How A Progressive's Bumper Sticker Ended Up Next To Trump Bumper Stickers.

Washington's 5th congressional district takes up the entire eastern end of the state, from the Canadian border to the Oregon border and right along the Idaho border. The biggest population center is Spokane and most of the votes come from Spokane County, a swing county. The other three counties are Walla Walla, another swing county, Whitman, a blue county and Stevens, a red county. It's a winnable district, although Democrats have been doing badly there in recent years. Obama lost the district both times he ran and Trump crushed Hillary 52.2% to 39.1%. Last year, a former state legislator from the district, Lisa Brown, went toe-to-toe in the money-raising department with conservative incumbent Cathy McMorris Rodgers-- $5.7 million each-- but still lost by 9 points. Brown's moderate, New Dem message didn't work, not even in an anti-red wave election year.

This year's Democratic candidate, Chris Armitage, isn't a former legislator and isn't going to raise $5.7 million. Nor is he going to align with the New Dems or any other faction of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. Chris Armitage is a working class FDR kind of Democrat who is speaking to working class families about working class issues from a working class perspective. Blue America endorsed him today and he wrote this guest post to introduce himself.

Winning Back A "Trump District" With A Progressive Message
-by Chris Armitage

“What are we doing differently?” I get asked this often. My name is Christopher Armitage and I am a 27-year-old who has never run for office. As an Air Force Security Forces veteran, former first responder, and 911 operator, politics was not exactly a direction my life seemed to be headed.

In mid-December, I sat down with a family in our district. They told me about how their son died of stage 4 cancer at 19 years old. It was entirely preventable, but the insurance company would not approve payment for a test they deemed “exploratory.” By the time Colin told his football coach he wasn’t feeling well and was rushed to the hospital it would be too late. The cancer had, by the doctor’s measure, been advancing undetected since age 12 and would ultimately take his life at the young age of 19.

Once Colin's mother Trina finished sharing his story, I told her about how, while Active Duty, I had incredible insurance that involved no profit margins or insurance haggling. When a military doctor felt you should get a test, they sent you to get it because your safety was their top priority, not billing. When they sent us for those tests, the military doctors didn’t need to fill out endless forms to justify their referrals and recommendations. Doctors just focused on one thing-- being doctors to patients in need.

Why does someone come to a person running for office and share their story? Simple: advocacy and change. Because they hope to prevent future tragedies from hurting others like they have been hurt. So I told this family about how I was simultaneously receiving incredible military healthcare while I was helping a family member of my own out from under crippling medical debt. I told her I had met a woman two weeks before who was splitting a single insulin prescription between three family members. We talked about how our corrupt and predatory for-profit healthcare system is destroying lives in our communities every single day.

Concerned friends and family immediately asked: “How are you going to pay for it?” It’s a question we get daily anytime we bring up how critical a single-payer healthcare system is. But this is not something we expected to hear from a loved one to a grieving mother. It was hard for me to hear that question during such an emotionally charged discussion. However, as a mother who faced the preventable death of her son first hand, she has turned that tragedy into a life of advocacy and she kept telling us her son’s story. Once the conversation was done and everyone was leaving, one of Colin’s relatives walked up to me and surprised me with a big hug.

They said “I am a Trump supporter, and I disagree with you on some things, but I know you’re straightforward. I want to put your bumper sticker on my car next to my Trump bumper sticker.” He is a family man, works at an auto repair shop, and really wants to see healthcare and jobs come to his district.

What about the other bumper stickers out there? As a former 911 operator, the smallest of three brothers, and a stand up comic, I have been in many positions where avoiding physical confrontations was ideal. Early on in the campaign, we had the idea of running a Facebook ad targeted to Trump supporters. The ad had my picture on it and said “Mad at Democrats? Feel free to call and yell at one.” So, needless to say, someone must be pretty mad to call the number in that ad. They were.

Sure, some people cursed at me and hung up, but for those who stayed on the line? All my life experiences from serving in the military to staying on the phone talking people down from self-harm and suicide to getting a bully laughing became incredibly useful. I actually made some friends over those few days. Some of them I spent hours on the phone with. Most importantly, though, I discovered what was darkening people’s hearts. Economic despair, healthcare challenges, underemployment and unemployment, these are what we are all concerned about out here-- regardless of our political parties.

We have an interesting story from Washington State’s 5th congressional district. Former Speaker of the House Tom Foley (D) held this seat until the early ’90s until he was defeated by a Republican challenger who focused his campaign on term limits. Even in defeat, Tom Foley’s legacy still resonates here. A few months ago I met Sally, an 89-year-old fellow comedian who remembers Tom Foley’s first campaign, and she put me in touch with his widow, Heather. Both of these incredible women echoed the same sentiment on how he won even the most rural of counties: he did it by visiting every small town tavern across the district.

“Yeah, I know Tom. Saw him at the grocery store more than a few times” was a common refrain throughout the community. I doubt many members of Congress, let alone Speakers of the House, could claim to have such a close relationship with the working-class members of their district. He was the kind of man who would take a minute to chat with your 12-year-old child about whatever they wanted to talk about. Those are the conversations and relationships where a person shows their genuine passion and care for a community. Those are the barside chats and grocery store run-ins that win votes in our district.

Today, under 25 years of Republican House Representation in this district, we currently have counties with over 10% unemployment and more than 1/3rd of residents in some counties under the poverty line-- triple the national average. In Walla Walla public schools, over 60% of the students are on reduced or free lunch. We are struggling out here and we are feeling left behind by our representative. We are ready for representation that is part of this community and someone who keeps themselves accountable to the people of Eastern Washington.

We can win this race. My opponent is Trump’s Washington State Fundraising Chair, someone who has sought and received the endorsement of white nationalist leaders locally, who has abandoned us with bill after bill crafted to bring in more money for corporate donors while selling out our farmers, our families, our livelihoods.

We will win this race by bringing a campaign directly to the people that speaks to folks with respect and that demands accountability. Americans, regardless of their political party, know corruption is a problem in our political system. The same people who have continuously sold us out and fought to keep us poor for decades will not be the ones to fix this. We have to fix it ourselves. We will win by building a campaign focused on improving the lives of people who live here in Washington’s 5th District, not lobbyists and billionaires in D.C. That message resonates from the amber grain fields of the Palouse to the dense green forests in Colville.

This is what we are doing differently. This is why we are going to win.

Right Wing Terrorist In The Washington State Legislature Explains How To Divide Up The Booty They Steal After They Kill The Jews And Gays And Liberals

2018 Republicans-- Matt Shea and Cathy McMorris Rodgers

Between Spokane and the Idaho border you'll find the 4th legislative district. It's very rural. There's got to be a town there but I can't find one, although there was a post office of sorts in a town called Drygoon and in 1902 they changed the name from Drygoon to Colbert in honor of a postmaster named Harry Colbert. But I'm not certain if it's inside the district or not. Like I said, it's very rural. The state Rep from the 4th, Matthew Shea, is 44. He's beyond conservative. When his wife Lisa divorced him, she applied for an application of protection because he considered her a possession, not a possession like a lamp but a possession like the way it was in the Old Testament. Her court papers say he was very abusive, physically and emotionally and that he "insisted she walk on his left side because his sword, if he had one, would be on his right side." Refusing to get a job, he hosted a hate talk radio show on Patriot Radio twice a week. In 2008 he was elected to the state legislature, where he defines the far outer fringes of a Republican Party, whose uneducated and drugged-up base is consumed by insane conspiracy theories.

Why should Matt Shea matter to anyone out side of eastern Washington? Two reasons. On Wednesday, Shea admitted he had distributed a manifesto that strongly smacks of right-wing domestic terrorism, The Biblical Basis for War, and certainly makes it clear that Shea has been promoting violence against people who don't adhere to his extremist-- many would say psychotic-- ideology.

The Spokane County Sheriff, Ozzie Knezovich, sent the manifesto, which was written by Shea, "straight to the FBI" and noted that it "is not a Sunday school project or an academic study. It is a 'how to' manual consistent with the ideology and operating philosophy of the Christian Identity/Aryan Nations movement and the Redoubt movement of the 1990s." Shea prophesizes he will be elected president (of the U.S.) and that his assassination will lead to a civil war. You tell me, does this crackpot manifesto of his look like a call to prepare for violence and civil war? You can't put someone in prison for this stuff-- or even in a mental institution. It's up to his constituents to remove him from office, though.

Biblical Basis for War


1. God is a Warrior.

2. When is the time for war? When God says its time...Prayer Council.
3. Fight to win so you don’t have to fight again.

4. 4 Things to stay within God’s will:

a. Holy Cause;

b. HolyLeader;

c. Holy Army; and

d. HolyCamp.

5. 4 Ways to know its time to fight:

a. God reveals His will to the leader;

b. LeaderinquiresofGod...PrayerCouncil;

c. God puts it on the hearts of the people; or

d. Godstartsthefight.

6. Things for a Holy Army

a. Sacrifice/Worship/Prayer;

b. Circumcision/Saved;

c. Vow (consecration to the Lord);

d. Trumpets/Ark;

e. Atonement/Money; and

f. Praise to God Before/During/After.

7. 5 Facts of War:

a. War is a fact of life.

b. GodiswithusandthebattleisHis.
c. Numbers are inconsequential.

d. Armamentsareinconsequential.

e. Isaiah 57:1 – Why Righteous Men are Killed...

8. 4 Qualifications of a Warrior:

a. 18 years old or older;

b. AblebodiedMan;

c. Single Minded in Battle; and

d. StableHome.

9. 5 Exemptions from Service:

a. Training Family – New Home;

b. Newlyweds–NewWife;

c. Farmer – New Crops;

d. Scared–FearMeansaLackofFaith(OffertoLeave);or

e. Priests – Duty to Ministry in Temple.

10. Rules of War

a. Conduct a census of all able bodied males (18-45).

i. Identify Exemptions (see above).

ii. Appoint Captains of 10’s, 50’s, 100’s and 1000’s.

b. Avoidbloodshedifpossible.

c. Make an offer of Peace before declaring war.

i. Not a negotiation or compromise of righteousness.

ii. Must surrender on terms of justice and righteousness:


1. Stopallabortions;
2. Nosame-sexmarriage;
3. Noidolatryoroccultism;
4. Nocommunism;and

5. MustobeyBiblicallaw.


 iii. If they yield – must pay share of work or taxes.

 iv. If they do not yield – kill all males.

d. Warisnotwagedagainstnationsbutagainstman(noscorched 
earth or Sherman’s march to the sea).

 e. Cut down only non-food trees necessary for supplies (safeguard 
production over politics or retribution).

 f. Do not attack or kill productive citizens. They are your base of 
support after the enemy is defeated.

 g. Law of Booty

i. 1/2 went to those who fought.

ii. 1/2 went to those who didn’t.

iii. Divide evenly to the individuals...each gives tribute to Lord.

1. TithetoChurch&Ministry

2. NonetoGovernment–Removestemptationtofight.

3. Mayuseyourparttogivetothosewhohelped.

4. Commanders received the same portion. If a greater portion then they would have an incentive to fight.

11. Organizational Structure for War

a. Captains of 5/10/50/100/1000

i. 5 = Team Leader (Corporal)

ii. 10 = Squad Leader (Sergeant)

iii. 50 = Platoon Leader (Lieutenant/Sergeant First Class)

iv. 100 = Company Commander (Captain/First Sergeant)

v. 1000 = Battalion Commander (Colonel/Sergeant Major)

b. SmallStandingArmy(QuickReaction&ShellLeadership).

c. Only Muster in War Time.

12. Biblically Dealing with Tyranny

a. Tyranny is never a divinely appointed means of government.

b. AtyrantissomeonewhoruleswithoutGod.

c. Tyranny is not a lawful form of government.

d. “Godless civil rulers are no more than bands of robbers.” St. Aug.

e. When the rule of law dies as sin prevails throughout the land, 
tyranny is not far behind.

f. Book of Judges – Sin = Tyranny.

g. Deuteronomy 28:1 – Blessings for Obedience.

h. Deuteronomy28:15–CursesofDisobedience.

i. Judges 3 – The Lord will test you to see if you Obey Him.

j. No such thing as “rebelling against tyranny.” RESTORATION

k. Deuteronomy 4:34 – God brings His people out of tyranny.

i. God doesn’t use majorities. The majority is usually wrong.

ii. Hebrews 11:32 – Heroes of Faith that conquered tyrants.

l. Options:

i. Use of Deception


1. Notgenerallyspeakingonlyveryspecifically.

2. Avoidingbeinganaccomplicetosin.

3. Donotowethetruthtosomeonewhowillabuseit.


 ii. Avoidance

1. Thisdoesnotmeancowardice.

2. Conflictwithtyrannyalsoispreventingwickedness 
from harming property, lives, family when you don’t 
have the strength or resources to overcome.


 iii. Assassination & Sabotage


1. Assassinationtoremovetyrantsisjust,notmurder.

2. 2Chron.23:12–DietrichBonhoeffer–PlotforHitler.


 iv. Armed Resistance & Guerilla War.

m. Considerations Before Beginning War – Prayer & Contemplation

i. Strength and Resources.

ii. Ability to go full-scale on a long-term basis to win.

iii. Not a temporary action based on emotion.

iv. Review the Declaration of Causes and Necessity.

v. Reasonable hope of winning, God is on your side. If not wait.

vi. Is God directing? Ex. 33:14-15, 2 Chronicles 7:14, Gamaliel.

vii. People are tired of tyranny & sin w/ hearts set on Freedom? OR People accustomed tyranny and don’t know who God is?

viii. Micah – Patriots who want to serve God not “libertine.”

13. Warrior Priests

a. Living Sacrifice.

b. Intercessionthroughprayerandaction.

c. Adam was told to tend and guard (“Abad & Shamar”).
d. Warrior=Guardianship.
e. 2 Chronicles 23:8-9 – Armed Guards & weapons in the tabernacle.

f. Prayer Humility, Wisdom, Courage, and Protection.

g. James 4:8 – Draw near to God and purge double mindedness.

h. James4:17–Notdoingtherightthingissin.

i. Proverbs 21:31 – “Prepare your horse for battle, but the battle is 
the Lord’s

14. Freedom is in Jesus Christ.
 Where the Spirit of God is, there is Liberty.

Last month, writing for Rolling Stone-- and before the deranged manifesto leaked-- Leah Sottile reported that Something’s Brewing in the Deep Red West. Shea is the chair of the state Republican caucus and he's batshitcrazy, frothing at the mouth for a race war or a religious war, or a war against the media, or a war of independence... just some kind of war. Sottile reported that "in his nine years in office he has allied with some of the most high-profile conspiracy theorists and anti-government extremists in the American West: from Cliven Bundy and his sons to a neo-Confederate Idaho preacher to the head of the Oath Keepers, an extremist group that believes “the United States is collaborating with a one-world tyrannical conspiracy called the New World Order.”

“I don’t think that the extent of [Shea’s] connections are widely known,” says Rep. Marcus Riccelli, a three-term Democrat in the state legislature who represents Spokane. “It’s a real statement of the Republican Party that someone with his extreme views has risen in the ranks of leadership.”

Long before President Trump deemed the press the “enemy of the people,” Matt Shea was refusing to speak with the media and airing his concern over conspiracy theories like FEMA camps with InfoWars’ Alex Jones. Shea also organized the Spokane chapter of the anti-Muslim ACT for America, which the Southern Poverty Law Center classifies as a hate group. And for the past few summers, Shea has spoken at a secretive religious community run by a man who was a foundational figure in the Christian Identity movement, which, according to the Anti-Defamation League, believes white Europeans to be the lost tribes of Israel and considers Jews to be the offspring of Eve and Satan.

...People have been talking about hacking off the eastern part of Washington-- from the Cascades to Idaho-- since at least 1915. But recently, creating a bastion of God-fearing, gun-toting, canned-food eating whiteness where conservatives can survive the End Times has been embraced by survivalists and dubbed the American Redoubt-- an idea that’s gained enough interested parties to demand an actual corner of the real estate market. Though Shea’s Liberty idea hasn’t gained much traction in the Statehouse, it’s red meat for anti-government extremists at a time when some Americans really are viewing this area of the country as the last remaining holdout for the type of America they think can be great again... “There’s a deep divide within the Spokane County Republican Party between its mainstream wing and its more constitutionalist wing,” Clayton says. “The constitutionalist wing is heavily influenced by Christian nationalists and some white-supremacist elements… they have a particular view of the Constitution and it’s all steeped in this idea of liberty. It’s anti-statism. It’s anti-government.”

Last August, Daniel Walters painted a picture of how the seemingly "mainstream conservative," Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, a key Ryan lieutenant and Trump enabler, plays footsie with these racists, Nazis and terrorists.

This year, one of the crazed fascists, Jered Bonneau, ran against McMorris Rodgers in the primary. Shea hadn't endorsed her in 2014 or 2016 and Bonneau expected fellow lunatic Shea to endorse him this year. But McMorris Rodgers wanted Shea's endorsement against Bonneau and, for some reason no one seems to know, Shea gave it to her.

It shows how, even as McMorris Rodgers has distanced herself from the alt-right, she's been aligning herself more closely with a different part of the GOP fringe-- the patriot movement-- as she gets ready to face her first truly competitive election.

Even though McMorris Rodgers is nearly certain to survive the top-two primary, her performance-- and the performance of her Democratic competitor, former state Sen. Majority Leader Lisa Brown-- could have major impacts on fundraising and voter enthusiasm. If McMorris Rodgers crushes Brown in the primary, it could hobble the Democrat for the general election. But if Bonneau-- or fellow Trump-loving conservative Dave Saulibio-- gained traction it could split the vote.

...“I reached out to Matt Shea to talk about some of the others that were in the race," McMorris Rodgers told the Spokesman-Review. “And in the course of that conversation, he let me know that he was going to be supporting me.”

Read the rest of the eye-popping story. Or don't. But, if you can, vote for or, in any way you can, support Lisa Brown, who would be a great candidate for Congress even if there were no Matt Shea or Cathy McMorris Rodgers. On Tuesday, here's another race where Nate Silver's model should be proven woefully inadequate for accurate political forecasting.

Will Their Opposition To Healthcare Kill The GOP November 6th?

One of the funniest moments in the election debate this cycle-- at least for me-- came when Arizona congresswoman, Martha McSally, a garden variety Trump rubber-stamp who had voted to repeal protections for pre-existing conditions several times, was cornered by a reporter asking her to square her consistent record against healthcare with her promise now-- as she runs for U.S. Senate-- to protect people with pre-existing conditions from the greed of insurance companies. After lying for a few minutes to a reporter who kept pointing out her votes, she finally said something to the effect of "Can't you ask me about something voters are interested in, like the Caravan?" True, Fox News and hate talk radio hosts are interested in the Caravan... but voters? Not so much. They're more interested in Republicans trying to take away their healthcare.

In TX-10, Mike Siegel is campaign for Congress on a platform that includes Medicare for All. His opponent, Michael McCaul is a Trump enabler who has voted to destroy Medicare and to strip away protections for pre-existing conditions. "I have friends and family who would not be alive, and would not have healthcare, but for the Affordable Care Act's protections for pre-existing conditions," Mike told us. "My cousin received a liver transplant that his private insurance refused to pay for, thanks to the ACA. My opponent Michael McCaul voted repeatedly to repeal the ACA without having any replacement in place. The differences between us could not be more stark, and the choice for voters is clear." This is the ad Mike has been running on social media in his district:



In Omaha, progressive Democrat Kara Eastman has had to confront this bullshit head-on, as her opponent, anti-healthcare fanatic and desperate, compulsive liar Don Bacon (R-NE), has tried to pose as a protector of preexisting conditions-- even though he voted against protecting them every single time he could. "My opponent," she told us, "voted 'Hell Yes' for the AHCA. He claims this would have protected people with pre-existing conditions. However, the Washington Post gave this claim 3 PINOCCHIOS as the law would have allowed states the option to seek waivers that would nullify this promise."



The new Ipsos poll released by Reuters yesterday shows that 58% of likely voters want to keep ObamaCare in place and "eight in 10 likely voters from each major party want to protect coverage for people with existing conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes or cancer." I wonder how long before Trump and his sycophants start claiming they support it too. And have always supported it.

With the Nov. 6 elections looming, Democrats are reminding voters of Republicans’ often-repeated promises to repeal the 2010 law. Many Republican candidates are softening their tone or removing website references decrying what they long derided as “Obamacare,” according to candidates, analysts and healthcare experts in both parties.

As Democrats seek to take control of Congress, they see Republicans as having a particularly weak spot on healthcare. Sixty-seven of the 73 most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the House of Representatives voted at least once to eliminate the ACA and its protections for pre-existing conditions, according to the Center for American Progress Action Fund.



Some of those votes date back to the Obama administration, though his successor, Republican President Donald Trump, also campaigned on a promise to undo the law. A repeal attempt after Trump took office last year failed.

Opinion polls show Democrats as having a chance to achieve the net gain of 23 seats they would need to take a majority in the House, but facing a longer shot at picking up the two seats they need to take control of the Senate.

Democratic activists said the repeated Republican attempts to repeal the ACA provide a powerful tool to motivate voters.

“Healthcare has an ability to move people into action,” said Ben Wikler, Washington director of liberal activist group MoveOn. “It is turning people out in town hall meetings ... getting people to make hundreds of thousands of phone calls and getting voters to the polls.”

One sign of Democratic focus: 54.5 percent of Democrats’ federal election ads from Sept. 18 to Oct. 15 mentioned healthcare, far more than the 8.7 percent that did so at the same time in 2010, according to the Wesleyan Media Project.

Some 33.9 percent of Republican federal election ads mentioned healthcare during this period and 31.5 percent in 2010. Republicans took control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections, boosted in part by opposition to the ACA, which had become law earlier that year.

While the aim of the ACA was to expand healthcare insurance to reach millions of Americans who did not have any coverage, Republicans campaigned for years against it as government overreach, especially its requirement that people buy health insurance or pay a financial penalty.

U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill has made healthcare the focus of her campaign in Missouri against Republican challenger Josh Hawley. The state’s attorney general, Hawley has faced criticism from individuals and healthcare groups for saying he supports covering pre-existing conditions even after suing to end the ACA.

“Everyone is feeling anxious and worried about the future of healthcare,” McCaskill said in a telephone interview. “It’s beginning to dawn on people that the Republicans didn’t have a replacement (for the ACA), and that they have no ideas on how they could do it better.”

Hawley ran for state attorney general by emphasizing his role in a lawsuit against the ACA that went to the U.S. Supreme Court, and also worked on a team that successfully challenged the ACA’s requirement to provide contraceptives coverage.

Despite Republican opposition, eight years after its passage many Americans have seen some benefits from the law.

“By the time Republicans last year tried to repeal the law, it had become real, people had benefited,” said Brad Woodhouse, executive director of Protect Our Care. He said at least 20 Republican incumbents have “scrubbed” their websites to appear more supportive of the law.

In Kentucky, Representative Andy Barr has called his vote to repeal the ACA “a great day for freedom in America” but now plays up his support of programs to prevent and treat opioid addiction. In Maine, Representative Bruce Poliquin dropped a promise to “end Obamacare” and now talks about protecting hospitals.



Ted Cruz, a U.S. senator from Texas, said during a debate this month against Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke that he would protect pre-existing illnesses, despite having once forced a shutdown of the federal government over ACA repeal efforts.

In a hotly contested upstate New York congressional race, Democratic challenger Antonio Delgado has hammered his opponent, first-term Republican John Faso, over his vote to repeal the ACA.

“John Faso, despite voting to take away protections, is running TV ads saying the exact opposite,” he said during a recent town hall meeting. “How can you look someone in the face and say, ‘No, I didn’t do that.’ After a while, you’re just lying to our faces blatantly. This is too real to lie about.”

Faso defended his vote in an interview, saying New York state law already ensures patients with pre-existing conditions are protected, regardless of federal legislation.

Despite support for specific elements of the law, 52 percent of likely voters told Reuters/Ipsos they view the U.S. healthcare system as “poor” or “terrible.”

Primary Turn-out Surged. But Far More For Democrats Than For Republicans

Trumpty Dumpty by Nancy Ohanian

On Wednesday Axios posted a fascinating chart about the blue vs red primary surge in swing districts this cycle. You can probably read it if you click on the image:

They compared 19 battleground House districts to see how much of a primary vote surge there was for each party in each district. And there was a surge for each party in each district-- but the surges were disproportionately stronger for the Democrats in every single one of the 19 districts, all of which have Republican congressmen now

Now let me make a few things clear that Axios didn't look at. First off, even in districts where there were non-competitive primaries-- take WA-08-- for example, there were much bigger Democratic voter surges than Republican. The incumbent, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, saw a modest 1.6x jump from the 2014 midterms, the second biggest of any of the 19 districts for a Republican. But that was dwarfed by the 2.8x jump for Democrats who came out in droves to vote for Lisa Brown. And that isn't an outlier... that was the story in every one of these districts.



Look at CA-45, the Orange County district where Trump rubber-stamp Mimi Walters is desperately clinging to life. There were no other Republicans in the primary. However there were 4 Democrats participating, from a right-of-center New Dem, Dave Min, to Katie Porter, who won. But all that activity drive up Democratic participation from 2014 3.3 times among Democrats but just 1.4 times among Republicans.

How about where was no incumbent and there was a real Republican contest? Let's look at the CA-49 race (southern Orange County and northern San Diego County). Darrell Issa had announced he was retiring and the primary was wild-- 9 Republicans and 4 Democrats. You'd think all those Republicans would drive up turnout, right? But no. Democratic turnout zoomed up 2.7 times while GOP turnout lagged at 1.5 times.

It was even worse for Republicans in WI-01, where Paul Ryan withdrew from the race. There were 6 Republicans in the hunt but just 2 Democrats. 61,087 Democrats participated and just 59,870 Republicans. Democrats were so charged up to vote for Randy Bryce-- 36,397 did-- that Democratic voter participation surged two and a half times, while barely ticking up among Republicans at all-- 0.9 times. Ryan's handpicked candidate, corporate lawyer Brian Steil, was endorsed by Trump but he only managed to get 30,883 votes.

There was no circumstance or combination of circumstances that created a greater-- or even equal-- surge among Republicans than there was for Democrats.

Axios says this matters because 'poor turnout has been the scourge of Democrats' efforts to win congressional elections in the last decade. But this data suggests that a surge of anti-Trump enthusiasm could boost their turnout in November-- and not just in already-blue areas, but in parts of the country that could deliver control of the House to the Democrats."

OK, they have that right, but you know who's all wet? The DCCC. Notice that what's driving this is "anti-Trump enthusiasm," not enthusiasm for the shit candidates the DCCC recruited or for the so-called message the Democrats are supposedly pushing. The ridiculously unpopular "big tent" party is incapable to coming top with a popular message-- say Medicare-For-All or Job Guarantee or free state colleges-- because the DCCC recruits so many conservative Blue Dogs and New Dems from the Republican wing of the party. The only thing the DCCC is good at is digging a grave for the Democratic Party and setting in motion another anti-blue wave for the 2022 midterms. When Pelosi listed her 3 inane priorities, the most memorable one was also the most horrible: PayGo. There is no blue wave-- just an anti-red wave.

So how many of these 19 seats will the Democrats take? Probably 17. Possibly 18. And 19 wouldn't be a shock.

What Happened In Washington State On Tuesday?

Well we still don't know all the details. Only around 70% of the votes were counted by Thursday morning in Washington's top-two jungle primaries. But in the statewide race-- Maria Cantwell's reelection-- about twice as many Democrats voted as Republicans. That filtered down to the three crucial congressional races as well. The big picture for the House is that there are 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans in the Washington House congressional delegation. None of the Democrat seats are in jeopardy. But 3 of the Republican seats are. There's a better than 50/50 chance that in January the Washington delegation will be 9 Democrats and one Republican (Dan Newhouse). These are the 4 Republican-held districts with their PVIs:

• WA-03 (Jaime Herrera Beutler): R+4
• WA-04 (Dan Newhouse): R+13
• WA-05 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers): R+8
• WA-08 (open- Dave Reichert): even

Trump won the third district with 49.9%, won the fourth district with 57.9%, won the 5th district with 52.2% and lost the 8th district 44.7%. Thursday morning, Dave Wasserman from the Cook Report tweeted that the 3 districts with big urban/rural divides as exactly where Republicans are apt to be in trouble in November and used as examples the seats occupied by Herrera Beutler (Portland suburbs), McMorris Rodgers (Spokane) and Reichert (Seattle suburbs). Wasserman and most others who follow House elections closely attribute that to "pathetic Republican turnout, which then allows anti-Trump energy in suburbs to put Democrats in contention." That was the real story in Washington on Tuesday.

In the 8th district, Republican voters coalesced around Dino Rossi and with 77.6% of the precincts counted, he was the top voter getter with 49,071. When you combine his vote with the 2 other GOP candidates, the Republican vote in the 8th district adds up to 53,,570. But when you add up all the Democratic votes you get 58,032, a big warning sign for Rossi as we head towards November. At this point, I'd bet on Kim Schrier being the next member of Congress, not Dino Rossi.

The big deal race where no one thought there would be a real battle is WA-05, the eastern third of the state. It's a huge district that includes Spokane and a lot of rural and small-town Washington and the seat is occupied by Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the highest ranking Republican in the House, a dull Trump rubber stamp. Her Trump affinity score is a stunning 97.8, one of the most disgraceful in Congress-- total Trump enabler.

Two-thirds of the WA-05 voters live in Spokane, which was represented by Lisa Brown while she was the Majority Leader of the Washington state House. When she retired from the legislature she was named chancellor of Washington State University (Spokane), where her most important achievement was building a medical school that trains doctor for rural medicine, a crucial development in the lives of the people outside Spokane. On Tuesday she stunned the district by coming within one point of McMorris Rodger-- and that was before the story of McMorris' crackpot fundraiser with Devin Nunes broke. With 78.6% of precincts counted last night (162 of 206), McMorris had 68,475 votes  (47.8%) to Brown's 67,040 (46.8%).

Back in April, the Spokesman-Review was already predicting a tight race, largely based on voters' mostly negative views of Trump.

The race between U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers and former WSU Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown is shaping up to be a bruising race, said H. Stuart Elway of Elway Research Inc.

In a recent survey of 403 registered voters in the district, incumbent McMorris Rodgers had a 6-percentage-point lead over Brown, with 44 percent saying they plan to vote for the Republican incumbent and 38 percent saying they plan to vote for the Democratic challenger. Another 3 percent said they plan to vote for someone else, and 16 percent are undecided.

The overall poll has a margin of error of 5 percentage points, so the race is within the margin and McMorris Rodgers’ lead is “not statistically significant,” Elway said. Being under 50 percent is a worry for any incumbent.

...One of the biggest indicators of how survey respondents say they are likely to vote was their view of the job President Trump is doing. Half of the people polled said they disapprove of the job Trump is doing, while 45 percent said they approve.

When asked whether they “strongly” or “somewhat” approve or disapprove of the job he’s doing, men were about equally divided, with 26 percent saying they strongly approve and 30 percent saying they strongly disapprove.

Yesterday WXLY reported that new numbers have been going better for Brown. "As of Wednesday evening, the Spokane County Elections Office announced that incumbent Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers, a Republican, had 44.25 percent of the vote while Lisa Brown, a Democrat had 50.93 percent of the vote... Typically, primary elections typically see 30 percent of voters cast their ballots at most, but yesterday some 45 percent decided to make their voices heard. “We've seen turnout just skyrocket,” shared Spokane County auditor Vicky Dalton. Please consider contributing to Brown's campaign by clicking on the 2018 Blue America congressional thermometer on the right.

Even before the new numbers had been released, the Spokesman-Review reported that Washington Republicans are in big trouble.

Up and down the long primary ballot, there were signs of unusual Democratic strength and few Republican bulwarks. They start, of course, with the 5th Congressional District, where Democratic challenger Lisa Brown is fewer than 600 votes behind incumbent Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers at the end of the first night’s count.

...In southwest Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler is at 41 percent, about 5,000 votes ahead of Democrat Carolyn Long. But like Brown, Long has a lead in Clark County, the home of Vancouver, and unlike Brown, she split the Democratic vote with three other candidates.

In the 8th Congressional District-- a suburban, exurban and rural Republican stronghold of King and Pierce counties that was made even stronger in the most recent redistricting by reaching across the Cascades to add Chelan, Douglas and Kittitas counties-- Republican Dino Rossi finished on top of a crowded race for an open seat. Democrat Kim Schrier, a physician, has a lead of less than 1,400 votes for the second spot. But Democrats Jason Rittereiser, a deputy prosecutor, and Shannon Hader, a public health official, finished third and fourth, and the combined total of those three is greater than Rossi’s total at this point.

If Rossi can’t capture the seat in November, it would be the first time it wasn’t in Republican hands since it was created after the 1980 census.

...In Spokane County, Democrats fared better than they have for years in some races, particularly in the 6th Legislative District. Jessa Lewis, a single mom and former national delegate for Bernie Sanders, is nearly 500 votes ahead of Jeff Holy, former law enforcement officer and a three-term House member trying to move up to the state Senate. Kay Murano, an executive director of the Low Income Housing Consortium, is leading incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Volz, the chief deputy county treasurer, by almost 1,500 votes.

Nunes Should Resign From Congress-- And Take Cathy McMorris Rodgers With Him

This morning, conservative writer Jennifer Rubin penned an OpEd, Devin Nunes, Trump's Political Stooge, Is At It Again, based on the Maddow report last night. If you missed it, watch the video above. She wrote that "The Post reports on the secretly recorded remarks of Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) at a fundraiser for Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA)":

[Nunes] appears to have moved from criticizing the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election to strategizing about how to blunt its impact should it imperil President Trump...

In comments captured in an audio recording aired Wednesday by The Rachel Maddow Show, Nunes laid out in stark terms the rationale for preserving the GOP majority in Congress.

“If [Attorney General Jeff] Sessions won’t unrecuse and [special counsel Robert S. Mueller III] won’t clear the president, we’re the only ones, which is really the danger,” Nunes said… “I mean, we have to keep all these seats,” Nunes added. “We have to keep the majority. If we do not keep the majority, all of this goes away.”

Nunes also suggested the impeachment of Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein is just a matter of “timing,” claiming that impeachment (which has yet to be formally taken up) would impede the Senate confirmation of Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. (It’s hard to tell if Nunes is offering a weak, illogical excuse for not impeaching Rosenstein or is promising that Rosenstein will get impeached if the GOP keeps its majority in the House.)

Nunes also seemed to imply that a candidate [McMorris Rodgers in this case] would be in trouble if a foreign national gave a candidate stolen information that the candidate later released. (“Well, if that’s the case, then that’s criminal.”) Like Trump, Rudy Giuliani and so many Trump spinners, Nunes seems unaware that soliciting something of value from a foreigner to be used in a campaign is illegal, whether the valuable item is stolen or not.

There is nothing illegal in Nunes’s admissions, nor do they seem particularly new. All but Trump partisans realize that Nunes is acting as the president’s political stooge, not as the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. We knew he cared only about protecting Trump, not the country, when he made up the “unmasking” scandal, put out a patently misleading memo concerning the FISA warrant application to conduct surveillance on Carter Page, started demanding confidential documents relating to an ongoing investigation (of Trump and his cronies), had a role in outing a confidential intelligence source and began his crusade to smear the FBI. The admissions, however, do reveal Rodgers, a member of the House leadership, to be joined at the hip with Nunes, perfectly content to let him run amok as a partisan hack. (She at one point seems to try to bolster Nunes’s excuse that they cannot impeach Rosenstein because the Senate would have to take it up and divert attention from the Kavanaugh confirmation.)

House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-WI) has played dumb when asked about Nunes’s antics. That’s for the Intel Committee. Not really aware of that. Not something I know much about. That’s preposterous. Not only do Ryan and Rodgers know exactly what Nunes is up to; they are also more than willing to let him raise money for them and to allow him to pursue his base-- pleasing partisan gamesmanship. In short, Ryan and Rodgers are weak, non-leaders who haven’t the nerve or the sense of obligation to remove Nunes from his chairmanship to protect the country’s national security interests. Without Rodgers and Ryan, we might have a responsible House Intelligence Committee chairman.

Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) tweeted, “Under our Constitution, the duty of Congress is not to clear the President. The duty of Congress is to be a check and balance on the Executive Branch, and to pursue the facts wherever they may lead.” He added, “Devin Nunes should resign for perverting the oath he took.” True, but the very same thing could be said of Ryan and Rodgers, who indulge Nunes. None of them seems to understand the oath of office. If we want representatives to uphold their oaths and quit acting like Trump’s TV lawyers, voters will have to turn the House over to the Democrats. There is no way on Earth that Ryan, Rodgers and Nunes are ever going to put country over party.

Nunes and McMorris Rodgers seem prepared to commit treason on behalf of Trump. They should both resign. I'm not especially a fan of Andrew Janz but he would certainly make a better congressman than Nunes. And McMorris' opponent, Lisa Brown, is one of the best candidates for Congress running anywhere. She's likely to win the contest between them anyway.

Let's Watch 2 Friday Night Videos

The first video is the first TV ad for the Chicagoland district (IL-03) by progressive reformer Marie Newman, the Democrat working to unseat Blue Dog Dan Lipinski, one of the most pro-Trump Democrats in Congress. It's pretty self evident what Marie is doing to create a plausible narrative to replace Lipinski. Recent polling shows that if the messaging in the video gets out to voters in the district, Lipinski will be defeated. Blue America endorsed Newman over a year ago and we have been imploring progressives to contribute to her campaign. See that thermometer a couple of paragraphs down? You can use that to contribute to her campaign. Meanwhile Lipinski's labor support is finally starting to crumble. The SEIU dumped him today and the teachers unions and nurses unions will be likely to be next. In the end he'll probably wind up with nothing but the Republican-oriented building trades unions.

The second video (down the page) isn't an ad. It's a live video shot by an independent group, Save Our Healthcare. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is a big deal in Washington-- perhaps these days, less so in Eastern Washington, which is preparing to defeat her and replace her with Lisa Brown, the former majority leader of the state Senate and end-Chancellor of Washington State University. As Joel Connelly explained on Wednesday for Seatle PI readers, this district, usually just ceded two the gOP without a fight, is going to be one of those ground-zero congressional districts in November-- even if no one has alerted Pelosi and her DCCC yet. "'Follow the money!' is a rule of American politics, wrote Connelly, "and in 2018 the path of political dollars is leading to the Inland Empire-- Spokane and Eastern Washington. The latest Federal Election Commission campaign money filings show a donnybrook shaping up between Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), a Trump backer and member of the House Republican leadership, and her Democratic challenger Lisa Brown. The advantage belongs to the incumbent. At year's end, McMorris Rodgers had $1.069 million in the bank, compared to $450,933 for Brown. McMorris Rodgers took in $587,542 in the last quarter of 2017, while Brown raised $383,871."

In a "normal" year Connelly would be correct. The advantage would be McMorris Rodger's, but this isn't a "normal" year. We're going into a wave election-- an anti-Trump, anti-Republican wave election. Being member of Paul Ryan's inner circle is toxic this year. But more important is some research I've done into wave elections. It shows in both Democratic weaves (like 2006) and Republican waves (like 2010), money doesn't determine who has the advantage, Incumbents as whose part the wave is aimed at, can spent five times more than the challengers are still lose. The challenger does need to have enough money to get her message out effectively-- and Brown is certainly doing that. Outspending her isn't going to save McMorris Rodgers. Base enthusiasm means more than dollars and cents this cycle. And Brown has it; McMorris doesn't.

The 5th Congressional District of Eastern Washington hasn't had a Democratic member of Congress since House Speaker Tom Foley was narrowly upset in 1994. Donald Trump carried the district in 2016, while McMorris Rodger was reelected by a 60-40 margin.

But the Democratic Party is coming back to life, witness turnout of 459 people at a Spokane training session for Brown earlier this month.

The reason is Donald Trump. McMorris Rodgers endorsed him during a May, 2016, stopover in Spokane, and has since welcomed him at appearances before Republican colleagues in Washington, D.C.

The first hint of opposition came at a 2017 Martin Luther King Day ceremony in Spokane, where McMorris Rodgers was greeted with chants of "Save Our Health Care."



Of the $383,871 raised by Brown, $348,786 or 90 percent came from 2, 389 individual donors, three quarters of them from Eastern Washington. (Brown had a fundraiser in Seattle earlier this month, with another scheduled for a Belltown condo this weekend.)

By contrast, of the $587,542 raised by McMorris Rodgers, $264,616 or 45 percent came from individuals, while political committees (PACs) gave $199,500 to the incumbent. Transfers from authorized accounts made up the balance.

The McMorris Rodgers campaign dispersed $250,622 during the last quarter of 2017, although the election is not until November of 2018.

Brown is an educator, former majority leader in the Washington State Senate and until recently was chancellor of Washington State University-Spokane. She is also spending money, with $130,00 dispersed in the last quarter.

What do all these numbers mean?

A formerly safe Republican congressional district has become competitive, at least according to a recent grading by the authoritative Cook Political Report.

The political action committee of House Speaker Paul Ryan has opened an office in Spokane, to defend McMorris Rodgers. She is chairman of the House Republican Conference, a down-the-line advocate of repealing Obamacare and the Republicans' tax plan.

Republicans Are In A State Of Denial About What's Headed Their Way In November

Trygve Olson-- sounds like a Norwegian name-- is a national Republican strategist who is from Wisconsin’s 10th senatorial district, the site of the GOP donnybrook Tuesday. "If Republicans are losing districts like this," he said after the counting was done, "they should be in complete panic mode about the tsunami heading their way." In fact, Tuesday saw 4 special elections in very red districts that had gone to Trump in 2016 by very wide margins. Although just one flipped from red to blue, all 4 swung heavily towards the Democrats. These were the results:

• WI- SD-10-- a 26 point swing towards the Democrat
• WI- AD-58-- a 25 point swing towards the Democrat
• SC- HD-99-- a 15 point swing towards the Democrat
• IA- HD-6-- an 18 point swing towards the Democrat

So that's an unweighted average swing of about 20 points towards the Democrat in very Republican territory. Veteran GOP strategist Curt Anderson told The Hill that he's "not advising my clients to panic, but if it’s a choice between panic and complacency, I suggest panic. Every Republican candidate should approach this election as if we start 5 points behind." Really? 5 points? That sounds delusional. What will it look like if what happened on Tuesday happens on a federal level in November? The simple answer: the GOP will be wiped out. Let's take, for example, the 15 races where Blue America has endorsed candidates (or is in the final stage of vetting candidates) in districts held by a Republican incumbents that Trump won. So not included are the DCCC theory-of-the-cycle districts where Hillary beat Trump. Below you will see by what percentage Trump won the district.

• IA-03 (Austin Frerick)- 4 points
• KS-04 (James Thompson)- 27 points
• IL-13 (David Gill)- 6 points
• PA-16 (Jess King)- 7 points
• IN-09 (Dan Canon)- 27 points
• NC-05 (Jenny Marshall)- 18 points
• MI-06 (Paul Clements)- 8 points
• TX-21 (Derrick Crowe)- 10 points
• NY-02 (DuWayne Gregory)- 9 points
• ME-02 (Jared Golden)- 10 points
• OK-05 (Tom Guild)- 13 points
• WI-01 (Randy Bryce)- 10 points
• WA-05 (Lisa Brown)- 13 points
• NE-02 (Kara Eastman)- 2 points
• IA-04 (J.D. Scholten)- 23 points

As you can see, a 20 point nationwide swing would sweep away 12 of the 15 Republican incumbents in the Trump districts. That means the hardest work is needed in KS-04, IN-09 and IA-04. Be my guest, please.

National GOP leaders met at the Salamander Resort in Virginia over the weekend to discuss the 2018 campaign.

Sources familiar with the meeting say leaders left the resort acknowledging they would lose House seats in November.

Still, many were hopeful that economic growth and the tax cuts that haven’t yet made their way to voters’ paychecks will boost the party between now and Election Day.

House Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.), the fourth-ranking Republican in leadership, said the discussion at the retreat reinforced how important it will be for Republicans to “win hearts and minds on the tax package.”

“People in this country need to realize what is driving economic growth and job creation and opportunity,” she said.

Democrats need to flip 24 seats to gain control of the House.

McMorris Rodgers told The Hill she believes Republicans would maintain their majority in the House through 2018.

McMorris Rodgers is wrong-- and not just about the delusional assertion that the GOP is going to hold onto the majority in Congress. It's not likely she'll even be in Congress herself in 2019. As we saw on Tuesday, it's very likely that Eastern Washington voters are going to replace her with the state's former House Majority Leader, Lisa Brown. And Brown is doing all she can to reach out to those voters as directly as she can. Today she told us that "although Paul Ryan’s SuperPAC is opening a field office in Spokane, threatening to flood Eastern Washington with dark money, our supporters are countering it with thousands of contributions. $27 is still a popular amount, but they range on a daily basis from $5 to $500, because people understand how important it is to defeat entrenched leaders who have 'gone Beltway.' More significantly, we have over a thousand people attending training academies, clamoring to register voters and knock on doors from Chewelah to Walla Walla. This is how you take back your country."