COUNTING ON McCAIN TO DIE BEFORE NOVEMBER ISN'T THE ANSWER

One of my friends, "R," was complaining because, as a California independent, he couldn't vote for McCain yesterday. Republicans in California, defying Schwarzenegger's somewhat more enlightened approach, decided that they didn't want independents or Decline to State voters in their primary. Democrats, of course, welcomed them. "R" voted for Hillary instead. Another friend, "I," had recently turned 18 and yesterday was his first time voting. His family is pretty active in Latino politics and they were urging him-- insistently-- to vote for McCain. He wound up going for Obama though. I feel certain his family members aren't registered as Republicans so they couldn't have voted for McCain, although that was his father's and sister's intention when they went to vote.

This bothers me no end. "R" and "I" were both thinking about voting for McCain because of his immigration approach-- "R" because he believes McCain has been chastened and will take a tough stance against undocumented immigrants, and "I" because his family tells him that McCain is a friend of Latinos and will take a pro-immigrant stance. Both "R" and "I" seem to have swallowed the McCain-generated media hype that McCain is an independent-minded moderate. (On top of that, "R" visited the cell he was held in in Hanoi and feels some kind of cockamamie connection with him on that level.)

From my perspective, this presidential thing is a lock. We have two relatively excellent candidates in Obama and Hillary and everyone hates Bush and is just waiting for the clock to run out so they can send the party of Hatred and Bigotry and Greed and Selfishness for a nice long time out. I'm realizing that not everyone sees it the same way. To me it may be perfectly clear that a McCain victory in November would be tantamount to a third term for George Bush. But others see McCain as an acceptable anti-Bush. I know they're wrong and so do you-- but how do we convince them?

They feel that their point is being proved daily-- that McCain isn't just George Bush III-- by the barrage of anti-McCain venom being spewed out from the Ann Coulters, Rush Limbaughs, the Hannitys, Becks, Dobsons, etc. Today Pat Buchanan told NBC's Today Show that a McCain presidency will make Cheney look like Gandhi.

What will sink in? When will moderately informed moderates understand who McCain really is? Conventional wisdom has him pegged as a moderate, an independent, and Mr. Clean. We're not going to be able to count on Limbaugh and Coulter to make the case for us that he's an anti-choice fanatic who will appoint judges every bit as hideous as Bush. We won't be able to count on Hannity and Dobson to make the point for us that "Mr. Campaign Finance Reform" is a grubby political hack who was caught with his hand in the till and desperately tried reinventing himself as a clean campaigner. We won't be able to count on Glenn Beck and Laura Ingraham to make the case for us that McCain will probably be worse than Bush in terms of both foreign policy and economic policy. Will we be able to count on Hillary? Obama? Do either of them-- both of them-- have what it takes to talk persuasively to the American voters and help them change minds that are already set in stone?




UPDATE: DESPITE "R" AND "I," THERE ARE SOME REALLY GOOD SIGNS

When I went to vote yesterday, the lady at the polling place said she was astounded by the massive early turnout. "Everyone just hates Bush; that's why they're here." Late last night I was watching Bush-weasel Ari Fleisher, who still hasn't been charged for his role in New Hampshire election fraud, pontificating on CNN. He acknowledged that most of the "energy" for Super Tuesday was with the Democrats. What he meant by that is that huge numbers of Democrats are coming out to vote and that Republicans are mostly just staying home... doing whatever it is that Republicans do when no one is looking. CNN claimed over 11 million Democrats voted yesterday, compared to around 7 million Republicans.

This morning, with votes still being tallied, it looks like CNN may have understated the difference. Democratic voters can't wait to get to the polls. Look at these examples:

STATE: MISSOURI
PREVIOUS RECORD: 528,000
VOTES TONIGHT SO FAR: 778,000 (98% reporting)
% CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS RECORD: +47%

STATE: ILLINOIS
PREVIOUS RECORD: 1,504,000
VOTES TONIGHT SO FAR: 1,809,000 (91% reporting)
% CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS RECORD: +20%

STATE: NEW YORK
PREVIOUS RECORD: 1,575,000
VOTES TONIGHT SO FAR: 1,744,000 (99% reporting)
% CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS RECORD: +11%

STATE: NEW JERSEY
PREVIOUS RECORD: 654,000
VOTES TONIGHT SO FAR: 1,104,000 (99% reporting)
% CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS RECORD: +69%

STATE: MASSACHUSETTS
PREVIOUS RECORD: 793,000
VOTES TONIGHT SO FAR: 1,170,000 (98% reporting)
% CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS RECORD: +48%

STATE: ARIZONA
PREVIOUS RECORD: 239,000
VOTES TONIGHT SO FAR: 314,000 (67% reporting)
% CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS RECORD: +31%

And one thing for sure, Democrats will not win in November if their strategy is driven by the laziness of waiting for the Republican right to not support McCain-- or by hoping that McCain's accomodation of his party's extremists' insane demands will turn off independents and moderates. It doesn't really matter what kind sof promises he makes to the slobbering neo-fascsists at the Coulter-banned CPAC Convention tomorrow. What matters is a Democrat who can make and close the case. Of course, the fact that Democrats and independents are voting in record numbers and Republicans aren't voting at all this year, will be a great help as well.