GOP Lame Duck Legislative Moves In Wisconsin And Michigan Will Cost Trump Both States-- And More House Seats

The outgoing Michigan congressional delegation has 9 Republicans and 5 Democrats. Starting in January it will be 7 Democrats and 7 Republicans-- and that despite gerrymandering. Starting in January every constitutional officer will be a Democrat as the state GOP enters the wilderness-- except for the shockingly gerrymandered state legislature where a 52-47% popular vote advantage for Democrats only gave them 47% of the seats. But even there Democrats managed to pick up 6 seats in the House and break the GOP supermajority in both chambers. Next cycle looks even more deadly for the Republicans, especially in terms of Congress. At least 3 more Republicans are on shaky ground for reelection. Fred Upton, for example, only drew 50.2% of the vote last month, despite outspending his opponent nearly 3 to 1 and despite the DCCC virtually ignoring the race (with a pitiful expenditure of just $241,270-- compared to, for example, the $2,033,044 they spent to replace Mike Bishop with New Dem Elissa Slotkin). This session is likely to be Upton's last in Congress.

Paul Clements, a Climate Change and Democratic Party activist who ran against Upton in 2016 told us today that "The games Republicans are playing in the Michigan legislature are so openly contemptuous of the will of the people-- and the media are paying attention-- it will only help to build Democratic momentum towards 2020. Democrats in Michigan are pumped. And many independents and people who stayed home in 2016 are ruing the day Trump became president. After the Democratic sweep of our state's highest offices, the energy is only intensifying to turf Trump and his enablers out of office in 2020."

There's been a steady drumbeat in southwest Michigan for state Rep Jon Hoadley to take on Upton next cycle. Hoadley, a member of the LGBT community, was first elected in 2014 and he represents the entire city of Kalamazoo with some of the suburbs. He's won reelection with huge majorities.

Asked about his priorities in the legislature this cycle, this is how he responded:

Invest in education for today and tomorrow: Let's invest more in our students, give teachers the freedom to teach to the individual students-- not the test, reduce class size, lower or eliminate student debt, and help us compete globally with the best trained talent and skilled labor.

Build an economy that works for everyone: Let's make sure more people are benefiting when productivity and the economy improve. It's time to stop giving away our tax dollars to the most profitable companies through tax breaks that aren't creating new jobs. Let's strengthen unions, raise the minimum wage, and help rebuild the middle class.

Champion social justice and protecting the environment: Let's prohibit discrimination in Michigan based on sexual orientation and gender identity by expanding the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act, protect a women's right to choose, end mass incarceration and reform the criminal justice system, promote a caring economy to deal with issues related to long-term care, earn paid sick and family leave time, and make our hospitals safer by improving our laws related to nursing and healthcare. Let's work together to protect our drinking water from lead, PFAS, and other contaminants, while tackling global warming.

Unrig our Democracy: Let's end gerrymandering, improve access to the ballot, end the legislator-to-lobbyist pipeline caused by term-limits, and reduce the role of money in politics.

...I am running for office because I believe in a Michigan that invest in people. I fundamentally believe that government has the power to do good in the world when good people power the government. Coming from a family of teachers, I have work to continue fighting for education for today and tomorrow, lowering class size, and reducing student debt.

As a small business owner, I know we need to do more to raise wages, make sure economic improvements reach the pockets of working people, and end giveaways to the most profitable companies. Finally, we need to protect the environment, promote social justice, and unrig our democracy. There's a lot of work to do, but together we can get it done.

This morning, Daniel Strauss, reporting for Politico wrote that Republican legislators in Wisconsin and Michigan have reignited Democratic energy since the midterms in two narrow Trump states, their power grab pouring gas on the resistance. "Republican efforts to weaken incoming Democratic governors in Michigan and Wisconsin," he asserted, "have reignited the grass-roots fervor that flipped both states in November, turning the typically sleepy post-election period into a key organizing moment ahead of the 2020 presidential election."

Liberal groups in both states are organizing demonstrations filling the capitols in both states to oppose GOP legislators stripping power from the governor’s offices before new Democratic governors take their posts. Local chapters of Indivisible, the national “resistance” group founded after President Donald Trump’s 2016 win, reactivated their members weeks after the election to protest the legislation, while MoveOn.org has texted members in key Wisconsin state Senate districts urging them to contact Republican politicians to complain. And Wisconsin Gov.-elect Tony Evers and the Wisconsin Democratic Party have raked in money with online fundraising appeals highlighting the fight over the past two weeks.

...The furor is a “great bridge for the energy from the midterm into Trump reelect,” said Tom Russell, a veteran Democratic strategist in Wisconsin. “I think it’s going to be a very good tool for Democrats to keep the energy up, keep people focused, keep people engaged.”

In Wisconsin, the controversy stems from legislation in the final days of Republican Gov. Scott Walker’s term to limit the window for early voting and weaken Gov.-elect Tony Evers, the Democrat who bested Walker in November. In Michigan, Republican lawmakers are trying to reduce the power of the governor, the attorney general and the secretary of state. The GOP had controlled the latter two for over a decade and the governorship for eight years, but Democrats won all three offices in this year’s midterms.

Democrats also won the majority of votes cast for state legislature in both states. But they will still be in the minority next year in both legislative chambers in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Republicans drew the political maps at the beginning of the decade. That means Democrats won’t have the numbers in 2019 to reverse legislation passed in the waning days of this year.

...The GOP’s legislative actions could stay in the news for a while; the National Democratic Redistricting Committee is monitoring both states and considering whether it could take legal action if Walker and Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder sign the measures into law. Protracted court battles could spur the activists for months, up to or potentially through a state Supreme Court race early next year-- the type of off-year race at which the Republican Party excelled during the Walker years.

“Progressives have to defend a Supreme Court seat in April of 2019-- this will help them do that,” said Scot Ross, the executive director of One Wisconsin Now, a liberal outside group.

Liberals will then have the chance to take the majority on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court in 2020, as Trump tries to keep the state in his column in the fall’s presidential race.

In Michigan, there’s also more than executive power at stake for the new governor. State legislative Republicans have also taken steps to undo initiatives to raise the state minimum wage and paid sick leave in the state.

Both initiatives were set to be on the ballot this November before Republican lawmakers short-circuited the process by passing the language-- before altering it during the lame-duck legislative session.

“Democrats and progressives both in and out of the party are really concerned about this and they’re really energized by it,” said Liano Sharon, a Democratic organizer in Michigan.

Democratic Gov.-elect Gretchen Whitmer has condemned the lawmakers, while promoting hopes of bipartisanship.

“This legislation needlessly divides and won’t deliver results. It won’t clean up our water. It won’t improve literacy or fix the roads. Instead of working to undermine the very leaders Michigan residents have chosen to get this job done, let's instead respect the voices of voters who have spoken clearly and decisively, and get back to building bridges.”

Whitmer’s power may be limited during her first years in office thanks to Republicans’ enduring legislative majorities. But in the meantime, activists could push to put new liberal initiatives on the ballot, including a more aggressive minimum wage hike. It could even push them toward contention to flip a state legislative chamber or more in 2020.

“I think the Democrats were energized in November, and now they’re going crazy,” said Barry Goodman, a Democratic National Committeeman from Michigan.