Now, What Actually DID Happen In Florida?

Donna! Donna! Donna!

Democratic performance was up... but not by enough. There was a little good news. In Miami-Dade, two red seats flipped blue, although both are fairly strong blue districts. FL-27, where Ileana Ros Lehtinen retired, has a PVI of D+5. Hillary beat Trump there by TWENTY points-- 58.5% to 38.9%, so you wouldn't think it would take a wave. A very weak Democrat, Donna Shalala, beat a fairy strong Republican, Maria Salazar 127,144 (51.7%) to 112,638 (45.8%). Next door, Carlos Curbelo tried distancing himself from Trump and fought a tough battle against Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell but the district is too blue (D+6) for a Republican in a year like this with such a xenophobic, anti-Hispanic "president." Hillary beat Trump there 56.8% to 40.5%. Mucarsel-Powell beat Curbelo 116,626 (50.7%) to 113,326 (49.3%). As of the Oct 17 FEC reporting deadline Shalala had outraged Salazar $3,402,023 to $1,542,470. The DCCC kicked in $1,031,865 and Pelosi's PAC put in another $636,302. The NRCC put in $1,493,272 and Ryan's PAC threw in $273,123. All in all each candidate had about $2 million in negative ads thrown against them.

FL-26 was more fiercely contested. Curbelo raised $4,751,998 to Mucarsel-Powell's $3,746,206. The DCCC spent $4,566,411 and Pelosi's PAC put in another $2,608,655. The NRCC spent $2,725,738 and Ryan spent $2,893,997.

The other Florida races where the DCCC had hoped to make headway were all flops, primarily because they had weak candidates... and a weak wave. In the 6th district (DeSantis' seat) Michael Waltz took every county and beat Nancy Soderberg (New Dem) 187,322 (56.3%) to 145,137 (43.7%). PVI is R+7 and Hillary had lost to Trump 56.9% to 39.9%. Soderberg outraised Waltz $2,826,532 to $1,702,312. The DCCC didn't spend in this one but Pelosi put in $499,932 and Bloomberg's PAC put in $1,623,370. Neither the NRCC nor Ryan's PAC spent but a right-wing billionaires PAC, (American Patriots) put in $1,102,500.

One of the only decent candidates the DCCC had in Florida, Kristen Carlson, went up against Ross Spano for Dennis Ross' seat (FL-15) in the Tampa suburbs and exurbs. The PVI is R+6 so even with Carlson outperforming she still lost 149,555 (53.1%) to 131,876 (46.9%). She had outraised Spano, $1,297,512 to $581,690. But while the DCCC spent just $694,360, Ryan's PAC put in $1,744,302 (on top of Club for Growth's $637,403).

In FL-16 Vern Buchanan held onto his seat 195,693 (54.6%) to 162,633 (45.4%) against David Shapiro. Brian Mast beat back a challenge from DCCC recruit Lauren Baer 183,376 (54.4%) to 153,543 (45.6%). Buchanan's district is R+7 and Mast's is R+5. And, a seat the DCCC thought they'd have a chance in, FL-25, was retained by Mario Diaz-Balart against another decent Democratic candidate Mary Barzee Flores, 126,713 (60.6%) to 82,220 (39.4%).

The dual catastrophe of the night was in the two big statewide races, where Rick Scott edged Bill Nelson 4,035,815 (50.4%) to 3,977,352 (49.6%) and, even more shockingly, Ron DeSantis beat Andrew Gillum for the governor's mansion, 4,013,976 (49.9%) to 3,934,962 (48.9%).

Nationally, the wave sure wasn't a tsunami, but the Democrats did win the House and a lot of gubernatorial seats and we'll get into the rest of that mañana and the day after mañana. I have to chill. We're going to suspend the DWT schedule for a week or two and just post now and then instead of by set times. Bare with us, ok?