Paul Ryan Gives Up On 2 More Orange County Incumbents— Mimi And Dana Pushed Overboard

Maybe it’s too early to congratulation progressive Democrat Katie Porter and New Dem Harley Rouda, but yesterday’s L.A. Times reported that Mimi Walters (CA-45) and Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48) are no longer seen as viable candidates by Ryan’s shady, Adelson-funded SuperPAC. Both have been cut off and left on the side of the road to die, politically speaking. What the Times reported is that the omission of Rohrabacher and Walters from TV advertising by Ryan’s Congressional Leadership Fund “comes at a crucial inflection point in the midterm election when the two parties begin assessing their likely winners and losers.”

Walters and Rohrabacher join a dozen other Republican incumbents who have been left for dead like Barbara Comstock (VA), Mike Coffman (CO), Mike Bishop (MI), Kevin Yoder (KS), Rod Blum (IA)... This is especially odd and unexpected for Walters and Rohrabacher because just last week Ryan’s PAC spent $337,839 savaging Katie Porter and $324,105 smearing Harley Rouda.

Candidates in California, where more than half a dozen seats are being seriously contested, are at particular risk of being cut off financially because of the state’s exorbitant advertising costs. Money saved in the costly Los Angeles media market can be spread over several contests in other states that may be considered more winnable.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which collects multi-million-dollar checks from the Republican Party’s biggest donors, says it is spending nearly $12 million on cable television ads in four House contests in Southern California.

On Friday, the super PAC launched an additional $5-million ad campaign on the main broadcast stations in Los Angeles, the nation’s second most expensive media market after New York.

But the fund’s opening broadcast ads support only two of the four Republican candidates in the Southland’s hardest-fought races: Rep. Steve Knight of Palmdale and Young Kim of Fullerton, relegating its Rohrabacher and Walters ads to cable channels with fewer viewers.

The fund is free to add Walters and Rohrabacher to its broadcast lineup later. But millions of Californians have already received their ballots by mail, so immediate advertising is crucial to the fate of the two lawmakers, who are each facing their most serious challenges ever.

Rohrabacher has served 15 terms in Congress and Walters is bidding to win her third term.

Their Democratic challengers are already spending heavily on broadcast television ads. Walters has aired some broadcast commercials too, but Rohrabacher has not.

Nationwide, Democratic candidates have raised far more money than Republicans. As a result, GOP candidates are counting on outside groups like the Congressional Leadership Fund to come to the rescue.

But those groups must pay as much as quadruple the rates that television stations are required by law to offer to candidates, so the Democratic dollars are buying far more ad time. And those dollars are expanding the political battlefield, pressuring Republican strategists to make hard decisions on where to commit precious resources and which candidates to let go.

“While most people talk constantly about whether [Democratic enthusiasm] will translate into turnout, it’s definitely translating into dollars,” said Rob Stutzman, a veteran Republican strategist in Sacramento. “Dollars aren’t decisive always, but it’s always a big advantage.

“When you’re these national committees and you’ve got problems in the suburbs of Dallas, Kansas City, Chicago, Philadelphia, you’ve got to start making decisions on where you can most effectively spend,” Stutzman said.

For Knight, facing a formidable fundraiser in Democratic challenger Katie Hill, the new boost from the Congressional Leadership Fund came as a big relief. “We’re happy to have the help,” Knight strategist Matt Rexroad said.

Kim, the other Republican getting broadcast ads from the fund, is battling Democrat Gil Cisneros to succeed Rep. Ed Royce of Fullerton.

A Rohrabacher spokesman did not return a call for comment.

Dave Gilliard, a strategist for Walters, warned against reading too much into the latest machinations.

“There’s a lot of head fakes and games of chicken that occur between various outside spending groups in all these congressional districts,” he said. “Everybody’s trying to head-fake the other side to get them to spend money where they don’t need it.”

A spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee said the GOP’s congressional campaign arm is now broadcasting a spot supporting Walters and attacking her challenger, Katie Porter.

But he declined to say whether the committee would step up its advertising in either Orange County district if the Congressional Leadership Fund keeps Rohrabacher and Walters limited to cable.

The DCCC is doing something very similar. Remember, triage is bi-partisan-- and always favors conservatives (because of who exactly makes the decisions).They sent out a toxic memo Friday urging institutional donors and the suckers who still contribute to them instead of giving directly to candidates to concentrate on the corrupt conservatives the DCCC is pushing and stop giving money to the progressive candidates whose campaigns the DCCC is trying to destroy. They specifically asked donors to earmark money for New Dem candidates who are way ahead, while cutting back on all candidates associated with Bernie and with the policies he espouses and which are popular with Democratic voters. It’s ironic because the only way the anti-Red wave could possible turn into a Blue Wave would be for the DCCC to embrace ideas like Medicare-For-All, free state colleges, $15 minimum wage, Job Guarantee and other progressive ideas. The DCCC and their bag of Republican-lite candidates would rather run on bullshit talking points and conservative policies like PayGo.