20 vote ties are broken by the Lt. Governor, who also holds the title, “President of the Senate.” The current Lt. Governor of Virginia is a Democrat, The Honorable Justin Fairfax. If Democrats flip one seat in this year’s election, they will gain effective control of the State Senate; (a 20 - 20 tie, with the Democratic Lt. Governor’s tie breaking vote).

A two seat flip is necessary for Democrats to take the House Majority; should this occur, (it almost certainly will), the Virginia House could have the first female speaker in its ~ 400 year history; since the “House of Burgesses.” Eileen Filler-Corn, (HD 41 - Fairfax Co.), was recently elected minority leader by her caucus, and would likely be elected Speaker should Dems pick-up the necessary seats this year. Virginia is a “target-rich environment” for Dems this year; great “ROI” (return on investment) opportunities will be found within the Virginia Democratic slate of candidates this cycle, all the way down to County Board of Supervisors, School Board, Soil and Water Board, etc.

Democrats have enjoyed great results in Virginia over the past few cycles for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is, “running candidates, in as many races as possible.” Some recent Va. results:

• All 5 Statewide Electeds are Dems-- Gov. Northam, Lt. Gov. Fairfax, Att. Gen. Herring,
• U.S. Senators Warner and Kaine;
• Electoral College Votes went to the Dems in 2008, 2012, 2016;
• 2015: 1 State House seat flip, causing Republicans to lose a veto proof Majority;
• 2016: 1 CD flip (due to court ordered district boundary change), resulting in 7 R - 4 congressional ratio, (Don McEachin took the redrawn 4th CD seat);
• 2017: 15 House seat flips! Resulting in the current 51 R - 49 D split;
• 2018: 3 CD flips-- Luria defeated Taylor in CD 2, Spanberger defeated Brat in CD 7, and Wexton defeated Comstock in CD 10.

All of this is fantastic!

It’s Awesome and Phenomenal!

And it can still get a lot better.

90for90.org started in Virginia during the early 2015 cycle, honoring the 90th birthday of one of Virginia’s “favorite son” political trailblazers; a civil rights, voting rights icon who has, for several decades, graciously and humbly helped Virginia’s elected officials and grassroots activists maximize the effectiveness of their political pursuits. Some might say he’s a mensch; now and always.

The request of the 90for90.org project honoring this man, to all those who might choose to participate, is to “Register and Educate Voters-- ALL YEAR LONG.” An arbitrary goal of 90 new voters per precinct, per year, was established to honor his 90th birthday. In Virginia, with 2567 precincts, that works out to roughly 250,000 new Virginia voters per year (rounded up to set the goal higher).

Since 2015, over 1.1 million new voters have been registered in Virginia; the results are evident. Clearly, the increasingly populated voter rolls help; but, the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. is a very significant reason for recent Virginia Democratic success.

Activist groups and local committees are busting out with new members, eager to volunteer their time; many are inquiring about candidacy themselves.

Most recently, HD 86 D incumbent Jennifer Boysko won a Special Election to fill the SD 33 (Loudoun and Fairfax Co.s) seat vacated by Jennifer Wexton, who defeated Barbara Comstock to take Va.’s 10th CD seat. Don’t cry for Comstock, she’ll be welcomed on K Street. Boysko put a “beat down” on her well known, well liked Republican opponent, 70% - 30%. Most of the district is in previously Republican Loudoun County. Loudoun County is not a Republican stronghold today.

Dr. Ibrahim Samirah, a Northern Virginia Dentist, won a firehouse caucus in HD 86 (Fairfax County) over the past weekend, and will likely take this HD 86 seat in the Feb. 19 Special Election. Please stay focused on Virginia as 2019 progresses.

Florida will hold Special Elections soon, to replace Republican State House incumbents who will be taking leadership roles in the new Ron DeSantis administration.

HD 38 is entirely in Pasco Co., where the incumbent Danny Burgess will move on to head the Florida Veterans Affairs Department. Fortunately, Florida Democrats have recruited Kathy Lewis to run for this seat. Kathy Lewis is a strong voice within the Florida Disability Rights Advocacy Community; she is the mother of two daughters, one a Fulbright scholar, one a lifetime recipient of Florida’s Special Needs services.

Kathy grew up in inner city Baltimore, MD, witnessing first hand the senseless gun violence pandemic still raging in every corner of American society; she excelled in school and graduated from Johns Hopkins University. In the 2018 cycle, Kathy ran for SD 20 in Hillsborough, Pasco, and Polk Counties, against incumbent State Senator Tom Lee, one of Florida’s most powerful, experienced GOP legislators. Mr. Lee has held leadership positions in both of Florida’s legislative chambers throughout his term-limited years in office.

Accordingly, Kathy was given poor odds of success, little support, and scant attention by the know-it-alls and Grand Poobahs in the Party infrastructure, media, and “consultantocracy.”

“Nevertheless, She Persisted.”
(Good one Mitch! )

On a shoestring budget, and with a team of dedicated volunteers, Kathy overperformed, taking 46.52% of the total vote. What might she have accomplished with a tiny morsel of Statewide Party support? By the way, Kathy is African-American. In fact, one of Hillsborough County’s most successful, well known Democratic Black male elected officials, Les Miller, openly endorsed and fundraised for Kathy’s Republican opponent, Senator Tom Lee. (When asked by local media, why he was supporting Mr. Lee instead of the Democrat, Kathy Lewis, Mr. Miller replied, “I didn’t realize she was running.”)

Senator Tom Lee in turn, openly endorsed and fundraised for Congressman Ron (“..don’t monkey this up..”) DeSantis, the new Florida Governor. Many of Florida’s statewide Democratic candidates made the calculated decision to remain neutral in Kathy’s SD 20 race. Yes, the Democratic Statewide candidates chose not to endorse the SD 20 Democratic challenger running in this Democratic vote-rich Hillsborough County (Tampa area) District.

Maybe they were worried about irritating a powerful Republican Florida Senator, from whom they might need cooperation to move their bills through the committee process? They may have been reluctant to associate themselves too closely with a candidate and campaign deemed a, “sure loser” by the omniscient punditocracy?

As it turns out, all but one of the Democratic statewide Florida candidates lost in 2018; all but Nikki Fried. Nikki Fried is Florida’s new Agriculture Commissioner; a powerful job in Florida. She is also the new titular head of the Florida Democratic Party, and the front-runner in any discussion about higher Statewide elected office; Governor or U.S Senator.

As for the other Democrats who lost their races; “Karma” may not be the fastest horse out of the gate, but it sure has a knack for closing in on you down the back stretch. Senator Bill Nelson lost by ~ 10,000 votes; that’s ~ 1.5 votes per precinct. Mayor Andrew Gillum lost by ~ 30,000 votes; or, ~ 4.5 votes per precinct. The Nelson and Gillum campaigns DID endorse the favored Democratic candidates in the “winnable-- flippable” districts-- of which there were ~ 7 or 8 in the state house slate; and ~ 5 to 6 in the state senate slate.

For the most part, the statewide Democratic candidates, the State party, and the National Party, assiduously shunned, ignored, and were essentially non-existent to 59 state house Democratic challengers, 9 state senate Democratic challengers, and 9 Democrats challenging for Congressional seats.

Some quick math: That’s 
• ~ HALF of Florida’s State House Districts’ voters/geography;
• ~ a QUARTER of Florida’s State Senate Districts’ voters/geography;
• a THIRD of Florida’s Congressional Districts’ voters/geography, who were willfully ignored and dismissed because they were deemed,

“Sure Losers” and “A Waste of Time and Resources.”
“Why even try to compete in those overwhelmingly Republican districts?”
“Those races are a waste of our limited and valuable resources.”
“Why is she/he running ? She/He hasn’t raised enough money.”
“Don’t they have sense enough to know they can’t win that race?”
“It’s not a winnable district.”
“We can’t support losers; our donors will stop giving to our organization.”
“We don’t want to get the ‘Stink’ of ‘Loserism’ on us.”

It’s infuriating to listen to otherwise intelligent humans regurgitate the same old idiotic, tired, rote, dead, lame-ass talking points over and over. It’s pretty basic:

If you cede to your opponent:

HALF of the State’s geography-- represented in the ~ 59 ignored State House races, an overlapping QUARTER of the State’s geography-- represented in the 9 - 10 ignored State Senate races, and an overlapping THIRD of the State’s geography-- represented in the ignored 9 Congressional races, YOU ARE IGNORING TOO MUCH OF THE STATE, and you will lose.

Conversely, if these 77 races (59 House, 9 Senate, 9 CD) are seen as “statewide ground game opportunities”; and as an, “Advancing Front into the opponent’s Strongholds”; as an insurgent effort to limit the opponent’s ability to achieve their historically slim margin of statewide victory, (60,000 votes in 2010 and 2014, 30,000 for DeSantis v Gillum; 10,000 for Scott v Nelson), then these 77 races can truly be seen as the “Answer to the Problem”;rather than “annoying curiosities” or “‘some dude’ rookies on a quixotic mission”, they are the key to the “Florida Riddle.” Instead, in 2018 Florida, these 77 races were missed opportunities; Kathy Lewis’s SD 20 race was one of them.

“Nevertheless, She Persisted.”

And she continues to persist, in the HD 38, Pasco Co. Special Election.

Special Elections are Wild cards; anything can happen. Organized campaigns with motivated volunteers can deliver unexpected outcomes. If you feel so inclined, check out Kathy Lewis, FL HD 38, in Pasco Co.; the Special Election date will be announced very soon. Phone banking, postcarding, texting, emailing, hollering, small dollar donations are all very helpful to candidates. Do what you can, please.

FL HD 7 GOP incumbent, Halsey Beshears, has taken the job running Florida’s Department of Business and Professional Regulation. HD 7 includes Calhoun, Franklin, Gulf, Jefferson, LaFayette, Liberty, Madison, Taylor, Wakulla Counties, and a portion of Leon County.

Ryan Terrell is the Democratic candidate; Republicans have a primary. Ryan is the National Young Democrats, Southeast Regional Director, a member of the Florida Democratic Party LGBTQA Caucus, a past Legislative Aide in the State House, and a cancer survivor. This district surrounds the southern, eastern, and western outskirts of Tallahassee, stretching though Hurricane ravaged counties of the 2nd CD, down to the “Big Bend” area of the Gulf coastline. Special Elections are wild cards; anything can happen. Ryan is ready; support him if you can.

On March 12, the voters of Tennessee State Senate district 32 will elect a new Senator to replace incumbent Republican Mark Norris, who is now a Federal Judge. The Democratic candidate is Eric Coleman; Republicans have a primary. Eric Coleman is a retired U.S. Navy Senior Chief, eager to begin a new chapter of service to his neighbors in civilian leadership at the Tennessee State Capitol. TN SD 32 includes the eastern end of Shelby County, and all of Tipton County, north of Shelby.

During Eric’s active-duty Navy service he suffered a severe back injury. He continues his rehabilitation while in a wheelchair. He is a strong advocate for Women’s Rights, ERA passage, sensible gun laws, voting rights, Veteran’s issues, and Disability Rights. He is endorsed by VoteVets.org, and is organizing a tremendous GOTV effort in his Shelby and Tipton precincts. The Tennessee State Senate has 33 members; 5 of these are Democrats. Let’s help Eric make it 6 Democrats.

Please support Eric Coleman for TN SD 32-- March 12 Special Election, in any way you can.

90for90.org is a “Voter Promoter” Initiative, honoring the 90th birthday, and life of one of Virginia’s most historic living political figures; he’ll be 94 in just a few weeks. Commitment to year round voter registration and education is it’s goal; it should be a way of life for any politically aware citizen or activist group. We call it, “Good Voter Hygiene.” Please get involved in this project; visit the website, follow the FB and Twitter pages, tell your friends and family; especially if you live in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin; Arizona, Maine, Florida; Georgia, North Carolina, Kansas, Texas, Ohio, Iowa... you get it.

                                     GET BUSY. GET INVOLVED.