Not Much Of A Wave, But The House Did Change Hands, So There's That

Devolution of the Star Child

Democrats winning the House means there will be an effective check on Trump's worst authoritarian tendencies. It also kills the Republican Party's ambitions to repeal the Affordable Care Act and further eviscerate the social safety net. So how many seats did the Democrats pick up? We don't know yet because so many seats-- and not just in California-- are still uncalled. Here's my best guesses on how this turns out-- state by state.

Alabama

Nothing happened; nothing ever happens.

Alaska

And Don Young was reelected, after a brief scare from Alyse Galvin, an independent running as a Democrat, whatever that means.

Arizona

A quasi-Democrat, New Dem Ann Kirkpatrick won the Tucson-based seat Martha McSally gave up and, as expected, Sinema's Phoenix seat was won by former Phoenix mayor Greg Stanton. He won't be any good, but he'll be a lot better than Sinema. So that's one upgrade.

Arkansas

The Little Rock seat, where the DCCC hoped to elect some Blue Dog-- and spent half a million in the attempt-- was a bust. Republican incumbent French Hill hung on in the R+7 district, beating Clarke Tucker 128,211 (53%) to 108,835 (45%).

California

CA-01- GOP incumbent Doug LaMalfa beat progressive Democrat Audrey Denney 110,236 (56.1%) to 86,137 (43.9%)

CA-04- GOP incumbent Tom McClintock beat Democrat Jessica Moore, 120,601(55.3%) to 97,345 (44.7%)

CA-10- This one is too close to call but, with all precincts reporting Jeff Denham leads Democratic challenger Josh Harder 56,701 (50.6%) to 55,414 (49.4%), and it may be a week or so before we know who won.

CA-21- David Valadao successfully defended his seat against a weak challenger, TJ Cox, betting him-- in a disgracefully low turnout election-- 35,416 (53.7%) to 30,577 (46.3%). This is a 73% Latino district. The Democratic Party needs to do some work here.

CA-22- Devin Nunes beat conservative Democratic challenger Andrew Janz 75,111 (55.8%) to 59,528 (44.2%).

CA-25- Democratic challenger Katie Hill seems to have edged far right GOP incumbent Steve Knight 83,662 (51.3%) to 79,545 (48.7%).

CA-39- Republican Young Kim looks like she's beating ex-Republican self-funder and lottery winner Gil Cisneros-- the DCCC's worst recruit-- in the open Orange County/L.A. seat 74,904 (51.4%) to 70,928 (48.6%).

CA-45- Mimi Walters is ahead of Katie Porter 94,998 (51.7%) to 88,765 (48.3%) with all precincts reporting; a major disappointment.

CA-48- Harley Rouda looks like he beat Putin's favorite congressman, Dana Rohrabacher. With all precincts in, Rouda has 91,750 votes (50.7%) to Rohrabacher's 89,068 (49.3%).

CA-49- It looks like Democrat Mike Levin will replace Darrell Issa, having won the San Diego/Orange County seat and beating weak GOP candidate Diane Harkey 76,135 (52.4%) to 69,031 (47.6%).

CA-50- Out on bail, proud bigot Druncan Hunter showed what his constituents are made. They reelected him 82,379 (54.3%) to Ammar Campa-Najjar's 69,244 (45.7%). Revenge will be when he goes to prison and Darrell Issa steps in to "represent" them.

I'll leave the 10th district out of this and guess that the Democrats have picked up 3 seats, less than anyone expected.

Colorado

The only strongly contested House race, for the suburban Denver 6th district (PVI is D+2), was won by conservative Democrat Jason Crow, who beat GOP incumbent Mike Coffman 144,422 (53.1%) to 120,674 (44.3%).

Connecticut

The only seriously contested House race was for the open 5th district, where Democrat Jahana Hayes beat Republican Manny Santos 140,886 (55.9%) to 110,946 (44.1%).

Delaware

See Alabama

Florida

That was pretty miserable and we looked at it district by district last night. The Democrats picked up two very blue districts that had been in GOP hands. That was all.

Georgia

Nothing happened in the congressional races. [UPDATE: Oops!]

Hawaii

See Alabama

Idaho

See Alabama

Illinois

Illinois voters came through for the Democratic Party by winning 2 Republican-held seats. Sean Casten beat Peter Roskam 156,346 (52.8%) to 139,667 (47.2%) and Lauren Underwood beat Republican incumbent Randy Hultgren 142,261 (51.9%) to 131,819 (48.1%). Abby Finkenauer ousted Rod Blum 50.9% to 46.0%. And Cindy Axne beat David Young 49.0% to 47.5%.

Indiana

Nothin'

Iowa

Although Steve King managed to hold on-- far more narrowly than he ever expected-- the Iowa delegation goes from 3 Republicans and one Democrat to 3 Democrats and 1 Republican.

Kansas

The DCCC lost with their Blue Dog recruit, Paul Davis, despite having spent-- between themselves and Pelosi's PAC (and Bloomberg's PAC)-- $4,161,728. But Congress will get its first transsexual woman, Sharice Davids ousting Kevin Yoder in KS-03-- 164,253 (53.3%) to 136,104 (44.2%).

Kentucky

The only serious race in the state was a disappointment. Although Amy McGrath outperformed 2016 levels by 19 points, she failed to oust Andy Barr, who beat her 51.0% to 47.8%.

Louisiana

See Alabama

Maine

With 84.5% of precincts reporting, Poliquin is leading Jared Golden 121,727 (46.0%) to 121,337 (45.9%). The state has ranked choice voting so I'm guessing Jared Golden will be replacing Poliquin in the House. We should know in about a week. Under the new system--and this will be the first federal election it will be used in-- adopted by Mainers in two statewide ballot questions, the people who voted for independents Tiffany Bond and Will Hoar will have their the second and third-place choices redistributed to either Poliquin or Golden and the totals will be retabulated until one of the candidates receives at least 50 percent of the vote. Poliquin has already said he might challenge the results of the election in court if ranked-choice voting system costs him the election, as is likely.

Maryland

The DCCC allowed a crooked multimillionaire, David Trone to buy the open 6th district seat for $15,983,172 of his own, having lost the 8th district in 2016 after he spent $13,414,225. Other than that... See Alabama.

Massachusetts

Lori Trahan (D) won the 3rd district open seat with 61.9% and the other open seat (MA-07) was won by Ayanna Pressley, who ran unopposed.

Michigan

There were 4 hot races. First and foremost, the open MI-13 seat (Detroit) was won in a massive landslide by progressive champion Rashia Tlaib-- with 85.5% of the vote, despite a last minute attempt by the venal Detroit establishment to derail her. Haley Stevens won the open MI-11 seat winning massively in Wayne County and well-enough in the Oakland County part of the district. She beat Trump-endorsed multimillionaire Len Epstein 52.1% to 44.9%. New Dei Elissa Slotkin ousted GOP incumbent Mike Bishop in MI-08 (running up a gigantic majority in Ingham County while holding down losses in the Oakland and Livingston county parts of the district) 50.6% to 46.8%. The DCCC, though, was foiled in it's attempt to beat Tim Walberg in MI-07 with Blue Dog Gretchen Driskell. She lost big in Monroe and Jackson counties, the two biggest, while not doing well enough in Washtenaw and Eaton to overcome Walberg's majorities. He beat her 158,885 (53.8%) to 136,410 (46.2%). The only other Michigan district that looked alive was Matt Longjohn's race to replace Fred Upton. Although Longjohn won Kalamazoo by a lot he fell short in Allegan, Van Buren and Berrien counties by too much. Upton beat him 147,437 (50.2%) to 134,069 (45.7%)

So... +2

Minnesota

There was a lot of action here. First off, Tim Walz ran for governor (and won) but left a tough seat for Dems-- MN-01, which has an R+5 PVI. It's too close to call but doesn't look good. Republican Jim Hagedorn is leading Democrat Dan Feehan 146,202 (50.2%) to 144,891 (49.8%). New Dem Angie Craig beat Republican incumbent Jason Lewis 52.8% to 47.2% and another New Dem, Dean Phillips, beat Erik Paulsen, also a GOP incumbent, The PVIs of the 2 districts are R+2 (Craig) and D+1 (Phillips). Keith Ellison-- who elected Attorney General in a very rough race, beating Doug Wardlow 49.0% to 45.1%-- is being replaced by Ilhan Omar, a super progressive, who beat Republican Jennifer Zielinski 267,690 (78.2%) to 74,437 (21.8%). Crooked Blue Dog Collin Peterson hung on again, 52.1% to 47.9% but Republican Pete Stauber beat Democrat Joe Radinovich 50.7% to 45.2% in the open 8th district. Radinovich ran up a big majority in St Louis County, but not enough to offset Stauber's majorities in the 3 smaller counties, Crow Wing, Chisago and Itasca. It's an R+4 district. So we see two Blue to Red flips in Minnesota and Red to Blue flips, cancelling each other other. Net Zero.

Mississippi

See Alabama

Missouri

Nada. As expected, Cort VanOstran couldn't pull off an upset win in the R+8 district, not even winning the St. Louis county parts of the district. Ann Wager was re-elected 51.3% to 47.1%. He should try again in 2020.

Montana

Although Tester held the Senate seat, about 20,000 people who voted for him forgot to vote for Kathleen Williams. She lost to Greg Gianforte 236,379 (52.0%) to 205,911 (45.3%).

Nebraska

The great progressive hope for Nebraska, Kara Eastman, was betrayed by the DCCC at every turn because they hated that she beat their favorite Blue Dog in the primary. Because of them, Don Bacon keeps his seat with 51.6% of the vote. I always say, the Democrats would do better if there was no DCCC.

Nevada

This actually was wave-country with Nevadans electing a Democratic governor and replacing Dean Heller with Jacky Rosen in the Senate-- as well as wins for 2 Democrats (in open blue seats), fending off Trumpist nut Danny Tarkanian in one and plain old nut Cresent Hardy in the other. Steven Horsford will be back in Congress, as will socialite Susie Lee (New Dem). Net Zero.

New Hampshire

As expected Chris Pappas, an openly gay Democrat, beat Eddie Edwards an openly black Republican-- 53.7% to 44.9%-- holding the open Carol Shea Porter seat. Net Zero.

New Jersey

NJ-02 is sending the state Senate's most conservative Democratic member to Congress. Blue Dog Jeff Van Drew won with a much smaller majority than anyone expected-- just 52%, winning all 4 counties in the district.

NJ-03 is too close to call but GOP incumbent Tom MacArthur leads Andy Kim 136,408 (49.8%) to 134,093 (48.9%). MacArthur, a multimillionaire put $1.4 million of his own into the race.

NJ-07- Tom Malinowski edged GOP incumbent Leonard Lance by about 7,000 votes, 50.5% to 48.0%, winning the two biggest counties, Somerset and Union, while losing the Morris County and very red Hunterdon parts of the district.

NJ-011 was an open seat flip, with Blue Dog Mikie Sherrill beating some Republican guy 56.2% to 42.7%. She outraised him $7,574,500 to $1,388,799. On top of that, Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC, which supports right-of-center Democrats, kicked in $2,216,132 and Pelosi's PAC kicked in another $1,591,971. The NRCC and Ryan's SuperPAC ignored the race.

Net: +4

New Mexico

Rep. Stevan Pearce ran for governor (and was defeated handily), leaving open the 2nd district. The DCCC backed a conservative Blue Dog, Xochitl Torres Small, and with 95% of the precincts counted, she's losing to Republican Yvette Herrell by about 2,000 votes, 50.5% to 49.5%. [UPDATE: With that last 5% counted... Xochitl Torres Small became Congresswoman-elect Xochitl Torres Small. The final vote: 99,441 to 96,715... 50.7% to 49.3%.]

New York

Let's start with Long Island. The DCCC backed a conservative multimillionaire, Perry Gershon for Lee Zeldin's seat. Gershon self-funded to the tune of $1,843,746, spending almost a million dollars more than Zeldin. The SEIU and Pelosi put about $700,000 in to help him but he lost with 46.4% of the vote. Next door in Peter King's district (still under the protection of Steve Israel), Liuba Grechen Shirley, a progressive, did slightly better without any outside spending at all. She took 46.7%. Too bad the establishment hates progressives so much. Shirley might have won with that $700,000.

NY-11 was kind of a shocker. No one expected Blue Dog Max Rose to beat GOP incumbent Dan Donovan-- but all the negativity from the primary thrown at Donovan by Michael "Mikie Suits" Grimm, hurt Donovan badly enough for Rose to take him out 52.8-46/8%. Rose ran up a huge majority in the Brooklyn part of the district but also won, narrowly, in the Staten Island part. Nate Silver:

NY-19 was another surprise flip. Voters reacted badly to all the racism the GOP injected into the race and Antonio Delgado beat Republican incumbent John Faso 122,644 (49.8%) to 117,029 (47.6%).

NY-21- Republican Elise Stefanik was reelected 56.7-41.8%.

NY-22- Blue Dog Anthony Brindisi narrowly bested Trumpist incumbent Claudia Tenney by about a thousand votes, 50.3% to 49.7%.

NY-24- Another DCCC fuck-up, allowing Republican John Katko to keep his seat against progressive Dana Balter who the DCCC hated because she beat their corporate shill in the primary. Katko spent $2,287,569 to Balter's $1,733,270, with the DCCC only spending $61,809 in the district, By the time Pelosi came in, in the last 2 weeks, with $1,362,976 it was too late in the game and Katko won 53.1% to 46.9%... in a D+3 district where Obama won twice and even Hillary-- after losing to Bernie-- managed to beat Trump 48.9% to 45.3%.

NY-27- Nate McMurray has requested a recount for the 132,402 (49.5%) to 129,594 (48.4%) loss to Chris Collins, currently out on bail. Again, the DCCC's hatred of progressives prevented them from helping McMurray. Collins spent $1,323,723 to McMurray's $490,677 and a DCCC campaign about Collins' arrest by the FBI on insider trading would have easy won the race for McMurray. McMurray's statement this afternoon:

This isn’t even yet a recount. We haven't even had an official count yet. In our democracy, every single vote matters. There are over 18,000 votes that have not yet been counted, between absentee, emergency, and affidavit ballots. If this were Election Day, we would still be holding tight. We will continue to count each and every ballot to ensure every voter in this district is heard.

“With only 2,800 votes separating us, this race is too close to call. There are too many voters who have not yet had their say. We are fighting to make sure every vote is counted because every vote counts.

I believe that the hardworking families of this district are ready to reject the stale and ineffective tactics of partisanship politics, put country before party, and turn the page from Chris Collins’ self-serving chapter in our region’s history. We must finish counting ballots so we can finally get to work to make Washington and fixing a rigged system that both Republicans and Democrats agree is hopelessly broken.

North Carolina

The DCCC had high hopes but lost all three races they got involved with:

• NC-02- GOP incumbent George Holding held his seat against Linda Foreman 51.4% to 45.7%
• NC-09- Blue Dog Dan McCready lost to Trumpist crackpot Mark Harris 49.4% to 48.8%, about 2,000 votes, despite McCready outspending him 4 to 1 and despite about $1.2 million between the DCCC and Pelosi.
• NC-13- Ted Budd beat Blue Dog Kathy Manning 51.6% to 45.5%

North Dakota

See Alabama

Ohio

Nuthin'-- DCCC tried in OH-01 with Aftab Preval but came upon short, 51.8 % to 46.4%. The only other district where there was a real shot given for a Dem was the re-run between Troy Balderson and Danny O'Connor. Balderson beat him 171,757 (51.6%) to 156,863 (47.1%)-- worse than the August special election numbers when less than 2,000 votes separated the two and Balderson won with 50.1% to O'Connor's 49.3%.

Oklahoma

One of the big shocks was Democrat Kendra Horn ousting GOP incumbent Steve Russell 121,013 (50.7%) to 117,725 (49.3%). She lost the Pottawatomie and Seminole parts of the district but did well enough in OK City to retire Russell. At least the wave worked somewhere! Russell was so sure of himself that the allowed her to out-spend him 2 to 1. The only significant outside money came at the last minute from Bloomberg-- $429,664 that put her over the top.

Oregon

See Alabama

Pennsylvania

Hot bed of activity!

PA-01- Massively outspent by Scott Wallace ($11,760,243 to $2,780,210) GOP incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick still held on in this blue-leaning district where Hillary beat Trump 49.1% to 47.1%, beating Wallace 168,841 (51.3%) to 160,098 (48.7%).

PA-05- Mary Scanlon (D) beat Pearl Kim (R) 65.1% to 34.9%, a big flip.

PA-06- Chrissy Houlahan (D) beat Greg McCauley (R) 58.8% to 41.2%, another big flip.

PA-07- Susan Wild (D) beat Marty Nothstein (R) 53.4% to 43.5%, another big flip.

PA-11- One of the best run grassroots campaigns anywhere wasn't enough to overcome the massive GOP registration advantage and Republican incumbent Lloyd Smucker beat Jess King 58.6% to 41.4%. Jess was another progressive who the DCCC refused to help.

PA-17- As expected, the incumbent v incumbent race saw Conor Lamb oust Keith Rothfus by around 40,000 votes, 56.1% to 43.9%, which balanced out the loss of Lamb's old district.

All in all, Pennsylvania brought the Democrats a net of 3 seats.

Rhode Island

Alabama

South Carolina

Big shocker was Joe Cunningham, without any DCCC help at all, won the first district, from which Mark Sanford had been defeated in his primary big by Trumpist Katie Arrington. An R+10 district, the 538 forecaster gave him a 1 in 10 shot to win. He beat the Trumpist 50.7% to 49.3% stunning... everyone.

South Dakota

nuthin'

Tennessee

nuthin'-- no Democrat doing better than a third against any of the Republicans.

Texas

TX-06- Although Jana Lynne Sanchez took the Tarrant Co. part of the district, she got crushed in Ellis and Navarro counties and lost to Republican Ron Wright for the empty seat in the R+9 district.

TX-07- Big win as Lizzie Fletcher ousted John Culberson, 126,168 (52.3%) to 114,859 (47.7%). Beto's coattails helped hear a lot.

TX-10- Mike Siegel came closer than anyone would have imagined, holding Michael McCaul to a stunning 50.9% win. Hopefully there will be a rematch in 2020, this time without the DCCC poo-poo-ing Siegel's efforts.

TX-23- All precincts are in but it's still too close to call, Republican incumbent Will Hurd leading Gina Ortiz Jones by 700 votes-- 49.1% to 48.8% in this 71% Latino district in which neither party ran a Latino.

TX-31- MJ Hegar fell shot but out-performed 2016 by 19 points, and actually won Williamson County, though not by enough to counter Carter's big majority in Bell. He gets to keep his seat for another cycle, having beat her 50.7% to 47.6%.

TX-32- Big win as Colin Allred ousted Jeff Sessions 52.2% to 45.9%.

Utah

UT-04- With only 68.4% of the precincts counted, it looks like Blue Dog Ben McAdams is beating GOP incumbent Mia Love 51.3% to 48.7% in this R+13 district. Love raised $4,772,004 to McAdams' $2,850,479. Ryan's SuperPAC spent $1,185,474 and the DCCC countered with $213,334.

Vermont

Alabama

Virginia

The Dems flipped 3 seats: VA-10, where Jennifer Wexton ousted Barbara Comstock 56.2% to 43.8%; VA-07, where Abigail Spanberger ousted Dave Brat 50.3% to 48.5%; and VA-02, where Elaine Luria ousted Scott Taylor, 51.1% to 48.9%.

Washington

Dems missed two good opportunities to take out Jaime Herrera Beutler and Cathy McMorris Rodgers but appears to be winning the Dave Reichert open seat (WA-08). With 63.7% of the votes counted Democrat Kim Schrier leads Republican Dino Rossi 104,520 (52.9%) to 92,900 (47.1%)

West Virginia

WV-03- Richard Ojeda fell woefully short against a paper candidate in an R+23 district. Carol Miller (the paper candidate) beat him 56.4% to 43.6%.

Wisconsin

Tragic loss in WI-01-- thank you DCCC, for nothing-- where Randy Bryce was beaten by Ryan-clone Bryan Steil 54.6% to 42.3% after Ryan's SuperPAC smeared Bryce night and day starting during the primary, smears unanswered by the DCCC who were happy to see a progressive and a working class person go down to defeat to a buttoned down terry corporate attorney who will be easier for them to relate to. Although Bryce won Kenosha County anyway, he could never have overcome the humongous majority (R+45) Steil won in red, red Waukesha County, which had been gerrymandered into the district to make it safer for Ryan.

Wyoming

See Alabama.

So... that looks like a net pick-up of 36 seats, possibly two or three more. Skimpy wave.

OK, Do You Want To Know Who Would Win Every Race In California And Washington If The Election Was Today?

The more people who remember this on election day-- or understand it-- the better

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight looks at the numbers and senses that a wave may be headed this way. He's so good he should get a crystal ball and start dressing like a gypsy. He's looking at polls-- "high-quality polls," he says-- that show Democrats with "a double-digit advantage over Republicans." And maybe that's because voters don't like someone who's not even on the ballot-- Señor T. Not on the ballot... but I'm sensing still the most relevant "issue" on the ballot, much to the chagrin of most Republicans who are on the ballot. Silver wrote that "the Classic version of our model gives them only a 1 in 5 chance of holding onto the House. Other versions of our model are slightly more optimistic for the GOP: The Deluxe version, which folds in expert ratings on a seat-by-seat basis, puts their chances at 1 in 4, while the Lite version, which uses district-level and generic ballot polls alone to make its forecasts, has them at a 3 in 10 chance. Whichever flavor of the forecast you prefer, the House is a long way from a foregone conclusion-- but also a long way from being a 'toss-up.' There are three questions that we ought to ask about this data. First, why have the changes in presidential approval and the generic ballot happened? Second, how likely are they to stick? And third, how much do they matter?"

• The statistics guys says "I don’t know," although he floats the possibility that "voters are tuning into the campaign to a greater degree than they had before-- and not liking what they see once they give Trump and Republicans a longer look."
• Mr. Statistics says "Your guess is as good as mine" but also says he thinks his own 10.8% generic ballot advantage for Team Blue "is too aggressive" and is probably overestimating the swing. [I think he's dead wrong.] He also discusses "historical norms," despite having an ahistoric presidency.

• "[I]t doesn’t take that much for Democrats to go from House underdogs to potentially taking 40 or more seats... If Democrats win the popular vote by “only” 5 to 6 percentage points-- still a pretty comfortable margin, but not necessarily enough to make up Republicans’ advantages due to gerrymandering, incumbency and the clustering of Democratic voters in urban districts-- they’re only about even-money to win the House. If they win it by 9 to 10 points, by contrast, they’re all but certain to win the House and in fact project to gain about 40 seats!"

His "Classic" model now projects a net of 37 seat gains for Democrats. Way too few and he's be moving that into the 40's by October and 50s by the end of October. Today I was just happy to see this one for Nebraska's 2nd district, metro Omaha-- basically an upgrade from toss-up to leans D:

What about the contested California races Ted Lieu is working so hard to swing from Red-to-Blue? Here they are, from north to south. So we'll start in Washington, where Silvers' model is wrong in all three races with a red bias:

There's nothing cooking in Oregon, so now we're down in California, starting with Ted's biggest long shot:

I hope Silver is right about this one and that I'm wrong, but this is one where you need more than statistics. But... like I said, Silvers may have this right (though if I had to bet cash...)

Then the other 2 Central Valley seat, Valadao's and Nunes'. He probably has Valadao's right and Nunes' isn't quite as dire as he makes it seem:

OK, and here's where we start winning so much we won't be able to stand winning any more. First CA-25, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley and Antelope Valley:

Except this one, where Cisneros, the lottery winner and an exceptionally bad candidate to begin with, is being successfully tarred as a woman-abuser

And that leaves us with another long shot, but a long shot that has gotten better when Drunken Hunter and his wife were arrested-- like in season 2 of Ozark and indicted on a few dozen charges.

I think Silver is giving Hunter too much benefit of the doubt and that the margin should be much narrower. In any case, Ted Lieu is doing a better job than all the other DCCC regional vice chairs combined-- by far. Here's a loving caricature Nancy Ohanian did of him after she met him a couple of weeks ago.

Across The Board, Yesterday's Primary Turnout Was Catastrophic For The GOP

A great night for progressives and reformers 

Yesterday Nate Silver said that "In races where insurgent, progressive Democrats are running against party-backed nominees ... the establishment Democrat is winning 89% of the time." If not so sure about definitions that make that even remotely true. And it certainly wasn't true last night. I'll give you two examples. First, the only contested congressional race in Connecticut was in the 5th district. Although Obama is a big fan of Teacher of the Year, progressive Jahana Hayes, the establishment candidate was, clearly the more conservative Mary Glassman, the first Democratic primary candidate to be backed by the U.S. Chamber since they tried to rescue Blanche Lincoln. They failed and Jahana won-- big.

The Republicans had hoped to make a race out of that district but while 39,115 Democrats voted, just 31,394 Republicans bothered showing up to vote, a good harbinger for November-- and a dynamic we'll be discussing in a moment. Another race that puts the lie to Silver's assertion was in Wisconsin's first congressional district. Randy "@IronStache" Bryce, came into the race as a progressive insurgent with ZERO backing from the DCCC and he has no establishment crap attached to his campaign. When the DCCC saw that he had created an invincible brand and was outraging all their own candidates across the country, they added him to their red-to-blue page and tried to run to the front of the parade, which they never quite caught up with. Silver might consider that a win for the establishment but... well, that's another example of a flaw in what Silver does. Randy's results against a fake progressive (who backed Hillary in 2016 and who was heavily backed by Paul Ryan's SuperPAC in the primary) shows how a progressive reformer wins in a swing district without even a nod in the direction of the DCCC's Republican-lite one-size-fits-all prescription for victory:

Again, in a district where both Romney and Trump won and where voters had become accustomed to backing Paul Ryan locally, 61,087 Democrats showed up at the polls, but the GOP could muster only 59,870 Republican voters for a lively primary that featured Bryan Steil, a Ryan clone and establishment pick, and a neo-Nazi millionaire, Paul Nehlen, a guy named Ryan and 3 other white male conservatives.

In both these races and the others in all the states we were following last night, a big story was the turnout. Democrats out-performed and Republicans under-performed. Let's start in Vermont:

The Republican governor, Phil Scott, is popular in the state and the top Democratic candidate-- who wn handily, is a transgender woman, Christine Hallquist. It wasn't only that Hallquist drew more voters than Scott-- 27,558 to 24,206-- it was that 57,102 voters turned up for the Democratic race, but just 35,840 turned up to vote in the Republican primary, where a gun-nut backed by the NRA campaigned vigorously against Scott. In the other statewide races it was the same thing: huge turnouts for the Democratic races, significantly smaller turnouts for the GOP.

The Republicans think they have a shot to grab the Connecticut governor's mansion, but progressive Democrat Ned Lamont alone, took more votes than all 5 Republicans combined! 211,499 Democrats voted but only 142,890 Republicans.

In Wisconsin, the Democrats picked the most likely Democrat-- from a field of 10-- to beat Scott Walker in November, State Superintendent of Education, Tony Evers. But the big news was that 537,840 voters showed up for the Democratic primary but just 456,007 came for the GOP primary. Alarm bells are ringing. In the state's U.S. Senate race, Leah Vukmir beat Kevin Nicholson, even though she was tarred as the anti-Trump candidate and even though he was backed by the big money-- and even though polls showed him performing better than Vukmir against Democrat Tammy Baldwin in November. Nicholson outspent her $3,087,414 to $1,573,068 and the outside money that flowed into the race included around $10,000,000 for Nicholson and just $2.5 million for Vukmir. She took 217,023 votes to his 190,040-- 49% to 42.9%.

And that brings us to Minnesota-- and the same story as in Vermont, Connecticut and Wisconsin: more Democrats, fewer Republicans coming out to vote. In the gubernatorial race-- won by Tim Walz-- 580,962 Dems voted but just 319,276 Republicans. And, better yet, the mainstream conservative, Tim Pawlenty was defeated 52.6% to 43.9% by right-wing extremist Jeff Johnson, making Walz's job in November much easier than anyone expected. Pawlenty told the media that "The Republican Party has shifted. It is the era of Trump, and I’m just not a Trump-like politician." In the two U.S. Senate races it was the same story-- way more Democrats voting. Amy Klobuchar alone won more votes than all 4 Republicans combined-- 554,611 to 288,482-- as did Democrat Tina Smith Smith in the special election.

Even in the contested Republican-leaning congressional districts, Democratic voter turnout out-performed Republican voter turnout. The GOP hopes to pick up two blue seats that Trump won. In MN-08, where Rick Nolan is retiring, the PVI is R+4 and Trump beat Hillary 54.2% to 38.6%-- but 67,083 voters showed up for the Democratic primary and just 49,032 came to vote in the GOP primary. Same story in the first district, where Walz left a vulnerable seat open. The PVI is R+5 and Trump beat Hillary 53.3% to 38.4%.. But bad news for the NRCC: 47,248 Democrats and 42,385 Republicans.

And as long as we're on Minnesota, no one expected a Republican showing in the 5th district (Minneapolis) for Keith Ellison's empty seat but the results were noteworthy because super-progressive Ilhan Omar won in a rout, 48.2% in a 6-person field. And just so you can see what happens in a blue district-- 135,318 voters showed up for the Democratic primary and only 15,367 for the Republican primary. The third highest vote getter among the Democrats won more votes than all 3 Republican contestants combined.

As Chuck Todd mentioned this morning for NBC, "Democratic enthusiasm is still sky-high." In both Minnesota and Wisconsin voter turnout was over 20%, higher than primaries in non-presidential years than anything since decades.

Having tested their messaging with their pathetic and very negative puppet, Cathy Myers, in the WI-01 race, the GOP was out this morning with a vicious radio ad based on the issues they gave her to use against Bryce, issues they pounded with incessant push-polling on her behalf all during the primary. This is what happens when an unserious vanity candidate can capitalize on a high-profile race to make a few greedy consultants rich at the expense of accomplishing something that the progressive community has been craving-- and needs-- so badly. Cathy Myers-- worst and most detrimental candidate to have run in 2018.

Not Even Impeaching Trump Would Save The House Republicans From Angry Voters

I've never been a big fan of Nate Silver's or his brand of research. But sometimes-- like this time-- he hits the nail right on the head. His point last week is that conventional wisdom about the solidity of Trump's core support is incorrect and that Trump's base is already looking shaky and starting to shrink.

A widely held tenet of the current conventional wisdom is that while President Trump might not be popular overall, he has a high floor on his support. Trump’s sizable and enthusiastic base-- perhaps 35 to 40 percent of the country-- won’t abandon him any time soon, the theory goes, and they don’t necessarily care about some of the controversies that the “mainstream media” treats as game-changing developments.

It’s an entirely reasonable theory. We live in a highly partisan epoch, and voters are usually loyal to politicians from their party. Trump endured a lot of turbulence in the general election but stuck it out to win the Electoral College. The media doesn’t always guess right about which stories will resonate with voters.

But the theory isn’t supported by the evidence. To the contrary, Trump’s base seems to be eroding. There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trump’s strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support. And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an “enthusiasm gap” that works against Trump at the midterms. The data suggests, in particular, that the GOP’s initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters.

...During last year’s presidential primaries, Trump received about 14 million votes out of a total of 62 million cast between the two parties, which works out to 23 percent of the total. So perhaps it’s not a coincidence that 20 to 25 percent of the country still strongly supports Trump; they were with him from the start.

But 20 to 25 percent isn’t all that large a base-- obviously not enough to win general elections on its own. Instead, Trump won the White House because most Republicans who initially supported another GOP candidate in the primary wound up backing him in the November election. Trump has always had his share of reluctant supporters, and their ranks have been growing as the number of strong supporters has decreased. If those reluctant Trump supporters shift to being reluctant opponents instead, he’ll be in a lot of trouble, with consequences ranging from a midterm wave against Republicans to an increased likelihood of impeachment.

Last night I was on the phone with one of the strategists putting together the plan to defeat Paul Ryan. He seems worried that Trump could be impeached quickly-- which is really unlikely-- and damage the chances for a an anti-Trump wave turning into a more general anti-GOP tsunami. I tried to calm him down. As we've pointed out many times in the past, Paul Ryan's toxicity among voters is nearly as strong as Trump's-- even in his own Wisconsin district.

Yesterday, writing for the Capital Times in nearby Madison, John Nichols explored one of the biggest reasons why Ryan's approval has been collapsing in WI-01. And it's not just about Trumpanzee. Ryan is being recognized nationally and locally as a bold-faced liar whose deceptions are actually insulting to the intelligence of the people he's attempting to deceive.

When the Congressional Budget Office issued its assessment of the American Health Care Act, House Speaker Paul Ryan responded with this announcement: “This CBO report again confirms that the American Health Care Act achieves our mission: lowering premiums and lowering the deficit.”

That is a lie on so many levels that it is hard to know where to begin.

But let’s start here: The CBO report specifically explains that in many states, “community-rated premiums would rise over time, and people who are less healthy (including those with pre-existing or newly acquired medical conditions) would ultimately be unable to purchase comprehensive non-group health insurance at premiums comparable to those under current law, if they could purchase it at all.”

So what Ryan is saying about premiums is wrong.

But the bigger concern is with what he is not saying.

Ryan's lie of omission is a serious one, as it avoids the fundamental fact revealed by the CBO report: Whatever savings might be achieved come at immense human cost. As the Los Angeles Times notes, “According to the budget office, which both parties in Congress look to for estimates on the impact of complex legislation, the bill would cause 23 million fewer people to have health insurance by 2026. Many additional consumers would see skimpier health coverage and higher deductibles, the budget office projected.”

The CBO review says that “less healthy people would face extremely high premiums.” And that “out-of-pocket spending on maternity care and mental health and substance abuse services could increase by thousands of dollars.”

Bottom line: Paul Ryan is proposing to provide Americans with less health care at greater cost. And he is not even delivering as much deficit relief as previously promised. As CBS News notes: “The House-passed legislation would also reduce federal deficits over the next 10 years by $119 billion, CBO said Wednesday, which is less than the $150 billion CBO projected in a score of an earlier version of the bill.” And, by all accounts, only a small percentage of the supposed “savings” would be applied to budget reduction.

So Paul Ryan is spouting nonsense.

That's bad.

Bad, but hardly new. Now it's finally being exposed. The DCCC has systematically protected Ryan over the last decade by discouraging and-- when that didn't work-- sabotaging prospective and actual Democratic challengers. Democratic activists in Wisconsin are ready for Pelosi and Lujan and their bullshit this time and are putting together a plan to take Ryan down without any participation from the DCCC, the DNC, Pelosi or any of the corrupt elements that have soiled the Democratic brand among the kind of working Americans who delivered states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Michigan to Trump in 2016. There's no room for any characters like Debbie Wasserman Schultz or Rahm Emanuel in their plans-- Trump or no Trump.

The GOP Brand Is In The Toilet And Herr Trumpf Is The Most Hated Candidate Of 2016

Before dropping out of the primary race, Lindsey Graham may never have reached the 3% threshold of support anywhere but the mass media loves his sassy demeanor anyway, and gives him more airtime than almost any other member of Congress. This morning he was on Fox and Friends again demeaning Herr Trumpf and Ted Cruz, rivals to Jeb Bush, the candidate who would presumably give ole Lindsey a cabinet position so he would never have to pander to a bunch of racist rednecks and Know Nothings in Spartanburg, Greenville and Anderson again. He told Fox viewers that Ted Cruz, with whom he serves is the "most divisive figure I've ever seen in the United States Senate. I don't think he can bring us together. His foreign policy is all over the board." He has equal disdain for Herr Trumpf who he asserted "is all-over-the-board crazy. I think you're crazy if you think you're going to deport American born citizen children of illegal immigrants. I think that's just demagoguery." And he doesn't think either is fit to be commander in chief (although he claimed Jeb is).

Today in a blistering attack, Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, a Chris Christie pal who hasn't endorsed any candidate and says he doesn't plan to, warned his state's Republicans about Cruz. "Ted Cruz is ahead right now. What we’re trying to do is educate the people in the state of Iowa. He is the biggest opponent of renewable fuels. He actually introduced a bill in 2013 to immediately eliminate the Renewable Fuel Standard. He’s heavily financed by Big Oil. So we think once Iowans realize that fact, they might find other things attractive but he could be very damaging to our state" and added that he wants to see Cruz defeated. Cruz returned the compliment tonight: "Terry Branstad is a crony capitalist who is part of the GOP establishment," a comment sure to lose him some votes in Iowa.

As part of the grand build up to the big endorsement today, Sarah Palin set Bristol loose on Cruz:

After hearing what Cruz is now saying about my mom, in a negative knee-jerk reaction, makes me hope my mom does endorse Trump. Cruz’s flip-flop, turning against my mom who’s done nothing but support and help him when others sure didn’t, shows he’s a typical politician. How rude to that he’s setting up a false narrative about her!

America doesn’t need that. We need someone who has a vision for economic prosperity, who won’t let us get kicked around in the world, and who will fight for our future.

I didn’t go to Harvard Law School, but I know this:  You can like two people in a race, but there will only one president.

The audacity to suggest that because she chooses one over the other will somehow “damage” her just shows arrogance.

You’ve also said, “She can pick winners!” I hope you’re right, and that she endorses Donald Trump today for President.

NBC reported today that their polling shows all the ugliness and negativity around the Republican race further damaging the party's already tattered brand. 42% of registered voters-- regardless of party-- are saying they feel more negatively about the Republican Party because of the primary. Only 23% of Republicans say they feel more negatively about the party now, though. Regardless, Nate Silver's website reports that Herr Trumpf is even more unpopular with general election voters than most people imagined. Independents and Democrats really don't like him. Silver: "Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a -70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. (Trump also has less-than-spectacular favorable ratings among his fellow Republicans.)"

We’ve got an unpopular set of presidential candidates this year-- Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in either party with a net-positive favorability rating-- but Trump is the most unpopular of all. His favorability rating is 33 percent, as compared with an unfavorable rating of 58 percent, for a net rating of -25 percentage points. By comparison Hillary Clinton, whose favorability ratings are notoriously poor, has a 42 percent favorable rating against a 50 percent unfavorable rating, for a net of -8 points. Those are bad numbers, but nowhere near as bad as Trump’s.