Iowa Is About To Look A Lot Bluer, Even If Just A Pale Shade Of Blue

The Des Moines Register and Elizabeth Warren agree that J.D. should be the next congressman from IA-04-- while the DCCC snoozes

There was a big stir Saturday night when an early version of the Des Moines Register hit the internet. Iowa's leading newspaper announced their congressional endorsements: GOP has failed to govern; give Democrats a chance. They endorsed Democratic incumbent Dave Loebsack and 3 Democratic challengers to Republican incumbents: garden variety Democrats Abby Finkenauer, and Cindy Axne plus cutting edge progressive J.D. Scholten.

When Republicans achieved the trifecta in 2016, winning the presidency as well as holding the House and Senate, it seemed the country was poised to move beyond the GOP-engineered partisan gridlock that had characterized much of the previous six years.

Americans had reason to expect action from Congress, for better or worse, on a variety of issues ranging from health care and immigration to reducing government overspending.

Not so much, as it turned out. The Republican majority in Congress tried and failed to dismantle the Affordable Care Act without offering a plan of their own that a majority of their own members-- let alone a majority of the American people-- could support.  Instead, they have allowed the system to become increasingly unstable, leading to a lack of competition and rising premiums.

Republicans in Congress have not only failed at comprehensive immigration reform, but their action allowed protection to expire on young, undocumented Americans brought here as children. They haven’t even fully funded President Trump’s border wall. They stood by as the administration tried to bar Muslims from certain countries from entering the United States. They looked the other way as the administration shocked and dismayed the nation by separating young children from their parents at the border, holding them in detention and losing track of some of the kids.

Republicans promised fiscal responsibility, yet they have punted on putting the nation back on sound financial footing. Their one major legislative success, the 2017 tax cut, is projected to add $1.9 trillion to the debt. This, after Republicans howled endlessly about the comparatively meager deficits created during the Obama administration. The Congressional Budget Office said in August that these tax cuts and spending increases would become “unsustainable” if extended. But the House GOP, including Iowa’s three Republican representatives, voted last month for another $3.8 trillion in tax cuts.

The Republican majority has twiddled its thumbs while President Trump started a trade war with China, imposing tariffs and provoking retaliation that is hurting Iowa farmers by threatening export markets. They have even allowed the Farm Bill to expire, leaving town without resolving differences.

Some have argued that this election should be a referendum on President Trump. We disagree. This is about Congress, which has abdicated much of its constitutional duty and has failed to provide a check and balance to the executive branch.

Not only has the party failed to act as a check on the president, key Republicans have been complicit in trying to obstruct and undermine the investigation of a foreign power’s interference in a U.S. election. And by their silence they have tacitly endorsed the president’s racism, misogyny, white nationalism, divisiveness and crudity.

In becoming the party of Trump, the Republicans have forsaken traditional conservatism and given voters no rational alternative to the Democrats. The party needs to be voted out of power and spend a few years becoming again the party of Lincoln, not the party of Trump.

...4th District: Scholten

This one’s a no-brainer for any Iowan who has cringed at eight-term incumbent King’s increasing obsession with being a cultural provocateur. In his almost 16 years in Congress, King has passed exactly one bill as primary sponsor, redesignating a post office. He won’t debate his opponent and rarely holds public town halls. Instead, he spends his time meeting with fascist leaders in Europe and retweeting neo-Nazis.

His Democratic challenger, J.D. Scholten, a 38-year-old former professional baseball player from Sioux City, is a breath of fresh air. He’s focused entirely on working for the 4th District, particularly rural communities that are struggling with the effects of low commodity prices, Trump’s trade war and workforce shortages as a result of the immigration crackdown. His party label doesn’t match that of many of his voters, but he can relate to people across the political spectrum.

We particularly like Scholten’s willingness to vote for new leadership of his caucus in the interest of easing partisan gridlock. We endorse him not just as an antidote for King’s virulent xenophobia but as a promising new leader.

A few hours later the Washington Post noted that across the country, "Enthusiasm is up across almost all demographic groups, but the increases are greater among younger adults, nonwhite voters and those who say they favor Democrats for the House." This was based on a Langer Research poll they released with ABC News. It shows Trump's national approval/disapproval at 41-54% and generic Democratic candidates leading generic Republican candidates nationally by 11 points-- 53-42% among registered voters and even higher among likely voters.

Now, back to Iowa for a moment. In the first district, Rod Blum has already been tossed overboard by Ryan, basically among the walking dead. The 538 Forecaster gives him a 1 in 30 chance to win, a dismal 3.6% in a district Obama won twice but where Trump beat Hillary 48.7% to 46.2%. This is Bernie country and the PVI is still D+1. Abby Finkenauer is a mediocre candidate but she will beat Blum, a very far right incumbent. He has struggled to keep up with her fundraising by writing himself a $500,000 personal check. As of June 30 he had "raised" $1,780,866 to her $1,861,542. Democratic SuperPACs have spent $828,045 attacking Blum and no GOP PACs have spent on his behalf.

The 3rd district is closer. David Young is a wealthy, sad sack closet case who is about to lose his seat to a not very special Democrat, Cindy Axne. The 538 Forecaster gives him a 42.7% chance of reelection-- 3 in 7... and dropping. The PVI is R+1 and, again, Obama won twice with Trump beating Hillary 48.5% to 45.0%.

The 4th district is the real red part of Iowa-- Obama lost both times and Trump took it by a lot: 60.9% to 33.5%. Unlike the other two, the DCCC is ignoring the district, which allowed a grassroots progressive, J.D. Scholten, to win the primary. The DCCC and associated PACs have spent $2,223,318 against Young but not a nickel against King. Scholten and King have raised around half a million dollars each but Scholten has $254,566 going into the final stretch to King's $117,554. The 538 Forecaster gives King an 89.1% chance at reelection, 8 in 9. This could be one of the cycle's biggest upsets. Scholten is running the kind of outside the box, grassroots campaign that isn't picked up by traditional forecasters. If you'd like to contribute to his campaign, please tap on the thermometer on the right that will take you to the ActBlue page for progressives who won their primaries and have been ignored or undercut by the DCCC anyway. This is an important page for Blue America because it includes some of our best candidates who are not just fighting right-wing Republicans but are also fending off the determined negativity of establishment corporate Democrats.