Republican "Christianity" Is Entirely Pre-Jesus-- If Not Anti-Jesus-- Theirs Is A God Who Is Judgmental And Punitive

 

Keith Mannes, giving his final sermon in East Saugatuck one week ago

On Saturday evening, the Washington Post's Hannah Knowles did some Trump reporting from the front lines of one of his super-spreader events, this one in Muskegon, Michigan. He told supporters there was "something very beautiful" about "watching everybody get pushed around" in Minneapolis as National Guard troops responded violently to the peaceful protests after George Floyd’s murder. "Wasn’t that beautiful? In Minneapolis‚ they came in, these soldiers … And they had their tear gas, and they had their pepper spray, which the other side doesn’t want you to use, because it’s not nice. They can throw cans at you. They can throw rocks and stones and hurt your police, but you’re not allowed to guard yourself with tear gas, pepper spray." The forces "marched forward," said the would-be Hitler, "and the whole thing was over" as his fascist followers cheered. "There’s something about that when you’re watching everybody getting pushed around, there’s something very beautiful about it."

Muskegon is a 50-50 county on the shores of Lake Michigan. Hillary actually edged Trump there is 2016-- 36,640 (47.5%) to 35,962 (46.6%). Interestingly, Muskegon was Bernie Country that year. He didn't just beat Hillary in the Democratic primary, he beat Cruz, who won the Republican primary and had far more votes than Trump:

• Bernie- 10,062
• Hillary- 8,220
• Cruz- 6,478
• Trumpanzee- 5,757
• Kasich- 3,706
• Rubio- 1,875

In 2018, Muskegon voters turned out for Debbie Stabenow in the Senate race (52.3% to 44.8%) and for Gretchen Whitmer in the gubernatorial race (50.3% to 40.3%). In the congressional race, it was the only Democratic-performing county in MI-02. Since then, 2,790 county residents have been infected by COVID-19 and 78 have died.

Saugatuck is a small township in Allegan County 47 miles south of Muskegon. No doubt there were residents who drove the 50 minutes to see Trump Saturday. In 2016, Trump won Allegan County with 61% and two years later Stabenow and Whitmer each lost the county. It's part of MI-06, where progressive Democrat state Rep. Jon Hoadley is taking on long-time incumbent, conservative Republican Fred Upton. In 2018, Allegan was one of Upton's top bases of support-- performing for him at an R+22 level.

If you're a regular here at DWT you know I was one of the earliest supporters of what turned out to be an anti-Trump evangelical group called Vote Common Good. The pastor of the Christian Reformed Church in East Saugatuck, Keith Mannes, is part of that group as well. He's been the pastor for over 3 decades-- until last Sunday, when he gave his last sermon and walked away from his ministry in the midst of "increasing political tension and divisiveness." His parishioners are overwhelmingly MAGA supporters.

While Mannes loves the congregation he served at East Saugatuck CRC for the past four years, he says the church as a whole has “abandoned its role” as the conscience of the state in support of Trump, leading Mannes to step away.

“There’s a quote from Martin Luther King where he said, ‘The church must be reminded that it is not the master or the servant of the state, but rather the conscience of the state,’” Mannes said. “That just hit me hard because I think, broadly, the white evangelical community in our country has abandoned that role.

“The question of the church largely and how it’s functioned in this moment has been really disturbing. That’s been troubling enough that I need to lay it all down.”

A divide within the faith

Mannes is not the only Christian feeling the strain. He said he knows several other pastors who are feeling the same things.

Additionally, polls show that while white Christians still favor Trump, that support has decreased.

In a poll conducted by Pew Research Center from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, Christian support for Trump had dipped since August.

In the poll, published Oct. 13, 78 percent of white evangelical Protestants said they would vote for or lean toward voting for Trump if the election were held that day. That’s down from 83 percent in August.

White non-evangelical Protestants supported Trump 53 percent of the time in the latest poll, while white Catholics sat at 52 percent, down 6 and 7 percentage points since August, respectively.

According to Pew, 44 percent of registered voters are white Christians, making it a key voting demographic.

Why the strain on the faithful?

George Lundskow, a sociology professor at Grand Valley State University who studies the sociology of religion, said support from the religious community is tied to how people view God.

Lundskow said that while some of the president’s actions may not align with Christian values, he has aligned himself with conservative Christians by acting similar to how they see God-- judgmental and punitive.

″(His actions) don’t seem very Christian, much less conservative Christian,” Lundskow said. “I don’t think it’s about that. It’s something else about religion-- whether you see God as punitive and judgmental or the loving, forgiving version of God. That definitely shapes political views as well.”

Lundskow said this divide between conservative and progressive Christians based on their view of God is a point of division within the faith in terms of political support.

The professor explained that those who see God as punitive tend to support Trump, saying they see him as strong-willed for the way he attacks opponents and “punishes” people for being poor. Lundskow added that Christians who view God as loving and forgiving tend to be more liberal and progressive, welcoming immigrants and “seeking social justice” for the poor.

Years in the making

Mannes has been feeling a disconnect between the teachings of the church and the actions of the political candidate it largely supports for years. It started when Trump announced his campaign in June 2015 while descending down an escalator at Trump Tower.

“From the time he came down the escalator,” Mannes said of when he began to feel an internal struggle. “It’s only been building ever since. From the beginning I thought there’s something about this man and the instrument that he is for a lot of things that are just very not Jesus.”

He said the congregation at his church has “saved (his) faith in many ways,” but what he’s seen from Christians nationally has challenged it.

That includes when white supremacists gathered for a rally in Charlottesville, Va., in 2017 which led to three deaths and dozens of injuries, after which Trump said there were “very fine people on both sides.”

Mannes was part of a group of pastors that walked 130 miles from Charlottesville to Washington, D.C., in August, hearing the stories of people there during the 2017 events.

He called Trump’s photo holding a Bible in front of St. John’s Church in Washington in June, following the use of tear gas and riot control to clear protesters from the area, a “tremendous violation of something deep and holy,” and said it was a key moment in his views.

“It just floors me how church-going people who read the Bible and sing the hymns can show up at a (Trump) rally and just do that deep bellow like an angry mob supporting these horrible things that come out of his heart and his mind. It just began to trouble me so much that I am a pastor in this big enterprise.”

While some, like Mannes, may be turned off by Trump’s actions, Lundskow said many look past them because they believe Trump was sent to be a representative of God.

“If I’m somebody who sees Donald Trump as God’s chosen representative, the leader God has chosen to bring the country back to the right direction, I’m willing to overlook his personal failings,” Lundskow explained. ”(Christians think) if he’s good enough to be God’s representative, he’s good enough to be president.”

The decision to leave

As the tension in his heart and the world around him continued to grow, Mannes said his feelings began to show in his sermons, causing discomfort for some parishioners.

Trying to keep his thoughts internalized became more and more difficult as time went on.

“What it was really doing was tearing me up,” he said. “I’ve had to be very careful to not speak about these things directly with members of the church.

“It’s not only me, but quite a number of pastors I know are just like, ‘This is it? All this preaching we did about Jesus and there’s this big of a disconnect?’ I think that’s a real burden on a lot of pastors’ hearts. I love these people, I love God, I love Jesus, I love the church, but there’s something happening here.”

Mannes sat down with the elders of his church in September to express the tensions he had been feeling. After a long and emotional meeting, they agreed it was time to part ways.

“We got down on our knees, many of us wept. It was a really hard decision,” Mannes said. “It was time for me to lovingly and with great peace and loss separate from the church. It was really crushing because I’ve given my life to the church, and thankfully so.”

‘Be the conscience’

Mannes says he understands many Christians will vote for Trump, and he will still love those who do, but implores them to think about what it means to be a Christian before making their choice.

“I would just implore anybody who claims Christ to just look very seriously at the core things Jesus called us to do and be,” he said. “Do some serious soul searching about who you’re serving and how you’re trying to accomplish that purpose in the world.”

He calls on his fellow Christians to be the conscience of the president, whoever it is, and force them to be better than the division that has become common.

“We’re supposed to be the conscience of the president and we have refused to do that,” Mannes said. “I don’t know that a church who believes in Jesus as we do, can abandon its conscience and not say, ‘Mr. President we’re calling you to better than that and you need to call our nation to better than that.’”

A few weeks prior to his last sermon, Mannes spoke with a member of the church, who asked him to reconsider his decision. The person asked him about his plans once he walked away, with no guarantee that the issue will even persist after Election Day.

“He said, ‘What are you going to do? What are you going to have?’” Mannes recalled. “Well, at least my conscience.”

These days, John Pavlovitz's evangelical ministry is online. His blog, Stuff That Needs To Be Said is stuff that needs to be read. Today he wrote one aimed squarely at Trump supporters: No, I Won’t Agree To Disagree. You’re Just Wrong. "At this point, with the past four years as a resume," he wrote, "your alignment with this president means that we are fundamentally disconnected on what is morally acceptable-- and I’ve simply seen too much to explain that away or rationalize your intentions or give you the benefit of the doubt any longer. I know what your reaffirmation of him is telling me about your disregard for the lives of people of color, about your opinion of women, about your attitude toward Science, about the faith you so loudly profess, and about your elemental disrespect for bedrock truth. I now can see how pliable your morality is, the kinds of compromises you’re willing to make, the ever-descending bottom you’re following into, in order to feel victorious in a war you don’t even know why you’re fighting. That’s why I need you to understand that isn’t just a schism on one issue or a single piece of legislation, as those things would be manageable. This isn’t a matter of politics or preference. This is a pervasive, sprawling, saturating separation about the way we see the world and what we value and how we want to move through this life."

And he was just getting started, perhaps with Keith Mannes' struggle in the back of his mind.

Agreeing to disagree with you in these matters, would mean silencing myself and more importantly, betraying the people who bear the burdens of your political affiliations-- and this is not something I’m willing to do. Our relationship matters greatly to me, but if it has to be the collateral damage of standing with them, I’ll have to see that as acceptable.

• Your devaluing of black lives is not an opinion.
• Your acceptance of falsehoods is not an opinion.
• Your defiance of facts in a pandemic is not an opinion.
• Your hostility toward immigrants is not an opinion.

• These are fundamental heart issues.

I’m telling you this so that when the chair is empty this Thanksgiving, or the calls don’t come, or you meet with radio silence, or you begin to notice the slow fade of our exchanges, I want you to know why: it’s because I have learned how morally incompatible we are. It doesn’t mean I don’t respect you or even love you, but it means proximity to you isn’t going to be healthy.

I’ve been disagreeing with people all my life. That isn’t the issue here.

Were we talking about anything less than the lives of other human beings, I’d be more than willing to disagree with you and, but since we are talking about the lives of other human beings-- I can’t.

I believe you’re wrong in the ways that are harming people.

You’re wrong to deny the humanity of other human beings.

You’re wrong to justify your affiliation with this violence.

You’re wrong to embrace a movement built on the worst parts of who we are.

I simply can’t agree to that.

Now, give yourself a Sunday treat and allow the Resistance Revival Chorus to show you what Mannes' courage to speak truth to power sounds like in song:

Biden Is Taking The Offensive Against A Floundering Trump

COVID-Kemp

Thanks to an incompetent ideologically-insane Trumpist governor, Georgia is one of the worst hit states by the pandemic. Georgia is the 8th most populous state but has the 5th most COVID cases of any state-- and the third most active cases, behind just Florida and California. Yesterday, Georgia reported 1,498 new cases, bringing the total to 270,471 cases, which comes to 25,474 cases per million residents (6th worst in the country and likely to overtake Alabama, for 5th place soon). Georgia now has had more cases than Italy, a country that was considered a disaster zone and that has around 6 times more residents than Georgia. Simple fact: Georgia has been, and still is, a text book case of how not to handle a pandemic. Republicans-- locally and nationally-- are allowing partisanship and ideology to drive decision-making, rather than science and public health concerns. Perhaps that helps explain why Trump is in trouble with independent voters in a state he won in 2016 by 5 points.

Almost all polling this summer has shown Biden and Trump within the margin of error. The most recent poll-- a PPP survey released yesterday-- shows Trump's approval underwater (52% disapproving and 46% approving) and shows Biden narrowly ahead 47-46% (within the margin of error).

Georgia has been a state where Republicans could count on winning without spending much-- and Democratic presidential candidates haven't seriously contested the state since... Jimmy Carter. This year, both Trump and Biden are spending money on advertising there. Biden has reserved ads in 9 states besides Georgia that Trump won in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. Trump has ads booked in just 3 states that Hillary won in 2016-- Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Trump is playing defense in Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and is likely to start taking Texas seriously as well.

Yesterday, CNN's Chris Cillizza reported that "the number of swing states is far larger than we've seen in any recent election, a reflection of President Donald Trump's asymmetrical politics and the rapidly changing demographics in the country."

That there are 15 states that meet that bar is a remarkable testament to how wide the two sides see the potential playing field-- and how far we have come in the past two decades in terms of what can be considered a swing state. If you think back to the 2000 and 2004 elections, the group of swing states was familiar-- and small. Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and maybe one or two others. And that was pretty much it. Both sides were forced to dump tens of millions of dollars into that handful of states, not because they wanted to, but because they couldn't justify spending that money in other states in hopes of turning them.

Barack Obama broke that deadlock in 2008 with wins in Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia, states no Democrat had won at the presidential level in decades. And Trump further widened the swing-state category by notching wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, typically Democratic victories, in 2016.

What's clear from the ad reservations for this fall is that the we are now dealing with an even wider playing field. Both campaigns have reserved time in Arizona, a state long safely in the Republican column. Ditto Minnesota, a state a Republican presidential candidate hasn't won since 1972(!).

Viewed broadly, the size of the playing field -- and the states included in it-- suggest that Biden is a) playing more offense than defense and b) sees a massive Electoral College victory as a genuine possibility.

...The most fascinating part of the ad reservation is that Biden has blocked out time in Texas and Georgia, two major electoral vote treasure troves, and two states that haven't been won by a Democratic running for president since 1976 and 1992, respectively. Polling in both states shows the race close; Trump has a 3.5 point lead in the Real Clear Politics polling average in Texas and a 1.1 point average margin in Georgia.

If Biden were to win one or both of Texas and Georgia, he would have at least the possibility of a major-- 350-plus electoral votes-- Electoral College landslide. (House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said for the better part of the last two years that Democrats must win "big" in order to avoid Trump aggressively contesting the result and refusing to concede.)

But it's more than just Electoral College calculus at work here. If Biden goes through with his plans to spend on ads in Texas and Georgia -- which is a big "if" given how expensive statewide TV buys are in both states -- he would likely force Trump's campaign to spend (and spend heavily) in those states, too. And every dollar Trump spends defending Texas or Georgia (or both) is a dollar he can't play offense with in Minnesota or Nevada or Virginia.

The widening of the electoral playing field has been happening gradually over the past three elections. But for 15 states to be in the mix this late in a presidential election cycle-- including Electoral College monsters like Texas and Georgia-- is a new chapter in modern American politics. And one that holds all sorts of possibilities-- for both parties-- in future races.

I asked how Julie Oliver how it will play out in her district. Democratic presidential candidates haven't really campaign in Texas is ages. "Texans," she told me this morning, "put our state in play, running everywhere as hard as we could in 2018-- before anyone thought it was winnable. Just everyday people, standing up, building the movement to take our state back from the corrupt ideologues who for too long have tried to keep all of us divided while they enriched themselves. And in 2020, it's time for real change.

Like Julie and all Democratic candidates in swing states, Michigan state Rep and congressional candidate Jon Hoadley is happy to see Biden taking the Democratic case to voters in his state. "It's welcome news that the Biden/Harris ticket is campaigning in Michigan," he told me this morning. "We saw what happened four years ago when people took Michigan for granted. Voters want us to not only make the case why we're better for the job than the other candidates, but why we deserve their vote at all. A strong Biden/Harris ticket in Michigan will help bolster the case we're making for change in southwest Michigan, push back against the lies being spread by secret dark money groups, and remind even more voters what's at stake in this election." Meanwhile, Hoadley is hardly waiting; yesterday he launched his own first TV ad:

Trumpist Pastor Who Keeps Infecting More Members Of His Congregation, Claims Death From COVID-19 Is "A Welcome Friend"

Totally In Control by Nancy Ohanian

Thursday, a new Gallup poll showed Trump's pandemic job approval collapsing-- down 6 points in a month. Yesterday, ABC News released a new poll by Ipsos filled with more bad news for Houdini. Americans, the poll confirming what you probably have already surmised, are feeling pessimistic. ABC News reported that "three in four Americans think they will be able to resume their regular routine by the end of the summer, which is down from 84% who said the same in an ABC News/Ipsos poll released on April 3. In the newest poll, two-thirds of Democrats (66%) and an overwhelming 93% of Republicans view the end of the summer as the timeframe for a return to normal."

The Republican death cult is still adamant about infected normal people. In L.A. it's mandatory to wear a mask when entering a store. People without masks are-- to put it mildly-- shunned. I have seen two get beaten up, one seriously. But in Republican hell-holes people still don't wear masks. The poll also showed that Trump's handling of the crisis has a majority of Americans disapproving-- 54%, to just 44% who think he's doing an adequate job.

You've probably heard about how religionist hecklers have refused to allow the pandemic to interfere with their cash streams and have insisted on continuing to rob their followers. On Thursday, Elizabeth Williamson reported on the results of the Jerry Falwell scam at Liberty "University," luring students back to campus to be infected. His campus is now a hot bed of contagion. In the last 2 weeks, over 70 in the community have caught it and they've had their first death. "[A] Liberty student on Monday filed a class-action lawsuit in a federal court in Virginia, saying that Liberty and Mr. Falwell had 'placed students at severe physical risk and refused to refund thousands of dollars in fees owed to them for the Spring 2020 semester,' according to a statement from the law firm filing the suit."

Falwell told an unabashed Trumpist radio host, John Fredericks, that the media is behind the whole thing and that they "just want power, they’re authoritarian, they’re like nothing I’ve seen since, if you go back in history, to Nazi Germany. That’s what they remind me of." He's trying to have reporters arrested by campus security guards and threatening law suits.





Another member of the GOP death cult, satanic "pastor" Tony Spell of Baton Rouge has insisted on large church gatherings and has spread COVID-19 among the poor suckers who take him seriously. One parishioner died.

News of the death comes hours after a lawyer representing Spell and the church in an expected legal fight over the state's social distancing restrictions on churches confirmed he had been hospitalized and was on oxygen after contracting the virus.

The lawyer, Jeff Wittenbrink, attended two events at Life Tabernacle Church-- an April 2 news conference and an April 5 church service, and has been at Baton Rouge General since Tuesday after progressively worsening conditions, including a high fever and persistent cough, he said.

...Spell's fight against the order, along with a handful of other religious leaders nationally against similar restrictions, has attracted worldwide attention. He has been charged with six misdemeanor counts of violating Edwards' orders.

Spell, who has faced criticism over his stand, has made several provocative comments about the virus and the resulting controversy, including telling TMZ that true Christians do not mind dying from the virus but from "fear living in fear, cowardice of their convictions."

While many houses of worship have converted to online services, Spell maintains that in-person services are essential to his congregation's faith and financial well-being. 

Charlie Cook mused about what would be the deciding factor for voters in November. Unless it's a referendum on Biden, Trump will have virtually no chance at reelection. "When incumbent presidents run for reelection, it is normally a referendum on that incumbent. If that turns out to be the case again this time, what specific aspect of the Trump presidency will be judged-- voter’s personal views of President Trump, or more broadly whether Americans want to renew his contract for another four years? Or will it be purely about his handling of the coronavirus crisis? Will it be about Trump’s stewardship over the economy, and if so, about his first three years in office, or where it is for all of 2020, or just where it is over the past 60 or 90 days before the Nov. 3 election? Or could it be about something else, either involving Trump or the now-presumptive nominee, Joe Biden?"

One thing is certain, Trump's inept, deceitful, dysfunctional and failed handling of the pandemic won't be helping GOP election efforts this year. "The pandemic, which has killed more than 30,000 Americans and left millions out of work," wrote Jonathan Lemire for AP, "has eviscerated Trump’s hope to run for reelection on a strong economy. A series of states he won in 2016 could tilt toward Democrats. In Florida, a Republican governor closely aligned with Trump has come under scrutiny for being slow to close the state. In Wisconsin, the Democratic victor in last week’s Supreme Court race captured 28 counties, up from the 12 that Hillary Clinton won four years ago. In Michigan, a Democratic governor has seen her approval rating rise against the backdrop of a fight with Trump. And in Arizona, low marks for Trump could be enough to turn the formerly Republican stronghold into a tossup."

In southwest Michigan, a knee-jerk Trump ally, Fred Upton, is known as a 100% Trump enabler. Upton's challenger this year is progressive state Rep Jon Hoadley. I asked him if Trump is turning out to be an anchor around the incumbent's neck. "Gov. Whitmer is doing the right thing by listening to scientists and public health experts to keep Michiganders safe," he told me last night. "Unfortunately, Congressman Upton is parroting President Trump and advocating for a rushed reopening that puts the health and safety of our communities at risk. When you need to fix your car, you go to a mechanic. When you’re sick, you go to a doctor. When we’re in a public health crisis, you should listen to scientists and public health experts. Voters across Southwest Michigan will remember Rep. Upton was following the lead of President Trump who called our global pandemic 'a hoax' instead of looking out for us.

Trump's Toxicity Has Wrecked The Chances For Republicans Like Rodney Davis, John Katko And Fred Upton To Be Reelected

Remember when I told you that Change Research is this cycle's polling outfit to pay attention to? I was in heaven seeing their latest-- surveys in 3 battleground congressional districts, Michigan's 6th (Fred Upton), New York's 24th (John Katko) and Illinois' 13th (Rodney Davis). All the incumbents are Republicans and all the districts are swingy and flippable. Two, MI-06 and NY-24, have solid progressive challengers, respectively Jon Hoadley and Dana Balter) and the other has a fairly worthless Cheri Bustos/DCCC careerist who stands for nothing at all and is so ashamed of the Democratic Party that she has no issues on her campaign site, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan.

Although IL-13 is now rated R+3, Obama won it convincingly in 2008 and was virtually tied in 2012. Hillary, exactly the wrong kind of candidate for a district like this, lost by 5 points to Trump in 2016. In the primaries, Bernie won resoundingly, showing what Democrats want there-- change not status quo, so of course the Democratic establishment gave them putrid example of the status quo-- Londrigan-- as their candidate. She lost. And she's back again. There are 14 counties in the district, though most of the votes come out of just 5-- Champaign, Madison, Macon, Sangamon and McLean. This table shows how Bernie, Hillary and Trump did on primary day:

• Champaign- Bernie- 20,581 (65.9%), Hillary- 10,542 (33.8%), Trump- 7,645
• Madison- Bernie- 18,723 (54.5%%), Hillary- 15,332 (44.6%), Trump- 15,588
• Macon- Bernie- 4,990 (45.2%), Hillary- 5,945 (53.8%), Trump- 6,655
• Sangamon- Bernie- 10,365 (52.6%), Hillary- 9,255 (46.9%), Trump- 11,930
• McLean- Bernie- 12,936 (62.4%%), Hillary- 7,695 (37.1%), Trump- 8,653
• Macoupin- Bernie- 3,552 (55.0%), Hillary- 2,770 (42.9%), Trump- 3,527
• Christian- Bernie- 1,526 (51.2%), Hillary- 1,395 (46.8%), Trump- 2,392
• Montgomery- Bernie- 1,266 (49.3%), Hillary- 1,241 (48.3%), Trump- 2,269
• Jersey- Bernie- 1,069 (54.5%), Hillary- 853 (43.5%), Trump- 1,902
• Piatt- Bernie- 1,016 (55.5%), Hillary- 787 (43.0%), Trump- 1,496
• De Witt- Bernie- 659 (53.3%), Hillary- 561 (45.4%), Trump- 1,577
• Greene- Bernie- 530 (49.4%), Hillary- 503 (46.9%), Trump- 1,014
• Calhoun- Bernie- 503 (50.7%), Hillary- 446 (45.0%), Trump- 329
• Bond- Bernie- 858 (53.4%), Hillary- 718 (44.7%), Trump- 1,102

Change Research explained that the goals of the 3 surveys "were to understand how closely voters were tracking Trump’s Ukraine scandal, the House Intelligence Committee hearings, what evidence and arguments for or against impeachment are most resonant, whether voters recognize the seriousness Trump’s actions, and how voters expect their member of Congress to hold Trump accountable." It's the final goal that most interests us here but I encourage you to read the whole analysis. These are the PVIs of the three districts:

• IL-13: R+3
• NY-24: D+3
• MI-06: R+4

In their intro, Change Research explains that Katko, Upton and Davis "enter 2020 with exceptionally low favorability ratings and with majorities disapproving of their handling of the impeachment inquiry and their record when it comes to holding President Trump accountable. A majority of voters in these key Republican districts think what Trump did was wrong and, once they hear the facts, are less likely to support Members of Congress who oppose the impeachment inquiry. Specifically, majorities express concern about facts established during the impeachment inquiry and believe that the primary grounds for impeachment have been established-- including believing Trump abused the power of his office, withheld military funds to pressure a foreign country to investigate a political rival, and put his personal political interests before the good of the country. The survey also found that voters will not reward Republicans for their opposition to impeachment: just 38% say they are more likely to support a member of Congress who opposes impeachment at the end of the survey, while a 54% majority says they are less likely to support an impeachment opponent after hearing arguments on both sides. The message is clear: voters in these districts believe their representatives should put politics aside during impeachment and do their job."

I. Republican incumbents are unpopular and voters believe they are not doing enough to hold Trump accountable

The vulnerability of these Republican members of Congress is reflected in their favorability ratings, which start from a net negative position in each district. John Katko is 8 points net unfavorable and Rodney Davis is 10 points net unfavorable. Fred Upton, is a remarkable 40 points net unfavorable. In particular, majorities in these swing districts-- districts where it still pays to appear independent-- disapprove of the job their congressman is doing standing up to President Trump and holding President Trump accountable. Majorities also disapprove of their congressman’s handling of the impeachment inquiry.

But if these Republicans are hoping to take on enough of Trump’s water today to make it through their GOP primary, and rely on their approval ratings on the economy to survive another general election, they should take a look at their dismal approval ratings on voters’ top priority, health care costs. Just 37% approve of Rodney Davis’ handling on health care costs, just 32% approve of John Katko’s handing, and a dismal 26% approve of Fred Upton’s handling of health care costs.

II. Voters are closely tracking the impeachment inquiry

After the House Intelligence Committee’s hearings, seven-in-ten voters have heard or seen a lot about the impeachment inquiry, and they are very concerned by what they have learned.

...It is clear that voters, even in these more conservative-leaning districts, believe that the President’s conduct is wildly inappropriate and worthy of the investigation underway. Regardless of their feelings about impeachment, majorities in these districts believe that Trump has engaged in conduct that will ultimately provide the basis for impeachment articles - including abusing the power of his office (52%, 47% strongly), withholding military funds to pressure another country to investigate a political rival (52%), putting his personal political interests before the good of the country (51%, 47% strongly), and engaging in corruption (51%). Majorities also believe he has intimidated a witness (53%), undermined the rule of law (51%), and even committed crimes (51%).

III. GOP arguments are less effective than those of impeachment supporters at moving ‘impeachment persuadables’

About half of voters in these GOP-held districts already support impeachment without reservation, while just three-in-ten voters oppose impeachment and think Trump did nothing wrong. This leaves over one-in-five who are still impressionable on the impeachment question.

... As the impeachment proceedings progress, these Republican members of Congress have few convincing arguments in their arsenal. The argument that “Donald Trump’s actions are very troubling, but with an election coming next year, Congress should not overturn 63 million votes by impeaching the President now” was ‘not convincing at all’ to a stunning 55% majority of voters, including 36% of Republicans. A similar argument that says “Donald Trump may have engaged in wrongdoing, but it is not worthy of impeachment, which will divide our country and stop progress on critical issues like health care and trade deals” was ‘not convincing at all’ to 52% of voters, including 30% of Republicans.


Also unconvincing is an argument that “President Trump was right to ask his lawyer to investigate corruption in Ukraine. Ukraine has had it out for Trump since the 2016 election,” which was ‘not convincing at all’ to nearly half of voters. This conspiracy theory seems to have some traction, however, with the Republican base. While 83% of Democrats and 46% of independents give this a 0 on a 1-10 scale (where 0 means it is not convincing at all and 10 means it is very convincing), 47% of Republicans say it is a ‘very convincing’ argument against impeachment.


 ...The good news for impeachment supporters is that their arguments for impeachment are stronger by comparison. The strongest arguments say that the evidence demonstrates that Trump’s conduct has reached an established bar for impeachment-- which is what the Judiciary Committee was attempting to demonstrate to the public in last week’s hearings.

An argument that the evidence shows “Trump abused the power of this office for personal gain, an impeachable offense in the Constitution, and in so doing undermined our national security, to the benefit of the Russians, by withholding taxpayer funded military aid to Ukraine” was a ‘very convincing’ justification for impeachment for nearly 4-in-10 voters. As convincing was an argument that the evidence establishes Trump “solicited a bribe, an offense listed in the Constitution as one worthy of impeachment, by withholding taxpayer-funded military aid and a White House visit to pressure Ukraine to give something of value to his re-election.”

A majority of these voters acknowledge that Trump has abused the power of his office, withheld military aid to pressure an ally to investigate a political rival, put his personal political interests above the good of the country, and more. Majorities find the evidence established in the investigation concerning, and majorities disapprove of the way these Republican congressmen are handling the inquiry and their approach to Trump.

...After hearing from both sides on impeachment, a majority of voters in these GOP-leaning districts are now willing to punish these GOP members for their unwillingness to participate in the impeachment inquiry, with 54% saying they are less likely to support a member of Congress that opposes the impeachment inquiry. That includes 54% of voters in IL-13, 53% of voters in MI-6, and 56% of voters in NY-24.

IV. Conclusion

A majority of voters in these key districts think what Trump did was wrong and, once they hear the facts, are less likely to support Members of Congress who are opposed to the impeachment inquiry. The message is clear: these representatives should put politics aside during impeachment and do their job.

The Democrats Finally Have The Candidate To Beat Fred Upton-- Meet Jon Hoadley

MI-06, the southwest corner of the state, flush up against Lake Michigan in the west and Indiana in the south, has been an elusive target for Democrats. Obama beat McCain by 8 points; Romney edged Obama by a little over a point; and then along came Hillary... and Trump won 51.3% to 42.9%. She was the wrong candidate for the district, even with Trump as the opponent. There are 6 counties in this R+4 swing district-- and in the 2016 it was Bernie country. The well known narrative about primary day is that Bernie beat Hillary in every county. Kalamazoo is the bluest (and most populous) county and Bernie took it 20,146 too 12,593. Cass in the reddest (and smallest) county and Bernie took it more narrowly-- 1,683 to 1,657. But the lesser known narrative is that on that primary day, Bernie also beat Trump. Trump had 30,518 votes. Bernie had 37,191 votes. People in MI-06 knew what they wanted. It wasn't Trump and it wasn't Hillary.

Like Bernie, state Rep. Jon Hoadley puts ordinary working families first. He's an "us, not me" kind of candidate-- with a record in the legislature to prove it. His own legislative district, HD 60, is entirely within the 6th congressional district. In 2018, with the GOP boasting that they would beat him, he annihilated their candidate 26,772 (76.6%) to 8.181 (23.4%).

For the past month, Hoadley has been traveling to every corner of the district, meeting the people who live there, listening to what they are looking for from Washington and sharing his ideas about what he wants from Washington for MI-06. He's 35 and the ideas he talks about infuriates the Republicans in Washington. On his first day on the stump, he told voters in Portage that "We have people that are worried about living paycheck to paycheck right now. We saw that with the government shutdown. We know that to solve the problem about access to clean drinking water in our district is going to take significant support from both the state and federal government." The Republican response was basically the same as what they say about every single Democrat running in every single district: "He's a socialist and a protégé of Ilhan Omar." When Republicans in DC hear Hoadley talking about expanding Medicare to include dental, vision, prescription drugs, etc and to offer it to all Americans, they tell voters he wants to take away their health insurance. That's what he's up against. I asked him to share a guest post as an introduction to DWT readers and Blue America supporters. Please read it below. And if you like it, please consider contributing to his campaign by clicking on the Blue America thermometer on above.


Let's Get Serious: Reagan Era Economics Was The Biggest Scam Ever Pulled
by Jon Hoadley



There's been a story told over the past 30 years that goes something like this: if the people at the top do even better, the rest of us will be a little better off, too. The characters change, but the story remains the same: if the people with the best healthcare have even more, life saving medicine may one day be available to everyone else. If we lower taxes on billionaires and millionaires, one day we'd see our wages go up. If we keep telling our schools to fight amongst themselves, universities to do more with less, and career and technical education to make do without basic equipment, one day all of our kids would learn more.

That day isn't coming.

When we think of the massive challenges that America faces in the 21st century: healthcare and taking care of our loved ones, income inequality and economic security for our families, education and student debt, and tackling the pending global disaster that is climate change, I'm reminded that so many of these were caused by decisions made by the politicians of the past that didn't prepare us for the needs of the future. So many of those decisions were made during a period in which Ronald Reagan and conservative Republicans sold Americans a bill of goods: That low taxes and small government were the only solution.

This wasn't just an assault on taxes, this was an assault on community- the belief that we were all in this together. Some politicians, as well as some millionaires and billionaires, saw an opportunity to create a reboot of an old sitcom-- unchecked corporate power where the people at the top get to write the new rules and the old rules somehow don't apply. According to supply-side economists, many of the lessons learned after the last economic crash started to have asterisks, exceptions. Savings and Loans associations weren't exactly banks, so they received an asterisk. Housing prices couldn't possibly go down, asterisk. The tech industry and start-up culture don't really have overtime hours, asterisk.

Politicians capitalized on the crisis or crises of the moment to tell America a too-easy tale of self-reliance. Those tales degraded the underlying truth that in community we are always standing on the shoulders of those who came before us. Speaking of bootstraps and freeloaders, politicians sold an idea that people take advantage of everyone else by accepting food assistance, or medical care, or social security or unemployment. Politicians then use those falsehoods to justify cutting the social safety net-- and cutting taxes for the wealthiest Americans. The story, which never lined up with reality, produced electoral wins, more cuts, a cycle of disinvestment in our shared priorities, and avoidance of our greatest challenges that continues to today.

The reality is the economy isn't set up to let most families get ahead anymore. This failure shows up not just as the millions of families in poverty, but the millions more families who are barely making it. Low taxes left 40% of families unable to afford a $400 emergency. Small government left 78% of Americans unable to make ends meet if they missed two paychecks. It also let some of America's largest banks get a bailout and the rest of us with the bill. It is the failure caused by the take-care-of-the-people-at-the-top-first economic thinking that creates these problems, not the failure of the people working day in and day out to make ends meet.

The idea that families feel personally responsible for not being able to afford childcare despite two parents working multiple jobs and a side hustle, the idea that students must mortgage their future to earn a chance to work a job that barely pays the bills, the idea that an employer and an insurance company should have more say than a doctor in deciding if someone has access to life-saving medicine-- these are the last episodes of that doomed-to-fail reboot.

But those fictional tales and tired reboots don't have to be told tomorrow.

The bill has come due for choices made 10, 20, and 30 years ago. We need to put people and community back in the center of our debate. That means having enough love for our country to invest in the roads, rails, bridges, and broadband that benefits all of us and being honest that no one could afford these items alone. That means having enough faith in our country that educating the next generation of students will unleash decades of talent and leadership that will keep America strong and benefit all of us, even if we don't have our own children or didn't receive the same support when we were in school. That means having enough clarity in our future to say President Trump's tax scam handcuffed our ability to tackle the major challenges our country faces all while saddling our children with a growing federal deficit and debt to foreign powers for years to come. That means having enough wisdom to disregard the false conflict between unions and protecting our environment, knowing that a renewable economy will create hundreds of billions of dollars in new construction and manufacturing jobs with secure paychecks for honest people doing an honest day's work.

Putting people and community back in the center of our decisions means standing up to the wealthy few and political talking heads who have for far too long told the rest of us we have earned nothing at all. We can stop talking in sound bites about health care, and education and reducing things to the same old press releases if we choose. The experiment of the 1980s didn't work. It's time politicians of the past stop spinning fiction. Our future reality, together, can make a much better story.

New Candidate Alert: Jon Hoadley Is Taking On Fred Upton In Southwest Michigan

Michigan's 60th HD is entirely within the boundaries of the 6th congressional district, and the state Rep. from the 60th, Jon Hoadley, announced yesterday he will be running for the congressional seat against very vulnerable Republican Fred Upton. The 60th includes Kalamazoo and a small part of Portage. Last November, when Republican William Baker challenged Hoadley, Hoadley pulverized him 26,772 (76.6%) to 8,181 (23.4%).

The congressional district, which is the southwest corner of the state, is a purple district that Obama won in 2008 with 53.1% but that Trump took in 2016 with 51.3%. It's more a Bernie kind of place than a part of the state that would get behind Hillary. In the 2016 primary, Bernie beat Hillary handily in the district and, on the same day, also beat Trump. Kalamazoo County, for example went strongly for Bernie- 20,146 (60.6%) to 12,593 (37.9%). On the same day, Trump came in third in the GOP primary, with just 8,655 votes. It was the same story in smaller Allegan County, where Bernie beat Hillary 5,545 (60.3%) to 3,489 (38.0%) and also got more votes than Trump (5,327). Bernie also took Van Buren, St Joseph and Cass counties. The kind of legislative record and record of leadership that Hoadley has demonstrated will give him an edge over whichever conservative Democrat EMILY's List winds up recruiting to run against him.

The 35 year old Hoadley is openly gay and a member of People for the American Way's Young Elected Officials network. He announced his candidacy yesterday evening at the Portage District Library, noting that "We have people that are worried about living paycheck to paycheck right now. We saw that with the government shutdown. We know that to solve the problem about access to clean drinking water in our district is going to take significant support from both the state and federal government." This is how the NRCC welcomed him to the race, something every Democratic candidate should be prepared for:

Hoadley's campaign called it a "meaningless, laughable attack" that shows the GOP os "petrified." So how did the Republicans come up with this silly attack? Perhaps it was because of how Hoadley articulated his legislative priorities last year when he kicked their candidate's ass:

Invest in education for today and tomorrow: Let's invest more in our students, give teachers the freedom to teach to the individual students-- not the test, reduce class size, lower or eliminate student debt, and help us compete globally with the best trained talent and skilled labor.

Build an economy that works for everyone: Let's make sure more people are benefiting when productivity and the economy improve. It's time to stop giving away our tax dollars to the most profitable companies through tax breaks that aren't creating new jobs. Let's strengthen unions, raise the minimum wage, and help rebuild the middle class.

Champion social justice and protecting the environment: Let's prohibit discrimination in Michigan based on sexual orientation and gender identity by expanding the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act, protect a women's right to choose, end mass incarceration and reform the criminal justice system, promote a caring economy to deal with issues related to long-term care, earn paid sick and family leave time, and make our hospitals safer by improving our laws related to nursing and healthcare. Let's work together to protect our drinking water from lead, PFAS, and other contaminants, while tackling global warming.

Unrig our Democracy: Let's end gerrymandering, improve access to the ballot, end the legislator-to-lobbyist pipeline caused by term-limits, and reduce the role of money in politics.

...I am running for office because I believe in a Michigan that invest in people. I fundamentally believe that government has the power to do good in the world when good people power the government. Coming from a family of teachers, I have work to continue fighting for education for today and tomorrow, lowering class size, and reducing student debt.

As a small business owner, I know we need to do more to raise wages, make sure economic improvements reach the pockets of working people, and end giveaways to the most profitable companies. Finally, we need to protect the environment, promote social justice, and unrig our democracy. There's a lot of work to do, but together we can get it done.

Yeah... none of that is exactly music to Trumpist ears. And this will be the new GOP attack, along with accusing every Democratic candidate of being Nancy Pelosi. Well, since Fred Upton is another privileged trust fund baby like Trump and backs all the same disastrous policies that Trump does against working families, it would be a lot more honest if the NRCC just comes out and admits that Fred Upton is just basically Donald J. Trump.

UPDATE from Paul Clements

Paul Clements, who ran for the MI-06 seat twice, first introduced us to Hoadley. This afternoon he reiterated that Jon's "a strong progressive, a great organizer, and a good friend. Over all the years I have known Jon he has worked hard to build the Democratic Party in Kalamazoo and across Michigan, not just as an institution, but as one with a living commitment to social justice. Jon shows up. He consistently brings a clear strategic vision,  he has been an effective legislator, he has inspired many activists young and old, and he is eminently trustworthy. I am happy to offer him my enthusiastic endorsement."

Did Biden Cost Us A Seat In Michigan?

Joe Biden by Nancy Ohanian

Matt Longjohn was a good solid progressive candidate last year in MI-06, the southwest Michigan district that is centered on Kalamazoo and includes all or part of 6 counties: Kalamazoo (the biggest and overwhelmingly blue), Berrien, Allegan, Van Buren, St. Joseph and Cass. Upton only managed to get 50.2% of the vote, his worst showing ever. Not one poll leading up to the election showed Upton hitting 50% and the last poll, from Change Research, had Longjohn beating him 42-40%. The Change Research polling for half a dozen tight races was extremely predictive, except in MI-06.

Upton, a hereditary multimillionaire, out-spent Longjohn $3,527,274 to $1,443,894. The DCCC largely ignored the race, as they did with nearly all progressive candidates, spending just $219,564. Did the DCCC kill the chance to replace Upton with a progressive? They had a role-- but apparently not as much as Joe Biden's! According to Alexander Burns' report, Biden's Paid Speech Buoyed The GOP In Midwest Battleground, Biden, well known as a virtual gaffe machine-- worse now that he's been getting increasingly senile-- stumbled into the MI-06 race and screwed it up for Longjohn, not on purpose, of course, but because he's still an asshole.

It was just before the election in November in one of the biggest and most crucial towns in the district, Benton Harbor in swingy Berrien County. Burns wrote that Biden "took the stage at Lake Michigan College as Representative Fred Upton, a long-serving Republican from the area, faced the toughest race of his career. But Mr. Biden was not there to denounce Mr. Upton. Instead, he was collecting $200,000 from the Economic Club of Southwestern Michigan to address a Republican-leaning audience, according to a speaking contract obtained by the New York Times and interviews with organizers. The group, a business-minded civic organization, is supported in part by an Upton family foundation."

Biden stunned Democrats and elated Republicans by praising Mr. Upton while the lawmaker looked on from the audience. Alluding to Mr. Upton’s support for a landmark medical-research law, Mr. Biden called him a champion in the fight against cancer-- and “one of the finest guys I’ve ever worked with.”

Mr. Biden’s remarks, coming amid a wide-ranging discourse on American politics, quickly appeared in Republican advertising. The local Democratic Party pleaded with Mr. Biden to repair what it saw as a damaging error, to no avail. On Nov. 6, Mr. Upton defeated his Democratic challenger by four and a half percentage points.

As Mr. Biden considers a bid for the presidency in 2020, the episode underscores his potential vulnerabilities in a fight for the Democratic nomination and raises questions about his judgment as a party leader. Mr. Biden has attempted to strike a balance since leaving office, presenting himself as a unifying statesman who could unseat President Trump while also working to amass a modest fortune of several million dollars.

But Mr. Biden’s appearance in Michigan plainly set his lucrative personal activities at odds with what some Democrats saw as his duty to the party, linking him with a civic group seen as tilting to the right and undermining Democrats’ effort to defeat Mr. Upton, a powerful lawmaker who in 2017 helped craft a bill to repeal the Affordable Care Ac

Eric Lester, a retired physician who chaired the Democratic Party in Berrien County, Mich., during the midterms, said he viewed Mr. Biden’s supportive remarks about Mr. Upton as a betrayal. Mr. Lester, who attended the speech, said he had confronted an aide to Mr. Biden in the hallway, telling him the former vice president had badly damaged the Democratic cause.

“It just gives Fred Upton cover and makes it possible for him to continue to pretend to be a useful, bipartisan fellow,” Mr. Lester recalled saying, adding, “I entered the hall with positive feelings about Mr. Biden and felt very frustrated.”

Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist and veteran of several presidential campaigns, said it was an open question whether voters in the party would punish candidates they see as overly friendly or cooperative with Republicans. He suggested that could be one of the defining pressures for Mr. Biden if he announces his candidacy.

“I really believe the country does not want to be at war with each other,” Mr. Trippi said. “But there is also the polarization going on, where people say: Damn it, I want to fight.”

Several people involved in planning the event said Mr. Upton, 65, had no role in arranging Mr. Biden’s appearance, and Mr. Upton said he was not involved. There is no evidence Mr. Biden was motivated to praise the lawmaker by anything other than sincere admiration, stemming from Mr. Upton’s role in crafting the 21st Century Cures Act after the death of Mr. Biden’s elder son, Beau, from cancer in 2015.

Bill Russo, a spokesman for Mr. Biden, said the research-funding legislation was the foundation of Mr. Biden’s relationship with Mr. Upton.

“It was one of the few bipartisan bills passed in an otherwise deeply divided and gridlocked Congress,” Mr. Russo said. “Vice President Biden believes to his core that you can disagree politically on a lot and still work together in good faith on issues of common cause-- like funding cancer research.”

Regarding Mr. Biden’s decision not to endorse Mr. Upton’s Democratic challenger, Matt Longjohn, Mr. Russo said the former vice president “received hundreds of requests for endorsements from all over the country and endorsed in 135 races this cycle where his impact could be greatest.”

Since leaving office, Mr. Biden has sought out opportunities to earn substantial income-- mainly through paid speeches and a multimillion-dollar book deal-- and his newfound wealth would be closely scrutinized in a presidential race. Mindful of Hillary Clinton’s stumbles in the 2016 presidential race, Mr. Biden has attempted to set guidelines for his activities that would minimize any political sensitivity, declining to give paid speeches to big banks or to accept foreign contributions to several nonprofit organizations he controls.

Mr. Biden has continued to pursue commercial activities while he is in the final stage of making a 2020 decision; he is scheduled to give a talk in Grand Prairie, Tex., a suburb of Dallas, on Thursday, as part of an extended tour promoting his 2017 book, Promise Me, Dad.

The speaking contract for Mr. Biden’s October appearance in Michigan suggests that the popular Democrat would have known he was addressing a Republican-leaning crowd. The speaking series was underwritten in part by organizations connected to Mr. Upton’s family: Among the biggest sponsors listed on the Economic Club’s website are the Whirlpool Corporation, which was co-founded by Mr. Upton’s grandfather, and the Frederick S. Upton Foundation, a family charity named for the same man.

The contract for Mr. Biden’s visit shows he was paid $200,000 for his appearance, including a $150,000 speaking fee and a $50,000 travel allowance. It also specifies that the audience would be “primarily older, conservative Republicans and local community members.” The document was disclosed in response to a Freedom of Information request made by America Rising, a Republican group that conducts research on Democratic candidates.

It is unclear whether the fees Mr. Biden received in this case are standard for all his speeches. Mr. Biden’s aides have declined to confirm what his rates are for paid appearances, including the appearance in Michigan, or how much he has earned through paid speaking since leaving office. In at least one instance, his speaking bureau, Creative Artists Agency, offered a reduced rate of $100,000, plus travel expenses, to the University of Utah.

If Mr. Biden were to have charged a similar range of fees for all his comparable speeches since leaving office, he would most likely have collected between $4 million and $5 million through speeches over the last two years.

Representatives of Lake Michigan College, which recently took over management of the Economic Club speaker series, and the Fredrick S. Upton Foundation confirmed that the Upton organization was a major sponsor of the series. Both organizations said Mr. Upton had no role in proposing or choosing the speakers. Lisa Cripps-Downey, president of the Berrien Community Foundation, a nonprofit that administers the Frederick S. Upton Foundation, confirmed that the organization had given substantial funding to the Economic Club, with an annual grant of $80,000 over the last three years-- a total close to a quarter-million dollars.

“When we see the speakers, we’re just as surprised as everybody else,” Ms. Cripps-Downey said.

Mr. Russo said Mr. Biden’s team had been aware that the Frederick S. Upton Foundation helped fund the Economic Club. He said Biden aides had vetted the funding sources for the speaking series and concluded they met his standards.

Mr. Upton, who confirmed in a statement that he attended Mr. Biden’s speech at Lake Michigan College, said he had “no idea” that Mr. Biden would refer to him at all, let alone so favorably. The two men ran into each other briefly at the venue, before Mr. Biden’s speech, and they agreed to follow up to discuss the medical-research law’s implementation, an aide to Mr. Upton said.

“Being in the audience with my family and hearing Vice President Biden reference our work together was an immense honor,” Mr. Upton said. “He was warmly received by everyone in attendance who were thrilled to have him there, including myself.”

For campus speeches, Mr. Biden refuses to let schools pay him with funds that come from the government or from extra fees charged to students-- requirements that appear to have been met in this case.

Candice Elders, a spokeswoman for Lake Michigan College, said funding for the speaking series there “comes from private sources through ticket sales, memberships, contributions, grants, sponsorships and event proceeds.” She said the grant from the Frederick S. Upton Foundation is part of a fund designed to make up any difference between expenses for the speaker series and the revenue brought in by events. Ms. Elders estimated that the Upton grant makes up about 11 percent of the series budget.

Ms. Elders said that no public money was used for the event, and that Mr. Biden addressed a group that included several hundred college and high school students while he was on campus. “Young people from area schools and nonprofit organizations are routinely invited to attend Economic Club events at no cost,” Ms. Elders said.

The greatest impact of Mr. Biden’s speech, however, was outside the lecture hall. His remarks about Mr. Upton ricocheted through Michigan’s Sixth Congressional District. Mr. Upton alluded to Mr. Biden’s praise in a debate with Mr. Longjohn the next day, and his campaign sent out a mailer stressing Mr. Upton’s bipartisan streak, including Mr. Biden’s description of him as “the reason we’re going to beat cancer.”

A business-backed Republican group, Defending Main Street, ran digital ads on Facebook showing a grinning Mr. Biden and the crucial quote-- “Fred Upton is one of the finest guys I’ve ever worked with”-- above a mock version of the former vice president’s signature.

Mr. Lester, the local Democratic chairman, said he strove to contain the damage. In an email to Mr. Biden’s staff, Mr. Lester implored the former vice president to back Mr. Longjohn: “Surely VP Biden did not intend to endorse Mr. Upton and slight the local Democratic candidate here,” he wrote.

Mr. Longjohn, the former national health officer of the YMCA, said in an interview that he had been disappointed to see Mr. Biden “clap Mr. Upton on the back in an establishment political way.” He said his campaign had reached out to Mr. Biden’s staff through an intermediary, seeking to discuss his involvement in the race.

“There was nothing but silence,” Mr. Longjohn said. “We had just requested a phone call and there was no response.”

Suggested follow-up reading: The Worst Democraps Who Want To Be President-- Part IV, Joe Biden... or these 7 posts explaining why Biden should not be the Democratic nominee in 2020. It's hard to think of a worse next president to follow Trump-- but if pressed I can. Biden would be the Democrats' Warren G. Harding... and that turned out rather badly for everyone, especially the American people.