A Way--Albeit A Weak Way-- Of Looking At The Midterms

Inside-the-Beltway, there are just a few people who create the conventional wisdom that the electoral experts in the two parties base their decisions on. One is David Wasserman of the Cook Report. When it comes to House races, his wisdom is an infinite feedback loop with the DCCC and the NRCC. Friday he published his latest analysis of the upcoming wave. Always petrified to go out on any limbs or offending anyone he wrote that "Multiple indicators including generic ballot polls, President Trump's approval ratings and recent special election results, point to midterm danger for Republicans. But without robust race-by-race polling, it's trickier to predict individual races six months out. Are Democrats the favorites to pick up the 23 seats they need for a majority? Yes, but it's still not certain which races will materialize for Democrats and which won't. He's come up with what he calls "seven risk factors to gauge Republican incumbents' political health and readiness for a wave election. In the past, those incumbents with a high number of risk factors have typically been the ripest targets, while those with fewer risk factors could still be vulnerable but may be better able to withstand a hostile political environment."

Our latest ratings point to 56 vulnerable GOP-held seats, versus six vulnerable Democratic seats. Of the 56 GOP seats at risk, 15 are open seats created by retirements. Even if Democrats were to pick up two-thirds of those seats, they would still need to hold all their own seats and defeat 13 Republican incumbents to reach the magic number of 218. Today, there are 18 GOP incumbents in our Toss Up column.

That Toss Up list is likely to grow as the cycle progresses. Out of the 65 GOP incumbents rated as less than "Solid," 49 were first elected in 2010 or after, meaning more than three quarters have never had to face this kind of political climate before. And, Democrats have a donor enthusiasm edge: in the first quarter of 2018, at least 43 sitting Republicans were out-raised by at least one Democratic opponent.

...The seven risk factors are:

1- Sits in a district with a Cook PVI score of R+5 or less Republican.
2- Sits in a district that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.
3- Received 55 percent of the vote or less in the 2016 election (or a 2017 special election).
4- Voted in favor of the American Health Care Act in the May 4 roll call vote.
5- Voted in favor of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the December 19 roll call vote.
6- Raised less money than at least one Democratic opponent in the first quarter of 2018.
7- Has a Democratic opponent with at least $200,000 in cash on hand as of March 31.

Only one incumbent, Rep. Steve Knight (CA-25), has all seven risk factors. Eight incumbents have six risk factors, 23 incumbents have five, 23 incumbents have four and 32 have three. This is not a hard and fast list, and over the next quarter, many incumbents will add or subtract factors based on their own and their opponents' progress.

In the universe Wasserman has created-- which doesn't take into account anything about how good or terrible challengers and incumbents are beyond ability too raise money, here are the other candidates with 3 rick factors and above:

• Six Risk Factors

• CA-10- Jeff Denham
• FL-26- Carlos Curbelo
• IL-12- Mike Bost
• IA-01- Rod Blum
• KS-03- Kevin Yoder
• MN-02- Jason Lewis
• PA-01- Brian Fitzpatrick
• TX-23- Will Hurd

• Five Risk Factors

• CA-21-David Valadao
• CA-45- Mimi Walters
• CA-48- Dana Rohrabacher
• CO-06- Mike Coffman
• FL-18- Brian Mast
• IL-14- Randy Hultgren
• IN-09- Trey Hollingsworth
• IA-03- David Young
• ME-02- Bruce Polquin
• MI-01- Jack Bergman
• MI-06- Fred Upton
• MI-07- Tim Walberg
• MI-08- Mike Bishop
• MN-03- Erik Paulsen
• NE-02- Don Bacon
• NJ-03- Tom MacArthur
• NJ-07- Leonard Lance
• NY-22- Claudia Tenney
• OH-01- Steve Chabot
• PA-11- Lloyd Smucker
• PA-17- Keith Rothfus
• TX-32- Pete Sessions
• VA-10- Barbara Comstock

• Four Risk Factors

• AK-AL Don Young
• AR-02- French Hill
• CA-04- Tom McClintock
• CA-08- Paul Cook
• GA-07- Rob Woodall
• IL-06- Peter Roskam
• IL-13- Rodney Davis
• IA-04- Steve King
• KY-06- Andy Barr
• NY-19- John Faso
• NC-09- Robert Pittenger
• NC-13- Ted Budd
• OH-07- Bob Gibbs
• OH-14- David Joyce
• PA-16- Mike Kelly
• SC-01- Mike Sanford
• TX-07- John Culberson
• UT-04- Mia Love
• VA-02- Scott Taylor
• VA-05- Tom Garrett
• VA-07- Dave Brat
• WV-01- David McKinley
• WI-06- Glenn Grothman

• Three Risk Factors

• AL-02- Martha Roby
• CA-01- Doug LaMalfa
• CA-22- Devin Nunes
• CA-50- Duncan Hunter
• CO-03- Scott Tipton
• FL-16- Vern Buchanan
• FL-25- Mario Diaz-Balart
• GA-06- Karen Handel
• IN-02- Jackie Walorski
• IN-03- Jim Banks
• KS-04- Jim Estes
• MD-01- Andy Harris
• MI-02- Bill Huizenga
• MO-02- Ann Wagner
• MT-AL- Greg Gianforte
• NY-01- Lee Zeldin
• NY-02- Peter King
• NY-11- Daniel Donovan
• NY-21- Elise Stefanik
• NY-23- Tom Reed
• NY-24- John Katko
• NC-02- George Holding
• OH-10- Mike Turner
• OH-15- Steve Stivers
• PA-10- Scott Perry
• SC-05- Ralph Norman
• TN-04- Scott DesJarlais
• TX-31- John Carter
• TX-36- Brian Babin
• WA-03- Jaime Herrera Beutler
• WA-05- Cathy McMorris Rodgers
• WV-02- Alex Mooney

What Wasserman isn't looking at-- aside from the talent of individual candidates-- is factors like resignations, (leaving loads of open seats) and of the ungerrynadering of Pennsylvania. For example Pat Meehan's old district went from a R+1 to a D+13. Anyone want to guess which party will hold that seat after January? I don't want to say Wasserman's tables are utterly useless, but if media and the party committee's use it for anything they'll be-- as usual-- lost at sea. Note for example, there's no mention on any of his tables of WI-01, the Randy Bryce seat; what a joke! But conventional wisdom has caught onto that one yet-- and probably won't until the first Wednesday of November.