LOOKING AT IOWA FROM A PERSPECTIVE OVERSEAS-- VOTERS REJECT THEIR PARTIES' INSIDER ESTABLISHMENTS

I don't know how much coverage the theft of the Kenyan presidential election-- and the aftermath-- are getting back in the U.S., but here in Thailand, the story is as big as the Iowa caucuses. Every time I turn on the TV, I see images of Kenyans out in the streets willing to die to defend their democracy from the powerful establishment that decided to count the votes in its own special establishment way.

This electoral vote theft thing has become more and more accepted since Bush got away with it in 2000. When he talks about transplanting "democracy" all over the world, he isn't talking about real elections in Ecuador or Bolivia (which his regime seeks to undermine), but corrupted elections. He actually calls military dictatorships like the one in Pakistan "democracies." But what isn't common is how the citizens of Kenya are standing up to power and saying NO. These people are putting Americans to shame. We were unwilling to stand up for democracy in 2000 and in 2004, and look what we got.

Today voters of both American political parties said NO to the insider establishments of their political parties. Almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans turned out to vote in Iowa-- a 50/50 state. That's huge, and it should scare the bejesus out of the GOP. And only 30% of the Democrats (at latest count) went with the insider candidate, Hillary Clinton (although feel free to add Biden's 1% to her 30% if you'd like to get an aggregate vote for the Insider Establishment).

And the only counties where Clinton did well were the most conservative places in the state, along the Nebraska border in the far west and a couple of conservative counties in the north. All the counties with progressive voters went to Obama and Edwards. Independents aren't a huge factor in Iowa, the way they are in New Hampshire, but they went overwhelmingly for Obama. Hillary barely got any at all. Democrats voted for change. Hillary was viewed as more of the same crap we're all sick of.

On the Republican side, we witnessed the beginning of the end for the farfetched campaign of the closest thing the Republicans thought they had to an Insider, the fatally flawed, big-spending Flip Flop Mitt. He spent more than everyone else-- by a lot-- and he had to win in Iowa to show he was viable. But the more people in Iowa got to know him, the further his numbers eroded. All his millions bought him a weak second-place finish in a dismally weak field. Bye-bye, Willard.

Today Roll Call broke the news that yet another Republican incumbent member of Congress is packing it in. The latest unexpected catastrophe for the GOP congressional caucus is Pennsylvania's John Peterson, who had been targeted by Democrats and by unions for his cruel and callous vote against health care for children. He says he's leaving because of health issues-- his own, not childrens'. His district is the most rural and the largest in the state, and it is very, very red, Bush having taken 61% in 2004.

The GOP is a mess. The party's presidential nomination is worthless this year. They'll probably wind up with McCain, unless he dies of old age between now and the election. He will run as the Bomb Iran, Bomb Iraq, Bomb Everyone candidate, and he'll depend on treacherous slime like Joe Lieberman to make people think he's "bipartisan." Few will buy it, and he will ultimately do worse than Bob Dole in 1996, the Republican nominee he has the most in common with-- i.e., it's kind of his turn.

One would hope Duncan Hunter will now drop out of the race and face indictment for corruption. So far the only one to drop out is Chris Dodd, who progressives hope will replace the too-compromised Harry Reid as Senate majority leader. Biden also promised to drop out if he didn't make any headway; let's hope he's good to his word (for a change). Looks like Gravel, Biden and Dodd are all out of the race. Looks like Richardson will wait 'til after New Hampshire (like Romney and Frederick of Hollywood).

The biggest story of the Iowa caucuses, aside from the rejection of Insiders, is that even the third-place Democrat (Hillary) beat the first place Republican. As Republican blogger Andrew Sullivan said, last night was a disaster for the GOP, a disaster that portends an ill wind in the short, medium and long terms. Referring to the two parties, Sullivan writes: "One is a national party; the other is on its way to being an ideological church. The damage Bush and Rove have done - revealed in 2006 - is now inescapable."

That's what we've been sayin' here at DWT for a long long time. But it isn't just Bush and Rove. As guilty as they are, the entire "ideological church" has gone insane-- top to bottom.

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