Darin LaHood Is Not Ray LaHood

The special election to replace Republican scam artist Aaron Schock in IL-18 isn't until September 10, but the July 7 Republican primary in this weirdly gerrymandered district, which carefully skirts Peoria, Springfield and Bloomington to create a safe home for Republicans in central Illinois, is the key to who will follow Schock into Congress. And the overwhelming favorite is state Senator Darin LaHood, son of Ray LaHood, the mainstream conservative who preceded Schock as the district's congressman before serving as Barack Obama's Secretary of Transportation. His two GOP opponents are right-wing blogger Mike Flynn and an unemployed prison worker from Benson, Don Rients. LaHood isn't worried, not about the 2 Republicans or about whichever of the two underfunded Democrats winds up in the general.

This week, his father penned an op-ed for Time on how badly Congress (the Republican-controlled Congress) is wrecking America's prized infrastructure.

This week’s Amtrak accident is just the most recent in a long line of transportation tragedies. In 2007 in Minnesota, an eight-lane bridge collapsed into the Mississippi River. More than a dozen people died. It was horrifying, and for a moment it seemed like there might be a real commitment to repairing and investing in our infrastructure. But there was no outrage that the bridge was known to be “structurally deficient.” And no great infrastructure packages passed through Congress.

Then in 2013, a bridge in Washington State collapsed on a major thoroughfare to Canada. On a heavy-traffic holiday weekend, an oversized truck hit one of the bridge’s overhead tresses, and the impact caused the whole bridge to collapse. Miraculously no one died. Again, it felt like this time might be different. How could this great nation do nothing about a bridge built in 1955, one deemed “functionally obsolete,” one so fragile that the impact of one truck would bring the whole bridge down?

But that’s what we did. We did nothing. We didn’t demand action. Nothing changed.

... The federal gas tax, the main revenue source for the Highway Trust Fund, has not been raised since the early 1990s. The Highway Trust Fund is the big pot of money that builds and maintains our national highway system, and it is just days away from bankruptcy. In the more than 20 years we haven’t raised the gas tax, it has lost a third of its purchasing power. But highway maintenance needs haven’t reduced at all. At this point, America is basically one big pothole.

A 2013 report from Transportation for America found that more than 66,000 bridges are “structurally deficient.” That’s one in nine. The bridge that collapsed in Minnesota was one of them. The report also found that in 10 years, one in four bridges in the country will likely be structurally deficient.

The irony of letting our infrastructure slide into a state of disrepair for financial reasons, besides the fact that it is terribly unsafe, is that it is also fiscally unsound. Routine maintenance is much less expensive than enormous repairs or building a new bridge. When a municipality lacks funding and has to defer routine maintenance year after year, they end up with an expensive crisis on their hands.

Roads and highways aren’t the only piece of infrastructure starved by underfunding. Our cities are built on water systems that are a century old. The aviation sector relies on World War II era radar technology. And funding for public transportation, like Amtrak, is routinely cut to the bone by a fickle Congress more interested in a press release announcing they saved a buck than in investing in our country’s future.

Undeniable evidence is mounting, and a responsible Congress would have taken action by now and done something to rebuild America’s transportation infrastructure. But there is no vision or leadership coming out of Congress on this critical issue. To make the dramatic change we need in order to finance the infrastructure projects this country desperately needs Congress must increase the gas tax and explore new strategies to raise revenue and finance these projects. Instead, as the Highway Trust Fund is rapidly approaching bankruptcy, Congress will likely pass a short-term patch for no less than the 34th time in six years.

Congress is going to push our infrastructure to the point of disaster. Short-term patches, Band-Aids, and duct tape will not dramatically overhaul our transportation infrastructure systems. And we need nothing short of a dramatic overhaul. This country doesn’t work without roads and rails, pipes and ports that work, too. Infrastructure moves us and connects us, it keeps our economy going and when it works well, it keeps us safe and gives Americans a high quality of life. When we let it break down, it leads to crisis and tragedy. We need to get out of crisis-mode and invest in our future. The time for action is now.

I wonder if Ray's son Darin, a right-winger, and the voters of his old district, would accept such a commonsense, non-ideological approach. The fate of the Republican Party and the nation are at stake.

What Will Political Dysfunction Do To America's $1 Trillion Annual Tourism Industry?

The Administration thinks that by next weekend the relatable face of sequestration for thousands in the middle class will be painful airport travel. Long, long lines and miserable delays and inconvenience. Republicans, the s&m party, think it's their job to add pain and suffering to people's lives.

When I was president of Reprise, a division of AOLTimeWarner, we had several sleek private jets at our disposal. I spent a lot of time in New York and in London and flying privately, rather than hassling at an airport, was deliciously convenient. In all my years at the company, though, I never ordered up one of the planes-- not once. It was just too expensive. I always thought it was just stealing from the owners (the stock holders) and that the money would be better used in breaking a new artist. Don't get me wrong... when one of my colleagues was taking the plane and invited me along, I never turned it down. I loved it. It just was never going to come out of any Reprise budget. Once 2 presidents, a chairman, a CEO and a bevy of senior vice-presidents went on a month-long tour of our European affiliates. We went to Paris, Hamburg, Milan, Madrid, Dublin and London and I think I did side trips to Amsterdam, Brussels and Stockholm. Man, there are no words to describe that kind of convenience. The ease of travel was something to marvel at. But it must have cost a fortune.

The people who have the most to say about decisions like the Sequester have their own planes. They tell Boehner and Miss McConnell what they want done. The campaign the Administration is doing to give the Sequester a dysfunctional airport face is laughable to them. Will it matter to GOP backbenchers who start hearing from business travelers?

Ray LaHood is still Secretary of Transportation and he used to be a Republican congressman from Illinois. More than half the Republicans in Congress served with him. He's warning them that this is going to be bad. Friday he predicted chaos at the nation's (public) airports, primarily because thousands of FAA employees-- including air traffic controllers-- will be furloughed to save money. 

"This is very painful for us because it involves our employees, but it's going to be very painful for the flying public," LaHood said.

"Obviously, as always, safety is our top priority and we will never allow [more than] the amount of air travel we can handle safely to take off and land, which means travelers should expect delays," he added.

"Flights to major cities like New York, Chicago and San Francisco and others could experience delays of up to 90 minutes during peak hours because we have fewer controllers on staff."

..."At [the Department of Transportation], we will need to cut nearly $1 billion, which will affect dozens of our programs," he continued.

"Over $600 million of these cuts will need to come from the Federal Aviation Administration, the agency that controls and manages our nation's skies. As a result of these cuts, the vast majority of FAA's nearly 47,000 employees will be furloughed for approximately one day per pay period until the end of the fiscal year and, in some cases, it could be as many as two days."

LaHood said the FAA has begun preparing airlines and unions about the possibility of furloughs for FAA workers. But he said the effects of the cutbacks would be felt most by airline passengers.

LaHood said members of Congress would likely receive complaints from frustrated passengers who are dealing with flight delays.

"As a former member of Congress, I heard complaints all the time from my constituents when their flights were delayed or when their flights were canceled," he said. "Nobody likes a delay. Nobody likes waiting in line. None of us do."

LaHood acknowledged that the White House was seeking to gain a political advantage on congressional Republicans with his dire warning about air travel, even as he denied the administration was using scare tactics about sequestration.

"The idea that we're just doing this to create some kind of scare tactic is nonsense," LaHood said.  "We are required to cut a billion dollars. And if more than half of our employees are at the FAA... there has to be some impact. That's the reason we're announcing what we're announcing."

Tourism is likely to be hard hit as an industry in general. The $110 million dollar cut to the national parks system won't do much to help reduce the deficit but it will mean shuttered campgrounds, shorter seasons, road closings and reduced emergency services

Great Smoky Mountains National Park will close four campgrounds. The Grand Canyon National Park will shorten visitor center hours at the South Rim. Cape Cod National Seashore in Massachusetts will close its visitors center and restrict access to large sections of the Great Beach. And Yosemite and Yellowstone will delay summer road openings up to four weeks, according to the Coalition of National Park Service Retirees, which said it obtained the details from sources in the park service.

Conservative have always opposed the national park system anyway and in recent years have advocated to selling it off piece meal. And, over the years, friends of mine who have worked served on the House Foreign Affairs Committee have told me Republicans are generally contemptuous and mistrustful of anything foreign. They don't understand the role of foreign tourism on many American cities that cater to foreign visitors, like New York, L.A., Miami, Las Vegas, El Paso, San Antonio, Honolulu. U.S. State Department Consular offices around the world are already operating with serious backlogs of unprocessed visa applications. Sequestration would force a significant increase in wait times for these documents and ports of entry would also be affected, both in terms of the waiting time for passengers to clear immigration and customs, and in terms of the parts and goods imported into American markets. The net impact of these cuts are not going to save money, thy're going to cost money... and lots of it over a long period time and rippling through the economy.

Congress' 9% Approval Rating Goes Beyond Mere Partisan Obstructionism

A few weeks ago when former Republican Congressman Ray LaHood, first elected to the Illinois House in 1982 and to the U.S. Congress in 1994, announced he would be retiring as Secretary of Transportation, he sounded bitter. And his bitterness was directed at his former GOP colleagues in the House.

Responding to a question about why it was so difficult to get big infrastructure projects built right now, LaHood told a transportation conference that "some people don't want Obama to be successful."

"A big percentage of the Republicans that were elected this time came here to do zero, and that's what they've done," he said. Those lawmakers, he said, have obstructed other people who are trying to get things done.

..."Here we are almost 12 months from the election and there are some people in Congress-- look there are probably 40 people, 40 Republicans, elected to the House to come here to do nothing," Lahood said. "That's why they felt they were elected."

LaHood was apparently referring to tea party-aligned Republicans who are reluctant to compromise on their goal of reducing the size and power of the federal government.

"When I was elected in `94 we had a very reform-minded class, 82 new people, but they came here to do something, to solve problems," he said. "Almost always in the past when people have run for Congress, they ran for Congress on the opportunity to help solve the problems of America."

LaHood has been meeting with GOP lawmakers, trying to generate support for Obama's $447 billion jobs package, which Senate Republicans killed in a Tuesday night vote. House Republicans have introduced their own jobs plan, which doesn't include any of Obama's proposals.

Despite what he calls GOP obstruction, LaHood predicted Congress will pass a major transportation spending bill before next year's election.

"They know people are hurting and they know their popularity in their districts is not too good right now," he said. "You can't put people back to work with the same old slogans about cutting taxes and tax breaks for small businesses. That only goes so far."

You think? This week, polling showed the lowest rating for Congress in history-- a 9% approval. Boehner, Cantor, Ryan and their corrupt cronies have managed to do what no other House leadership team has ever achieved-- a single-digit approval rating.

Vermont's independent senator, Bernie Sanders, seems to think the problem isn't just the Republicans-- it's the corrupted system itself. And that system may have sucked up every Republican member, but more than a few Democrats are equally guilty. Watch:



What can you say? There's a lot of wisdom in this online spoof circulating the net lately. In case you missed it...

LOST

A woman in a hot air balloon realized she was lost. She lowered her altitude and spotted a man in a boat below. She shouted to him,

"Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don't know where I am."

The man consulted his portable GPS and replied, "You're in a hot air balloon, approximately 30 feet above ground elevation of 2,346 feet above sea level. You are at 31 degrees, 14.97 minutes north latitude and 100 degrees, 49.09 minutes west longitude.

"She rolled her eyes and said, "You must be an Obama Democrat."

"I am,"replied the man. "How did you know?"

"Well," answered the balloonist, "everything you told me is technically correct. But I have no idea what to do with your information, and I'm still lost. Frankly, you've not been much help to me."

The man smiled and responded, "You must be a Republican."

"I am," replied the balloonist. "How did you know?"

"Well," said the man, "you don't know where you are or where you are going. You've risen to where you are due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise you have no idea how to keep, and you expect me to solve your problem. You're in exactly the same position you were in before we met, but somehow, now it's my fault."

Let's keep at least ONE Independent in the Senate. If you would like to, you can contribute to Bernie Sander's reelection campaign here.

Is There A Republican Case FOR Healthcare Reform? And Is Bart Stupak Breaking The Law?

LaHood and Schock, havin' a party

Since there isn't a single Republican in the House or Senate who isn't too scared to death of Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh and that pack of far right media hyenas and their raucous, self-righteous followers to make the argument for meaningful healthcare reform, Obama's Republican Secretary of Transportation did it yesterday in the Chicago Tribune.

LaHood was a conservative Republican congressman, as partisan as the rest of them, although not notably sociopathic. He was elected to represent the strongly Republican central Illinois 18th CD in 1994, a district that has an R+5 PVI and that was one of only three in Illinois McCain won, albeit with only 50% of the vote. (In the 2006 Democratic wave year LaHood was re-elected with 67% of the vote.) LaHood campaigned for and voted for McCain. If he got into fights with his Republican colleagues, it was generally because he is a deficit hawk and resented them spending tax money like a bunch of drunken sailors. He calls himself "a fiscal conservative, an advocate for a smart, but restrained, government."

For those reasons and others, most people wouldn't expect me to be an advocate for comprehensive health care reform. But the truth is, I believe there is no bigger issue to solve and no better chance to solve it than now.

If I were still a member of Congress, I would proudly vote for the bill that President Barack Obama is championing and I would urge my colleagues to do the same, not because I don't believe in fiscal discipline, but because I do.

We do not need to look that far down the road to see the pain that failure to pass health care reform will cause. Americans of every background, class, race and political persuasion are suffering. We have the best health care system in the world, yet more than 40 million Americans lack access to it, a reality that is morally reprehensible. Health care is an essential, as important as food, water and shelter. Those who don't have it are left without the tools to survive.

In the coming days, Congress has a chance to change that. The bill that will be voted on will reduce the deficit by about $1 trillion over the next two decades, and will reduce waste, fraud and abuse in the health care system. It will slow the rate of growth in health care costs and put America back on the path toward fiscal sustainability.

The bill will give families and small business owners greater control over their own health care. It will expand coverage to more than 31 million Americans and will include tax credits to individuals, families and small businesses, giving them the same choices that members of Congress have to purchase private coverage. It will create state-based exchanges that will bring competition and transparency to insurance markets. And it will put in place common-sense rules of the road to hold insurance companies accountable and end some of the most outrageous practices of the insurance industry.

Never again will people be denied coverage because they have a pre-existing condition. Never again will insurance companies be able to raise rates unfairly-- like the 60 percent hikes expected in Illinois.

While the ultimate vote on health care may not be bipartisan, the ultimate bill certainly is.

There are several Republican ideas in the bill. It allows Americans to buy health insurance across state lines. It increases the bargaining power of small businesses by allowing them to pool together-- much like large corporations or labor unions-- to bargain for a better insurance rate. It gives states the flexibility to come up with an alternate health care plan, and it gives them resources to reform our tort system by developing new ways to deal with medical malpractice.

LaHood's plea to his former colleagues in Congress-- or the twerpy, cowardly little closet queen who won his seat, Adam Schock-- to seize "the opportunity to change the lives of their friends and neighbors for the better by voting for health care reform"-- will fall on deaf ears. I doubt even Ahn Cao (R-LA), the one Republican who voted for it the first time around, will vote for it again, even though the majority of Americans-- and certainly the majority of Americans in his congressional district-- want healthcare reform and reject Jim DeMint's tactic of using healthcare obstructionism to cripple Obama's presidency.

On the other hand, it looks like Bart Stupak's attempt to hold the entire nation's healthcare reform hostage (I'm told based on a sudden conversion to religious fanaticism due to his son's suicide, with Stupak's gun) is failing. As Rachel Maddow explained, the House leadership peeled away some of his support, which was largely garnered by using false GOP talking points about abortion funding, and then called Stupak's bluff and left him muttering darkly to himself on the sidelines. (Please consider contributing to Connie Saltonstall, the progressive woman standing up to him on his home turf by running a primary against him.)

Political quick hits (4): Who's out of the new administration, who's in, and who's in between?

by Ken

1. No room at the inn for Governor Dean

"Howard Dean was never afraid to challenge the established ways of the Democratic Party in Washington. That doesn't win you many friends in this town."

-- Joe Trippi, campaign manager for Howard Dean's 2004 presidential bid

Howard Dean always knew his time as chairman of the Democratic National Committee was going to end after this election. I find it hard to imagine that he would want to do such a thankless job any longer.

I guess the job hasn't been entirely thankless. Even washingtonpost.com's Chris Cillizza managed to come up with an impressive list of accomplishments in his "The Fix" piece today on Governor Dean's curious position as the Inauguration approaches: on the outside looking in. His 50-state strategy really did lay the groundwork for the resurgence of the party in places where it had been invisible as far back as anyone can recall, and in both concept and execution his 2004 presidential bid surely provided a framework for the Obama campaign. And Chris gave us the above quote from Joe Trippi.

Dean, it turns out, pitched himself for secretary of health and human services, and it seems to me that he was splendidly suited to the job. But there's that nasty current that he's not a "team player," in presumed contrast with HHS Sec'y-designate Tom Daschle, who is likely to team-play us into a corporatist version of health-care reform that Dean would never have stood still for. (He's not a team player, after all.)

Similarly, when we hear that Rahm Emanuel scorned Dean's refusal to engage in fund-raising, when all accounts I've heard indicate that he did a smashing job raising money for the DNC, isn't it likely that what we're really being told is that Dean didn't like fund-raising the way Master Rahm does it, in cahoots with the corporate bribers he's shaking down? And maybe that in distributing those funds Dean worried about the good of the party and the country rather than his own personal benefit and aggrandizement?

Of course, as we know, and let's say it all together now: Governor Dean isn't a team player. Am I the only one thinking it's maybe kind of a shame that it isn't his team the others are being recruited to play on?


2. Ray LaHood has President-elect Obama's, er, confidence -- or something

It turns out that we haven't been the only ones waiting to find out just what qualifications retiring Rep. Ray LaHood brings to the office of secretary of transportation -- beyond the nice things he has said about trains. Certain trains, anyway. (We know, for example, that he has no interest in the high-speed rail systems that are a transit mainstay in other parts of the world.) Our pal Al Kamen has been wondering too.

LaHood for Transportation? It Wasn't That Long a Stretch.

There was much surprise last week when President-elect Barack Obama selected outgoing Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) for secretary of transportation. After all, LaHood isn't an expert on transportation matters.

His district is pretty rural and not known for having great transportation problems -- save for when Capponi's Restaurant in Toluca closes on the weekends and diners head down the road to Minonk. Won't hardly see a traffic light for miles.

And okay, so maybe his congressional district isn't a passenger rail hub. (If you ask Amtrak for an itinerary from Washington to Peoria, the largest city in his district, you're offered a 17 1/2 -hour train ride to Indianapolis and then a four-hour wait for a bus to take you on a four-hour trip to the bus station at the Peoria airport.)

On the plus side, LaHood is on the House Appropriations Committee, so he knows how to spend money, he defends earmarks, and he's no doubt been to O'Hare Airport, so at least he's got air travel experience.

Still, there had been chatter for a while that LaHood was thinking of setting up shop at a law firm here in Washington when his term ends next month. So when word spread last week that incoming White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel had called LaHood on Tuesday to offer him the job, the cognoscenti were taken aback.

But maybe they shouldn't have been. Obama did, after all, pledge to put Republicans in his Cabinet. We're told that when Obama and LaHood ran into each other on the House floor this past spring, LaHood went over to him and Obama said, "You're at the top of my list." Earlier, after Obama was elected to the Senate in 2004 and was planning to visit Peoria, he reached out to LaHood, who helped set up his schedule. Then there were those bipartisan lunches with Emanuel.

In retrospect, seems pretty obvious that LaHood was a solid contender for a top Cabinet post.

3. Why are the wingnuts targeting Hilda Solis?

People who pay attention to such things are chattering today about how Labor Secretary-designate Hilda Solis, an outspoken liberal from California, has been drawing fire from the Drum-Beating Right like no other Obama appointee this side of Attorney General-designate Eric Holder.

It's worthy of note that neither Solis nor Holder has the kind of political base that political "players" might be afraid to outrage. What's more, by coincidence no doubt, neither is what you would call a white male. Still, this doesn't explain why they would be automatic targets -- just why the Right wouldn't have much apprehension about targeting them.

The best guess in Solis's case seems to be her strong support for the Employee Free Choice Act. As Howie and I have noted frequently, EFCA, which if passed would greatly increase the opportunity of workers who want union representation to have it, not only enrages the hard-core anti-union Right but actually scares them. The fear is that a dramatic upsurge in union organizing (and I'm hearing "conservative" estimates of adding 20 million union workers to the rolls in the first year), which would likely produce large-scale infusions of cash into Democratic coffers. As Nevada Sen. John Ensign famously put it, "It would make Republicans the minority party for the next 40 to 50 years."

A more general theory I'm hearing is that the targeting of Solis is simply another stage in the Right's all-out war on labor unions.


4. And speaking of Eric Holder --

The wingnuts will have to work just a bit harder to obstruct his nomination. David Ingram reports on BLT (The Blog of LegalTimes):

Prosecutor in Marc Rich Case Endorses Holder

One of the prosecutors in the criminal case against commodities trader Marc Rich says that Eric Holder Jr. shouldn’t be disqualified from the job of attorney general because of his involvement in Rich’s pardon.

In a letter released today by the Senate Judiciary Committee, James Comey endorses Holder as President-elect Barack Obama’s choice for the nation’s top law enforcement official. Comey was in charge of the Rich case from 1987 to 1993 when he was an assistant U.S. attorney in the Southern District of New York.

Comey later served as a U.S. attorney and then deputy attorney general -- two positions that Holder has also held -- and Comey wrote that his Justice Department service reinforced his opposition to the Rich pardon.

“From that experience, I have come to believe that Mr. Holder’s role in the Rich and [Rich co-worker Pincus] Green pardons was a huge misjudgment, one for which he has, appropriately, paid dearly in reputation,” Comey wrote to Judiciary’s Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Ranking Member Arlen Specter (R-Pa.).

The letter continues:

Yet I hope very much he is confirmed. I know a lot of good people who have made significant mistakes. I think Mr. Holder’s may actually make him a better steward of the Department of Justice because he has learned a hard lesson about protecting the integrity of that great institution from political fixers. I’m not suggesting errors of judgment are qualification for high office, but in this case, where the nominee is a smart, decent, humble man, who knows and loves the Department and has demonstrated his commitment to the rule of law across an entire career, the error should not disqualify him. Eric Holder should be confirmed as Attorney General.

Jim Comey, you'll recall, is one of the legal good guys -- possibly the only person to serve with honor in a position of authority in the Bush Justice Dept. He actually came out of his service with his reputation not only intact but actually enhanced.

Let me add a reminder that the charge against Rich in connection with the Rich pardon is almost always incorrectly made. He did not in fact give a "neutral leaning towards favorable" recommendation. What he said was that he was "neutral, learning towards favorable if there were foreign policy benefits that would be reaped by granting the pardon," based on information he had that the Israeli prime minister was supporting the pardon. The colleague who provides this reminder comments, "That strikes me as a big 'if,' especially since the GOP has spent the last eight years telling us that the President's view of foreign policy is ultimate trump card in policy debates."

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ANOTHER MISSED OPPORTUNITY FOR A HOUSE PICK UP? IL-18 (PEORIA)

After 7-term Republican Ray LaHood (IL-18) announced he was retiring from Congress last summer there were all kinds of promising Democrats' names floated. The Peoria-based district, which hasn't had a Democratic congressman since 1917, has a Republican +5 PVI. LaHood won re-election in 2006 with 67% and 70% in 2004. Bush beat Kerry with 58% and the floated names gradually floated away. At one point the DCCC annointed former Indiana Pacers coach Dick Versace, a horrible idea worthy of the same clueless DCCC that saddled the Democratic caucus with mediocre ex-football player Heath Shuler. By early December-- after the November filing deadline-- Versace dropped out "due to unforseen personal circumstances." That was the good news; the band news is that the Democrats were unsure how to fill the slot. They managed to-- but badly.

The county Democratic Party chairmen got together and appointed a replacement, Colleen Callahan. Several people thought it might have been a better idea to actually appoint a Democrat to run against Republican state Rep. Aaron Schock. What caused them to question the Kickapoo farm broadcaster's Democratic bona fides was that everyone in town remembers her supporting Republicans. In 2006, for example, she hosted a fundraiser for LaHood. And she freely admits she voted for LaHood to boot.

She has no issues on her website-- conservative Democrats never do-- but she came out against the war in Iraq the other day. I never bet money against a Democrat, but this is one race I might consider with a... more flexible attitude.

REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL RETIREMENTS ACCELORATING

The cascade of Midwest Republican congressional retirement announcements this month is great news for DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen. CVH actually took on a Republican to win his own Maryland seat but it was a tough race, and not every Democrat has a helpful state legislature to gerrymander a district around the edges. Van Hollen knows that the surest bet for changing a seat from red to blue is for the red candidate to disappear-- either through retirement or prison.

Mary Jo Kilroy was likely to defeat Deborah Pryce next year in a second head to head match up, which may have had something to do with Pryce's "graceful" departure decision. It isn't as clear that John Laesch would have overtaken badly damaged put still popular-- at least among Republicans and low-information voters-- Planet Denny Hastert. My guess is that John would have come much closer to winning, more in the 45-50% range, setting Hastert up for a more likely defeat-- or face-saving retirement-- in 2010. Instead, Hastert will save himself the death by 1,000 cuts and do his face saving while he's still vaguely ahead-- although John took a big bite out of him last year. Now voters in IL-14 won't have the added complexity of a sentimental incumbency to deal with. They can just decide if they want a real change-- in terms of Iraq, medical care, fairness, etc-- or if they want more of the same failed, even catastrophic, policies. John Laesch and his positive, can-do message of hope and change and a better America is likely to beat either of the two far right Republican extremists vying for Hastert's seat. (John first has to contend with a rich Blue Dog who is trying to buy the Democratic nomination.)

Even less likely to have gone down to defeat is Hastert ally Ray LaHood in west-central Illinois (IL-18, Peoria). But like many Americans, LaHood has had enough. He's already announced his retirement plans. But with LaHood out of the way and a strong Democratic year shaping up across the Midwest, IL-18 will be in play. Several faceless more-of-the-same rubber stamp Republican zombies have already appeared on the scene to claim the seat, State Rep. Aaron Schock and former Peoria City councilman John Morris being two of the best known. Lurking are State Rep. David Leitch and Little LaHood, his son Darren.

When LaHood Sr. announced his plans, many in the district expected State Senator John Sullivan, a Blue Dog type Democrat, to jump in. He's since demurred. Another frequently mentioned possibility is Peoria County state's attorney Kevin Lyons. But today the well-respected chief circuit judge, Richard Grawey, said he is considering the run. "As a judge, I think I have a good reputation in town for fairness and honesty. I think it's a wide-open primary. It's definitely a winnable race for a Democrat." Other Democrats considering the race include former state Rep Bill Edley and state appeals judge Sue Myerscough.

Congressional Quarterly reports this morning that two more old Republicans, James Saxton (NJ) and C.W. Bill Young (FL) are inching towards retirement. Young is probably more responsible for the tragedy that befell our wounded military vets at Water Reed Hospital than anyone else in Congress. He knew and he consciously covered up for the Bush Regime. This makes him more politically vulnerable than he's ever been before-- and in a district that has been trending distinctly purple.


UPDATE: TONY SNOW AND OTHER REPUBLICAN HACKS FROM THE REGIME ARE ALSO RESIGNING

They've done their damage, wrecked our country, and now they're scurrying away like rats from the SS Bush. Not just Rove and Hastert, but dozens of Regime functionaries. Tony Snow made his announcement today. Rove was earlier in the week. Hastert is up tomorrow. Many more will follow. Hopefully the long arm of the law won't let them all slip away.

TWO CONGRESSIONAL RETIREMENTS IN ILLINOIS-- AND THAT'S BEFORE PLANET DENNY HASTERT WEIGHS IN

Hard to believe he beat Denny Hastert to the punch, but Ray LaHood, a longtime Hastert ally, announced this morning that his 7 terms in Congress have been enough. The district leans pretty Republican but a moderate Democrat, like State Senator John Sullivan, could possibly pull off an upset, especially in the kind of anti-GOP shaping up for 2008. Among the others who might try for the seat are Democratic Peoria County state's attorney Kevin Lyons, LaHood's son, Darren, and a pair of Republican state Reps, Aaron Schock and David Leitch. Another possible retirement is more complicated and I asked a real Illinois political expert to give us a hand with this one.

When it comes to the intricacies of Illinois politics few are as astute as Larry Handlin, a PhD candidate in Political Science at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri. His 4 year old blog, ArchPundit, is the first stop for anyone looking for the inside scoop on Illinois politics. When I heard that Luis Gutierrez might be retiring from Congress I asked Larry to handicap the Democrats who are already vying to replace him. His report:

The race to replace Luis may well include Luis Gutierrez (IL-4) himself. In March, Gutierrez confirmed he would retire from Congress at the end of this term touching off a scramble for the seat. One of the biggest questions is will he really retire. His initial desire to retire seemed to revolve around an interest in challenging Richard Daley for Mayor of Chicago. He chose not to run and he still seemed content to retire, but Laura Washington expresses many people's opinions that he might not be ready to go, especially with immigration reform not completed.

While he would have faced no serious opposition if he had run again, deciding to get back in the race would be difficult. Already candidates have amassed fairly large war chests to take him on and he's always been an anemic fundraiser to say the least. He also was delinquent in DCCC dues for some time during the 2006 cycle. He blamed poor fundraising on the nature of his district, but his would be successors are proving him wrong. He also has had some scandals pop up that raise several questions.

Already three announced candidates have raised nearly $1 million for the primary.  Leading the pack is 1st Ward Alderman Manny Flores with $478,029 raised in the last quarter alone. Right behind him is 22nd Ward Alderman Rick Munoz with $310,706. And third is Cook County Commissioner Roberto Maldonado with $192,857.

Other likely candidates include 25th Ward Alderman Danny Solis, State Representative Susana Medoza and 12th Ward Alderman George Cardenas.


The question of electability isn't an issue since the District is safely Democrat. In both 2000 and 2004 the District provided 79 percent of the votes for Gore and Kerry with a Cook Partisan Index of +31 D. No, that's not a typo. The percentage of Hispanic origin is just under 75 percent though the voting population is a significantly lower percentage.

It's safe to say the candidates are generally close on national political issues with the key differences residing along how close to Richard Daley and the Chicago Democratic Machine. Even including those who are Daley allies there are degrees of difference that provide an important understanding of how the race may play out.

Munoz and Flores have strong reputations as reformers having both defeated candidates backed by the Hispanic Democratic Organization (HDO). HDO is strongly aligned with Mayor Richard Daley and two leaders of the organization have been indicted by US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald for participating in patronage schemes throughout Chicago city government. 
 
Of the two, Munoz is considered less likely to back large developments as an Alderman and less likely to compromise, while Flores has worked to provide several large developments in his Ward and  willing to compromise and work with anyone to achieve legislation. Mostly, they are aligned with each other on most major issues including reform.

Close to having the same kind of anti-HDO credibility is Susana Mendoza, a State Representative who has fought with HDO every campaign. Her primary disadvantage is being a State Representative does not provide nearly the same base of support as being an Alderman. 

Maldonado has run an independent course not being close to HDO, but also not having had to go to war with them. He's been close to Gutierrez over the years and though he had some questions raised about patronage hires, he's largely seen as clean if not as dynamic as the younger Munoz and Flores.

Solis has been considered Daley's strongest Hispanic ally and was long backed by HDO, to have them switch their support in the 2007 election. Solis won and Daley supported him, but his ties to HDO were severed. He was one of the Alderman who defected from Daley and voted for the Big Box ordinance which required a higher wage to be paid by Big Box stores such as Walmart. After Daley vetoed the legislation, Solis switched his vote and helped Daley sustain the veto. 

Four of the five candidates discussed have a reform pedigree with Munoz and Flores perceived as standouts for their progressive politics and grassroots campaigning. Maldonado has a lot of deep community ties and while he is more low key and has some ties to the regular machine, he's respected by most everyone.

Solis is a machine candidate. Then there is George Cardenas who isn't just a machine candidate, but a machine hack. He might not qualify as the worst hack tied to HDO, he is a perfect example of the typical hack. He also switched his vote on the Big Box bill after Daley's veto and was challenged by the Chicago Federation of Labor for doing so.

Cardenas' reelection campaign was not only strongly backed by HDO, but Cardenas employed Al Sanchez, who was indicted in March on corruption charges related to his leadership role in HDO. 

Others may yet enter the race, but the danger is that with four decent to great candidates, the vote will be split providing Cardenas a victory, the worst possible outcome. The difficulty is for progressives and independents there are four decent candidates to choose from. 

Of the four, the intangibles are hard to gauge. Mendoza is probably the weakest in terms of long term prospects of being a leader in Congress. Maldonado is quieter than Munoz or Flores, but also deeply tied to his community and a hard working representative. Maldonado is the type of candidate who gets ignored by those on the outside looking in, but has many of the traits the community may appreciate.

Flores and Munoz are the most dynamic and most likely to take on a leadership role for progressive causes in Congress. And there is the key difference-- how will they do it. Munoz is far more likely to take strong stands and less likely to compromise. Flores is probably the best at reaching across diverse groups and finding compromises while still remaining progressive.

RAY LaHOOD (R-IL) RESIGNING FROM CONGRESS TO GO BACK TO COLLEGE?

Although many of the urban Democratic incumbents in Chicago swept to re-election victories with 80% or more of the vote, Illinois Republicans had a much harder time in 2006. No seats changed hands, although Democrats made headway in several Republican strongholds. One place where Democrats made no headway was in IL-18 (Peoria), home of Ray LaHood, the Republican who wracked up the biggest GOP margin in the state (67%). Today Robert Novak confirmed the rumor that LaHood will to leave Congress if he is offered the presidency of Bradley College, his alma mater.

Although LaHood fancies himself "an independent voice" (he was one of only 3 Republicans who refused to sign Gingrich's Contract With America), his voting record has been pure rubber stamp Republican throughout the Bush Regime.

Born in 1945 and elected to the House in 1994, LaHood only has a B.A.-- but we are talking about Bradley College here, not Yale or the University of Chicago, so he probably will get the gig. It's no secret that he hasn't been a happy camper in Congress since the Democrats took over in January. In fact, he was one of the so-called "moderates" who went and bitched to Bush at the White House a few weeks ago-- and then continued rubber stamping everything Bush and the Republican leadership wanted. LaHood is the day before yesterday's news-- a McCain supporter-- and he's smart to want to get out of Congress before people actually laugh at him publicly when he walks down the street.