As Everyone Knows, Trump-- Like The Mafia-- Is An Enemy Of Law And Order... But Why Did The Republican Party Go Down That Path With Him?

 

The box on the right is the official one. The box on the left was put up by the Republican Party to steal your ballot and burn it. Be careful of Republicans; they hate democracy

No one has been arrested in the Republican scheme to steal ballots and burn them by setting up phony drop-off boxes around California. It seems to have begun in Fresno County in an attempt for the local Republican Party to steal ballots from Hispanic voters, although the coordinated Republican fraud has been detected in Los Angeles and in Orange County where it may be part of an effort by sleazy Republican congressional candidate Michelle Steel, who Kevin McCarthy's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC has supported with $1,980,734 so far this cycle. This is just the kind of felony McCarthy-- an ethics-free Trump stalwart-- would get behind. It appears that Jordan Tygh, a regional field director for the California Republican Party and part of the Steel campaign, is the designated fall guy for the GOP higher-ups. Steel has not been disqualified, let alone arrested, for her decision to steal ballots.

Republicans are freaking out as they stare at the dimensions of the tsunami headed their way. Yesterday, Wall Street Journal reporters Danny Dougherty and Chad Day looked at the early voting data that helps explain the GOP freakout. "Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Virginia," the wrote, "have already received more early ballots than they did in the 2016 presidential election. Several other states have topped 2016 numbers for mail ballots returned, even as in-person early voting is opening up in much of the country. So far, 8.2 million people have voted by mail in the general election and 835,000 headed to polling places early to cast ballots, according to figures from 35 states and the District of Columbia compiled by the Associated Press. For comparison, more than 58 million early ballots were cast in 2016... North Carolina, another presidential battleground and host to a competitive Senate race, received more mail-in votes by September than it saw for all of the 2016 general election... In both North Carolina and Florida, registered Democrats have cast more ballots than registered Republicans so far. In North Carolina, independent voters have also cast more early ballots than registered Republicans.

Presumably, it was just rogue elements in the Trump coalition and not officials of the Republican Party who are behind the thwarted plot to kidnap Democratic governors. Yes, governors (plural)-- not just Gretchen Whitmer. Washington Post reporters Kayla Ruble and Devlin Barrett wrote that according to sworn FBI testimony, the same right-wing terrorists in Ohio who plotted to kidnap the Michigan governor, also talked about kidnapping Virginia Governor Ralph Northam.

Trump continually smeared and attacked both governors in a way than any violent, low-IQ follower of his might believe he was being called on by the president total action against them to "liberate" their states.

Northam spokeswoman Alena Yarmosky said the FBI “alerted key members of the Governor’s security team throughout the course of their investigation,” but to keep tight control of information about such a sensitive matter, neither the governor nor other members of his staff were told.

“At no time was the Governor or his family in imminent danger,” said Yarmosky, adding that extra security measures “have been in place for Governor Northam and his family for quite some time, and they will remain.”

The spokeswoman also faulted Trump for fueling anger.

“Here’s the reality: President Trump called upon his supporters to ‘LIBERATE VIRGINIA’ in April-- just like Michigan. In fact, the President regularly encourages violence against those who disagree with him. The rhetoric coming out of this White House has serious and potentially deadly consequences. It must stop,” said Yarmosky.

Tuesday’s hearing is to determine if some of those charged in the alleged Whitmer plot can be released on bond. Separately, seven others are charged by state authorities in Michigan with providing support to terrorist acts.

Don Don-- Criminals hate regulations

Trask, the FBI agent, described in great detail how federal agents became concerned about the accused, particularly after a June meeting in Dublin, Ohio, where self-styled militia members from four or five states gathered to discuss possible plans.

It was at that meeting, Trask said, that the notion of grabbing governors was raised, specifically mentioning the governors of Virginia and Michigan. One of the suspects, Adam Fox, then returned to Michigan and began recruiting possible accomplices for such a kidnapping, Trask said.

Fox and others conducted surveillance on the governor’s lakeside vacation home, Trask said, and at one point Fox told the others that he wanted to abduct the governor, take her away from the home by boat, and then “leave her out in the boat” so others would have to come rescue her, according to testimony at the hearing. Another option discussed was to take Whitmer to a secret location where they would put her “on trial,” Trask said, possibly in Wisconsin.

...Trask also detailed the ways in which the half-dozen suspects repeatedly discussed plans to attack law enforcement. At one point, a member of the group mentioned the possibility of attacking Michigan State Police buildings.

At another point, one of the defendants, Brandon Caserta, became irate that he had been pulled over and ticketed for driving without insurance.

“An injustice just happened to me,” Caserta messaged the other suspects, according to evidence introduced at the hearing, and he wrote he could find out where the two police officers lived and “tap them,” which the FBI agent said was slang for killing them.

Even as the FBI closed in on the group, the defendants became increasingly concerned they might be under investigation by federal agents. At one point, the accused collaborators scanned each other’s bodies for radio signals, to see if anyone was wearing a recording device, the agent said. While the scans turned up nothing, the group’s alleged plot was infiltrated by two informants and two undercover agents, Trask said, and the FBI secretly recorded more than 100 hours of the suspects’ conversations.

Masks For All? Good Luck With That

Huntington Beach is in Orange County, between Los Angeles and San Diego. It's the population center of the 48th congressional district and if you want to know how a reactionary Russian spy and psychotic bigot like Dana Rohrabacher could have been elected to Congress 15 times... just watch the video above and try to get into the heads of his people. The current congressman, freshman Harley Rouda isn't nearly as bad as Rohrabacher. He beat Rohrabacher in the anti-red wave of 2018-- 157,837 (54%) to 136,899 (46%). Rouda ran as a Democrat, but he isn't really a Democrat; he's a moderately conservative Republican who calls himself a New Dem and has quickly earned himself an "F" rating from ProgressivePunch-- 64.47% (out of 100).

CA-48 was almost equally divided in the 2016 presidential race, Hillary edging Señor Trumpanzee 47.9% to 46.2%. The one from that 46.2% cohort introduced themselves in that video. Have you watched it yet. Watch it; it's fun tragic and sad and will help you understand why the U.S. may well wind up with marshall law-- and whole lot of conspiracy theories... a dangerous thing in a country with so many people with semi-automatic weapons.

There is tremendous resistance to social distancing and mask wearing there-- and very aggressively so. The county has been hit hard by the pandemic but that doesn't stop a very vocal part of that 46.2% cohort from claiming it's all a hoax. On Friday the county reported 710 more confirmed COVID cases, bringing their total to 33,358. There have been 556 deaths in Orange County so far.

Orange County doesn't have any Republicans left in their congressional delegation-- unless you still insist on counting Rouda as a Republican-- but it's not what I would call a safely blue county. Still, Bernie won the county in the March primary-- and with a slightly larger margin than he did statewide. Yesterday, Bernie sent a note to his followers-- in Orange County and everywhere else-- about masks and his legislation that would make masks available to everyone in the country. "Tragically, because of the inept leadership of Donald Trump," Bernie wrote, "the United States is losing the struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, many thousands of our fellow Americans have unnecessarily died or become ill. Trump has rejected science with regard to the pandemic. We will not. Together, we will fight back and implement policies based on science which will protect the health and well-being of the American people. That's why I am urgently calling for a simple and inexpensive way to protect Americans during the coronavirus pandemic: Masks for All." He explained the bill he's hoping to get through the Senate:

Our goal must be to manufacture and distribute high-quality masks to medical professionals and to every man, woman and child in this country at no cost. And next week, I will introduce legislation to do just that.

...Here is what the legislation would do:

• Direct the Trump administration to use the Defense Production Act to produce and deliver three high-quality, reusable masks to every person in the country.
• Work with state and local governments to deliver masks to homeless shelters, jails, detention centers, testing sites, post offices, pharmacies and other congregate-care settings.

The science is clear: Wearing a mask is the best way to protect ourselves from the coronavirus and save lives, and the widespread use of masks will get Americans back to work sooner and reunite families who have stayed apart.

As the United States reports a record number of new cases-- 4 million total confirmed cases announced this week-- research about mask wearing shows that masks are crucial to decreasing the spread of the coronavirus. When the virus can't easily find hosts, it dies out.

South Korea, one of the more successful countries in responding to the pandemic, began the process of procuring high-quality masks in late February and provided them affordably to its citizens by partnering with pharmacies across the country. Taiwan, the Czech Republic, Germany, Vietnam and dozens of other countries have also demonstrated that as mask wearing became commonplace in public, coronavirus cases were contained. And only when the virus is contained can our society finally go back to normal.

Other countries have successfully provided masks to their people, and now it is time for the United States to do the same.

Not only will widespread mask wearing help save lives-- it can help slow our growing economic crisis as well. One estimate says that widespread use of masks could be worth up to $1 trillion to our economy by preventing shutdowns and getting people back to work earlier.





To make enough high-quality masks for all Americans, this legislation requires the administration to invoke the Defense Production Act, which was written explicitly for these purposes. This will mandate that manufacturers put in place the additional capacity necessary to meet the needs of the public and provide assistance to companies who want to begin producing masks or scale up production. Communities hard hit by job losses could and should benefit greatly from these new employment opportunities.

Unfortunately, given Trump's anti-science mentality, it is absolutely clear that we cannot wait for this administration to take action... Let us not forget: Our country is facing a series of unprecedented crises, but we will get through them as long as we stand together.

Watch this video from the tweet below to better understand what America is up against when it comes to the 46.2% OC cohort deciding that the best way to own the libs is to spread the contagion.

Up the road a bit is Los Angeles. Eric Garcetti also sent an e-mail out yesterday warning the residents that "COVID-19 is not going away anytime soon. It will be with us-- and remain a threat-- for the foreseeable future." He rates it a threat level orange, meaning that "the virus is a danger to all of us and continues to spread throughout the community. In order to stay safe, we need to continue wearing masks, avoid gatherings, wash our hands frequently, and keep physical distance from others... Wearing a mask is particularly important and will help to keep our community safe and reopen our economy.

Paul Ryan Gives Up On 2 More Orange County Incumbents— Mimi And Dana Pushed Overboard

Maybe it’s too early to congratulation progressive Democrat Katie Porter and New Dem Harley Rouda, but yesterday’s L.A. Times reported that Mimi Walters (CA-45) and Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48) are no longer seen as viable candidates by Ryan’s shady, Adelson-funded SuperPAC. Both have been cut off and left on the side of the road to die, politically speaking. What the Times reported is that the omission of Rohrabacher and Walters from TV advertising by Ryan’s Congressional Leadership Fund “comes at a crucial inflection point in the midterm election when the two parties begin assessing their likely winners and losers.”

Walters and Rohrabacher join a dozen other Republican incumbents who have been left for dead like Barbara Comstock (VA), Mike Coffman (CO), Mike Bishop (MI), Kevin Yoder (KS), Rod Blum (IA)... This is especially odd and unexpected for Walters and Rohrabacher because just last week Ryan’s PAC spent $337,839 savaging Katie Porter and $324,105 smearing Harley Rouda.

Candidates in California, where more than half a dozen seats are being seriously contested, are at particular risk of being cut off financially because of the state’s exorbitant advertising costs. Money saved in the costly Los Angeles media market can be spread over several contests in other states that may be considered more winnable.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, which collects multi-million-dollar checks from the Republican Party’s biggest donors, says it is spending nearly $12 million on cable television ads in four House contests in Southern California.

On Friday, the super PAC launched an additional $5-million ad campaign on the main broadcast stations in Los Angeles, the nation’s second most expensive media market after New York.

But the fund’s opening broadcast ads support only two of the four Republican candidates in the Southland’s hardest-fought races: Rep. Steve Knight of Palmdale and Young Kim of Fullerton, relegating its Rohrabacher and Walters ads to cable channels with fewer viewers.

The fund is free to add Walters and Rohrabacher to its broadcast lineup later. But millions of Californians have already received their ballots by mail, so immediate advertising is crucial to the fate of the two lawmakers, who are each facing their most serious challenges ever.

Rohrabacher has served 15 terms in Congress and Walters is bidding to win her third term.

Their Democratic challengers are already spending heavily on broadcast television ads. Walters has aired some broadcast commercials too, but Rohrabacher has not.

Nationwide, Democratic candidates have raised far more money than Republicans. As a result, GOP candidates are counting on outside groups like the Congressional Leadership Fund to come to the rescue.

But those groups must pay as much as quadruple the rates that television stations are required by law to offer to candidates, so the Democratic dollars are buying far more ad time. And those dollars are expanding the political battlefield, pressuring Republican strategists to make hard decisions on where to commit precious resources and which candidates to let go.

“While most people talk constantly about whether [Democratic enthusiasm] will translate into turnout, it’s definitely translating into dollars,” said Rob Stutzman, a veteran Republican strategist in Sacramento. “Dollars aren’t decisive always, but it’s always a big advantage.

“When you’re these national committees and you’ve got problems in the suburbs of Dallas, Kansas City, Chicago, Philadelphia, you’ve got to start making decisions on where you can most effectively spend,” Stutzman said.

For Knight, facing a formidable fundraiser in Democratic challenger Katie Hill, the new boost from the Congressional Leadership Fund came as a big relief. “We’re happy to have the help,” Knight strategist Matt Rexroad said.

Kim, the other Republican getting broadcast ads from the fund, is battling Democrat Gil Cisneros to succeed Rep. Ed Royce of Fullerton.

A Rohrabacher spokesman did not return a call for comment.

Dave Gilliard, a strategist for Walters, warned against reading too much into the latest machinations.

“There’s a lot of head fakes and games of chicken that occur between various outside spending groups in all these congressional districts,” he said. “Everybody’s trying to head-fake the other side to get them to spend money where they don’t need it.”

A spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee said the GOP’s congressional campaign arm is now broadcasting a spot supporting Walters and attacking her challenger, Katie Porter.

But he declined to say whether the committee would step up its advertising in either Orange County district if the Congressional Leadership Fund keeps Rohrabacher and Walters limited to cable.

The DCCC is doing something very similar. Remember, triage is bi-partisan-- and always favors conservatives (because of who exactly makes the decisions).They sent out a toxic memo Friday urging institutional donors and the suckers who still contribute to them instead of giving directly to candidates to concentrate on the corrupt conservatives the DCCC is pushing and stop giving money to the progressive candidates whose campaigns the DCCC is trying to destroy. They specifically asked donors to earmark money for New Dem candidates who are way ahead, while cutting back on all candidates associated with Bernie and with the policies he espouses and which are popular with Democratic voters. It’s ironic because the only way the anti-Red wave could possible turn into a Blue Wave would be for the DCCC to embrace ideas like Medicare-For-All, free state colleges, $15 minimum wage, Job Guarantee and other progressive ideas. The DCCC and their bag of Republican-lite candidates would rather run on bullshit talking points and conservative policies like PayGo.

The Midterm Field Has Expanded In California-- Thank Ted Lieu

L.A. Times this morning: "Republicans are at risk of a wipeout in California’s six most hotly contested congressional races, a new poll shows-- a result that could radically reshape the state’s political map, with major consequences nationally... The Democratic tide threatens to swamp congressional districts in Southern California’s suburbs that Republicans have controlled for decades. That would significantly boost Democrats’ chances of gaining the additional 23 seats they need to win a majority in the House."

The story behind the story, a story beyond the ken of the mass media. After years of abject DCCC failure, the members of the Democratic caucus in the House demanded reforms from Pelosi before agreeing to give her another term as leader. That was in 2016. Reluctantly, Pelosi agreed to giving up the right to pick the DCCC chair and she agreed to allow the election of six DCCC regional vice chairs.

Big victory for reformers, right? Bullshit! When it came time to vote, the only candidate running for DCCC chair was Pelosi's handpicked, bumbling incompetent, Ben Ray Luján. So he was elected. There were no contested battles for the DCCC vice chairmen jobs either. And that has turned out to be a complete disaster. More than half the candidates outside of the West Coast have told me they didn't know their region even had a regional vice chair. One vice chair told me he didn't know why he ran or what the job was and asked me to help him figure out what he was supposed to do. Two years on and he hasn't done a thing. Another resigned a couple of months after being elected and, despite promises from Luján and Pelosi that he would be replaced, there is still no regional vice chair for the Rocky Mountain states and Texas (one of the crucial battlegrounds of 2018, where the unsupervised DCCC staff has fucked up race after race). In the end, two regional vice chairs get a passing grade, Joe Kennedy (B) and Ted Lieu (A+). The rest have been abject, embarrassing failures.

And that brings us back to this morning's L.A. Times story. "With the Nov. 6 midterm election less than five weeks away," wrote David Lauter, "none of the Republicans in the state’s six most competitive races have a lead. The Democrats lead strongly in one race and narrowly in three others, and two are dead heats, the Berkeley IGS Poll shows. Reaction to President Trump appears to drive the results more than any specific issue and, in most cases, more than the individual candidates. 'Trump appears to be the main motivator for voters in these districts,' said Mark DiCamillo, the veteran pollster who directs the Berkeley IGS Poll. 'He’s the central figure.'" Yes, he has that right. Recall, Ted Lieu's comments here at DWT yesterday: "The 2018 midterm elections are primarily about one thing: Donald Trump. November will be a referendum on the job the President and his party are doing.  Americans express their support or displeasure with the governing party. During a time of relatively low unemployment it is unheard of for the party in power to be so despised. But this is where we are-- Trump’s numbers are under water in purple districts across the country. This tells me that Americans are anxious about other things besides the economy. They are concerned about Trump’s temperament and lack of basic decency, the instability he creates around the globe, and his assault on our democratic norms and institutions. Voters are smart. They know that Trump inherited a pretty darn good economy from Barack Obama; and yet what did he do with it? Did he increase workers wages with a big infrastructure package? Did he tackle the student debt crisis? Make healthcare more affordable? Pay down the national debt? Nope. He and his Republican enablers in Congress passed a hugely unpopular tax cut for the wealthiest Americans and continue to undermine the Affordable Care Act. So on top of issues with Trump’s character and temperament, these policies are also very unpopular (and don’t even get me started on Russia)."

Even if he was hampered by the usual DC-directed DCCC staffer-clowns stepping clumsily and ineptly all over recruitment efforts, Lieu has demonstrated how the DCCC could turn into an organization that actually helps elect Democrats-- instead of existing as a pocket-lining disaster that benefits only the Republican Party. Unlike his co-vice chairs, he has raised millions of dollars for his region's candidates, helped the West Coast candidates find their footings for their races and helped create the environment that journalists and pundits marvel over as they write about the West Coast races.

Trump is unpopular across most of the targeted districts-- four covering parts of Orange and San Diego counties, one in Los Angeles County and one centered on Modesto in the Central Valley. That’s especially true among college-educated white voters, whose alienation from the president has turned suburban districts across the country into risky territory for the GOP, and among Latinos and women.

The share of voters who approve of Trump serves as a ceiling for Republican candidates, with none able to surpass Trump’s level by more than a few percentage points. That’s a significant problem for Republicans; in five of the six districts, a majority of likely voters disapprove of the president’s performance in office.

In several districts, the president’s opponents appear more motivated to vote than his supporters, with self-identified liberals and registered Democrats more likely to say that they view this year’s election as more important than previous contests.

Strategies that the Republicans had hoped would bolster their campaigns and make up for the undertow from the president appear to have had limited effect, at best.

A ballot measure to repeal the recent increase in the state’s gas tax, which Republican operatives had hoped would spur turnout on their side, trails in each of the six highly competitive districts. Money for the repeal campaign has largely dried up as Republicans have diverted funds elsewhere.

A national effort by Republicans to portray untested Democratic candidates as unacceptably liberal appears also to have come up short in these California districts. Several Democratic newcomers have maintained favorable images with voters, the poll showed.

As a result of those factors, Republicans lag behind in two of the four congressional districts that cover most of Orange County, long the heartland of California conservatism. The other two contests are dead heats.

A longtime Republican incumbent, Rep. Steve Knight of Palmdale, is narrowly trailing in the only remaining L.A.-centered district the GOP holds.

Farther north, Republican Rep. Jeff Denham of Turlock, who has survived previous attempts by Democrats to oust him, is behind by a slim margin in his Central Valley race.

The poll’s findings in those districts are generally similar to other recent nonpartisan, publicly released surveys.

In addition to those six districts, the poll also surveyed the races in two Republican-held seats that have not been top Democratic targets but have attracted considerable attention.

Rep. Devin Nunes of Tulare, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, has a 53%-45% lead in his race against Andrew Janz, a county prosecutor. Nunes’ role as a defender of Trump has opened a gusher of money for Janz, despite the district’s heavily Republican tilt.

But in another heavily Republican district, Rep. Duncan Hunter of Alpine has only a 49%-47% lead over Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, a result well within the poll’s margin of error.

Let me butt in here for a moment. According to Janz, the DCCC has been unhelpful and even hostile to his efforts to replace Nunes. Lieu has gone out of his way to help Janz even though Luján and Pelosi have refused to even add him to their Red to Blue list. With Lieu's help he has raised more money than any of the DCCC-favored candidates. And Lieu includes him in all his joint candidate events and fund-raising efforts. The DCCC has also ignored-- and viciously undermined-- Ammar Campa-Najjar. Lieu? He's helping him raise money and, in fact, is hosting a major fundraising event for him (and Randy Bryce) in two weeks.

49th District

Democrats have their strongest shot in the 49th District, covering northern San Diego County and the southern Orange County coast up through Dana Point. Mike Levin, the Democrat, has a 55%-41% lead over Republican Diane Harkey, the poll shows. Republican Rep. Darrell Issa decided not to run for reelection in a district that Hillary Clinton carried by just more than 7 points in the 2016 presidential election.

White voters with college degrees make up 45% of the likely voters in this mostly affluent, suburban district, and they back Levin 60% to 35%. Latinos, who make up about 1 in 8 likely voters here, back him by about a 3-1 majority. While men are divided almost evenly between the two, women favor Levin 60% to 34%.

Perhaps most important, likely voters disapprove of how Trump is doing as president 61% to 39%, with more than half, 55%, saying they strongly disapprove. Democrats and liberals were significantly more likely than Republicans and conservatives to say that it was “very important” for them to cast a vote to show their position on Trump.

48th District

Next door to the north, the 48th District, which spans the rest of the Orange County coast from Laguna Niguel to Seal Beach and inland to Westminster and Fountain Valley, is a couple of clicks more conservative. Clinton carried the district by less than 2 percentage points.

There, longtime Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa and his Democratic challenger, Harley Rouda, are in a dead heat, each with 48%. Voters also split almost evenly on whether they approve of Trump.

As in the 49th District, college-educated white voters and Latinos back the Democrat, but they make up a slightly smaller share of the electorate: 39% of likely voters in the 48th District are whites with college degrees, and about 1 in 10 are Latino, the poll found.

Rohrabacher also benefits from significant support among Asian Americans, who make up about 1 in 8 of the likely voters. Elsewhere in California, Asian Americans lean heavily toward the Democrats, but this district includes a large, conservative Vietnamese population. Asian American voters overall divide almost equally between Rohrabacher and Rouda, the poll found.

Among whites without a college degree-- the heart of Trump’s voting base-- Rohrabacher leads by nearly 20 points, 58% to 39%, almost twice the size of the Republican’s margin with that group in the 49th District. Women support the Democrat, but men back the Republican by an almost equal margin.

The more Trump-oriented conservatism of the 48th District also surfaces when voters said what issues they care about most. Among Republicans in the 49th District, taxes were the top issue; in the 48th, it was “securing the nation’s borders.”

As the two sides vie to break the Rohrabacher-Rouda tie, the poll found a couple of weak spots.

Latino voters in the district were slightly less likely than others to say they viewed this election as more important than usual. That could hold down the Democratic vote.

Rohrabacher, however, has been dogged by controversy over his friendliness to people connected with Russia’s government. Unsurprisingly, an overwhelming share of Democrats said his contacts with Russian officials made them less likely to vote for Rohrabacher. So did 10% of registered Republicans. Among the small number of undecided voters, 45% said the Russia issue made them less likely to vote for him.

45th District

The 45th District, which covers a swath of Orange County from Irvine east through most of the foothill communities, resembles the 49th in its affluent, college-educated demographics. Clinton carried the district by 5 percentage points.

The Republican incumbent, Rep. Mimi Walters of Laguna Beach, had confidently predicted she could ride out the national tide flowing against her party, but the poll shows her Democratic challenger, UC Irvine law professor Katie Porter, leading 52% to 45%.

This race illustrates the failure so far of GOP strategies. Walters put money into helping get the gas tax repeal measure on the ballot, hoping it would spur GOP turnout. But the poll shows the measure getting only about a third of the vote in the district.

Republicans have also put millions into ads attacking Porter as too far to the left. That effort has had limited impact. By 50% to 38%, likely voters have a favorable opinion of Porter; self-identified moderates view her favorably 52% to 37%. By contrast, 50% of the district’s voters have a negative view of Walters, compared with 45% who see her positively.

39th District

Only a very, very strong wave could drag Cisneros into Congress

The GOP may have had more success with negative ads in the 39th District, which covers much of northern Orange County as well as parts of Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties. Gil Cisneros has battled accusations that he sexually harassed a former Democratic state Assembly candidate, Melissa Fazli. A Republican super PAC allied with House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-WI) has run advertisements in the district about the charge.

Fazli withdrew the accusation this week after a meeting with Cisneros, saying it was based on a “misunderstanding.” The super PAC said it would stop running the ads.

The poll can’t directly measure the impact of that issue, but 45% of likely voters have a negative view of Cisneros. That includes 10% of registered Democrats. Just 41% of likely voters view him positively.

Cisneros and Republican Young Kim are locked in a dead heat, the poll showed, with the Democrat holding a nominal 49%-48% edge.

25th District

The demographic picture looks somewhat different in northern Los Angeles County, where Republican Rep. Steve Knight hopes to hold off a challenge from Katie Hill, the 31-year-old former executive director of PATH, a nonprofit organization that provides services to homeless people.

Hill has a slight edge, 50% to 46%, within the poll’s margin of error.

The district, which covers Simi Valley, Santa Clarita and the Palmdale area, has fewer college-educated white voters than the wealthy Orange County suburbs. But it has a higher share of minority voters.

Latinos make up a bit more than 1 in 5 of the district’s likely voters and support Hill by nearly 2 to 1, the poll found. Hill also benefits from a significant gender gap, with women backing her 53% to 44% over Knight, while men split almost evenly. Just over half of the voters have a strongly negative view of Trump

10th District

Similar factors have put Republican Rep. Jeff Denham’s career at risk as he seeks a fifth term in a district centered on Modesto in the Central Valley, where Latinos make up more than 40% of the district's population, but about a quarter of the likely voters.

Denham’s Democratic opponent, Josh Harder, has the support of roughly two-thirds of Latinos, the poll found.

White voters split 52% for Denham, 43% for Harder. Together, that’s enough to give the Democrat a 50%-45% edge in a district that Clinton narrowly carried in 2016 and where 57% of voters say they disapprove of Trump.

Here on the right is the Blue America "California-- Not Blue Enough" thermometer for 2018. To win Congress, Democratic voters are stuck with whichever candidates the primaries advanced to the general election. There are some really good candidates and some really bad candidates-- and mostly candidates in between. The DCCC put its finger on the scales in many districts to make sure New Dems and "ex"-Republicans from the Republican wing of the party would be the general election candidates. To stop Trump, we are now stuck with a situation where we have to vote for them too. But that isn't what Blue America is about. We're raising money only for the progressive candidates. Sure, vote for the Democrap candidates to help put Trump in check, but only contribute money to the progressives who will actually help solve America's problems when they get into Congress. Isn't that what this is ultimately all about? So, who, precisely, are they? Tap on the thermometer and you'll see.

Trump Is Proving To Be Absolutely Toxic For Republicans In Swing Districts Currently Held By Republicans

More Democrats need to run on this and NOT on Pelosi's insane idea of restoring PAY-GO

Two very different polls with interesting information came out this morning, one from Quinnipiac and one from Monmouth. Both carry very bad news for the GOP. I bet you haven't seen this before: American voters believe 55% to 28% that the allegations "anonymous" made-- and that were made by anonymous senior White House staffers in Fear that Trump's top aides work behind his back "to keep him from making what the aides believe are bad decisions"-- are true. Even 27% of Republicans believe it! Normal Americans seem much more certain than Republicans are. Among Democrats, 82% believe the assertions and among Independent voters 52% believe (and 33% don't believe). Asked if Trump is honest or not, 32% of Americans say he is and 60% understand that he's a congenital liar, incapable of opening his filthy mouth without lying. Among Republicans, only 17% understand he's a liar, but 92% of Democrats and 63% of Independents do. Nor is dishonesty the only trait polled that contributes to Trump's overall 38/54% approval/disapproval rating.

• Good leadership skills- No- 57%
• Cares about average Americans- No- 55%
• Level-headed- No- 65%
• Strong- Yes- 57%
• Intelligent- Yes- 51%
• Shares your values- No- 60%
• Mentally stable- Yes- 48% (42% say he's out of his mind)

The all-important fit to serve as president question- 41% say he is and 55% understand he isn't. By a 90-7% margin Republicans think he is fit to serve. 96% of Democrats say he isn't. Among independent votes, 42% say he's fit to serve and 53% say he isn't. That's a pretty bad hand Republicans are going into the midterms with. And that's what the Monmouth Poll dealt with-- but in just 8 key Republican-held battleground districts polled between June and August.

Unfortunately, Monmouth doesn't seem to be releasing the specific information by congressional district. I called them and tried, unsuccessfully, to get it out of them. These are the districts they polled: CA-48 (Rohrabacher), PA-01 (Brian Fitzpatrick), PA-17 (Keith Rothfus), NJ-03 (Tom MacArthur), NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen), OH-12 (Troy Balderson), VA-10 (Barbara Comstock), WV-03 (Evan Jenkins). Let me give you the information they reported (the average more or less of the 8 districts combined) and then I'll get into what I could find by scrounging around their site about the individual districts.

Among likely voters in the 8 districts, Democrats lead 47-43%. The two italicized incumbents are not running for reelection. The pollster reminds us that in all 8 districts Republican candidates won-- routinely-- by double digit margins in recent cycles. Findings:

• Where voters live has an impact on the margin of support. GOP House candidates are underperforming in Republican precincts relative to the Democrats’ performance in their base precincts. The Republican lead is between 4 and 13 percentage points in precincts that Romney/Trump carried, with the range depending on the size of the GOP presidential ticket’s margin. The Democratic lead is much stronger at 15 to 28 points in districts carried by Obama/Clinton.  In competitive districts – those where the average margin was less than 5 points for either party’s presidential ticket-- Democratic House candidates have a slim lead of 4 points. Also, the Democratic House candidate does better overall in precincts where Trump did worse than Romney even after controlling for the precinct’s partisan lean.
• Race, education and gender define key voting groups. Republicans’ core voting bloc is comprised of white men without a college degree, while Democrats can count on strong support from white female college graduates as a well as women of color regardless of educational attainment. White women without a degree and white male college graduates are more competitive groups, as are, to a lesser degree, men of color. White men without a degree who are registered Democrats and women of color who are registered Republicans are the most likely to cross party lines in their 2018 House vote.
• Partisan differences in election interest. High interest is more prevalent among voters supporting the Democratic candidates (62%) than it is among those supporting the Republicans (54%) in these eight races. The highest levels of interest come from college educated white men (75%) and women (72%) who are supporting a Democratic House candidate.
• Strongly held opinions of Trump lean negative. While voter opinion of Trump is evenly divided at 49% approve and 48% disapprove, there is a negative gap when looking only at strongly held opinions-- 33% strongly approve and 40% strongly disapprove in these eight districts.

Nw let's look at the district by district information I was able to cobble together within a reasonable time-frame relative to the above information.

• NJ-03- Trump's approval is 46% (33% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (41% strongly). 48% of NJ-03 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 43% say they support him.

• PA-17- Trump's approval is 44% (28% strongly) and his disapproval is 51% (43% strongly). 49% of PA-17 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 46% say they support him.

• CA-48- Trump's approval is 46% (32% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (39% strongly). 48% of CA-48 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 45% say they support him.

• NJ-11- Trump's approval is 47% (31% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (43% strongly). 43% of NJ-11 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 49% say they support him.

• VA-10- Trump's approval is 42% (24% strongly) and his disapproval is 53% (47% strongly). 39% of VA-10 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 45% say they support him.

• PA-01- Trump's approval is 47% (31% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (43% strongly). 49% of PA-01 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 44% say they support him.

• WV-03- Trump's approval is 66% (49% strongly) and his disapproval is 30% (23% strongly). 29% of WV-03 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 65% say they support him.

Wondering what this translates to nationally? It's impossible to be precise but it's a lot more than the 23 seats the Democrats need for a House Majority. In fact, it's more like something between two or three times more. There are always special circumstances in every race. In WV-03, as you can see, Trump has very high approvals. The PVI there is red, red, red-- R+23-- and Trump slaughtered Hillary, 72.5% to 22.5%. But you know who else slaughtered Hillary there? Bernie. And the colorful Democratic candidate in the district, state Senator Richard Ojeda, supported Bernie in the primary and Trump in the general-- just like so many WV-03 voters did. He's also created a unique brand for himself. That's likely to be the reddest district in the country won by a Democrat, but it's proof that if the DCCC keeps out of primaries, anything can happen.

And today's last poll-- this one from CNN-- was more bad news for Trumpanzee and his GOPzee. Over the last month, Señor T’s approval rating has dropped six points 36% from 42%. His disapproval is now 58%. And for Republicans running in the midterms, the worst part of this is that Trump's troubles are coming from... independent voters. "Among independents, the drop has been sharper, from 47% approval last month to 31% now. That's 4 points below his previous 2018 low of 35% approval among political independents in CNN polling, and 1 point below his previous all-time low among independents in CNN polling, reached in November 2017."sn't around messing up races and thwarting the wave, virtually anything can happen.

Russian Hacking Is Very Real-- Who's In Charge Of Directing The U.S. Targeting? Kushner?

Rohrabacher-- a poor fool doomed by his own inept allies?

The Republican gubernatorial candidate in Pennsylvania, Scott Wagner, joked that the Russian government will help him beat Tom Wolf in November. Polling indicates that that's basically the only way he would win. It's not actually that funny-- especially when Putin-Gate has spawned Putin-Gate II and that the GRU is now targeting conservatives as well as normal candidates. Microsoft claims to have uncovered broadening threats to Democracy. Microsoft president Brad Smith: "It’s clear that democracies around the world are under attack. Foreign entities are launching cyber strikes to disrupt elections and sow discord. Unfortunately, the internet has become an avenue for some governments to steal and leak information, spread disinformation, and probe and potentially attempt to tamper with voting systems. We saw this during the United States general election in 2016, last May during the French presidential election, and now in a broadening way as Americans are preparing for the November midterm elections."

Microsoft's Digital Crimes Unit, he wrote, is on the case. They're making headway against Fancy Bear (aka- APT28 and Strontium). "We’re concerned," he wrote, "that these and other attempts pose security threats to a broadening array of groups connected with both American political parties in the run-up to the 2018 elections." So what's this all mean?

A group affiliated with the Russian government created phony versions of six websites, including some related to the US Senate, with an aim to hack into the computers of people who were tricked into visiting, according to Microsoft.

...The effort by the notorious APT28 hacking group, which has been publicly linked to a Russian intelligence agency and actively interfered in the American 2016 presidential election, underscores the aggressive role Russian operatives are playing ahead of the midterm congressional elections in the US.

APT28 specialises in information warfare or hacking and disinformation operations. "APT" refers to "advanced persistent threat" in cybersecurity circles.

US officials have repeatedly warned that the November vote is a major focus for interference efforts.

Trump and his GOP enablers are purposely leaving the back door open for the Russians, refusing to fund statewide efforts to protect American voting systems and firing top level specialists in cyber-security. A question I've always had-- and will ultimately be answered (or not) by the Mueller investigation-- is who in Trump-world has been helping the Russians with their targeting? I had to laugh when the first reports came out that hackers-- presumably Russians-- interfered in two Orange County Democratic primaries, one to pick a candidate to run in CA-45 against lockstep rubber-stamp Mimi Walters and one to pick a candidate to run against Putin's favorite congressman (and possible Kremlin spy) Dana Rohrabacher in CA-48. Both operations were badly botched.

They were botched because of the targeting. Whomever told the Russians to go after Hans Keirstead in CA-48 and Dave Min in CA-45 were not doing anything to help their Republican opponents. Both Keirstead and Min looked good-- at least inside the Beltway-- on paper. But both turned out-- in real life outside the Beltway-- to be abysmal candidates. Keirstead has a great resume and the DCCC recruited him, but he was a total stiff on the campaign trail and the DCCC abandoned him and leaked opposition research about a sex scandal. Early on, someone clueless inside the Beltway could have easily imagined he would be the strongest candidate against Rohrabacher. As a consequence, they may have blundered into harming Rohrabacher's chances by boosting the much stronger candidate, Harley Rouder, who neat Keirstead narrowly and is likely to beat Rohrabacher in November.

A similar thing happened in CA-45, where a Schumer puppet, Dave Min, may have been perceived in DC (and thereby Moscow) as the stronger Democrat against Walters. But as the campaign unfolded, he turned out to be a miserable politician, way too nasty and vicious to win anything. If the Russian hackers were trying to help Walters, they doomed her by knocking out Min. Instead, Katie Porter, who won the primary, is likely to end Walters' political career in November. Sounds like Kushner-in-law's work. His fingerprints are all over these two collusion operations.


UPDATE: Will Putin Save The GOP From The Voters?

Trump seems to think so. Writing for Yahoo News today, Alexander Nazaryan reported that Trump asked the Senate to block a bill to strengthen the country's defenses against electoral interference. Trump got Roy Blunt (R-MO) to stop the bill in committee yesterday. To me this is way more impeachable than paying off hookers with campaign cash.

The Secure Elections Act, introduced by Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) in December 2017, had co-sponsorship from two of the Senate’s most prominent liberals, Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) as well as from conservative stalwart Lindsey Graham (R-S) and consummate centrist Susan Collins (R-ME).

...As it currently stands, the legislation would grant every state’s top election official security clearance to receive threat information. It would also formalize the practice of information-sharing between the federal government-- in particular, the Department of Homeland Security-- and states regarding threats to electoral infrastructure. A technical advisory board would establish best practices related to election cybersecurity. Perhaps most significantly, the law would mandate that every state conduct a statistically significant audit following a federal election. It would also incentivize the purchase of voting machines that leave a paper record of votes cast, as opposed to some all-electronic models that do not. This would signify a marked shift away from all-electronic voting, which was encouraged with the passage of the Help Americans Vote Act in 2002.

“Paper is not antiquated,” Lankford says. “It’s reliable.”

A paper trail is exactly what Putin and Trump-- and apparently, the Republican Party-- don't want. This is treason.

It Looks Very Much Like Harley Rouda Will Finally Rid Congress-- And Orange County-- Of Putin's Favorite Congressman

Harley Rouda is one lucky guy-- and not just because his Orange County opponent happens to be Putin's favorite congressman-- just ask Republican Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy-- but because of a brand new campaign hire. The new hire is Jack D'Annibale, formerly communications director for Ted Lieu, who's district is just a few miles up the coast-- on the other side of Trump National Golf Club in Rancho Palos Verdes. D'Annibale just started but he's is up and running in a big way-- best campaign outreach of the week:

Harley Rouda’s Top 5 Moments This Week (A.K.A. Dana Rohrabacher’s NOT Top 5)

Hi, there! Jack D'Annibale, Harley Rouda's Director of Communications here.

It’s been a momentous week for Harley’s campaign to replace Rep. Dana Rohrabacher in California’s 48th Congressional District-- and that’s an understatement.

In case you missed it, below are Harley's Top 5 Moments this week.

1. A+ rated Monmouth poll declares Harley’s campaign for Congress is "neck and neck" with incumbent Dana Rohrabacher

Harley registered 46% support to Rohrabacher’s 43%-- and that’s despite Republicans’ natural registration advantage in the district.

The poll also signaled higher Democratic enthusiasm in the district, which isn’t hard to believe given the other candidate spent his week endorsing the notion of arming children (See Number 2).

Why is Harley leading the race? Rep. Ted Lieu had some ideas:

2. Rohrabacher Endorses Arming Children on Sacha Baron Cohen’s Who Is America?

That’s not a typo.

This week, in footage from Sacha Baron Cohen’s new SHOWTIME show Who Is America?, Rohrabacher advocated for arming kindergarteners with weapons.



Not only was Rohrabacher duped into taking a fake interview with an extremist pro-gun group, Rohrabacher’s shameful testimonial in support of the fictional “Kinderguardians” program horrified just about everyone, including the hosts of The View. They vocalized the nation’s thoughts about Rohrabacher with choice quotes such as…

“This scares the HECK out of me!”-- Sunny Hostin

“I full-heartedly reject [Rohrabacher] on EVERY level.”-- Meghan McCain

And, a personal favorite… “WHY do they keep on electing him?”-- Sunny Hostin

In response to Rohrabacher's troubling comments, Harley said, "Instead of radical, deeply disturbing proposals that make our children less safe, families across the U.S. and in California’s 48th district deserve a Congressmember who will fight tirelessly to see that Capitol Hill finally does something to protect our communities by passing common sense gun safety reforms."


“Dana can try to walk back his comments or call them fake news, but that’s just a sad, cynical move straight out of the tired, politics-as-usual playbook. I am fighting to protect children from gun violence, not put them in the cross-hairs. That’s why I’m running for Congress.”

3. Rohrabacher confirmed as part of Russian Spy Investigation

Surprise, surprise…

On Wednesday, news broke that Dana Rohrabacher met with ally of Vladimir Putin in Russia in August of 2015, matching the account of accused spy Maria Butina’s FBI affidavit.

"The news that Dana Rohrabacher is now entwined in an FBI investigation of an accused 'Russian NRA spy' is deeply disturbing,” said Harley Rouda in a statement.

“The full truth about the connection between Dana's pro-Russian politics, his 2015 trip to Russia, and Moscow's relationship with the National Rifle Association must be known-- that's what every CA-48 family, what every American family, deserves."

What was Rohrabacher’s response to all of this? Panic.

4. “Putin’s Favorite Congressman” one-ups Trump in denying Russian hacking indictments and defending Putin’s right to look out for his interests

What prompted this Harley tweet? Let’s start from the beginning...

10 days before the US Department of Justice indicted 12 Russian military intelligence officers for the infamous hacks that roiled the Hillary Clinton Presidential campaign, Dana Rohrabacher gave an interview to Fox 11’s Elex Michaelson saying the hacks were an “inside job.”

1 disastrous press conference, 2 weeks, and 12 indictments later, Rohrabacher is still denying Russia’s role, while simultaneously defending Putin’s right to “[look] out for the interests of Russia.”

We agree, Dan. Folks in the 48th District should get to know Harley.

5. Last but not least-- Harley out-raises Rohrabacher 5-1 in second quarter fundraising haul

The cherry on top of a great week for Harley?

The fact that Harley outraised Rohrabacher 5 to 1 in the second quarter, raising $1.4 million to Rohrabacher’s $294,000.

And this is just the beginning.

With weeks like these, the momentum behind Harley’s is sure to continue growing at break-neck speed.

I had hardly finished reading D'Annibale's e-mail when the L.A.Times piled on with a Rohrabacher story of their own, this one about the on edge Republican "lashing out" at the press again. Reporters asked him about his involvement with arrested Russian spy Mariia Butina. When a reporter asked him about the meeting he had with the spy he spanned and accused the reporter of trying to divert attention away from something or other. Rohrabacher's office confirmed that he did meet with the spy in his office 3 years ago. The Times reported that "Rohrabacher ended the press conference without answering any questions on the Russia matter or immigration."