Friday, April 20, 2018

What will The Senate Look Like In January 2019? The Map Predicts A Huge GOP Win-- But Voters Have Other Ideas


Schumer has chosen a handful of especially bad recruits as candidates for November. Keep in mind the DSCC did not recruit Beto O'Rourke and until very recently when they started seeing his eye-popping contributions and his even more eye-popping polling, they completely ignored him. Beto should hope Schumer keeps away; his race to replace Cruz is too close to call now. Cruz would like nothing more than to be able to equate Beto with Schumer.

Schumer's recruits-- Phil Bredensen in Tennessee, Jacky Rosen in Nevada and Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona are all very conservative. Bredensen is probably the only Democrat who could win in Tennessee (a state where he is universally known and liked-- and with an R+14 PVI). But Nevada didn't need a wretched conservative like Rosen. Hillary beat Trump there and the statewide PVI is D+1. And Arizona? The PVI is R+5. And Sinema is so far to the right that there's a danger the Democratic base could sit out the midterm rather than vote for her. She's unquestionably Schumer's worse recruit-- ever.

That said, the Republicans have their own Arizona problem. The GOP wants the race to come down to a race between mainstream conservative Martha McSally, who independent voters like, and far right Blue Dog Sinema, who many Democrats hate. But the Republicans might not get what they want. A new poll from the local ABC affiliate asked GOP voters who they prefer in the August primary and Republican strategists are ready to slit their wrists, McSally doesn't appear to be winning-- even though she's up against two far right lunatics who are splitting the far right lunatic vote:
Kelli Ward (far right lunatic)- 36%
Martha McSally (mainstream conservative)- 27%
Joe Arpaio (far right lunatic)- 22%
This is disastrous news for the GOP, since independents are likely to rejected Ward for Sinema in November.
These latest numbers show a huge swing since a January poll, conducted the same day Arpaio announced his Senate run, which had the former Maricopa County sheriff in a dead heat with then-front-runner McSally. In the January 9 results, Ward came in with the lowest percentage of the three candidates.

So how does Sinema stack up against all of the Republican candidates in a head-to-head race in November?

According to the ABC15/OHPI polling data, the Democrat is out in front to fill the seat previously held by Republican Jeff Flake, and is outpacing her GOP rivals in each of their potential races.

In an election facing Ward, Sinema holds a 10% lead, but 10% of likely voters remain undecided. A matchup against McSally is slightly closer, with Sinema ahead by 6% and another 10% of voters still undecided.

When paired up in a race against Arpaio, Sinema takes a huge lead, with 59% to Arpaio's 33%, and only 8% of voters undecided.

In a historically red-leaning state, a Democrat in the lead may seem surprising. But OHPI polling expert Mike Noble says there are a couple factors boosting Sinema's standing.

“The issue we are consistently seeing in the numbers is that Democrats are unified, Republicans are less united, and the all-important Independent voters are trending anti-Republican/Trump” said Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OHPI.
These polling numbers would be bad enough in any year for the Republicans. But in a wave year? Wrist slitting time! McConnell is ready to dump millions of dollars into the race for McSally, but not for Ward and Arpaio. As of the March 31 FEC reporting deadline Sinema had raised $6,370,867, spent $1,945,831 and is sitting on $6,688,670. McSally had raised $4,155,612, spent $3,893,324 and is sitting on $605,712. Arpaio reported nothing and Ward had raised $1,438,804, spent $1,140,730, and has just $350,002 cash on hand. (Neo-Nazi elements have spent $576,984 on behalf of Ward.)

It's now conceivable that the Democrats will hold onto vulnerable red-state seats (West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri) as well as purple state seats like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and win red-held Tennessee, Arizona, Nevada and even Texas. That would give the Democrats a bigger majority in the Senate than the Republicans have now. McConnell would be eating crow-- and paying for his authoritarian procedural way of running the Senate as Schumer takes over... looking for vengeance. Conceivable.

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At 5:39 PM, Blogger Gadfly said...

Beto is at least halfway a ConservaDem himself, Howie. But, as with the Stache, you're not really as progressive as you claim.

At 9:11 PM, Blogger edmondo said...

Martha McSally is not a mainstream conservative. She is just as crazy as the other two nutjobs. Show me one piece of legislation where she would vote differently than Ward or Ariapo. I dare you.

I detest Simina but I will vote for her because McSally- should she win- will be in the senate for the next 30 years. She's that bad.

At 12:45 AM, Anonymous ap215 said...

Here's Kyle on O'Rourke voting to approve the Volcker Rule Regulation Harmonization Act.

At 6:40 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's the forest view.

Scummer, should the 'craps get a majority, will have the harriet reid problem of 2009: How to appear to be a democrat while faithfully serving the big donors (which means ratfucking everyone else).

Scummer's step 1 is to recruit devout corrupt fascists who don't scare corporate and billionaire donors -- keeping the money flowing.
Step 2 will be to come up with some kind of play-act that will fool their idiot electorate. reid staged the ACA performances, several "threats" to go nuclear on filibusters, which was hilarious if you think about it -- the democraps needed Rs and often themselves to filibuster shit so they didn't have to actually not pass it.

reid was no thespian and 15 million of obamanation's voters from 2008 stayed home in 2010, which started the vacuum that ended up giving us trump.

I've seen scummer for a long time now. He ain't no thespian either. But he has one thing going for him -- democrap voters are much dumber than they were a decade ago.

Here's what I DO know: the 'craps aren't going to do anything that would displease their donors. They'll threaten and posture, all the better to demand even bigger bribes. And they'll get paid to not do anything the money doesn't want.

Will 'crap voters recognize it as they did in 2010? That's the unknown in this recipe.

At 8:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The "democrats" will bungle this by stuffing "ex"-Republicans into all of the candidate spots, convincing many voters AGAIN that while Republicans are the enemy, "democrats" are not your friend. "Democrats" don't want to win, or they would develop and effective GOTV program that doesn't only focus on who to vote against. They will continue to lose elections until they give voters a reason to vote FOR.

At 10:31 AM, Blogger Chris Roberts said...

here is thing waves don't just hit house.if dems were to pick up 40 to 50 house seats as some predict no wat eather the senate or governorships races as well as state house and state senate on't be affected.

even republicans think they could lose the senate so i am not only one.

now i won't pretend as progressive senate with schumer as majority leader will great.i don't think much or him or pelosi even though i hate the gop.

but with jones safe till 2020 and vote with gop and add to that mccaskill,manchen,hedikemp,and Donnelly if they survive november gop will hate 5 fake dems voting with them even in minority.

At 2:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chris, if I ken your post correctly, you just described 2009. The house won't be as big 'crap as then, but simple majority rules there.
The senate then had 60 once Franken was seated. But they had no fewer than 8 and as many as 16 who were posers and who took their turns filibustering useful lege and amendments. Remember Nelson from NE and Bayh from IN? Remember Baucus who was lead actor in the ACA performance art? And of course it had dodd to not do a useful bank reg act with frank.

Harriet Reid is gone, but Scummer is probably worse. And he will run his caucus more as a tyrant than reid did. reid didn't need to be a tyrant to fail... he had an effective minority with his 60. The whip was busy finding the 1-7 'craps who would agree to torpedo whatever progressive stuff was on the floor. But there were always plenty of volunteers to serve the money.

Some of the names have changed, but the 'craps have done nothing but get worse.

At 2:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Cruz would like nothing more than to be able to equate Beto with Schumer." That shouldn't be hard. Beto voted with 77 other Democrats to weaken the Volker Rule last week. Wtf?

- Kim Kaufman


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