"When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying the cross."
-- Sinclair Lewis
Wednesday, June 06, 2018
Yesterday's Primaries
>
New Jersey was the disaster last night that no one who follows New Jersey Democratic politics didn't ever think it wouldn't be. It's one of the worst of the party boss corrupt Machine states (both parties). All the contested primaries went to the DCCC/Blue Dog/New Dem garbage candidate. Every progressive lost. That's New Jersey... always. No one expected a Kara Eastman or a Amy McGrath situation, where both of them defeated DCCC-preferred Blue Dogs, respectively in Omaha, Nebraska and Lexington, Kentucky.
• NJ-02- Jeff Van Drew- 55.4% • NJ-04- Joshua Welle- 57.2% • NJ-07- Tom Malinowski- 66.8% • NJ-11- Mikie Sherrill- 77.3%
There's no reason to vote out the incumbents for these crappy, meaningless, careerist candidates... other than Trump hatred. So in November... let's take Van Drew. Why would anyone vote for him? Maybe because they want to send the most right-wing Democrat in the state Senate to Congress? Or because they want another NRA ally inside the Democratic caucus? Or another fence-jumping Blue Dog? Certainly no self-respecting progressive is going to vote for Jeff Van Drew. What about Malinowski. Why kick out Leonard Lance for a torture defender? The only race I was following in Alabama was for the second congressional seat where mainstreamish conservative Martha Roby is in trouble for not be Trumpish enough. She had 4 Republican opponents and needed to break 50% to avoid a runoff. She came in first, but will face former Blue Dog, former congressman, now Republican Bobby Bright.
• Martha Roby- 39.0% • Bobby Bright- 28.1% • Barry Moore- 19.3% • Rich Hobson- 7.5% • Tommy Amason- 6.1%
In Iowa there were 3 congressional races worth watching, one to face Rod Blue (IA-01), one to face David Young (IA-03) and one to face neo-fascist Steve King (IA-03). The DCCC endorsed Abby Finkenauer, a fairly useless and lazy, unaccomplished state legislator. Iowa Democrats decided to stick with the DCCC and Finkenauer wound up with 67.0%, even though Thomas Heckroth was a better candidate. In the 3rd district the non-Bernie candidate, Cindy Axne (58.0%) beat out Eddie Mauro (26.4%) and Pete D'Alessandro (15.6%). The good news in Iowa was the nice win for progressive J.D. Scholten who is eager to take on King.
California For all the hand-wringing from Democrats about how the jungle primary could dictate 2 Republicans running against each other in November, the only instances of a party being locked out of the general were both Republicans. Dianna Feinstein and Kevin De León, both Democrats, will face-off in November. And in CA-44, an overwhelmingly blue district, Nanette Barragan and Aja Brown, both Democrats, will be the two candidates in November, the two Republicans in the race having split 17.4% of the vote to be edged out by Brown's 16.7% in the second-place slot. There is one race that is too close to call where it looks like two Republicans might make it into November-- CA-08. GOP incumbent Paul Cook may face far right extremist Tim Donnelly instead of progressive Democrat Marjorie Doyle, largely due to 2 vanity candidates who drew off 14.4% of the vote.
There's a lesson to be learned in CA-25 (Santa Clarita, Antelope and Simi valleys) where Republican incumbent Steve Knight will be up against Katie Hill in November. He ran first with 41,310 votes (52.8%). Katie came in second with 15,833 (20.2%) to fellow Bryan Caforio's 14,305 (18.2%). Caforio, last cycle's candidate, started with far higher name recognition. He lost because he ran the most negative campaign anyone cane ever recall in that district-- negative against Katie. Her campaign was strictly positive. Democrats don't like negative primary battles and Caforio was edged out. Another lesson-- this one the San Fernando Valley (CA-27)-- where Tony Cardenas, who has been credibly accused of molesting a young woman, won with 67% in a 5-person race. Also notable, in CA-31, a nice blue district with a D+8 PVI-- and where Hillary beat Trump 57.7 to 36.6%-- an especially bad Democrat, New Dem Pete Aguilar-- came in second to Republican Sean Flynn (45.9% to 45.8%) with a second Democrat, Kaisar Ahmed, drawing off 8.3% of the vote.
And now for the big Orange County races. In the open-seat 39th, where 7 Republicans and 8 Democrats running, the DCCC candidate, Gil Cisneros (the lottery winner who self funded to the tune of-- as of the FEC report from May 5-- $3,552,762) will face off with Republican Young Kim in November. Three Democrats spent over a million dollars each to Kim's $640,925:
• Gil Cisneros- $3,894,387 • Andy Thorburn- $2,837,630 • Mai-Khanh Tran- $1,233,138
As you can see above, money and votes did not match up, which should-- but won't-- cause the DCCC to reassess their strategies and policies. The Orange County bright spot was CA-45, where the progressive candidate, Katie Porter, beat the New Dem, Dave Min, who also ran a very ugly, negative campaign. Katie will face Trump rubber stamp Mimi Walters in November. Walters took 53.2% of the vote, so this is going to be very tough to win.
The seat that pundits thought was most likely to wind up shutting out the Democrats entirely, didn't come close, where the second-ranked Republican, Scott Baugh, came in 4th. It's too close to call for second place between frick and frack, although Harley Rouda leads Hans Keirstead, both horribly flawed candidates, by less than 100 votes. A recount is likely. This was another heavily self-funded race. As of May 5:
Saddest results of all came in CA-49, where Doug Applegate, clearly the best Democratic candidate, was edged out by 2 really bad Democrats Mike Levin and Sara Jacobs. The good news for Democrats in the district is that the Republican with the best chance to win in November, mainstream state legislator Rocky Chavez came in 6th-- and 3rd among Republicans. Levin will face Diane Harkey in November, 2 really bad candidates. There's no reason to vote for Levin except to put a check on Trump.
Crawling Through The Wreckage Of This Year's Republican Party Primaries
>
Although Dana Rohrabacher is a special case we can look at below, basically there are no Republicans in Congress who are being primaried because they are too Trumped-up. The most Trumpified lunatics in the House-- take Matt Gaetz (FL) or Devin Nunes (CA) as perfect examples-- have no mainstream Republicans trying to take them out. Mainstream Republicans are either a figment of our imaginations or being mighty quiet this year. Instead, Trumpists are savaging GOP incumbents who they claim aren’t sufficiently servile to Señor Trumpanzee. Even without Bannon running a purity jihad from the White House, right-wing extremists and on the attack. NC-09 stretches along the southern border of the state, from the eastern and southern Charlotte metro, through Monroe, Wadesboro, Laurinburg, and Lumberton into eastern Fayetteville. The PVI is R+8. Obama lost it both times and the district went for Trump last year 54.4% to 42.8%. The incumbent is Republican Robert Pittenger, who has a solidly conservative voting record but been a target of Tea Party extremists since 2014 when he said he wouldn't support shutting down the government over an attempt to destroy Obamacare. They ran crackpot Michael Steinberg, who wasn’t able to get much traction. Pittenger won with 67%. Last cycle he had two GOP primary challengers from the right, Mark Harris and Todd Johnson, which proved to be a very tough primary for him:
Now that’s a close call for an incumbent-- 134 votes! This year the DCCC is running a Republican-lite Blue Dog, Dan McCready and as of the December 31 FEC reporting deadline, McCready had outraged Pittenger $1,221,979 to $780,250. Making matters worse for Pittenger, Mark Harris is primarying him again-- and raised some decent money-- $406,222-- forcing Pittenger to spend all his dough on the primary. A couple of weeks ago the biggest newspaper in the district covered the May 8th primary by running a PolitiFact smackdown with this provocative headline: GOP rival says Pittenger is among the 'most liberal' Republicans in Congress. False.
To close the voting gap before the May 8 primary, Harris is questioning Pittenger’s conservative credentials. Pittenger has represented North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District since 2013, when he succeeded retiring Republican Sue Myrick. A Charlotte resident, Pittenger previously served in the state Senate and in 2008 ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor. In a recent newsletter, Harris criticized Pittenger for supporting a spending bill that raised the debt ceiling. “Robert Pittenger showed us yet again why he is constantly rated as one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress,” the newsletter says. There are 535 voting members of Congress (the House of Representatives and the Senate). Republicans control Congress with nearly 300 seats: 238 in the House and 51 seats in the Senate. The term "most liberal" is somewhat subjective. But we at PolitiFact North Carolina wondered whether conservative watchdog groups have consistently singled out Pittenger as liberal. We contacted the Harris campaign to see what ratings systems he’s referencing in the newsletter. The primary source for the statement is a rating by Conservative Review, according to Harris campaign spokesman Andy Yates. Conservative Review is a website edited by Mark Levin, a talk radio host who has referred to Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell as a "dummy" and "failure." "Pittenger has a 55% F grade with them. It is the second worst grade of any NC Republican House member (McHenry is the worst)," Yates said in an email, referring to Rep. Patrick McHenry, who represents Western North Carolina. "Pittenger has consistently graded out as an F with this group which marks him as one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress." Yates is right about Pittenger's standing among the 10 North Carolina Republicans in the House. Whether that puts him among the most liberal Republicans in these rankings depends on how one defines "most liberal." According to Conservative Review’s scorecard, there are about 90 House Republicans-- about 36 percent-- who have lower "Liberty Scores" than Pittenger. Among those with lower scores than Pittenger: House Speaker Paul Ryan and majority whip Steve Scalise. Yates also cited Pittenger’s 2018 rating with FreedomWorks, which is zero. FreedomWorks is a libertarian-leaning advocacy group. The scorecard mostly covers fiscal policy, civil liberties and regulatory issues, said Jason Pye, vice president of legislative affairs at FreedomWorks. Pye referred to Pittenger as "unreliable" when it comes to reining in spending. Pittenger "generally votes with leadership, and they like to bust spending caps and bust the budget-- things we’re opposed to," Pye said.
Pittenger has a "Lifetime Score" of 70 with the FreedomWorks. There are about 114 House members with lower lifetime scores than Pittenger. Pittenger's score places him slightly to the right of California Republican Devin Nunes and slightly to the left of U.S. Sen. Richard Burr, also of North Carolina. Pittenger's Conservative Review rating and his lifetime rating on FreedomWorks aren’t extremely liberal (or conservative) compared to other congressional Republicans… Pittenger votes out-of-step with the majority of Republicans 5.5 percent of the time, according to ProPublica. The group says that’s close to the average for Republicans in Congress. He has a score of 90 percent with Heritage Action for America, a watchdog group and think tank that says it “turns conservative ideas into reality on Capitol Hill.” The average score for House Republicans is 68 percent. According to a vote tracker on FiveThirtyEight.com, Pittenger’s votes are aligned with Trump 96.9 percent of the time. And there are dozens of Republican House members who vote in-step with Trump less than Pittenger. …PolitiFact ruling Harris said Pittenger is "constantly rated as one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress." We can’t find the results to back that up. So we rate this claim False.
Pittenger has been handing out a campaign document to media: “Rep. Robert Pittenger: Unapologetically Pro Trump,” which detailed the “over 200” media appearances, six rallies, nine town halls and other instances in which Pittenger has offered robust defenses” of Señor Trumpanzee. Club for Growth, always looking to elect extremists and neo-fascists, is backing Harris. As in GOOP primaries around the country, the one in NC-09 has support for Señor T big factor for the dumbed-down Republican electorate, with both sides accusing the opponent of disloyalty to the fascist regime. The latest poll shows Pittenger absolutely crushing Harris so far, up 32 points over him. Another mainstream conservative in the South, Alabama’s Martha Roby, is under attack for not being pro-Trump enough. Her district, AL-02-- the southeast corner of the state, including part of Montgomery, all of Greenville and Dothan-- has an R+16 PVI that has given Democrats about a third of its vote. Trump beat Hillary 65% to 33%. There are 5 Republicans primarying Roby, one being former Blue Dog Democrat Bobby Bright, who she beat in 2012, and is now a born-again Trumpist. Noe-fascist state Rep. State Rep. Barry Moore is even further right. Everyone is claiming to be Trumpier than Roby, who denounced Trump after the Access Hollywood tape. Another candidate attacking Roby from the (far) right is Rich Hobson, Roy Moore’s campaign manager. Bright was exactly the kind of Blue Dog the DCCC is recruiting now. He describes himself to Alabama Republicans as having been more Republican in Congress “than several dozen Republican counterparts” and says he was “pro-life, pro-Second Amendment and does not believe in same-sex marriage.” Thank God, he’s admitting he’s a Republican now or Lujan and Pelosi would be trying to lure him back to Congress as a Democrat. “Everything that you might think a Democrat believes, I wasn’t there,” he told the local media recently. The primary is June 5 and Bright can’t repeat often enough that he will help “President” Donald Trump any way he could in pushing the “president’s” America-first agenda. The Staten Island/Brooklyn district (NY-11) that elected former D.A. Dan Donovan (R) after Mafia thug Michael “Mikey Suits” Grimm was sent to federal prison, may be ready to send Grimm, now out of prison, back to Congress. The district’s PVI is R+3. It was the only district in NYC Trump won, beating Hillary 53.6% to 43.8%, a district Obama won in 2012 by over 4 points. The DCCC recruited a very conservative Blue Dog, Max Rose, who would be a complete long shot except for this wave. But Donovan has a bigger problem now-- winning the primary, especially after he was exposed over the weekend in a shockingly sordid affair, perhaps typical for Staten Island but… well, not something voters are likely to forget. The NY Post scooped everyone about how Donovan used his official position to get his baby mama’s son out of a heroin arrest on Staten Island.
Donovan, a former district attorney who now represents Staten Island and part of South Brooklyn, stepped in after his domestic partner’s son was arrested with a friend for “criminal sale and possession of a controlled substance (heroin),” according to an allegation filed with the Office of Congressional Ethics last week. Timothy O’Connell, son of Serena Stonick, was detained with the female friend after the bust, the allegation states. The friend’s name is being withheld by The Post. “Later that evening, Donovan, while serving in Congress and as a former District Attorney, visited the 122 Precinct and used his position to illegally request that officers issue O’Connell and [the friend] a ‘desk appearance ticket’ instead of proceeding with normal arrest protocols,” the allegation says. “This intervention allowed the detained to be immediately released from custody, as well as the records to be sealed.” A desk appearance ticket lets an arrested person show up in court at a later date to answer a summons and avoid being sent to central booking, jailed or arraigned. …[Donovan spokesman Pat] Ryan noted that when Donovan first began dating Stonick in 2011, she told him that her daughter also struggled with addiction and was in drug-treatment court. As the DA at the time, Donovan requested and was granted a special prosecutor in that case. Donovan and Stonick now have a young daughter together. “This is a disgusting, vicious and false attack on a young man’s struggle with addiction to score political points two months before an election,” Ryan said, referring to June’s GOP congressional primary in which Donovan will face ex-con former Rep. Michael Grimm. Ryan pointed to O’Connell’s arrest report, which shows the young man did not make a phone call after being collared. O’Connell’s attorney, Joe Mure, said his client was charged with seventh-degree criminal drug possession, not sale. The misdemeanor is punishable by up to a year in jail. The charge was dismissed in March 2016. Mure claimed four glassine bags of heroin were found in the woman’s wallet when police pulled her and O’Connell over and that marijuana was later found in her shoe at the station house. But the arrest report indicates O’Connell was seen buying heroin. Ryan said, “We’re not saying [O’Connell] was charged without any cause.” O’Connell denied doing drugs. “No marijuana, no heroin. I don’t even drink . . . I go to church every Sunday,” he said. He denied Donovan helped him get out of trouble. His friend would not comment on the case. The tipster who made the allegation to the Office of Congressional Ethics said “multiple sources” contributed to the account, including a retired cop and an active detective on Staten Island, elected officials and someone close to the female friend. The source close to the friend said the woman was driving O’Connell when he asked to go to a house in Great Kills. The source was told that “he went in, he came out. They continued driving. They were pulled over. They were found with drugs.” The source said that if Donovan did quash the arrests, he made the wrong decision. “I thought if these kids went through the system and you get a taste of prison... That’s going to scare you some, and maybe it was a chance to keep these kids off drugs,” the person said.
Ironically, when Grimm was in Congress he had the same kind of mainstream conservative record as Donovan does. But now Grimm is attacking Donovan for it and running as an extreme, off-the-cliff Trumpist. Democrats generally feel they can flip the seat more easily if Grimm wins the primary. No one seriously though he could until this weekend.
Todd Rokita is an unaccomplished Indiana member of Congress currently embroiled in a tough primary against Luke Messer, another unaccomplished Indiana Rep. They’re both running for a Senate nomination. Rokita’s new ad doesn’t mention anything remotely connected to issues or policy-- just that he’s the Trumpiest Republican in the race. Writing for the Washington Post today, Aaron Blake noted that the ad encapsulates the all-consuming tribalism of Trump’s Republican Party. “The ad,” he wrote, “titled ‘MAGA,’ is a remarkable little window into how at least one candidate thinks you win in today's GOP, and Rokita hopes it's his ticket to the Republican nomination to face Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) next month… [Trump] has turned a Republican Party that was all about conservative purity earlier this decade into one that is more about Trump purity. It's a party built on personality whose base has stood by Trump, even as he has shrugged off an antagonistic foreign power's incursion into U.S. elections. It's a party that almost instantly and universally dismisses every Trump-inspired controversy as unimportant and a media creation-- even ‘fake news.’… The problem with being the most ‘with Trump,’ though, is that what it requires can change depending on the day. Trump isn't just a political novice-- he's a chameleon. That may sound harsh and negative, but it's objectively true and even a testament to Trump's ability to hold his base almost by sheer force of personality. The prevailing ethos of Trump's presidency isn't conservative policies so much as ‘Trump will take care of it, and don't worry about the details. There's no question as to why candidates such as Rokita want to be associated with Trump. But just at its core, Rokita isn't subscribing to any specific policies; he's subscribing to supporting a president who might do all kinds of things he never expected. Yet Rokita has wagered that the most important thing is that he assures people he'll be along for the ride.”
And that brings us to Dana Rohrabacher in the coastal Orange County district (CA-48). Hillary narrowly beat Trump there and Rohrabacher has been successful exposed as a Putin puppet. California has open primaries and there’s aq slight chance Rohrabacher won’t even make it into the general election. New Dem Harley Rouda is favored to win among Democrats-- and he would for sure except for the support the DCCC is surrepticuousl funneling to another New Dem, Hans Keirstead, a candidate who looks good on paper but who has been a complete bust in the flesh. Rohabacher’s other problem in the primary, though, is former Assemblyman and former Orange County GOP chairman Scott Baugh. Now Baugh, a former Rohrabacher ally, is attacking him as a Putin puppet, likely to help Rouda if Rohrabacher makes the general. Trump’s unpopular in the district and he’s not really as much of a factor as he is in GOP primaries in the rest of the country-- unless Putin = Trump in the minds of Republican primary voters in South Brooklyn which is lousy with pro-Putin (and pro-Trump) Russian immigrants who are extremely disloyal to the U.S. and ought to be all deported as dangerous aliens.
What's The Difference Between A Blue Dog And A Republican?
>
No one every knew which party Bobby Bright belonged to when he was mayor of Montgomery. But when the longtime congressman for southeast Alabama (including about half of Montgomery) he decided to claim he was a Democrat, even though he's a total gun nut and NRA ally, a gay-hater and, of course, anti-Choice. But as a Democrat he was able to avoid the crowded GOP primary. The district, AL-02 includes Autauga, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Dale, Elmore, Geneva, Henry, Houston, and Pike counties and part of Montgomery County. McCalin beat Obama 64-35% and Romney beat him 63-36%. Bad enough, but Trump beat Hillary 65-33%. The PVI is R+16. So... Blue Dog Bobby Bright, who voted very consistently with the Republicans for the one session he was in Congress, is now, as of today, trying to get his old seat back-- as a Republican. When Everett decided to retire and Bright decided he was a "Democrat," he beat far right Republican state legislator Jay Love 144,368 (50.3)% to 142,578 (49.7%), Love having spent $2,444,627 to Bright's $1,193,166. The DCCC put $625,102 into independent efforts to help Bright, almost as much as the NRCC put in for Love ($671,718). Bright was the first Democrat to represent the district since William Louis Dickinson won it in 1964. In 2010 Bright was defeated by Martha Roby 111,645 (51.1%) to 106,865 (48.9%). He spent $1,435,526 (+ DCCC - $1,405,067) to Roby's $1,240,276 (+ NRCC- $1,059,414). In 2013 he switched parties and has been a conservative Republican since 2013. Blue America got involved in making sure Bright wouldn't be reelected and many professional Democrats got angry with us. The stupid, incompetent Republicans hadn't figured out how to beat Bright. They were busy calling him a "Nancy Pelosi pawn" in the white suburbs of Montgomery, where he-- and his conservative politics-- were quite popular. So Blue America decided to point out his record to some of Bright's other constituents. We began a massive, targeted radio and TV campaign in just 4 counties, the 4 counties where Barack Obama did best in 2008, the 4 counties most badly effected by Bright's anti-family votes, the 4 counties that make it hard for a Democrat to win district-wide without landslide victories: Lowndes, Bullock, Barbour and Butler. When the African-American precincts in and around Montgomery were gerrymandered into the 3rd CD, the 2nd was left as a hopeless Republican bastion. It's a freak of nature that even a throwback Democrat as far to the right as Bright could have ever won the seat. He won it 144,368-142,578... but with massive support from the African-American voters in Lowndes, Bullock, Barbour and Butler counties, voters whose interests he consistently ignored from the moment he was elected. Obama only won 36% of the vote in Alabama's 2nd CD but he won landslides in Lowndes County (5,447 to 1,807) and Bullock County (4,001 to 1,389) and ties in Butler and Barbour counties. This is the radio ad some local actors made for us:
Not everyone thought it was sage to help defeat a Democrat in a perilous election. "But what exactly," I asked at the time, "does Bobby Bright bring to the table? What good would saving his seat do? He had already announced he wouldn't vote for Pelosi (which meant he wouldn't vote to organize the House for the Democrats). He voted with the GOP on every contentious issue. He worked within the Democratic caucus to destroy or water down every single piece of progressive legislation he could get his hands on. And he denigrated the Democratic brand with his framing, making it seem toxic to even be a Democrat… When Democrats passed the DISCLOSE Act in the House, to stop the flow of foreign money into American elections, something they knew would be a boon for the GOP and a disaster for Democrats, Bright was one of the Blue Dogs to cross the aisle and vote with the Republicans. He was one of only five Democrats who had been endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the funnel for millions of yuan, dinars and rubles being used to pervert our country's political system. So here's the TV ad we ran: What do you think? Should we do a campaign like this to Dan Lipinski in Illinois? In IL-03 it won't be some crazy Republican like Martha Roby who tales over the seat; it's be a solid progressive Democrat: Marie Newman. What do you think? Let us know. Back to Bright for a moment again. Bright "pointing out that at one point Gov. Kay Ivey, Sen. Richard Shelby and even President Donald Trump were Democrats. Bright said the GOP more closely aligns with his values."
"I tried to be a Democrat, and I didn't do the job as a Democrat that I wanted to do, mainly because my beliefs are conservative and that held me back," he told reporters in Hoover, where he submitted his qualification papers to run as a Republican. "You have to look at where I came from when I chose to run as a Democrat. I was a non-partisan mayor for 10 years, so I worked to make things happen and to be successful across party lines. I felt at the time I could go on to Washington as a Democrat and be very, very effective and we did-- we were very effective to a great degree. But there's limited things you can do up there as a conservative controlled by a liberal party." Bright was a Blue Dog Democrat, a caucus of the party's most conservative members. He voted against Obamacare. The attempt to win back his own seat was spurred by people in the district, which spans from most of Montgomery to the Wiregrass Region, asking for change, according to Bright. "I am answering their call," he said of his former constituents. "They've asked me to consider stepping back into the political arena and represent their interest, and that's what I intend to do." Bright claimed that residents in the district are not being "properly represented" because Roby does not currently sit on the Armed Services or Agriculture committees and the district has a sizeable military presence and a robust farming community. "We have two military bases, we have many, many farmers... they have no voice, they have no direct voice to Washington, D.C.," he said. Last year, Roby told AL.com that her seat on the House Appropriations Committee gives her a platform "to fight for our military men and women" by securing funding. "Representative Roby is focused on doing the job that the people of Alabama's Second District sent her to Washington to do, and she looks forward to discussing her clear conservative Republican record on the campaign trail," a spokeswoman for Roby's campaign said in an email statement Thursday. The National Republican Congressional Committee-- the campaign arm of House Republicans-- slammed Bright for his vote to elect Nancy Pelosi speaker. The committee is backing Roby in the primary. "A candidate running as a Republican in Alabama who voted for Nancy Pelosi is definitely the most shocking news of the day-- even in 2018," NRCC regional spokeswoman Maddie Anderson said in an email to AL.com. "Nancy Pelosi is the most unpopular political figure in the entire country and I look forward to watching Bobby Bright explain to Alabamians how exactly he supports both Pelosi and the tax-cutting GOP agenda." As of Thursday, there were two other Republican challengers for the seat: Roy Moore aide Rich Hobson and state Rep. Barry Moore, R-Enterprise.
Will The Vengeful Asshole In The White House Jeopardize GOP Chances To Hold Congress?
>
Virtually all recent polling shows that growing majorities of Americans view Trump's personal characteristics-- like integrity, honesty, intelligence, etc-- in negative lights. The last to go was the question about Trump as a strong leader. That would took the longest time to start slipping. But, finally, the polls are starting to show that people are distinguishing between a bully and a leader-- or at least realizing that bullies are weak, not strong. In this morning's Politico Alex Isenstadt delves into one of Trump's most infamous, pervasive and least admired characteristics-- his penchant for mindless revenge-- that is part of how people see him on the strength/weakness scale. He wrote that Señor Trumpanzee "is less than six months into his presidency, yet one of the organizing principles of his political operation is already becoming clear: Payback." Do you see that as strength or as weakness? Ask 2018 vulnerable Republican senators Jeff Flake or Dean Heller. Ask Mika Brzezinski or CNN. His modus operandi is primitive and pure Mafioso. Some people-- more likely Republicans-- see this kind of behavior as "strength." Normal people don't.
In private, Trump has spoken of spending $10 million out of his own pocket to defeat an incumbent senator of his own party, Jeff Flake of Arizona, according to two sources familiar with the conversation last fall. More recently, the president celebrated the attacks orchestrated by a White House-sanctioned outside group against another Republican senator, Dean Heller of Nevada, who has also been openly critical of him. Fear of Trump reprisals has led one Republican congresswoman, Martha Roby of Alabama, to launch an intense campaign to win over a president who remembers every political slight-- and especially those who abandoned him following the October release of the 2005 Access Hollywood tape in which he bragged about sexually assaulting women. At the time, Roby called Trump “unacceptable” and said she wouldn’t vote for him. But the president, who is popular in Alabama, ended up carrying her district by wide margin. And since the inauguration, she has gone to the White House four times to attend Trump-hosted events and on two other occasions to meet with his daughter, Ivanka. During the Rose Garden celebration following the House’s passage of the health care bill, the four-term congresswoman offered the president a personal compliment while shaking his hand: “Good job,” she told him, according to a source close to Roby who was briefed on the exchange. White House officials have taken notice of Roby’s efforts to make amends and view her efforts with some skepticism. While in the Oval Office for a NASA bill signing in March, Roby sidled up next to Trump-- putting her front-and-center for the photo-op. Behind her push for the president’s approval is a stark political reality: She is facing a fierce primary challenge from a Trump stalwart who has turned her past opposition to the president into the focal point of his campaign. The backstage machinations provide a glimpse into Trump’s approach to politics and how it is shaping the 2018 midterm election landscape. Trump’s obsession with loyalty and penchant for keeping close track of personal slights-- both well-documented by his biographers and in coverage of his presidency-- colors his approach not only toward his political foes but toward his own party’s candidates, even at the risk of jeopardizing GOP incumbents. “The president once told me that the most important lesson he learned from Roy Cohn was loyalty,” said Christopher Ruddy, a longtime Trump friend and the chief executive of the conservative website Newsmax, referring to the ruthless New York fixer and attorney who mentored the president early in his real estate career. “He believes in that strongly in all his friendships.” White House spokespersons did not respond to a request for comment for this story. Even before the 2016 campaign was over, Trump began talking about how as president he would strike back at the members of his party who wronged him, according to a senior campaign aide. Administration officials have been struck by his ability to recall what Republicans said about him before his victory, especially those who criticized him following the release of the Access Hollywood tape-- a decisive moment that crystallized for the then-GOP nominee who his true friends were. Even today, Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, according to one administration official, is routinely reminded that he told Trump to quit the race. Two different White House aides say the president now relishes that some of those who crossed him, like Roby, are scrambling to get in his good graces. They have good cause for worry. Just days before taking the oath of office, Trump mounted a successful effort to oust a fierce intra-party critic, Ohio GOP Chairman Matt Borges. The president has also fumed about Flake, who called on Trump to drop out after the Access Hollywood footage surfaced. Backstage before an Arizona election rally last fall, Trump spoke animatedly about his desire to find a primary challenger to the senator-- at one point saying that he would put $10 million toward the anti-Flake effort. Flake has already drawn a pro-Trump opponent, former state Sen. Kelli Ward, and two other allies of the president, Trump campaign COO Jeff DeWit and former state GOP Chair Robert Graham, are considering bids. DeWit remains close with the administration and was at the White House last month to attend meetings. Heller, who announced months before the election that he didn’t intend to support Trump, is also out of favor with the president. The Nevada Republican recently came under attack from a pro-Trump outside group over his refusal to support the Obamacare repeal bill-- a move that rankled Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who viewed it as an unnecessary effort to undercut one of his most politically vulnerable members. Yet Trump has told friends that he loved the anti-Heller blitz, convinced that the senator was trying to use his opposition to the bill for his political gain and that a show of force was needed, said two people familiar with the discussions. When it comes to Flake and Heller, the disdain is personal-- three sources familiar with the president's thinking said Trump believes the senators are determined to undermine him. ...“While the president has never been a ‘turn the other cheek’ kind of guy, I believe that he is aware that he has a better chance of pressuring establishment Republicans into his congressional majority to get anything done then he does liberal Democrats,” said Roger Stone, a longtime Trump friend and informal political adviser. “A purge of the party establishment, while it would be delicious, is not on the agenda-- unless of course the president became convinced they willfully inspired to delay or defeat his programs.” That may be the case with Martha Roby, who has decided her best play is to win over the president she once lambasted. The effort began the night of his election, when she hammered out a 3 a.m. tweet congratulating him. “I'm eager to get to work,” she wrote. The move, her detractors insist, is a cynical one. Roby’s primary opponent, state Rep. Barry Moore, notes that he was the first elected official in Alabama to endorse Trump and that he attended the August 2015 rally in Mobile that catapulted Trump’s national bid. The president has become the centerpiece of Moore’s campaign: On the personal biography page of his campaign website, Moore mentions Trump’s name no fewer than eight times. “He knows I was there when the times were tough, and long before he had the nomination,” he said. “I was there for him when he needed us.” “A lot of the Republicans panicked, I think, and were more concerned about saving their political careers than supporting our nominee,” added Moore, who is fashioning himself as a Trump-style insurgent. “He had a bunch of cut-and-run congressmen.” Roby’s aides insist her relationship with the administration has been nothing but warm. Her visits to the White House, they point out, came at the Trump team’s request. And there have been other hints at cooperation. In February, Trump gave Roby a retweet when she congratulated Attorney General Jeff Sessions on his confirmation, and in April, the president nominated the congresswoman’s chief of staff to a Justice Department post-- trophies that Roby’s advisers eagerly highlight. While Roby’s aides don’t deny past tension with Trump, they say they’ve gotten no indication the president wants to unseat her. “The White House has made it clear from day one that it is committed to working with Congress to deliver results, and Rep. Roby has a proven track record of consistently supporting President Trump's agenda,” said Emily Taylor, a Roby spokeswoman. “From being invited to NASA and VA bill signing ceremonies, to sitting in the Oval Office to help the President build support for the Republican health care bill, Rep. Roby has enjoyed a positive working relationship with the Trump Administration." For now, Trump aides don’t expect him to weigh into Roby’s race with an endorsement for her opponent. But, at the same time, they don’t expect him to take steps to publicly back the incumbent. Roby is just hoping to avoid Trump’s wrath, and that means doing whatever she can to ally herself with him. In late March, as the debate over the health care bill raged, Roby and other House members were asked to come to the White House. At one point, the congresswoman was asked if she supported the legislation. As she later recounted in a video posted to her Facebook page, she looked the president in the eye and told him she did. The president told her he appreciated it.
Roby's carefully gerrymandered deep red southeast Alabama district, which includes Dothan and the white parts of Montgomery, is one of those politically backward districts that voted more heavyily for Trump than it had for Romney. Trump beat Hillary in AL-02 in a landslide-- 64.9 to 33.0%. Roby had a closer race against Democrat Nathan Mathis, although she beat him 48.8% to 40.5%, with a 21,000 vote edge of 276,000 votes cast. She spent $1,828,096 and he didn't spend even the $5,000 that would have triggered an FEC report. This cycle the DCCC is making [fake] noises about contesting Roby's seat. The candidate will probably be Audri Scott Williams, a local activist and military veteran. How funny would it be if the NRCC was forced to spend money in Alabama to hold a seat because of Trump's childish and oafish Mafia behavior? Roby has carefully towed the party line and has a 100% vote score on the Trump scale, pretty sick and pretty extreme... great for a primary against a deranged Trumpist lunatic, but not so great in a general election.
