Do You Hate Trump? Do You Love Trump? Or Are You In Between Or Undecided? That's Our Midterm

Prepare to meet the whirlwind, Señor T.

You probably already know that Trump-- who, as fake "president," doesn't do much anyway-- will spend the next 10 or 11 days campaigning for his rubber stamp candidates. Completely avoiding congressional swing districts or districts with too many independent voters, the White House political office has given him a schedule with 10 rallies where he can go and do his #MAGAbomber shtik. He may even double that and try 2 rallies a day. Obviously it's strictly a base strategy. He doesn't try to persuade anyone to vote for Republicans. He's just trying to turn out the haters and bigots and those prone to be motivated by the unfounded conspiracy theories he floats. His themes are fear of the migrant caravan, fear of the "angry mob" and that Democrats are "too dangerous to govern." So far, he hasn't been cheering the guy-- whether a Russian provocateur or run of the mill deranged MAGA jerk-- who sent pipe bombs to the Obamas, Clintons and half a dozen other people who Trump has fingered as "enemies" of his fascist regime.

Anyway... as we've been saying for months, he's succeeded in making this election all about him. USAToday released a new poll yesterday that confirms exactly that-- Trump "driving the decisions of a majority of voters who say they are determined to send a message of either support or opposition to him. That dynamic is giving Democrats an edge as the crucial campaign heads into the final stretch."

The problem for that strategy is that "though a majority of those surveyed say Trump will have 'a lot' of impact on their congressional vote on Nov. 6-- 35% who are casting their ballot to show their opposition to him, 23% to show their support-- more people oppose him than support him and by a margin of 51% to 43%, they say they plan to vote for a Democrat in 11 days.

Yesterday, Cook published some midterm election findings from Louisiana State University which conducted a national survey with an oversample of voters in the most competitive U.S. House districts. It pretty much confirms what we've been saying here all year and makes me more confident in my "over 50" prediction.

Democrats lead in the battleground that will determine control of the U.S. House.

Democrats lead in the battleground districts that will decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Among registered voters in the 72 most competitive districts, as rated by the Cook Political Report, Democrats lead Republicans 48-36. This 12-point advantage has a margin of error of +/- 9 points. Nationally, the Democratic advantage among registered voters is 7 points with a margin of error of +/- 6 points.

These competitive districts, the vast majority of which are held by Republicans, also have the highest levels of anti-incumbent sentiment. Where incumbents are on the ballot in these districts, 58 percent of registered voters say their own member of congress deserves to be voted out of office. In contrast, registered voters across the country as a whole split evenly between those who think their own member deserves reelection and those who think they deserve to be voted out of office.

President Trump is weighing down Republican prospects in the House battleground

Most voters say that President Trump will be a factor in how they vote in the midterm elections, and in competitive districts these voters break nearly two to one in saying that they are voting to show opposition to the president (42 percent) versus voting to show support for the president (23 percent).

The president’s net approval rating in competitive districts, all but four of which are Republican seats, is -24, much worse than his +12 net approval rating among registered voters in safer Republican districts.

When presented with a pro-Democrat message (“We should put Democrats in the majority to keep President Trump in check”) and a pro-Republican message (“We should keep Republicans in the majority to keep the economy strong”), 56 percent of registered voters in these competitive districts say the former comes closer to their own view while 42 percent say the latter.

2018 feels like 2010, in reverse

Today, 49 percent of Americans feel frustrated about Donald Trump’s presidency-- the same share who said they felt frustrated about Barack Obama’s presidency during the first round of midterm elections in his administration. Indeed, the shares who today say they feel “excited” (14 percent vs 8 percent in 2010), “proud” (17 percent vs 12 percent in 2010), “hopeful” (27 percent vs 32 percent), and “helpless” (29 percent vs 22 percent) about the presidency are quite close to those from eight years ago. The exception is an uptick in anger, from 25 percent in 2010 to 39 percent today.

The overall similarities in the aggregate mood masks a partisan swap since 2010. In 2010, 55 percent of Democrats and just 8 percent of Republicans said they felt “hopeful” about the Obama presidency. Today, 5 percent of Democrats and 59 percent of Republicans feel hopeful about the Trump presidency. Similarly, Democratic frustration with the presidency grew from 37 percent in 2010 to 74 percent this year, while it fell among Republicans from 70 percent to 21 percent.

Democrats have edge on interest, but not necessarily turnout

Continuing the pattern of 2010 in reverse, interest in the campaign among Democrats exceeds Republicans. Today, 56 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of Republicans have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of interest in following news about the congressional election campaigns. Eight years ago, Republicans led Democrats 53 percent to 40 percent.

Additionally, Democrats report engaging in more activities that are political over the past year than Republicans including attending a protest, contacting an elected official, and signing or circulating a petition.

Despite this activity, Democrats do not express a greater likelihood to vote in the midterm elections than Republicans. Seventy-five percent of Democrats either report that they have voted early or indicate a high likelihood of voting in the election, but 79 percent of Republicans do so as well. Of course, turnout among Democratic voters often lags behind Republicans in midterm elections. Closing that gap in this election marks a significant change for Democrats, but it does not indicate that Democratic enthusiasm will exceed that of Republicans on Election Day.

Americans’ confidence in integrity of elections varies by party and media sources

Most Americans (77 percent) are at least somewhat confident that their votes will be counted accurately. When it comes to the threat of interference from a foreign government in November’s elections, 52 percent say such interference is not very likely or not likely at all versus 44 percent who say it is likely or very likely. Most Americans (59 percent) also think that voter fraud happens only rarely or occasionally, while 39 percent say it happens somewhat often or very often.

Fifty-four percent of Americans who prefer to get their news from a print newspaper say they are very confident their votes will be counted accurately. However, only 34 percent of those who prefer to get their news from websites or smartphone apps and only 29 percent of those who prefer to get their news from social networking sites express the same confidence.

Although Republicans and Democrats share confidence in the accuracy of the vote count, they split over potential threats to the integrity of our elections. Democrats are more likely to say that foreign interference poses a greater threat to our elections than voter fraud-- 64 percent say foreign interference is likely or very likely, but only 38 percent say voter fraud happens somewhat often or very often. Republicans are more likely to say voter fraud poses a greater threat-- 52 percent say fraud happens somewhat often or very often, and just 24 percent say foreign interference is likely or very likely.

Economy and health care top voter concerns, while immigration, trade and guns lag

The economy and health care top the list of issues voters consider very important at 70 percent and 68 percent, respectively. In contrast, recent hot-button issues such as trade, immigration and guns rank relatively low in voters’ minds at 36 percent, 45 percent and 48 percent.

The parties diverge somewhat over which issue tops the list. Among Republicans, the economy is the top concern with 79 percent saying it is very important. Among Democrats, health care tops at 80 percent saying it is very important.

Evaluating President Trump and looking ahead to 2020

Many Americans-- including both Democrats and Republicans-- said they feel Donald Trump falls short on the traits they consider important for a president to have. For example, the vast majority of Americans (94 percent) think honesty is a somewhat important or very important quality of a president. Yet just 31 percent of Americans feel that the term “honest” describes President Trump somewhat well or very well. The pattern repeats across 13 additional traits featured in this survey: likable, decisive, strong, compassionate, ethical, intelligent, willing to compromise, straight-talker, patriotic, down to earth, cares about people like you, shares your values and unifying. The pattern holds both for Democrats and, to a lesser extent, for Republicans. The biggest gaps between what Americans say is an important presidential quality and what they perceive in President Trump are for honest, ethical and unifying. The smallest gaps are for patriotic, decisive and strong.

Nationally, 62 percent of Americans say they think President Trump deserves to be voted out of office in 2020, and 35 percent say he deserves to be reelected. These responses closely follow the president’s approval ratings, which stand at 56 percent disapproval and 36 percent approval in this poll.

While most Republicans (78 percent) say he deserves to be reelected in 2020, a sizable share of Republicans (41 percent) said they would nevertheless like to see the president face a serious primary challenge. This is especially high among Republicans in the battleground U.S. House districts, who split evenly between those who want to see a serious primary challenge (48 percent) and those who do not (49 percent).