Rumblings In Western New York-- If The Wave Is Strong Enough...

Only Collins has been arrested so far but Reed sells his votes to fracking interests

The most conservative congressional district in New York (NY-27) isn't one the DCCC thought was winnable. So they ignored it, allowing a progressive who backs Medicare-for-All, Nate McMurray, to win the primary. The Trumpist maniac Chris Collins was arrested, arraigned and released on bail, first saying he had withdrawn from seeking reelection and then deciding the would have a better chance at a plea bargain if he was a sitting member of Congress. So... Collins is running again and suddenly McMurray-- even in an R+11 district that Trump won 60-35%-- is looking like a contender. Even the DCCC, albeit reluctantly-- wound up endorsing a staunch progressive. He's been outraging Collins, while Collins hides out and avoids the media-- and his constituents. Yesterday, the Buffalo News, which normally always endorses incumbents regardless of party, endorsed McMurray.

"McMurray," wrote the editors, "may be aiming high, but he is not without notable accomplishments. They include development of the West River Parkway Trail and the arrival of cashless tolls on Grand Island. And while it’s a big leap from town supervisor to Congress, McMurray, a Democrat running in the state’s most Republican district, has pledged to find “core common values” with other members and to reflect voters’ concerns. By itself, Collins’ indictment renders him unsuitable. But even before the indictment, his reckless mingling of his private business with his public duties was troubling. And his push to eliminate New Yorkers’ deduction for state and local taxes was baffling and outrageous. He was so wed to ideological mumbo jumbo that he chose to hurt his constituents and all of New York. This may be one of the hottest congressional races but the decision should be easy. McMurray is the better choice."

There's another western New York district the DCCC thought unwinnable, NY-23, the district that Trump won 54.5-39.7% and stretches across the Southern Tier from the exurbs west of Binghampton to Ithaca and the Finger Lakes region, through Emira, Corning, Hornell, Olean, and Jamestown all the way to Lake Erie. The PVI is R+6 and the incumbent is Republican Tom Reed, who tries to portray himself as a "moderate" though his voting record is that of a pure Trump rubber-stamp. In the 2016 primaries, Hillary lost every county; this was pure Bernie country, making it even more unpalatable to the DCCC.

Tracy Mitrano narrowly won her primary and didn't seem to be making any noise, at least not nationally, until the last couple of weeks when she started gaining on Reed. As of the September 30 FEC reporting deadline, Reed had raised $3,219,777 to Mitrano's $1,037,942, not too much of a disparity for a Democrat to win in an anti-red wave cycle. Although No Labels spent $144,162 bolstering Reed, there has been no other significant outside money spent in the race so far. If Mitrano wins, it will be one of those, "who could have guessed?" results.

The only public poll shows Reed beating Mitrano 49-47%, though FiveThirtyEight has decided she only has a 1 in 6 chance of winning (17.3%).

Closer to the ground, the Buffalo News is less certain. The paper endorsed Reed but reports that he's less of a sure thing than was once thought. "Recent signs," wrote News reporter Sandra Tan, "suggest the eight-year Republican incumbent has a more serious fight on his hands from Democratic challenger Tracy Mitrano, who counts on support from Democratic and unaffiliated voters to unseat him. The Cook Political Report has added the Reed-Mitrano race to its list of competitive races, changing its position from 'solid' Republican to 'likely' Republican. 'It can't be ignored that Democrat Tracy Mitrano, former Director of IT Policy at Cornell University, raised $855,000 in the third quarter and is on air attacking Reed for voting for a $1.9 trillion tax giveaway for the wealthy,' wrote David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report."

Reed has opted to spend heavily on TV advertising, including a wave of negative campaign ads against his opponent. And, Reed received another Twitter endorsement Monday from President Trump, who tweeted Reed "has done a great job."

Reed remains the favorite to win, though his campaign appears to be taking nothing for granted.

"At the end of the day, Reed can probably count on Trump's popularity and Gov. Andrew Cuomo's unpopularity to keep him secure," Wasserman wrote. "But it's worth watching."

Reed, a Trump supporter, has touted his co-chairmanship of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus to reform the House of Representatives. He has referred to his desire to address the national debt, immigration reform and improvements in district infrastructure, among other issues.

"The job is not done," Reed told the Buffalo News Editorial Board earlier this month. "There’s a lot more work to do."

Reed's TV commercials typically show the smiling congressman touting his family and down-home values, but he has opted to run negative campaign pieces calling Mitrano a "liberal Ithaca extremist" who supports government-controlled health care and "heroin injection sites."

Mitrano called the negative ads by Reed misleading. And the Cook Political Report understated her third quarter fundraising by roughly $100,000, she said.

Mitrano said three-fourths of her contributions come from within the district, which extends across the Southern Tier from Jamestown to Ithaca.

"I think the message is out that Tom Reed has turned his back on this district and neglected his duties," she said.

Aside from enthusiastic Democrats, Mitrano added, she's also gaining support from politically unaffiliated voters who like her focus on education, affordable health care and student debt.

"He’s grasping at straws," she said. "He tries to paint me as someone who’s an extremist, who’s out of touch, and a risky choice. If there’s any extremist in this race, it’s him. He's the one who's out of touch."