Your Taxes Are Due Before Midnight-- So... A Good Day For Democratic Candidates To Send Out Contribution E-Mails

Some people do it right-- and some don't. Three that came in early that demonstrate how to do it are by a progressive candidate in Georgia, Marqus Cole, a progressive Northern California candidate, Audrey Denney, and a new progressive action committee run by Randy Bryce. Let's start with Cole, who's running to flip a Republican seat in the suburbs northwest of Atlanta. (Note: Marqus told me he writes his e-mails himself, the way Alan Grayson always did and few other candidates even try to do. Most hire consultants to handle that chore, which explains why they come across as so woefully inauthentic.)

This tax season, middle-class Americans are finding that their tax refunds have shrunk -- while millionaires and corporations are still rejoicing over their enormous tax cuts. Thanks to President Trump and Mitch McConnell’s tax plan, 60 companies-- including Amazon, Netflix, and Chevron-- will pay $0 on their BILLIONS in profits this year.

Placing the full burden of taxes on everyday Americans while the rich get richer is NOT just-- it’s morally and ethically wrong.

I’ve spent my career fighting for folks to get a fair shake. In Congress, I’ll make sure that we all have to pay our fair share of taxes-- starting at the top. Pitch in now to join me in the fight for the middle class.

Make no mistake: the GOP tax plan was paid for by billionaires and corporate executives. According to the Center for Public Integrity, wealthy donors donated over $30 MILLION to Republicans in just TWO MONTHS to get their 2018 tax plan passed.

It’s not easy to call out big donors and powerful companies, but I’m choosing to tell the truth because I don’t need their support-- I know that our campaign is fueled by grassroots donors who share a vision for an America that works for ALL its people.

It’s time to simplify the tax code and close loopholes that allow the rich to avoid paying their fair share. Will you join my campaign as we fight for middle-class American families like yours?

My family isn’t part of the 1%. I’m pretty sure yours isn’t either, Howard. We work hard to make ends meet and do our best to save for our childrens’ future. We’re right here in this fight with you.

  In solidarity,

Marqus

Like that approach? There's more to think about than just "give me some money because Trump is horrible." If you like it and want to help elect a progressive Democrat to replace a Republican in Georgia-- in a district Stacey Abrams won-- please click on the Blue America thermometer above and contribute what you can to Marqus' campaign. And here's another good approach, this one from Audrey Denney:

Audrey started with a simple, "Friend, it's Tax Day!" And then lit into her district's very conservative Republican congressman and Trump apologist and enabler.

That reminds me of something. My opponent, Rep. Doug LaMalfa, spent much of the last election touting and defending the Trump “tax cuts.” He said the average family in our district would see an extra $4,000 in their pockets this year.

I am hearing regularly from people all over our district who have not experienced this promised reduction. So I have one simple question: Did you experience an extra $4,000 this tax season, or did our Congressman break his promise? We need a representative who can deliver real results and accurate information to the people of Northern California, not the same politicians who mislead their constituents in the name of political gain. It’s time for fresh leadership.

Hold Rep. Doug LaMalfa accountable to his word: let us know whether or not you experienced having another $4,000 in your pocket this past year.

Now, the Iron PAC, is Randy Bryce's new outfit, meant to helping working class candidates get elected to Congress. Randy decided to use Tax Day to hone in on one bad Republican incumbent he's hoping to see defeated in 2020, Florida's Vern Buchanan. Here's the e-mail he sent out yesterday-- short, sweet and right to the point:

With tomorrow’s tax deadline coming up, we can’t stop thinking about Rep. Vern Buchanan, who bought himself a new yacht the same day he voted to give himself a $2.1+ million tax cut.

More than half of members of Congress are millionaires--they can’t relate to the issues people struggling to make car payments are dealing with.

Here’s my promise to you: with your support, Iron PAC will seek out and support working people who do more than acknowledge that the middle class is struggling. Iron PAC will work with men and women who are struggling and give them the tools to fix our country.

Can you chip in $5 to help Vern and his plutocrat buddies spend a little more time on their yachts, and give our country back to the people who built it?

Will The Blue Wave Be Enough To Win Congress On Its Own?

Don't underestimate the power of women to protect the species from Trump and his enablers

Zac Anderson is the political editor of Sarasota County's top newspaper, the Herald-Tribune. After the surprise Democratic win in a special election for an open legislative seat there last week, Anderson took a deep drive into what happened on the ground to swing a red district 12 points away from Trump in just 15 months since the district gave him a credible win against Hillary. What everyone wants to know, of course, is how to make sure this happens in congressional districts-- not just FL-16 and not just Florida-- but across the country. A 12 point swing in November would certainly hand the House back to the Democrats-- and average district swings since Putin put Trump into the White House have been around 20, not 12.

The loser last Tuesday was James Vernon Buchanan, the son of Vern Buchanan, the congressman from the area. Last November Trump beat Hillary in the older Buchanan's congressional district, 53.7% to 43.0%. All things being equal-- an absurd concept-- a 12 point swing would hand the congressional district over to Buchanan's opponent, either Jan Schneider, David Shapiro or Calen Cristiani. Does it matter which one is nominated? How could it not? Florida media always refers to Shapiro as a "serious" candidate; he's raised over a quarter million dollars and appears to be a "moderate." Neither Cristiani nor Schneider (each a progressive from the Bernie wing of the party) had reported any contributions as of December 31, although Schneider has big name ID, having run in the area multiple times. Quality of candidates and their campaigns matter. Anderson felt that had a lot to do-- besides the building wave-- with Good's win over Buchanan's son last week.

Some Democrats were nervous when polls closed Tuesday in the District 72 state House special election and it became clear that Republican Election Day turnout had far outpaced Democratic turnout.

Democrat Margaret Good appeared to have done well in absentee and early voting. Republican James Buchanan’s prospects for victory hinged on a big GOP Election Day push that brought in 8,168 Republican voters, or 2,652 more than Democrats.

Yet Buchanan only won Election Day voting by 110 votes, not nearly enough to offset Good’s big lead in absentee and early voting.

That led political analysts to conclude that a big chunk of Republican voters - and most independent voters-- went for Good.

That-- combined with strong Democratic turnout-- is how Good won a district that went for President Donald Trump in 2016 and has 12,060 more Republicans than Democrats, electrifying her party in the process and bringing national attention to Sarasota as a potential indicator for midterm elections in November.

Tom Eldon, Good’s pollster and a longtime Florida Democratic operative who once lived in Sarasota, said the fact that Good attracted support from Republican and no party affiliation voters in the northern Sarasota County state House district is not unusual. The area is known as a bastion for moderate Republicans.

But garnering enough GOP and NPA support to secure a 7.4 percentage-point victory in a district that went for Trump by 4.4 percentage points-- a 12 point swing-- is astounding, Eldon said.

“Seeing crossover support from Republicans is not uncommon in Sarasota,” Eldon said. “Seeing NPAs vote for the Democrat is not uncommon. Seeing it at this level is remarkable and at that point I think you’re seeing some Trump backlash with that.”

Good also appears to have benefited from unusually high Democratic turnout, especially among women, said Democratic consultant Steve Schale.

“Largely the story in special elections around the country, women were the story here in Sarasota,” Schale, who ran former President Barack Obama’s campaign in Florida in 2008, wrote in a blog post.

Schale said in an interview that there were two key elements to Good’s victory.

“You saw Democrats turn out, particularly women,” he said. “Then the fact that Republicans-- clearly large numbers of Republicans-- voted for her.”

Democrats make up 32 percent of the registered voters in District 72. But 40 percent of the voters who cast ballots in the special election were Democrats. And while Democratic women make up 20 percent of registered voters in the district, they accounted for 24 percent of voters in the special election.

“The Good campaign did a fantastic job in turning out Democrats,” Eldon said. “When you look at the turnout for Democrats, it’s staggering.”

Eldon believes Good appealed to women across party lines as a “highly qualified female candidate” at a time when “you’re having a national conversation on the treatment of women.”

Turnout was up among women in general, not just Democratic women. Voter registration in the district is 54 percent female but 56 percent of the voters in the special election were women.

The voters who show up in lower-profile special elections “do so for for a reason,” Eldon added.

“That’s to send a message,” he said. “A lot of women were voting who typically don’t vote in an election like this. They were fed up and they were taking it out on James Buchanan.”

Republicans also cast a greater share of the ballots in the special election than their share of registered voters in District 72, but they only went up from 42 percent to 46 percent of the electorate.

That’s a sign that Good had a strong field operation that was aggressive in getting Democratic voters to the polls, and that Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans.

Good had a full-time staff of eight paid employees and hundreds of volunteers knocking on doors.

“Very early we made a conscious decision to invest in the field organization and that is something you will see in all of our House races this cycle,” said Reggie Cardoza, the director of political operations for Democrats in the Florida House. “The most effective and efficient way to reach a voter is face to face.”

Eldon said the field team put together by Good and the state Democratic Party was so strong it was more reminiscent of a congressional race than a state House race. Good was able to build up a 3,368-vote lead in absentee and in-person early voting. Voters talked about being repeatedly visited by door knockers and receiving a steady stream of flyers, telephone calls and text messages.

“The get-out-the-vote effort and the field in general was just a very strong fundamental campaign execution,” said Sarasota County Democratic Party Vice Chairman Kevin Griffith, who said he knocked on a few hundred doors.

Griffith said many voters he talked to while knocking on doors “were really motivated.”

“I think it’s just the anti-Trump fervor,” he said.


So was Good destined for victory in District 72 because of the national political climate?

Schale said it’s crucial that Democrats recruited a credible candidate. Good is a lawyer with strong community connections. He also credited Good and her team with running an aggressive, disciplined campaign. Good raised more money than Buchanan and was able to do considerable advertising to complement her get- out-the-vote effort. The strength of the campaign caused prominent Democrats to take notice. Good received an endorsement and campaign help from former Vice President Joe Biden.

But Schale believes Good benefited greatly from anti-Trump backlash among Democrats and independents.

“I don’t want to take away from the campaign those guys ran,” he said. “She’s a great candidate, did a great job. There’s a certain level to this that the Democrats ran a real candidate people wanted to vote for; you can’t take that away. But at the same time independents are so open to voting for somebody different.”

Buchanan also struggled to find his footing as a candidate. Members of his own party criticized him for refusing to debate Good until the final stretch of the campaign, and questioned whether he had a compelling message. A last-ditch effort to try and boost GOP turnout by appearing at a rally with former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski raised eyebrows among some Republicans.

Eldon said Buchanan focused too much on hot-button national issues such as immigration that didn’t resonate as well in Sarasota.

“The voters down here care about the environment, they care about education, they’re very concerned about climate change and sea level rise and all they heard from James Buchanan was sanctuary cities, sanctuary cities and sanctuary cities,” Eldon said. “It just fell flat.”

The inability of Lewandowski and Trump-style messaging to pull Buchanan across the finish line indicates the backlash to Trump may be a more potent political force than pro-Trump sentiment right now.

It also means the results from Sarasota’s special election could have big ramifications throughout Florida and the nation. Schale ran state House campaigns for Florida Democrats in 2006 when there was a blue wave. He also experienced the GOP backlash in 2010 that saw Republicans do extremely well in such races. He knows what waves feel like, and he knows what districts are good indicators of where the political winds are blowing. For a Democrat to win by such a big margin in a Sarasota County legislative district that has a relatively older, whiter, more GOP-leaning electorate is a very good sign for the party.

“I don’t think you can overstate the significance of it,” he said. “It wasn’t like a squeaker.”

In Florida a 12 point swing in November would-- again all things being equal-- see the end of the congressional careers of Ted Yoho, Dennis Ross, Brian Mast, Mario Diaz-Balart and Carlos Curbelo and probably Gus Bilirakis, Bill Posey and Francis Rooney.

Around the country, you'd be saying Randy Bryce replace Paul Ryan in southeast Wisconsin, Lisa Brown replacing Cathy McMorris Rodgers in eastern Washington, Lillian Salerno replacing Pete Sessions in Dallas, Derrick Crowe taking a red seat in the Austin/San Antonio corridor seat, Jason Westin replacing John Culberson in Houston, Jess King replacing Lloyd Smucker in Lancaster, PA, Tom Guild replacing Steve Russell in Oklahoma City, DuWayne Gregory replacing Peter King on Long Island, Jenny Marshall replacing Virginia Foxx in North Carolina, Paul Clements replacing Fred Upton in Kalamazoo, Jared Golden replacing Bruce Poliquin in Maine, Austin Frerick replacing David Young in Des Moines and southwest Iowa, Sam Jammal and Doug Applegate filling the abandoned red seats in southern California, Katie Hill beating Steve Knight in Santa Clarita and David Gill replacing Rodney Davis in central Illinois.

But as Dr. Gill mentioned, "We view the November general election as a golden opportunity to move toward real change; given my past performance against the Republican incumbent, we have no doubt that I can defeat him this year. And when I get to Washington, I intend to be a game-changer, using my background as an emergency medicine physician to counter the myths advanced by those who oppose single-payer, and to help lead the charge to the type of health care system that FDR envisioned for us 75 years ago. But first, of course, I have to survive on March 20. And this primary is really a battle for the soul of the Democratic party. I'm taking on establishment-backed candidates who refuse to stand up for single-payer, the Fight for 15, or tuition freedom. I'll be out-spent, but not out-worked: my staff and I, and our passionate volunteers, have knocked on thousands of doors and talked with thousands of voters. And those Democratic voters are done with half-measures, they're done with Republican Lite. They are demanding a shift toward a government focused on ordinary people, and as a lifelong progressive populist, I look forward to being a part of such a seismic shift." Want to help David and the other Blue America candidates win those primaries against establishment candidates? That's what the thermometer just above is for.

Another Special Election Coming Up-- This One In Florida-- Will Voters Let Trump Know What They Think Of Him?

We've been following state legislative races because we're interested in the clear pattern that shows a stunning swing towards Democratic candidates-- often a result a Democratic enthusiasm and the lack of enthusiasm among Republicans. And, more often than not, the enthusiasm levels are about Trump and the Republican Congress. Next up is in a pretty red district based in Sarasota, Florida, House District 72, which goes from the I-75 to the beach below Tampa.

In 2016, Republican Alexandra Miller beat Democrat Edward James 50,468 (58.06%) to 36,449 (41.94%). Miller, a freshman, resigned in August, less than a year after winning the seat. The favorite to win next month is James Buchanan, son of U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, the district's congressman. His Democratic opponent is Margaret Good, a moderate Democrat, who supports Choice, LGBT equality, and says she will fight to expand Medicare and to protect the fragile Florida environment.

The House district is entirely within Sarasota County and entirely within Buchana's congressional district (FL-16). HD 72 is about 83% white, 11.3% Hispanic and 2.6% Black. The median household income is just over $49,000, slightly higher than the state ($47,866) and the rest of the congressional district ($48,202). The district went for Trump by a little over 4 points. If the swing in a blue direction is around the average of what it has been nationally in state legislative races (around 20 points), Buchanan will be swamped.

The Herald-Tribune reported a couple weeks ago that Good has started outraising Buchanan (by double) and that, in desperation, he's turned to hardball tactics and has started attacking her. Buchanan-affiliated SuperPACs are attacking her for her support for Medicare and the Affordable Care Act, something likely to backfire on Buchanan. Buchanan, a real estate agent, has been afraid to debate Good, an attorney, and would rather just rely on the smear tactic attack ad. We'll soon see if those tactics work in a wave cycle.

If Good beats Congressman Buchanan's son in his own congressional district expect major-- really major-- panic to set in among the Florida Republicans , the Florida Republicans who aren't already panicking. The election is in about 2 weeks-- February 13.

A Pervasive Culture Of Corruption Determines The GOP Agenda

This week Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) released it's list of the 10 worst corrupt Members of Congress for 2011. New Hampshire only has two congressmen, corporate shills Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass... and they're both on the list! Ann McLane Kuster, who's running for the seat Bass managed to worm his way back into last year, threaded the needle, pointing out last night that it's "bad enough that Congressman Bass is under the thumb of Speaker Boehner, Eric Cantor and the Far Right wing of this Republican Congress. But today CREW confirmed that he is using his position as a Member of Congress to financially benefit his family. Corruption of our politics is what drives Republicans like Congressman Bass to focus on tax loopholes for big-money donors instead of investment in jobs here at home. This is not acceptable."

Not acceptable? Not acceptable to whom? To Republicans it's part of the weird way they define "freedom" and liberty and it's the alter so many of them worship at. Rarely does a day pass by when some preachy Republican asshat doesn't get caught with his greasy fingers in something it shouldn't be in. This week we all found out about a different kind of Dong scandal haunting right-wing hypocrite Lindsey Graham, for example. Lindsay got all the initial blame for the scandal, but, as it turns out, the Dongs have been funneling large amounts of their stolen money into the South Carolina Republican Party and to other Republicans warchests as well, including Joe "You Lie" Wilson and hypocritical campaign finance "reformer" John McCain, long one of the Senate's most corrupt members and, of course, one of Graham's closest conspirators in all things (except, presumably dongs, small "d"). This Dong, in fine GOP "freedom" style, defrauded at least $3.6 million in taxpayer money giving Graham regular hefty cuts-- and quite illegally, to boot. He managed to load up Lindsay Graham's campaign treasury with tens of thousands of dollars in illegal foreign bribes.

Jian-Yun "John" Dong, the president of the South Carolina-based biotechnology firm GenPhar, and his estranged wife are accused of making at least $31,000 in illegal campaign contributions to Graham and his political action committee. GenPhar was Graham's sixth largest contributor between 2005 and 2010, with $46,269 in donations coming from GenPhar employees.

The indictments came down in April, but federal authorities didn't unseal the charges until Monday. Federal prosecutors allege Dong took $30,000 from a German national and funneled that money to support Graham's reelection. Graham's treasurer said that they were cooperating with federal authorities.

...The indictment alleges that Dong and an unnamed co-defendant falsified grant applications, progress reports, time sheets and other documents sent to federal agencies. They then used federal money for construction costs, lobbying fees, and travel and personal expenses not allowed under the grant program, the indictment states.

Dong reportedly created another company, Vaxima Inc., to help him divert federal cash for his own use, authorities said.

The newspaper reports that Dong allegedly had a German shareholder in his company transfer $36,000 from an overseas bank account to him, his wife and a worker at the company. They allegedly routed their donations to Graham through their minor daughter, family members and GenPhar employees.
"This is your money at work," Dong allegedly wrote in a Sept. 2007 email to his German investor, referring to obtaining government funds for a GenPhar project.

Graham was quoted in a press release touting one GenPhar grant.

"Once again, South Carolina is demonstrating that we are on the forefront of military technology," Graham said in a statement related on the GenPhar website.

"Military facilities in South Carolina are the tip of the spear for our nation's armed forces. I am proud to be from a state that is invaluable to America's fighting force. We provide the human assets and support systems that make the U.S. military the world's premier fighting force," Graham said.

The lobbyist who sought the money for GenPhar was American Defense International, Inc. The former chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party, Van Hipp, Jr., now chairs ADI.

Look at all those threads. Woven together, they help define a Republican systemic culture of corruption. And the mentality of self-entitlement and greed that pervades the political system in general and the Republican hierarchal elites in particular is now a defining characteristic of U.S. governance. Millionaires, many of whom-- like Rick Perry, the likely GOP presidential nominee-- have made vast fortunes based solely on accepting bribes while in public office. Millionaires-- Fred Upton in western Michigan is a perfect example-- buy their offices and then relentlessly rig the system against their own constituents. Now a pack of selfish millionaires in Congress are sitting in judgement over Obama's proposal that millionaires' tax rates go up to that of ordinary working families' rates. It isn't asking half what should be asked, but these self-serving crooks and, in some cases-- California Congressman Darrell Issa comes right to mind-- career criminals, are screaming like stuck pigs. Vern Buchanan (R-FL) is hysterically opposed to making the tax rate fairer for millionaires. He's among the three richest Members of the House-- and, according to the new report from CREW, the most corrupt member of Congress.

Witness tampering, obstruction of justice, and bribery are all in a day’s work for the ethically challenged Rep. Vern Buchanan. 

The Sarasota congressman orchestrated an elaborate scheme that forced his employees to contribute to his campaign, ensuring they would be illegally reimbursed with corporate money. 

Doubling down on the criminal behavior, he attempted to bribe a former business partner with almost $3 million in hush money in a clumsy attempt to cover up the conspiracy.

In fact of the 20 richest Members of Congress, 10 are Republicans and, lo and behold, all ten are adamantly opposed to making the tax rate on millionaires fairer. That would be the aforementioned Issa (R-CA) and Buchanan (R-FL) plus Mike McCaul (R-TX), James Risch (R-ID), Gary Miller (R-CA), Bob Corker (R-TN), Diane Black (R-TN), Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ), Richard Berg (R-ND) and Kenny Marchant (R-TX), each "worth" somewhere between $13 million and $451 million, though it is likely that even the most impoverished of this group is worth well over $50 million. And they uniformly-- and adamantly-- oppose a fair tax rate. Is it a form of corruption? You're damn straight it is! And a creeping moral rot that pervades our entire political class.

This week, investigative journalist Lee Fang reported on another grotesque political scandal at the heart of the Republican Party power structure.

Late last week, FBI agents raided Jim Brulte’s home and lobbying office in connection to a corruption probe regarding the $102 million legal settlement between Rancho Cucamonga developer Colonies Partners LP and San Bernardino County in 2006. Prosecutors have been investigating the settlement, which they say was obtained through a conspiracy of bribery and extortion. Brulte, one of the most influential Republicans in Southern California and currently a lobbyist with the firm California Strategies, is also a former assemblyman and state senator who led both GOP caucuses while in office.

Already, former Board of Supervisors chairman Bill Postmus [long touted as the political heir to San Berdoo GOP capo Jerry Lewis] admitted accepting a $100,000 bribe from Colonies executive Jeff Burum. Prosecutors allege that the Colonies Partners’ lobbying strategy manipulated the San Bernardino County Taxpayers Association, the San Bernardino Young Republicans, and other bribes were made in connection to the settlement.

...Notably, FBI agents only raided Brulte’s California Strategies office in Fontana, California. ThinkProgress has discovered that during the time of the allegedly corrupt Colonies Partners settlement, Brulte conducted his lobbying business out of a suite owned by a sitting member of the legislature. In 2004, Brulte founded the Inland Empire office of California Strategies. Until last year, that lobbying shop operated out of an office space owned by current Republican Senate Leader, state Sen. Bob Dutton.

According to documents obtained by ThinkProgress, Brulte’s lobbying business shared the same office owned by Dutton’s consulting businesses at 10681 Foothill Blvd. Suite 340 in Rancho Cucamonga, California. In December 2004, shortly after Brulte finished his last term in the legislature, he began work for California Strategies at Dutton’s business address. A representative from California Strategies told ThinkProgress that the firm moved its Inland Empire office from Dutton’s office to the current location in Fontana last year “in April or May.”

Dutton, who now occupies Brulte’s seat in the legislature, has an ownership stake in a number of companies operating out of the same office suite in Rancho Cucamonga

...According to disclosures, Dutton’s “West End Investments” and his other firms have generated over a million dollars in income for the senator, although it is not clear what the firms actually provide in terms of business other than “real estate.”

Since he left elected office for work at California Strategies, Brulte has been rated almost every year by Capitol Weekly as one of the top “influence peddlers” and “power brokers” in the state. With Postmus accepting a plea bargain and speaking openly with prosecutors about what he knows, and the FBI raid on Brulte’s office, Brulte’s lobbying connections may soon open a new front in the case.

Dutton, presently the most powerful elected Republican in California, has avoided taint from the scandal so far. Although he has accepted $25,000 from the allegedly crooked developers in the Colonies Partners deal, Dutton hasn’t been directly associated with the scandal. However, this new information that Brulte lobbied out of Dutton’s personal office may change all of that.

Dutton sounds like he's been taking wealth building lessons from Rick Perry.

RON PAUL, BOB BARR AND JAN SCHNEIDER-- TRUE BELIEVERS TAKING ON THEIR PARTIES' CORRUPT ESTABLISHMENTS

Republican congressman Ron Paul of Texas is certainly not going to endorse John W. McCain, and it isn't likely that he'll endorse Barack Obama... or is it? On CNN yesterday he told Wolf Blinzter that he has no intention of endorsing a warmonger like McCain.

Having a Republican win the upcoming presidential election is “secondary” for Paul who is more interested in defending the Constitution, having the country go in what he considers the right direction, having a sound currency, and achieving balanced budgets. Paul parts ways with McCain over McCain’s support for the Iraq war, his approach to U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and his willingness to spend federal dollars to support military operations in Iraq.

Instead, Paul favors Sen. Barack Obama because of positions on foreign policy. “But that’s doesn’t mean that’s an endorsement,” Paul quickly added.

I mentioned yesterday that I wound up sitting next to a dedicated Paulista on a flight this week. He plans to write in Paul's name on his presidential ballot. I'd save McCain has no chance whatsoever of getting his vote and Obama has, maybe, a 20% chance. But Obama doesn't need it to win. McCain is unlikely to win even with it but without it... forget it.

And just as detrimental to a McCain run is the Libertarian candidate: Georgia ex-Republican congressman Bob Barr.

The possibility of a run by Barr has sent shudders through the mainstream of the Republican party.

Barr, who will probably not declare his intentions for several days, has already been labeled a "spoiler."

In an interview with the [Philadelphia] Inquirer, Barr dismissed those accusations as whining.

"The notion that Republicans see a third-party candidate as spoiling their chances simply illustrates the arrogance of the two-party system," Barr said.

Republicans may have good cause to worry.

A run by Barr could be to John McCain "what Ralph Nader was to Al Gore-- ruinous," wrote George Will in Newsweek. Some party experts believe Barr could siphon off essential conservative votes from Sen. John McCain, about whom many rightward voters have been less than enthusiastic.

Right-talking radio hosts-- Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham, and Ann Coulter-- have expressed reservations about McCain or have been downright dismissive.

The American Spectator editorialized last month that "conservatives see the choice of McCain or the Democrats as analogous to picking between being punched in the stomach or kneed in the groin."

Barr points to Ron Paul, as well as GOP Senators Chuck Hagel, John Sununu and Larry Craig-- one who is retiring honorably, one who is about to be defeated by a Democrat, and one who was caught toe-tapping in a men's room while picking up used toilet paper-- as examples of mainstream Republicans who are sick and tired of the Bush Regime's slide into neo-fascism. "What laid the groundwork for my epiphany was the result of six years of the Bush administration," explained Barr. "They claimed to be Republicans and for a smaller government. Instead, with a complicit Republican Congress, they moved to dramatically expand the size, power and scope of the federal government. I concluded that the party I had been associated with for decades was no longer that party I had joined and no longer had an interest in smaller government. They no longer had an interest in increasing individual liberty and showed no signs of changing in my lifetime... Since 9/11, there has been unprecedented growth in government power and the ascendancy of this notion that, because they are fighting terrorism, the government can do whatever it wants regardless of law... We have to be much more zealous in protecting ourselves against government power."

And Barr doesn't recognize McCain as a conservative or someone he could support. "His view of civil liberties is very much in the Bush administration mold. I have major disagreements with him. His position of a lengthy occupation of Iraq is well known. I would disagree with him there also... If my platform polls well, it will be because the voters contrast it with McCain and whatever Democrat senator wins the nomination. If my platform polls well, its because the agenda I espouse is preferable. By offering a choice, it's something the other candidates should embrace rather than whine about."

And speaking about third-party candidates, a lifelong Democrat and heroic progressive, Jan Schneider, has declared her candidacy for a seat in western Florida, just south of Tampa, that looked like it would have been a contest between an extreme right wing Republican incumbent, Vern Buchanan and a former Republican embraced by the Democrats' uber-corrupt Inside the Beltway Rahm Caucus. Jan was screwed out of the nomination in 2006 by shady dealings from Rahm Emanuel and Steny Hoyer who preferred the reactionary Chris Jennings, who-- following Emanuel's diktat of playing down the occupation of Iraq-- went on to lose to Buchanan, a race Schneider would have probably won. The Sarasota Herald-Tribune implies that by running Schneider could be a "spoiler." But she is the only candidate representing core progressive values and if anyone is a spoiler, it is Jennings, who should have run against Buchanan in a Republican primary.

"I've had it with both political parties," said Schneider, 60, who will be making her fourth try for the seat.

Schneider says she will run as an anti-war candidate dedicated to bringing the troops home.

...In 2004, Schneider beat Jennings in Democratic primary election, before losing to Rep. Katherine Harris.. Schneider said after the general election that Jennings cost her the race by forcing her to spend money in the primary that could have been used to beat Harris.

In 2006, Jennings turned the tables, beating Schneider soundly, before losing to Buchanan in the general election. Schneider said Jennings used distorted negative attacks against her to win the seat.

UPDATE: RON PAUL KNOWS WHICH WAY THE WIND IS BLOWING

Congressman Paul is predicting a win for Obama in November over his own party's pathetic and deceptive bag of wind.

PRIMARY BREWING FOR FLORIDA RIGHT WING LOON VERN BUCHANAN

Republican transsexual to take on far right nutcase in Florida?

Earlier today Sarasota, Florida city commissioners passed over the former Largo city manager in their search for a chief executive for their city. Steve Stanton-- now, after a successful operation, Susan Stanton-- came in third and was praised as "very committed, very attuned to the community" and "very qualified in regard to budget issues," according to Mayor Lou Ann Palmer. A Republican, Susan says she may run for Congress against Vern Buchanan, the far right extremist who was declared the winner after a highly irregular-- well, not highly irregular for Florida-- vote count.

In his few months in Congress, Buchanan-- another ethically challenged Republicrook looking to turn public office into a personal gold mine-- has managed to amass one of the most radical right voting records in the entire House-- even worse than the garden variety rubber stamp he promised to be.