How Badly Will The Republican Tax Scam Hurt The GOP In The Midterms?

In Pennsylvania an ungerrymandered congressional map spelled doom and gloom for the GOP. That's why, at least in part, Charlie Dent, Ryan Costello, Bill Shuster and Pat Meehan all announced early retirements and why Brian Fitzpatrick, Rothfus and Mike Kelly still may (or wish they did). The PVIs of these districts changed significantly enough to drive these Republicans out of office. Costello's old district went from an R+2 to a D+2. Meehan's went from a R+1 to a D+13. Dent's went from an R+4 to a D+1. Fitzpatrick's went from R+2 to R+1. Scott Perry's went from an R+11 to an R+6. And Rothfus' went from an R+11 to an R+3.

Yesterday Muhlenberg College and Morning Call released a new poll of Pennsylvania voters that indicates as choppy seas for Republicans as Republican incumbents suspected. Trump's numbers are in the toilet; only 39% of respondents approve of the way he is doing his job. And only 12% approve off the way the Republican-controlled Congress it doing its job. At the top of the state's ticket-- Governor Tom Wolf and Senator Bob Casey are both way ahead of all their potential GOP opponents.

Asked "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for?" The Democrats led 47% to 38%. At a Lincoln Day Republican dinner last weekend, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker told the crowd that "The wind’s not at our back. It’s not at our side. It is firmly in our face. This election is going to be tougher than any one I have been involved with, including the recall... My number-one concern for almost a year has been complacency, not just of [GOP] voters but even of activists"

And, back in Pennsylvania, when the pollsters asked "Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform law that was passed by Congress and signed by the President in December," only 39% approved and 46% disapproved. Those results very much fit with the results of a new national Gallup poll released this week. 39% approve of the Trump-GOP tax law and 52% disapproved.

More Americans realize the tax bill was a scam, "showering the wealthy with deficit-financed tax breaks, while leaving workers and the American middle class behind."

It makes sense that Americans continue to hold a negative view of the bill. For one, the overwhelming majority of the benefits are going to the already wealthy. In 2018, the richest 1 percent will see a tax break of more than $50,000, or almost $1,000 per week. The poorest 20 percent will see a mere $60 spread out over the course of the entire year, slightly more than $1 per week. Tax hikes will arrive for millions of Americans in the coming years, with some kicking in this year. For example, homeowners in Los Angeles will see a 30-year mortgage cost up to $76,000 more, thanks to new changes in the tax bill.

Republicans dismissed the concerns of critics, who warned their bill would primarily benefit corporations, not average Americans. As predicted, rich corporations are spending their Congressional kickbacks to enrich Wall Street through record-setting dividend payments and stock buybacks, not investing in workers.

According to USA Today, “it is the massive spending on dividends and share buybacks that critics pounce on, as this use of cash benefits the wealthy and company shareholders, rather than middle-class workers.” After all, the wealthiest 10 percent of households own an astounding 84 percent of all stocks owned by Americans, according to a New York University economist.

USA Today further reports that less than 10 percent of Fortune 500 companies gave bonuses to workers as a result of the tax bill. And the majority of workers say they have not seen any increase in their own paychecks. Speaker Paul Ryan once boasted about a secretary who will receive $1.50 extra per week. Six quarters is hardly the change Republicans promised.

Republicans claimed the bill would be a boon to small business. Instead, the unfair advantage given to wealthy corporations drew a quick rebuke from small business owners, who soured on a bill heaping even more advantages on the richest Americans, people who already have the most resources.

Claims that the deficit-financed boondoggle-- promoted as “rocket fuel” for the economy-- would lead to an abundance of new jobs and increasing wages for workers didn’t pan out either. The most recent jobs report from the Labor Department shows an economy performing largely as it did in years past. The economy continues to grow like it did under President Obama, except America is now saddled with more debt.

Thanks to a recent report, Americans now know 80 percent of gains from the tax bill are going offshore to foreign investors. In other words, the United States will borrow money to pay for an unpopular tax bill so that foreign investors can receive four out of every five dollars of economic gain. On top of that, there are provisions in the bill designed to incentivize corporations to outsource jobs and hide profits overseas to avoid paying their fair share of taxes.

The unpopularity of the tax bill isn’t only about its skewed rewards system. Massive changes to health care policy, which is leading to dramatic health care cost increases, is also an issue for the public.

In some parts of the country, health care premiums are estimated to increase by up to 94 percent in the next three years, mainly due to Republican-backed provisions in the tax bill. An estimated 13 million Americans will lose health insurance in the coming years.

And of course, the corporate kickbacks doled out are not free; Republicans in Congress decided to pay for the tax bill through a massive increase to the national deficit. It didn’t matter that Republicans like Ryan, who so loudly backed the bill, once called the nation’s debt and deficit the defining issue of the day. (“The facts are very, very clear,” he said in 2011, “the United States is headed towards a debt crisis.”)

Now, the Republicans’ tax scam is a major component in the nation’s additional $2.4 trillion deficit. The fiscal recklessness of the tax bill even threatens America’s credit rating.

The tax scam is so bad even Republicans struggle, and fail, when campaigning on its merits. In a recent Pennsylvania congressional special election, the bill was so unpopular Republicans stopped talking about it, pivoting instead to Trump-like race-baiting, anti-immigrant advertising. (In a district Trump won by 20 points, the Democratic challenger won.)

At the conservative WashingtonExaminer.com, right-wing reporter David Drucker wrote that "Trump is undermining voter support for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act with erratic messaging after it was gaining popularity, alarming Republicans counting on the law to save the party’s vulnerable House majority. Senior Republicans are declining to publicly finger Trump for the heralded tax overhaul’s sagging approval ratings. Views of the law steadily climbed during the first two months of the year on the strength of a unified push from the White House and Capitol Hill ahead of the midterm. Privately, Republicans complain that the president’s sudden shift to tariffs, with threats of trade wars, distracted from the positive impacts of $1.3 trillion in tax cuts and allowed Democrats to regain the upper hand. Concluding that Trump is unreliable, Republicans say it’s their responsibility to turn public opinion around."

In a fresh NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted jointly by Democratic and Republican pollsters, the law was underwater: 27 percent approved, 36 percent disapproved. Those results track with private data Republicans have monitored, sparking anxiety about their chances of surviving a tough November election with their House majority intact.

"Republicans have a lot of work in front of them to make sure people understand the benefits of the tax bill, and nobody is going to be driving this but them. They need to understand that it’s not just-- we’ve done this, let’s go on to the next thing,” said David Winston, a GOP pollster who advises House and Senate Republicans.

“The signature achievement for Congressional Republicans for this Congress will have been the tax bill-- no matter what else they do,” he added.

Senator Bob Corker (R-TN), who is retiring rather than continue working with Trump said he wouldn't campaign against the Democrat running for his seat in November. And yesterday he described the White House as being the center of "constant chaos," blasting Trump's spending bill as "grotesque, adding ominously, "This president, obviously, is not a president who’s interested in fiscal issues. Is this president a president who cares about the fiscal health of our nation? No. No." Voters-- even Republican voters-- aren't going to be happy about that.