How Many House Republicans Will Trump Drag Down With Him In 2020?

Will voters have had enough of the circus in 2020? In a recession?

In a manner of speaking, 2020 is just around the corner. As long as the Democrats don't commit suicide by nominating another horribly flawed status quo kind of candidate like Biden, Gillibrand or Bloomberg, Pig Man should be a goner. So what about all those enablers and rubber stamps in the House? Can America be rid of them as well? Some but not as many as we would like. But... first let's look at John Harwood's supposition for CNBC that Trump may well be running in a recession his policies (and, to be fair, personality) are rapidly bringing on. And, as Harwood reminds his readers, "Trump's weak public standing leaves him no political cushion if the economy turns down. As he braces for Mueller's findings and the new Democratic-controlled House, his most recent Gallup approval rating was just 40 percent."

Harwood asserted that beyond his legal problems, he's faces "rising odds of becoming the first president to seek re-election during economic recession since Jimmy Carter... [T]he uncertainty on display in gyrating financial markets this week has darkened expectations for Trump's last two years. In the fourth quarter of 2018, forecasters already see growth slowing from the 4.2 percent and 3.5 percent recorded in the second and third quarters, respectively. For 2019 and beyond, they expect growth to slow progressively further as fiscal stimulus from lower taxes and higher spending winds down. Many predict the economy will lapse into recession in 2020."

"A strong dollar, weaker growth abroad, mounting corporate debt, a slowdown in housing and the ongoing havoc that tariffs are wreaking on global supply chains are each taking a toll," Diane Swonk, chief economist for Grant Thornton LLP, wrote this week. "No one knows for sure which straw will break the camel's back, only that they are piling up."

Swonk has accelerated her previous prediction of recession from the second half of 2020 to the first half. In October, the National Association for Business Economics reported that two-thirds of forecasters it surveyed expect recession by the end of Trump's re-election year.

That would represent a historically rare event-- and an ominous one for the president's chances of a second term.

And not just for Señor Trumpanzee. There will still be around 200 Republicans in the House, give or take a couple of prison terms. There will always be non-statistical circumstances in every election but these districts below were won by Republicans with less than 55%, making them, at least classically, vulnerable.

• Alaska- Don Young- 53.3%
• AR-02- French Hill- 52.1%
• CA-01- Doug LaMalfa- 54.9%
• CA-04- Tom McClintock-54.1%
• CA-22- Devin Nunes- 52.7%
• CA-50- Duncan Hunter- 51.8%
• CO-03- Scott Tipton- 51.7%
• FL-15- Ross Spano- 53.0%
• FL-16- Vern Buchanan- 54.6%
• FL-18- Brian Mast- 54.3%
• GA-07- Rob Woodall- 50.1%
• IL-12- Mike Bost- 51.8%
• IL-13- Rodney Davis- 50.5%
• IN-02- Jackie Walorski- 54.8%
• IA-04- Steve King- 50.4%
• KS-02- Steve Watkins- 48.1%
• KY-06- Andy Barr- 51.0%
• MI-03- Justin Amash- 54.4%
• MI-06- Fred Upton- 50.2%
• MI-07- Tim Walberg- 53.8%
• MN-01- Jim Hagedorn- 50.2%
• MN-08- Peter Stauber- 50.8%
• MO-02- Ann Wagner- 51.3%
• Montana- Greg Gianforte- 50.9%
• NE-02- Don Bacon- 51.0%
• NY-01- Lee Zeldin- 52.5%
• NY-02- Peter King- 53.3%
• NY-24- John Katko- 53.1%
• NY-27- Chris Collins- 49.4%
• NC-02- George Holding- 51.4%
• NC-09- ?
• NC-13- Ted Budd- 51.6%
• OH-01- Steve Chabot- 51.8%
• OH-12- Troy Balderson- 51.6%
• PA-01- Brian Fitzpatrick- 51.3%
• PA-10- Scott Perry- 51.4%
• PA-16- Mike Kelly- 51.5%
• TX-02- Dan Crenshaw- 52.9%
• TX-03- Van Taylor- 54.3%
• TX-06- Ron Wright- 53.1%
• TX-10- Michael McCaul- 50.9%
• TX-21- Chip Roy- 50.3%
• TX-22- Pete Olson- 51.4%
• TX-23- Will Hurd- 49.2%
• TX-24- Kenny Marchant- 50.7%
• TX-25- Roger Williams- 53.6%
• TX-31- John Carter- 50.6%
• VA-05- Denver Riggleman- 53.3%
• WA-03- Jaime Herrera Beutler- 52.9%
• WI-01- Bryan Steil- 54.6%

That's 50 obvious targets to start with-- ten more more than flipped this cycle. Blue America has already been recruiting candidates in some of those districts. We'll let you know who as soon as we get the high-five from the candidates. In many of these districts there were Blue Dogs running, (discouraging Democrats from voting). In others there were totally flawed candidates and in many the DCCC just refused too engage, often because the candidate was a progressive. Ben Ray Lujan was a terrible DCCC chairman-- weak and stupid. The new one the Democrats just picked, Blue Dog Cheri Bustos, is far worse. If we're going to have a tidal wave in 2020, it will be despite the DCCC, not because of them or even-- in all likelihood-- with their help.

This morning, The Atlantic published an essay by Wisconsin Republican Charlie Sykes, Wisconsin Republicans Are Shooting Themselves In the Foot, that warns the GOP that the kinds of anti-democracy stunts they're pulling in Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina won't help with voters but will backfire on them "The Wisconsin GOP’s lame-duck power play," he wrote, "was not the death of democracy. But it was bad enough: petty, vindictive, and self-destructive. It was, as the saying goes, worse than a crime. It was a blunder. And for what?”

In its arrogant insularity, the Wisconsin GOP became a national symbol of win-at-all-costs, norms-be-damned politics. Cut through the overwrought rhetoric and what did the Republican legislators actually accomplish? Not really a whole lot; certainly not enough to justify the political damage they’ve inflicted on themselves. They have managed to energize the progressive base, expose themselves as sore losers, and undermine crucial democratic norms. And in return … they got extraordinarily little.

...Signing the lame-duck legislation would be an especially classless way for Walker to leave office; it will tarnish his reputation in ways that I’m not sure he grasps. And, frankly, it’s just not worth it... For the moment, the Trumpist style of smash-mouth, red-versus-blue, play-to-your-base politics is ascendant. What’s happening now in Wisconsin, and similar moves in Michigan, will only escalate the cycle of hyper-partisanship. Polarization is likely to get worse before it gets better.

I started with a saying and I’ll end with another: “An eye for an eye will leave the whole world blind.” It has to stop somewhere. I’d love for it to be in Wisconsin.