JD Scholten To Cheri Bustos: "Keep Out Of My Race"

One of the things that always attracted Blue America to J.D. Scholten has been his independent spirit. I don't see him in Congress as just another Democrat-- not even as just another progressive Democrat. I see him as a guy standing up for working families regardless of whatever some shifting party priorities happen to be at the moment. And he was always a lot more than just a way to replace racist Republican Steve King. In fact, King lost his primary to far right state legislator Randy Feenstra who actually attacked King from the right-- someone who couldn't deliver for Trump! Scholten is someone with solid values who will make a crucial member of Congress, the way Pramila, AOC, Ted Lieu and Jamie Raskin do.

Yesterday, writing at The Intercept, Aída Chávez broke the story about how JD told Cheri Bustos, one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress, that he's running his campaign his way, not her way, regardless of her threats to go back on her word and not spend any DCCC money to help him. She had promised to make the IA-04 contest a top 5 race, which generally means at least $3 million in advertising plus a field operation, media help and a big fundraising boost with institutional Democratic Party donors and fat cats. But she insisted he allow the DCCC to take over the campaign. He told her to take a hike.

Yesterday J.D. told me that "It's clear that the DCCC has written off this district... again. But that hasn't changed the stakes. Rural Iowa families are still struggling to stay in their communities, make ends meet, and have the fullest opportunities. Our campaign is fueled by the hunger for change and won't bend to the whims and interests of those in power. We're in this for the long haul to deliver real relief to the communities of Iowa’s 4th congressional district."

Chávez wrote that "Scholten is especially frustrated by the DCCC’s approach to supporting moderate candidates who focus on traditional fundraising from big-dollar donors. 'The DCCC-type of campaign where you sit at home and fundraise all day doesn’t win respect, trust, or elections in these parts and wouldn’t be a good start to addressing the serious challenges facing rural America,' Scholten wrote... 'We have an authentic campaign that reflects who I am and my vision for this district,' Scholten said in a statement announcing the decision. 'We won’t be beholden to special interests or the DCCC; instead, we’re reaching out to folks across the political spectrum to earn votes.'"

Last week, Scholten reached out to Bustos to check in and see where the DCCC was at, and what she meant by her promise to go “all in” on his bid. During their phone call, Scholten laid out everything they had accomplished last cycle and made his case for why the race, despite King’s loss, could present a huge opportunity. “And it just got to the point where they’re trying to dangle carrots in front of us and I was like, you know what, I’m not having it,” he said. “They wanna be in all our meetings, they want us to use their consultants and stuff like that. And I don’t feel comfortable doing that at this time.”

After discussing with his team, Scholten said, he decided, “We don’t need them and what we want is to run the campaign similar to last time and that’s what’s going to win this race.” Completely refusing the DCCC’s help also means the campaign will have to provide its own field program and do its own mailing, which Red to Blue candidates are provided for free. “That’s part of it: We didn’t feel that what they do provides enough value for what we’re trying to do,” he said.

“JD Scholten is a strong candidate working to earn voters’ trust in rural Iowa,” Cole Leiter, a DCCC spokesperson, said in a statement. “We have built a big battlefield and every candidate is going to make their own decisions about how to run their race. We wish him well.”

That's how Rahm Emanuel, Bustos' mentor taught her to tell candidates to go to hell. Blue America and other progressives groups are working to help J.D. make up for some of the help he was expecting from the DCCC. Please consider clicking on the 2020 Blue America congressional thermometer on the right and contributing what you can to J.D.'s campaign. In 2018 the DCCC helped elect 2 utterly useless conservative Democrats in Iowa, Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer, each of whom quickly earned F ratings from ProgressivePunch-- very, very low F-ratings. Both can always be counted on to betray working families and to betray values like peace and join a dozen or two other Democrats from the conservative wing of the Democratic Party-- the Cheri Bustos wing. It's important for Congress that we replace truly terrible conservatives with truly great progressives, not with some in-between hybrids like Axne and Finkenauer, someone who working families can always count on to have their backs, not big donors' backs.

Though King’s defeat changed the dynamics of the race, Scholten’s campaign believes that the issues, namely Medicare for All and his vow to take on the corporate interests exploiting the second largest agricultural district in the country, will help flip the district come November. Scholten’s platform stands in stark contrast to the more moderate talking points and messaging the party establishment pushes on Democratic candidates running in red districts.

In 2018, for example, the DCCC commissioned a survey and analysis to help develop its messaging on health care. The messaging handouts, The Intercept reported at the time, “made clear where the party wants its candidates to stand when it comes to health care reform: preferably nowhere, but certainly not with single-payer advocates.” Party elites also end up influencing campaign strategy, Scholten noted. In a few weeks, his campaign will launch a tour that will go through all 375 towns in the district (while adhering to health and safety guidelines.)

“They would not agree that I should go to all 375 towns even though that’s how we earn votes,” he told The Intercept. “They want me to stay at home and just fundraise, be on the phone from the minute I wake up to the minute I go to bed.”

The Scholten campaign brought in a haul of nearly $620,000 in the second quarter of the fundraising year, making it the largest ever in a second quarter for any Democrat who has run for the seat. About 96 percent of the campaign’s contributions last quarter were under $200, thanks to its online small donor base.

“The way the DCCC’s system is, candidates like me, they don’t really care much about,” he said. “If I could self fund, they’d be all over me. I mean, the organizing and just the grassroots organization, we created something that’s so authentic and so organic that I don’t think they know how to deal with something like that. We need more working-class people in D.C., and their system is not made for that.”

Iowa Republican Voters Finally Kick Neo-Fascist Congressman Steve King To The Curb

Tuesday evening, J.D. Scholten was the first guest on Marianne's week long down-ballot progressive summit. (Tonight, Hector Oseguera will be on with Marianne; here's the schedule.) Tuesday, while J.D. and Marianne were chatting, Iowans were voting in their primaries. J.D. wasn't challenged so, no drama there. But his opponent, GOP neo-fascist and arch-racist-- largely disowned by the DC Republican establishment-- Steve King had 4 primary opponents. And he lost-- very badly.

King is a poor fundraiser and he was badly outraised by the GOP establishment favorite, state Senator Randy Feenstra. This is what each Republican spent clobbering each other (as of May 13):

• Randy Feenstra- $799,306
• Steve King- $325,135
• Bret Richards (self funder)- $219,655
• Jeremy Taylor- $140,818
• Steven Reeder- $77,595

Most Iowa Republicans-- not to mention DC Republicans-- have been embarrassed over and over again by King and are more than happy to see him go. For a long-term incumbent to get only 36% in a primary is nothing short of astounding-- if not historic. This is what you call a rejection:

Iowa is a swing state that national Democrats have largely given up on. Hillary, angry Bernie had toed her in the caucuses, pointedly and stupidly ignored the state and it went for Trump 798,923 (51.8%) to 650,790 (42.2%), after giving it's 6 electoral votes to Obama both times he ran. More recently, establishment Democrats-- mostly from the failed Clinton campaign-- have said they would not be contesting Iowa this year, a state Bernie's campaign felt very optimistic about bringing back into the Democratic fold. The state legislature is controlled by the Republicans-- 32 Republicans in the state Senate to 18 Democrats and 53 Republicans in the state House to 47 Dems. In 2018, Democrats won 5 more state House seats and two of the 3 congressional seats the GOP held. The 4th district would have been won-- by J.D.-- had the DCCC supported him, something their hatred of progressives had not allowed. J.D. came far closer to defeating King than they expected when they were telling institutional Democratic donors to not contribute to his campaign.

COVID-Kim

Iowa's governor is a clueless Trump Republican, Kim Reynolds, largely to blame for the catastrophic Iowa pandemic (6,344 confirmed cases per million, including 318 new cases yesterday and another 5 deaths, bringing the total to 561. In terms of cases per million, the worst hit counties are:

• Buena Vista- 42,150 cases per million
• Crawford- 30,940
• Louisa- 30,830
• Woodbury- 27,210
• Tama- 23,630
• Marshall- 22,300
• Wapello- 17,270
• Wright- 14,680

The 4 horribly-stricken counties in red are in King's district. Reynold's lackadaisical, ideological anti-scientific response to the coronavirus has seriously sickened thousands of Iowans needlessly. She's been on the top 10 list of the worst governors in America since the pandemic began. In way of comparison, the current cases per million in the worst hit (non-postage-stamp-sized) countries:

• Spain- 6,139 cases per million
• USA- 5,697
• Chile- 5,689
• Peru- 5,310
• Iceland- 5,295
• Ireland- 5,081
• Belgium- 5,065
• Belarus- 4,774
• U.K.- 4,124

I'm predicting that Iowans' general revulsion to Trump and to COVID-Reynolds' failure will result in a clean sweep for Democrats in November, all 4 House seats and the Joni Ernst Senate seat (even with a remarkably awful Democratic nominee handpicked by Schumer). The Dems are also in position to win back control of the state House if the anti-red wave in big enough.

King didn't get much sympathy from the media after his massive rejection by IA-04 voters. Politico: "Iowa Republicans drove Steve King out of office on a primary day marked by civil unrest... The nine-term congressman with a history of racist and anti-immigrant remarks was ousted after the GOP establishment offered his opponent both material and symbolic assistance... They starved him of cash, deprived him of committee assignments, and plied his challenger with outside support. But to avoid antagonizing his legion of loyal supporters, King’s detractors largely ignored his decades-long list of remarks condoning white supremacists and demeaning immigrants. Instead, they cast him as ineffective and powerless in Washington, unable to achieve results for his constituents... Nearly every corner of the Republican Party came together to aid Feenstra when tightening polls indicated he could nab the seat. Feenstra’s backers included the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, evangelical leaders, former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, Karl Rove, five current Republican congressmen and longtime Iowa political operatives."

Just because he's not Steve King doesn't make Feenstra what's needed in the 4th district. The tired right-wing elixirs and bathtub remedies he's peddling have never been enough to revitalize rural communities or enough to ensure farmers get a fair price and can stay on their land or enough for families to afford healthcare and save for retirement. It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say Feenstra is lacking in vision and utterly devoid of the ability to bring people together, the way Scholten does. Feenstra takes every dime he can from corporations and special interests-- the same corporate system that's taking away power, opportunities, and wealth from Iowa communities. He already represents the D.C. swamp and everything that spells out real (not Trumpian) reform. Remember, his big complaint about King was that he was ineffective perpetrating policies like building a border wall. And in the state legislature he voted for the heartbeat bill and has always opposed all abortion exceptions beyond saving a woman’s life.

Not having King in the race, makes it tougher for J.D. in a red district like IA-04. But his 2018 campaign made him well-known in every county and he is very well-regarded by Democrats, independents and even many non-ideological Republicans. There is already talk about die-hard King supporters boycotting Feenstra, who is generally as conservative as King, but without the overt fascism and racist carryings-on. Now J.D. is going to need all the financial support he can get since there is no doubt that the GOP establishment will fight like dogs to hold onto the seat and spend immense amounts of dark money. Please help J.D. with transparent money by clicking on the Blue America 2020 congressional thermometer on the right-- and giving what you can. After the vote, J.D. acknowledged to his supporters that "This election is not going to be easy. But it wasn’t easy in 2018, and we came within 3 points of defeating Steve King. This time, we know we can win. That’s because 'not Steve King' isn’t good enough. It’s not enough to not be blatantly racist. We need someone who will fight for our farmers to get a fair price and for our families to be able to afford quality healthcare, put food on the table, and save for retirement. To do that, we can’t keep propping up the corporate system that is sucking wealth and opportunities out of our district like Randy does.We don’t need another representative who is already bought and owned by corporate interests and the 1%."

This morning he told me that "King set a low bar for a Member of Congress. We must do better than not being blatantly racist. We’re in an extraordinary moment in history: the vibrancy of rural America is declining while we’re facing a global pandemic and nationwide protests calling for justice, accountability, and long overdue changes to address white supremacy and systemic racism. Our next representative must be able to meet these challenges and have a vision for the future of rural Iowa. We can’t accept the status quo of another corporate-backed career politician and allow the rich, powerful, and well-connected to continue bleeding rural America and vulnerable Americans dry."

Reminder: Electing J.D. Scholten Will Make Congress-- Not To Mention Iowa-- A Much More Productive Body

J.D. is running to represent a huge, mostly rural Iowa congressional district currently held by the most bigoted and far right Republican in the House, Steve King. But J.D.'s campaign isn't just about a referendum on King. He's far more concerned about offering voters a positive platform they can relate to. A few days ago, he wrote an OpEd for one of the local newspapers, the Carroll Times Herald.

Carroll County hasn't exactly been Democrat-friendly in recent years. Trump beat Hillary there 6,627 (63.5%) to 3,305 (31.7%). And in the 2018 Blue Wave, the county gave 62.9% of its gubernatorial vote to reactionary Republican Kim Reynolds.

Carroll County, though, was much closer for J.D. than for either Hillary or gubernatorial candidate Fred Hubbell who took just 35.3% in Carroll County. On that same day Hubbell, the gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket, won 3,186 votes, the county gave J.D. 4,075 votes (45.7%). It's counties like Carroll where J.D. impressed voters and came so close to winning and it's counties like Carroll he's in the process of winning over even more people. Strong, Clear Antitrust Policy Saves Lives isn't the kind of Republican-lite messaging the DCCC pushes on Democrats running in red districts. Ignoring their advice is what got J.D. so much closer than most of their red-district candidates. He held King down to 50.4% in an R+11 district. J.D. was one of the two or three top-performing Democrats in any district in the country even close to that kind of PVI. If he wins in November-- which is looking increasingly likely-- it's because he's talking to people in places like Carroll County, not to people in DC.

Right now, the failures of our healthcare system are on full display. Hospitals and their healthcare workers are overwhelmed and strapped for resources. Patients are receiving bills for COVID-19 testing and treatment that reach into the tens of thousands of dollars. The death count in America just topped 25,000-- and it could reach a quarter million.

One part of this equation is the concentration of the healthcare industry that has created fewer hospital beds, higher prices, lower quality of care and fewer resources for doctors, nurses and healthcare workers. This undoubtedly has compromised our ability to treat patients during this crisis.

Waves of consolidations and closures have plagued our nation’s hospitals with more than 680 mergers over the past decade alone.

Additionally, the reduction of about 600,000 hospital beds over the last 30 years has left our national public health infrastructure woefully unprepared for a global pandemic. This has affected urban and rural America alike: 72 percent of big metropolitan areas have highly concentrated hospital markets, and 13 percent are very highly-concentrated. And in 2019, rural America saw a record number of rural hospital closures, and another 430 rural hospitals are on the brink of closure if their financial situations do not improve. All in all, our hospital bed capacity is more than 10,000 beds short of the current projected need to respond to the coronavirus crisis.

As resources dwindle, research has proven that hospital mergers also contribute to rising health care costs and likely are a major factor in declining healthcare quality. During this coronavirus crisis, uninsured Americans could face up to $75,000 in hospital bills, an exorbitant fee and even more outrageous considering that hospitals are charging whatever they can get away with because they have the monopoly power to do so. This fact holds true with all consolidated industries: when a few players own a large percentage of the market share, there’s little incentive to reduce costs or improve the quality. It’s also easy to either buy out smaller players or simply push them out of business altogether.

During these recent years of hospital consolidation, a series of mergers and acquisitions has also increased the risk of supply shortages. In 2019 alone, hospital mergers and acquisitions were valued at $91.2 billion. These mergers pushed “just-in-time” supply chains that minimized inventories and downgraded manufacturing capacity.

We recently learned how devastating these anticompetitive mergers can be. The New York Times and ProPublica reported that public officials created a plan to address a glaring hole in our medical system’s preparedness: a ventilator shortage. The federal government signed a contract with Newport Medical Instruments, a small company in California to produce cheap, mobile ventilators that could accelerate production in the event of a pandemic. The work started and the company was on schedule to file for market approval, when Covidien, a multi-billion dollar company, bought Newport to prevent them from building a cheaper product that would undermine Covidien’s profits.

Suddenly, the ventilator program was dead. It took years for the government to line up another contract, and as you can see from this pandemic, it’s been too little, too late. Now, we have states trying to fill the gap by finding their own ventilator supply and sending supplemental ones to other states. These policies and practices are not sustainable for consumers and completely unfair to the hardworking doctors, nurses and other healthcare professionals who are working on the healthcare front lines. It’s a mess, and we must do better.

We need to reflect on these failures and have the foresight to make much-needed changes to our healthcare system. That starts with enforcing our antitrust laws in the healthcare industry and preventing the creation of these monopolies that can rake in profits at the expense of our health and well-being. Here are a couple of key steps we can take:

• Give the Federal Trade Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice more funding and resources to review and monitor mergers in the healthcare industry and challenge anti-competitive conduct.
• Adopt stricter scrutiny on anti-competitive conduct in horizontal mergers between hospitals as well as vertical mergers between hospitals, drug manufacturers, pharmacies, insurers and more.
• Repeal state COPA statutes that protect healthcare organizations from federal antitrust scrutiny and lead to healthcare mergers.

Will enforcing our antitrust laws solve everything? Will it magically give every American affordable, quality healthcare? Of course not. But it is a strong step in the right direction to lower hospital costs, improve patient care and ensure the resources needed to fight the next pandemic.

Everyone in Carroll County and across Iowa and the country is worrying about the pandemic. J.D. is telling his neighbors that it has shined a bright and deadly light on the failures of our healthcare system, especially in rural Iowa. In particular, concentration in the healthcare industry has resulted in hospital closures and fewer hospital beds, higher costs, lower quality care, and limited resources to treat patients. The result is that Iowa has the 49th latest "peak date" in the nation of when we project the highest number of single-day deaths. Please consider chipping in to help J.D. fund his campaign by clicking on the Blue America 2020 congressional thermometer on the right.

This afternoon, he told me that "Steve King has continued to praise President Trump's response to the coronavirus and downplay the reality and seriousness of this pandemic. In Iowa, we continue to see dramatic jumps in confirmed COVID-19 cases, stressing our already-fragile and under-resourced hospitals. Our leaders need to have the foresight to anticipate problems and work to avert them before there are catastrophic consequences. Unfortunately, King's leadership style is memes, proving just how urgently we need new representation."

Has Steve King Resigned Yet?

J.D. Scholten came very close to beating racist incumbent Steve King in 2018. With no help from the DCCC, congenitally distrustful of progressives, Scholten a former baseball player and first-time candidate, outraised King better than three to one and, in a district with a PVI of R+11 where Obama lost both times and where Trump clobbered Hillary 60.9% to 33.5%, held King to just 50.3%.

Since then, King was kicked off his committee for his unhinged racism and has been shunned by his own party. Not only is Scholten running for the seat again, this time King has 3 Republican primary opponents-- state Senator Randy Feenstra, former Irwin Mayor Bret Richards and former state Rep. Jeremy Taylor-- with at least two others talking about jumping in. Yesterday GOP hard-ass Liz Cheney, a member of McCarthy's leadership team, publicly told him to resign.

The predictable latest storm was over a comment he made on the campaign trail. While raging against women's Choice, King started down a bizarre path-- even for an anti-Choice lunatic like him. Speaking at the Westside Conservative Club King asked his right-wing audience. "What if we went back through all the family trees and just pulled out anyone who was a product of rape or incest? Would there be any population of the world left if we did that? Considering all the wars and all the rapes and pillages that happened throughout all these different nations, I know that I can’t say that I was not a part of a product of that." Yeah, especially generations of incest.

"Again, Steve King is disgracing Iowa and putting his selfish, hateful ideology before the needs of the people of Iowa's 4th district. This time, he's excusing violence. But countless times before, he has spewed racist statements and promoted white nationalism that ultimately led to him getting stripped of his committee assignments. Our campaign is different. We're proud to bring all people together, represent real Iowan values, and fight for positive change for Iowa."

If you'd like to help J.D. replace King in Congress... well, that's precisely what that 2020 Act Blue Blue America congressional thermometer above is for.

J.D. Scholten Will Beat Steve King In Iowa This Time Around

Yesterday our old pal, former baseball player JD Scholten launched the second part of his campaign to replace Iowa neo-fascist and white nationalist Steve King with a stunning video narrated by Kevin Costner (Field of Dreams). Last cycle-- with zero help from the DCCC, of course-- JD shocked the political punditry by nearly beating King in the gigantic rural Iowa district that sits in the northwest and central part of the state, stretching from Sioux City to Ames and New Hampton in Chickasaw County in the eastern part of Iowa-- 38 counties. JD won the 3 most populous of those counties-- Story, Woodbury and Cerro Gordo, but in the end King squeaked by 157,676 (50.4%) to 147,246 (47.0%). That's quite an achievement in a district with an R+11 PVI and where Obama lost both times and where Trump beat Hillary 60.9% to 33.5%. It's worth mentioning that on caucus day in 2016, Bernie cleaned up in IA-04,not just beating Hillary, but in many counties beating Trump as well:

• Woodbury Co.

Bernie- 1,920
Trump- 1,600

• Story Co.

Bernie- 2,737
Trump- 1,152

• Cerro Gordo Co.

Bernie- 1,108
Trump- 597

• Boone Co.

Bernie- 715
Trump- 412

• Winnebago Co.

Bernie- 230
Trump- 115

• Dickson Co.

Bernie- 358
Trump- 342

• Clay Co.

Bernie- 303
Trump- 292

• Butler Co.

Bernie- 350
Trump- 332

• Grundy Co.

Bernie- 206
Trump- 198

• Shelby Co.

Bernie- 232
Trump- 203

JD performed 24 points better against King in the district than Hillarydid against Trump in 2016. Pretty impressive when you consider that the DCCC and Pelosi were hostile to his candidacy. Too progressive for such a red district-- despite how much better Bernie did than Hillary in the district. They have their heads up their asses. And whether they help him this time or work to sabotage him, you can help J.D. replace racist asshole Steve King this time around by clicking on the Blue America 2020 thermometer on the left and contributing what you can.

This time, King has 3 primary opponents-- state Senator Randy Feenstra, former Irwin Mayor Bret Richards and former state Rep. Jeremy Taylor-- and two more waiting in the wings. The NRCC, which would prefer to see King lose, says they won't get involved in the primary, showing again that they're more Democratic than Cheri Bustos' wreckage of a DCCC. Scholten's best chance to win the seat in this blood red district is if King is the GOP candidate again. He's toxic and too extreme for Iowans anymore and he was kicked off the agriculture committee, so isn't even in a position to help his constituents at a time when Trump's trade war is devastating the local economy.

"Too many Iowan families feel like they’re getting kicked in the dirt, suffering from an economy and a government that just doesn’t have their interests at heart," he wrote in his announcement statement. "We need a system that works for all people-- not just special interests and those who are lucky enough to be at the top. That’s exactly why we’re in this fight: to fix our healthcare system, fight for an economy for all, and secure our democracy."

Iowa Republicans Will Have To Chose Between 2 Right-Wing Nuts, One Obsessed With Homosexuality And One Obsessed With Racism

Republican homophobic maniac Randy Feenstra may stop thinking about sex with men long enough to run against Steve King

Anthony Brindisi was a worthless New York state senator, beloved by the NRA and never shy about abandoning his own party when they tried passing progressive legislation and crossing the aisle to vote with the GOP. Perfect for the DCCC, right? Absolutely. This year he ran in a little-noted race in upstate New York against a pathetic right-wing, Trump-enthused backbencher, Claudia Tenney. It was a pure lesser of two evils race in a district Obama won twice but where Trump beat Hillary 54.8% to 39.3%. NY-22 is a north-south district that stretches from Lake Ontario through Rome, Utica, Oneida and Cortland to Binghampton and the border with northeast Pennsylvania above Scranton. There are 8 counties and Brindisi won 3 of them, including the only two-- Oneida and Broome-- with sizable populations. This is how close it was:

Brindisi spent $4,528,959 and Tenney spent $3,143,743 but those figures were smaller than the outside spending. The DCCC spent $2,191,416, Pelosi's SuperPAC spent $2,503,046 and DCCC satellite groups spent over a million more-- almost $6 million to elect a worthless Blue Dog who will absolutely be voting with the GOP over and over and over.

None of this really has anything at all to do with Iowa neo-Nazi Steve King, the topic. I just wanted to draw a contrast between how DCCC & Friends spent millions on a dirty NRA-loving Blue Dog and was happy to let Steve King off scott free.

Last week I had a great dinner with King's opponent, JD Scholten, who may run for the Iowa 4th district seat again in 2020 or may-- as I hope-- run for the U.S. Senate seat that Joni Ernst is occupying. JD, a first-time candidate and a strong grassroots progressive, raised an astonishing $3,253,487. Although a few grassroots groups like Blue America, People for the American Way, Ultraviolet, and MoveOn spent some money on JD's behalf, Pelosi's PAC and the DCCC adamantly refused to spend a nickel on the race. Had they, JD would be in Congress and King would be living in Hungary or some other friendly fascist-leaning state. That wouldn't serve the interests of the DCCC, where they hate independent-minded progressives like Scholten and prefer conservatives like Brindisi. And in this case, they like using King as a fundraising bogeyman and have no real interest in seeing him leave Congress, let alone America.

JD held King to a meager 50.3% win. Consider that in 2016, King took 61.2% of the vote, in 2014 he took 61.6% and the only time a Democrat did even close to as well as JD did was when the DCCC and Pelosi's SuperPAC spent almost $1 million to push the former governor's wife Christie Vilsack, who held King down to 53.0%.

On Wednesday, Iowa's Republican governor, Kim Reynolds, announced she will not come to King's aid in what promises to be a lively Republican primary for his seat. In 2018 she had chosen him as a co-chair of her reelection bid.

"The last election was a wake-up call for it to be that close," Reynolds said during an interview in her formal office at the Iowa Statehouse, "That indicates that it does open the door for other individuals to take a look at that."

King won re-election in 2018. But despite a nearly 70,000 registered voter advantage that Republicans have over Democrats in the district, King only beat his Democratic challenger, former professional baseball player J.D. Scholten, by three points.

"I will stay out of the primary," the governor said, "I'm not going to weigh in."

The revelation by Reynolds follows critical comments she made about King following the November election when she said, "I think that Steve King needs to make a decision whether he wants to represent the values of the 4th District or he needs to find something else to do."

King has faced criticism in the past for endorsing a white supremacist mayoral candidate in Toronto last year and comments about immigrants.

Tuesday morning, three-term State Senator Randy Feenstra, a Hull Republican, announced that he would run for King's seat in 2020.

"The President needs effective conservative leaders in Congress who will not only support his agenda, but actually get things done,” Feenstra said in a statement. “Today, Iowa’s 4th District doesn’t have a voice in Washington, because our current representative’s caustic nature has left us without a seat at the table. We don’t need any more sideshows or distractions, we need to start winning for Iowa’s families,” the statement also said.

King's son, Jeff, who serves as the Congressman's campaign manager, responded, "Today, misguided political opportunism, fueled by establishment puppeteers, has revealed that Mr. Feenstra is easily swayed by the lies of the Left. Today’s announcement by Feenstra is the third attempt by the establishment in as many primary cycles to take the 4th District out of the hands of grassroots Republicans. Further, it’s an obvious attempt to undermine an effective and leading Congressional ally of the President’s whom Trump frequently refers to as ‘the world’s most conservative human being.’ From his statements, it appears that Mr. Feenstra offers Republican voters nothing but warmed over talking points from liberal blogs and failed Democratic candidates.”

In an interview with the NY Times yesterday, King was embarrassing Iowa again by asking "White nationalist, white supremacist, Western civilization-- how did that language become offensive?"

By the way, Feenstra, 49, serves as assistant majority leader in the Iowa state Senate. He's a mentally disturbed evangelical who graduated from an evangelical high school and got his bachelor's degree from Dordt College. He isn't an actual Nazi like King but he's a 100% Trumpist and an extreme right radical and hysterical homophobe who seems so hung up on men sleeping with each other (he claims to oppose it) that rumors have been whispered that he sleeps with boys on the down low.

Are There Any Arch-Villains Who Could Lose Their House Seats Next Week?

Yes, "House," so we won't be talking about Ted Cruz, the only Senate arch-villain up for reelection this cycle. Every House seat is up for reelection and a case could be made that's they're all arch-villains since they all enable Trump. Do they? Well, yes... but some enable Trump more than others. FiveThirtyEight has Trump adhesion scores and there are only 5 "perfect" scores. Two of the perps, Troy Balderson (OH-12) and Michael Cloud (TX-27) just got into Congress and their scores aren't based on enough roll calls yet to be relevant; two others-- Ryan Zinke (MT) is now in the cabinet and Jason Chaffetz works for GOP-TV-- don't count either. And that leaves just one pure suck-up: Steve Scalise (LA-01), terrible but not especially an arch-villain as a garden variety far right pile of crap.

Next come the 38 Republicans who voted contrary to Trumpanzee just once-- the bill imposing sanctions on Trump amigos Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un. These are all bad guys-- really bad guys-- but are any worth going back in a time machine to strange them in their cribs? Debatable. Locals might feel the Stephen Knight (CA-25) is that bad and it would be hard to argue against them. He's been worse than puke for his whole career, but he was actually worse in the state legislature-- not in terms of voting obviously-- but he's pretty quiet and a total backbencher who just votes terribly. The good news is that he's going to probably lose his seat to conservative Democrat Katie Hill (New Dem). Same for closet case David Young (IA-03) in Des Moines, who is likely to lose to a nothing Democrat, Cindy Axne. Mimi Walters (CA-45) is also in the category and is likely to lose to progressive Katie Porter. David Valadao (CA-21) might lose to T.J. Cox if the wave is big enough and people stick with the DCCC lesser of two evils strategy. Mike Bost (IL-13) could lose to awful Blue Dog Brendan Kelly, I guess. And Michael McCaul (TX-10) might be beaten by Mike Siegel if everything goes right next week. But are there real arch-villains in the truest sense of the term in this 98.9% category? YES!

First the good news-- Team Blue could take one out: Chris Collins (NY-27), the first member of Congress to have endorsed Trump, someone so corrupt that he was arrest by the FBI recently, indicted on a myriad of charges based around insider trading and is currently out on bail... and drooping in the polls so badly that his progressive opponent, Nate McMurray has just pulled ahead of him:

That leaves three more arch-villains, two of whom do not have serious opponents, murderer and gay-hating closet case Patrick McHenry (NC-10) and Republican Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (CA-23) and one that maybe, maybe, maybe could be defeated-- the notorious Devin Nunes. It's a very red district and his conservative opponent, Andrew Janz is very weak, but he has raised $8,252,310 (much of it stolen by consultants and now he barely has enough to compete with Nunes-- just $854,154 unhand to Nunes' $4,952,478. BUT... if the wave is strong enough and everything goes right for Janz on election day, there's a teensy weensy chance. 538 rates Janz's shit at 1 in 20 (5.1%), so... don't bet the farm on this one.

Here are the states of the race-- according to 538. so not terribly accurate-- for the rest of the 100% arch-villains left in Congress:

• Pete Sessions (TX-32)- 7 in 10 election shot (68.7%)
• Liz Cheney (WY)- better than 99 in 100 for reelection (99.9%)
• Duncan Hunter (CA-50)- badly called 6 in 7 shot at reelection (85.3%); this more like 50-50.
• Virginia Foxx (NC-05)- 19 in 20 reelection chances (95.7%)
• Doug Lamborn (CO-05)- 49 in 50 chance at reelection (97.8%)
• Greg Gianforte (MT)- 5 in 7 (72.1%); this is also a 50-50 race
• STEVE KING (IA-04)- (see below-- and the video up top)
• Scott DesJarlais (TN-04)- better than 99 in 100 (99.3%)
• Mark Meadows (NC-11)- better than 99 in 100 (99.7%)
• Dave Brat (VA-07)- toss-up (terrible Democrat though, Abigail Spanberger, not worth praying for)
• Jim Jordan (OH-04)- 19 in 20 for reelection (95.8%)
• Mo Brooks (AL-05)- 99 of 100 (99.9%)
• Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48)- just 3 in 8 shot of winning (35.8%)
• Louie Gohmert (TX-01)- 99 in 100 (99.9%)
• Matt Gaetz (FL-01)- 99 in 100 (99.9%)

After Gaetz we're in Blue Dog territory, with Trump-loving faux-Democrats Henry Cuellar (TX-28), Conor Lamb (PA-18), Collin Peterson (MN-07), Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-09), Josh Gottheimer (NJ-05), Tom Halleran (AZ-01), Stephanie Murphy (FL-07), Jim Costa (CA-16), Sanford Bishop (GA-02), Jacky Rosen (NV-03), Charlie Crist (FL-13), Dan Lipinski (IL-03), Brad Schneider (IL-10), Jim Cooper (TN-05) and Ami Bera (CA-07). The best of all worlds would see them all lose with the Democrats still taking enough red districts to win; but that's not going to happen.

Now, in terms of Steve King... this will be one of the big wins of the evening if everything works out. King is a real life genuine Nazi and the Democrat running against him-- with no help from the DCCC, of course-- is J.D. Scholten, a top notch progressive. Because the DCCC opposes Scholten, journalists and pundits give him the short end of the stick. But this is a winnable seat-- very tough, but winnable. Here's the inaccurate 538 forecast:

As of October 17, King had raised $736,629 and had $176,312 on hand. Scholten had raised $1,684,427 with $316,359 on hand. On Saturday, when the Washington Post questioned him after the slaughter of Jews in Pittsburgh about all his visits to Nazi rallies in Europe, he defended the revitalized Nazi Party in Austria (the Freedom Party), founded by a former Nazi SS officer. "If they were in America pushing the platform that they push, they would be Republicans." That's correct, although other Republicans were uncomfortable with his statement. A staffer from the office of another Iowa member of Congress told me, on condition of anonymity that "most Republicans in Congress" hope the Democrat wins [and that] Steve [King] moves to Austria full time and gets himself the SS uniform he has always craved." King is a notorious Jew-hater but claims the proof he doesn't hate Jews is that he knows some personally and that he supports Israel.




UPDATE:

Congressman Carlos Curbelo is a conservative Florida Republican. He told MSNBC this morning that he would never vote for Iowa's neo-Nazi member of Congress, his colleague Steve King. "His comments and his actions," said Curbelo, "are disgusting. And look, I know nothing about his opponent, but I will tell you this: I would never cast a ballot for someone like Steve King." So does that mean he won't be voting for Ron DeSantis in Florida's gubernatorial race?

We Either Get Rid Of Iowa Fascist Steve King Now-- Or Acclimate Ourselves To Having Him Around Forever

Iowa is a swing state-- and it's about to swing way back in the other direction. Governor Kim Reynolds (R) has a one in six chance of being reelected. Right now, Iowa sends one Democrat and 3 Republicans to Congress. At worst, it appears that in 2019 Iowa will have 3 Democrats and one Republican in Congress. But at best... 4 Democrats and no Republicans. But that's going to take some work. First the good news: that 4th district pits far right bigot and neo-fascist Steve King against former baseball player, progressive Democrat J.D. Scholten.

Now the bad news: Iowa has a statewide PVI of R+3 and Trump's victory over Hillary in the state was 51.15% to 41.74%. But the 4th district, where Scholten is facing off against King, has a PVI of R+11. And in that district, Trump beat Hillary 60.9% to 33.5%. That's a tough district for a Democrat. In 2008 and 2012 Obama won statewide. But in 2008 McCain won IA-04 and in 2012 Romney took the district.

There are other Republicans who vote more frequently with Trump than King does-- but when King doesn't vote with Reump, it's because he's further right than Trump is! Yeah, this is a tough one. And... to put it mildly, the DCCC isn't helping. Quite the contrary of course. The DCCC hates progressives and they hate candidates from the working class. Scholten is both. The most recent poll of the state that includes House districts shows GOP incumbents David Young (IA-03) with a 47-31% lead over mediocre DCCC recruit Cindy Axne. She's just a garden variety Democrat who will never make any waves and will always do what the leadership tells her to do-- the kind of seat occupier the DCCC loves. And so far they've spent a gargantuan $1,733,633 against Young on her behalf (not counting the $906,085 that Pelosi's House Majority PAC has also spent against Young). So... over $2.6 million.

But in IA-04, King's district-- King is only supported by 41% of the likely voters-- so far fewer than Young's 47%. And, like Axne, Scholten had the support of 31% of likely voters in that poll. So it looks like Scholten has a better chance, right? Well, maybe... but... Scholten is a working class progressive and the DCCC don't want people like that busting into their elite little caucus. So how much have they spent on his race? ZERO, of course. Both Axne and Scholten have seriously out-raised their Republican opponents. Axne brought in $3,598,649 to Young's $2,526,493 and she has $1,239,498 left to spend compared to Young's $747,223. Scholten raised $1,434,486 to King's $671,818 and Scholten has $621,708 left to spend compared to King's $160,561. Axne has run a media race. Scholten has run the ultimate grassroots race and has been to every nook and cranny of the district and touched as many people as conceivable. One of the pastors on the Vote Common Good "Flip Congress" tour told me that Scholten was the best candidate they'd worked with and he was so good they set up an impromptu rally in another town the day after they did the scheduled event with him in Sioux City.

And speaking of Sioux City, the daily newspaper there-- which has endorsed King every single time King has run, did something no one ever expected to see: they just endorsed J.D. on Friday! Today, the editors wrote, The Journal "endorses the candidacy of Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten over incumbent Republican Steve King in the race for the U.S. House seat in Iowa's 4th District. Those were not easy words for us to write," they admitted.

In prior endorsements of King, an eight-term representative, we laid out what we respect and admire about our congressman. He is an honest, principled family man who we acknowledge reflects in his votes the positions of many, if not most 4th District constituents.

In spite of the criticisms we also shared in those endorsements, we believed King's strengths were enough to make him a better choice for this district than the Democratic challengers he faced in past elections.

In Scholten, however, King runs against an opponent with many strengths of his own.

Bright, articulate, personable, possessed of deep roots in this district, informed about issues important to the 4th like agriculture, and armed with a willingness to consider all sides of complex issues such as illegal immigration and work across the aisle to identify solutions to problems, Scholten offers appeal for not only Democrats, but independents and Republicans, as well, we believe.

With a candidate of Scholten's caliber on the ballot, we decided we wouldn't overlook, again, the concerns we have shared about King in the past in making an endorsement in this race this year.

We say nothing about King today we haven't said before. Time and again in this space, we have criticized him for what we view as inflammatory or questionable comments and expressed concern about the impact of those comments on our district. Each time King immerses himself in controversy, he holds up this district to ridicule and marginalizes himself within the legislative body he serves, neither of which provides benefit to Iowans who live and work here.

For example, King earlier this month put himself-- and, by extension, the rest of the district-- in an unflattering spotlight with a tweet in support of a candidate for mayor of Toronto described in published reports as a "white nationalist" or "white supremacist." That wasn't the first time King was tied, by his words or actions, to such intolerant ugliness.

In addition, we don't view King as someone who is at all interested in reaching across the aisle to find common ground on immensely complex issues, like illegal immigration. (We want border security too, for example, but we do not believe it is either possible or practical to identify, locate and arrest or deport every individual who entered this country illegally, many of whom hold jobs important to our domestic economy.) Our point is this: We believe compromise achieved by listening and talking to one another is the only way we as a nation will effectively navigate the multiple challenges of illegal immigration.

As we have said before, we would prefer King spend less time trying to "save" Western civilization and making a national name for himself as a conservative leader trying to move the nation to the political right. We would rather he commit to becoming, say, a more influential congressional leader in agriculture.

Finally, we have used this space on multiple occasions to criticize King for not debating opponents and not hosting more public town halls, both of which speak to constituent accountability, but we have seen little to no inclination on his part during this campaign to change.

We aren't suggesting Scholten is a perfect candidate with whom we have no disagreements, but we believe the job of U.S. representative is more than casting votes. As a congressman, we believe Scholten would choose his words carefully, create no national controversies, bring no embarrassment to the district, seek to unite and not divide, focus his time and energy almost exclusively on issues directly impacting the lives and livelihoods of constituents, and hold regular town halls with the public. He represents changes we believe speak to the best interests of this congressional district as a whole.

King is the favorite and ahead in polls. If he wins re-election, we hope he considers the words we have written today.

If underdog Scholten springs an upset, we hope he remembers this remains largely a conservative, Republican district and we urge him to take accordingly moderate positions on issues of the day. Bottom line: We are ready and willing to give him the opportunity to show all of us in the 4th what he can do.

You won't be surprised to read that Charles Pierce took a somewhat different tone towards King, reminding Esquire readers that "the American Republic requires his defeat. Come on, Iowa." Pierce likes what J.D. has to offer the voters, but pointed out that "even if he weren't qualified, even if he were a snaggle-toothed sub-literate employed in a fish house, he would deserve any thinking person's support because J. D. Scholten is not Steve King." What's wrong with a fish house? Pierce just doesn't like fascists. He'd better keep away from Trump rallies. Oh, and by the way, since the DCCC is refusing to put a nickel towards ridding the country of King-- he's good for their fundraising efforts-- please consider helping J.D. with his Get Out The Vote ground game by clicking on the ActBlue thermometer on the right. This is winnable-- not easy-- but possible. Better to be on that winning team than on the DCCC team of mediocrities and GOP-lite candidates.

Feel Like Punching Out The DCCC? Help J.D. Scholten Defeat Neo-Fascist Steve King

A little over a week ago the Vote Common Good bus tour made an impromptu stop, their only unscheduled rally of their barnstorming Flip Congress tour so far. They had just spent Thursday in Sioux City with J.D. Scholten and decided to drive their bus about 40 miles north to Sioux Center, a Dutch-American town, home of Dordt College and 5 Christian Reformed churches, 4 Reformed Church in America churches, a United Reformed church and a Netherlands Reformed Church. There's also an Evangelical Free Church, a Lutheran Congregations in Mission for Christ church and an ELCA church. Sioux County is perfect for Vote Common Good. Bernie won the caucus there and Trump came in... 4th, after Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson. It's a red county... but people were uncomfortable with Trump from day one. In the general election, he beat Hillary 14,761 (82.1%) to 2,289 (12.7%). This is the kind of rural Iowa county that keeps voting to send racist, neo-fascist extremist Steve King back to Congress over and over.

Doug Pagitt, a Minneapolis-based pastor and evangelical Christian reasoned with the folks that that "If you know in your hearts what the good is, we ask that you connect that to your head, and make that statement on your ballot on November 6th. Because the world needs people to tell their truth. And we’re not trying to shut anybody down, we’re just trying to turn up on the volume of the people that want to say something."

Mark DeLap covered the event for the Sioux Center News: 'Movement' Makes Whistle Stop. "The movement," he wrote, "has been likened to a barnstorming evangelical revival of both celebrities and common people who believe that America is in trouble."

“It’s a hootenanny. We sing, we invoke people into their voting patterns and invoke them into their faith to live it out into the world,” said Doug Pagitt, Voting Common Good executive director and one of the organizational founders.

Pagitt, who is the founding pastor of Solomon’s Porch, a holistic missional Christian community in Minneapolis, said that most of the people traveling with the group are Christians.

“Vote Common Good is an effort to travel the country to ask religiously-minded voters to consider the common good when they vote on Nov. 6,” Pagitt said. “We think that if a person went to church on Nov. 4 and their pastor took them through the Sermon on the Mount that on Nov. 6 when they turn to vote, they probably wouldn’t be able to vote for the current Republican candidates.

“We think that flipping this Congress is something that will happen if people care about their faith,” he said.

Pagitt also said that the feeling of the group is that the current presidency “needs the restraint of a Congress that will stand up to it.”

The tour has many celebrities, speakers, musicians and advocates for change who are traveling to cities all over the nation to speak out for change.

J.D. Scholten, the Democratic nominee for Iowa’s 4th District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, opposing Republican incumbent Steve King, was in attendance and had a chance to address the crowd of about 50 people packed into the back room of The Fruited Plain Cafe in downtown Sioux Center.

Scholten spoke about a friend who is a Native American activist who offered his advice when Scholten’s campaign first began.

“He said, ‘J.D. if you want change, you’re going to have to get uncomfortable. And then once you get uncomfortable, you are going to have to get everyone else uncomfortable,’” Scholten said. “For the last 15 months, I’ve been uncomfortable. Now, it’s your turn, if you want change, to get uncomfortable from now until Nov. 6.”

Frank Schaeffer was among the speakers who voiced an opinion for the cause. He is a New York Times best-selling author of more than a dozen books who has appeared on The Today Show and Oprah.

“We have elected a prevaricating, lunatic, con artist, mobster who sits in our White House,” Schaeffer said. “My sense in this election is, is that this is a last-ditch effort and this is not a hyperbole. So, when I meet a candidate like J.D. I only have one message for him, and it’s not a political message. When it comes to putting a roadblock in the way of Trump and his administration, you think the first two years were bad, imagine if he has a majority in both houses of Congress and now a Supreme Court majority, there is no one to stop this man.

“Our last chance is that J.D. gets elected and that we flip the House. And I have a message for you JD and I’m being serious. Save us.”

Musical guests onstage included “Reverend” Vince Anderson who calls his music “Dirty Gospel” and has played with “The Tonight Show” band, The Roots. Featured artist from his Brooklyn-based band, The Love Choir, was former Baltimore Ravens cheerleader and singer Meah Pace who also has appeared with The Roots and Sharon Jones & The Dap Kings.

Schaeffer concluded the program with some impassioned thoughts.

“This isn’t about politics,” he said. “It’s about the national character. Go back and vote pro-life for the rest of your life. Vote for Republicans on a straight ticket next time. But this is a national emergency. It’s not Republicans and Democrats. It is a con artist, liar, philanderer, low life, who has weaseled his way with the bamboozled evangelical white vote into the White House. It behooves anyone who says they follow Jesus to try to repair the damage.”

As you probably know, Blue America has endorsed J.D. Scholten. Why?  Because he's a progressive fighter for working families-- basically the same reason why the DCCC has not endorsed him and is-- at best-- ignoring his race. You can contribute to J.D.'s Get-Out-The-Vote efforts by tapping on the thermometer on the right. You may be wondering if he has a real shot at winning in this R+11 district that went for Trump over Hillary 60.9% to 33.5% and where even Obama only got 48.5%. Our go-to source for Iowa politics, Bleeding Heartland says yes... if. They pointed out that "a Democrat won a special election in a Pennsylvania U.S. House district with a partisan voting index of R+11-- the same as IA-04." Can J.D. pull off the same stunt? It would be a huge upset-- one of the biggest-- and most satisfying-- upsets of 2018. Bleeding Heartland outlined five things that have to happen for J.D. to win. They're actually all reasonable and do-able. In fact, grassroots contributions have given J.D. a $1,434,486 to $671,818 cash advantage over King!

1. About 140,000 to 150,000 votes in November.

In the last midterm election, King defeated Jim Mowrer by 169,834 votes to 105,504. (Iowa still had five Congressional districts in 2010, so fewer votes were cast in King’s race.)

Assuming some 280,000 to 300,000 people cast ballots in IA-04 this year, Scholten will need support from approximately 35,000 to 45,000 Iowans who did not vote for Mowrer.

Incidentally, 14,588 Iowans voted for Scholten in the primary, according to unofficial results. Total Democratic turnout in IA-04 this month was 28,487.

2. Record-breaking Democratic turnout.

The latest voter registration totals indicate that the 39 counties in IA-04 contain 116,129 active registered Democrats, 188,334 Republicans, and 174,599 no-party voters. The total number for each party, including “inactive” registered voters, is 125,298 Democrats, 197,578 Republicans, and 191,491 no-party voters. (Those numbers will change a little due to people changing their registration on June 5 to vote in the primary.)

Obviously, there aren’t enough registered Democrats in the district for Scholten to win just by maximizing his own party’s turnout. Nevertheless, strong GOTV would make a big difference.

About 56.5 percent of registered Iowa Democrats cast ballots in the 2010 general election. About 56.7 percent did so in 2014.

Assuming roughly the same turnout level, Scholten can count on a little more than 70,000 Democrats in IA-04 participating in this year’s election. That would probably work out to only about a quarter of the total ballots cast.

Increasing base Democratic turnout to 65 percent would net Scholten an extra 10,000 votes. That would be very high for a non-presidential year. Some 62.2 percent of registered Iowa Democrats cast ballots in 2006, which was a wave year for the party.

Since the June 5 primary saw record levels of Democratic participation, it’s not farfetched to expect unusually strong engagement this fall in reaction to an unpopular Republican president and the failures of GOP governance in Iowa.

3. A large number of Republicans defecting from King.

About 68.2 percent of registered Iowa Republicans voted in the last midterm election, and 69.0 percent did in the 2010 GOP landslide. In 2006–a wave year for Democrats–GOP turnout was only slightly lower: 64.9 percent.

Assuming between 65 percent and 70 percent of registered Republicans vote this fall, between 128,000 and 138,000 Republicans in the IA-04 counties will cast ballots. If they all support King, that would give him almost enough to win.

A non-trivial number of Republicans are fed up with King, though. State Senator Rick Bertrand won about 35 percent (15,872 votes) in his 2016 GOP primary challenge, even though practically the whole state GOP establishment backed King. Cyndi Hanson won about 25 percent (9,368 votes) in this year’s IA-04 primary–a high number considering she raised almost no money and had no direct mail or paid media program.

Ideally, Scholten would win crossover votes from disaffected Republicans. But some may not have the stomach to vote for a Democrat. Every Republican who leaves that ballot line empty or votes for a third-party candidate (Charles Aldrich has filed as a Libertarian here) is half as good as a Republican who marks a ballot for Scholten.

I’m curious to see how often Governor Kim Reynolds campaigns alongside King. She endorsed him before the 2016 primary and welcomed him as one of her campaign co-chairs last November. During King’s toughest re-election race against Christie Vilsack in 2012, Governor Terry Branstad cut a radio ad for the GOP incumbent. But Branstad wasn’t on the ballot that year. Reynolds has a tough race on her hands against Fred Hubbell.

Picking numbers out of the air, let’s say 10 percent of GOP voters support Scholten in November and another 15 percent decline to vote for King. That scenario still leaves Scholten below 100,000 total votes.

4. A solid majority among independents.

Turnout drops much more sharply among no-party voters in non-presidential years than it does among partisans. Only about 35.6 percent of independents cast ballots in the 2006 general election, 36.5 percent did in 2010, and 37.8 percent did in 2014.

Assuming turnout between 35 and 40 percent this year, roughly 67,000 to 76,000 voters affiliated with neither Democrats nor Republicans will vote in the IA-04 counties. Scholten needs a commanding margin–say, 65 to 70 percent of them–to get him a majority of all votes cast.

5. Resources to campaign district-wide.

Money alone will never win this district for Democrats. Vilsack raised and spent more than $3 million in her 2012 race against King, and Mowrer raised and spent more than $2 million two years later.

At the same time, name recognition is essential for a challenger facing an eight-term incumbent, even a toxic one. IA-04 covers a huge area: 39 counties, spread over five media markets.