What Happened In Washington State On Tuesday?

Well we still don't know all the details. Only around 70% of the votes were counted by Thursday morning in Washington's top-two jungle primaries. But in the statewide race-- Maria Cantwell's reelection-- about twice as many Democrats voted as Republicans. That filtered down to the three crucial congressional races as well. The big picture for the House is that there are 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans in the Washington House congressional delegation. None of the Democrat seats are in jeopardy. But 3 of the Republican seats are. There's a better than 50/50 chance that in January the Washington delegation will be 9 Democrats and one Republican (Dan Newhouse). These are the 4 Republican-held districts with their PVIs:

• WA-03 (Jaime Herrera Beutler): R+4
• WA-04 (Dan Newhouse): R+13
• WA-05 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers): R+8
• WA-08 (open- Dave Reichert): even

Trump won the third district with 49.9%, won the fourth district with 57.9%, won the 5th district with 52.2% and lost the 8th district 44.7%. Thursday morning, Dave Wasserman from the Cook Report tweeted that the 3 districts with big urban/rural divides as exactly where Republicans are apt to be in trouble in November and used as examples the seats occupied by Herrera Beutler (Portland suburbs), McMorris Rodgers (Spokane) and Reichert (Seattle suburbs). Wasserman and most others who follow House elections closely attribute that to "pathetic Republican turnout, which then allows anti-Trump energy in suburbs to put Democrats in contention." That was the real story in Washington on Tuesday.

In the 8th district, Republican voters coalesced around Dino Rossi and with 77.6% of the precincts counted, he was the top voter getter with 49,071. When you combine his vote with the 2 other GOP candidates, the Republican vote in the 8th district adds up to 53,,570. But when you add up all the Democratic votes you get 58,032, a big warning sign for Rossi as we head towards November. At this point, I'd bet on Kim Schrier being the next member of Congress, not Dino Rossi.

The big deal race where no one thought there would be a real battle is WA-05, the eastern third of the state. It's a huge district that includes Spokane and a lot of rural and small-town Washington and the seat is occupied by Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the highest ranking Republican in the House, a dull Trump rubber stamp. Her Trump affinity score is a stunning 97.8, one of the most disgraceful in Congress-- total Trump enabler.

Two-thirds of the WA-05 voters live in Spokane, which was represented by Lisa Brown while she was the Majority Leader of the Washington state House. When she retired from the legislature she was named chancellor of Washington State University (Spokane), where her most important achievement was building a medical school that trains doctor for rural medicine, a crucial development in the lives of the people outside Spokane. On Tuesday she stunned the district by coming within one point of McMorris Rodger-- and that was before the story of McMorris' crackpot fundraiser with Devin Nunes broke. With 78.6% of precincts counted last night (162 of 206), McMorris had 68,475 votes  (47.8%) to Brown's 67,040 (46.8%).

Back in April, the Spokesman-Review was already predicting a tight race, largely based on voters' mostly negative views of Trump.

The race between U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers and former WSU Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown is shaping up to be a bruising race, said H. Stuart Elway of Elway Research Inc.

In a recent survey of 403 registered voters in the district, incumbent McMorris Rodgers had a 6-percentage-point lead over Brown, with 44 percent saying they plan to vote for the Republican incumbent and 38 percent saying they plan to vote for the Democratic challenger. Another 3 percent said they plan to vote for someone else, and 16 percent are undecided.

The overall poll has a margin of error of 5 percentage points, so the race is within the margin and McMorris Rodgers’ lead is “not statistically significant,” Elway said. Being under 50 percent is a worry for any incumbent.

...One of the biggest indicators of how survey respondents say they are likely to vote was their view of the job President Trump is doing. Half of the people polled said they disapprove of the job Trump is doing, while 45 percent said they approve.

When asked whether they “strongly” or “somewhat” approve or disapprove of the job he’s doing, men were about equally divided, with 26 percent saying they strongly approve and 30 percent saying they strongly disapprove.

Yesterday WXLY reported that new numbers have been going better for Brown. "As of Wednesday evening, the Spokane County Elections Office announced that incumbent Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers, a Republican, had 44.25 percent of the vote while Lisa Brown, a Democrat had 50.93 percent of the vote... Typically, primary elections typically see 30 percent of voters cast their ballots at most, but yesterday some 45 percent decided to make their voices heard. “We've seen turnout just skyrocket,” shared Spokane County auditor Vicky Dalton. Please consider contributing to Brown's campaign by clicking on the 2018 Blue America congressional thermometer on the right.

Even before the new numbers had been released, the Spokesman-Review reported that Washington Republicans are in big trouble.

Up and down the long primary ballot, there were signs of unusual Democratic strength and few Republican bulwarks. They start, of course, with the 5th Congressional District, where Democratic challenger Lisa Brown is fewer than 600 votes behind incumbent Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers at the end of the first night’s count.

...In southwest Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler is at 41 percent, about 5,000 votes ahead of Democrat Carolyn Long. But like Brown, Long has a lead in Clark County, the home of Vancouver, and unlike Brown, she split the Democratic vote with three other candidates.

In the 8th Congressional District-- a suburban, exurban and rural Republican stronghold of King and Pierce counties that was made even stronger in the most recent redistricting by reaching across the Cascades to add Chelan, Douglas and Kittitas counties-- Republican Dino Rossi finished on top of a crowded race for an open seat. Democrat Kim Schrier, a physician, has a lead of less than 1,400 votes for the second spot. But Democrats Jason Rittereiser, a deputy prosecutor, and Shannon Hader, a public health official, finished third and fourth, and the combined total of those three is greater than Rossi’s total at this point.

If Rossi can’t capture the seat in November, it would be the first time it wasn’t in Republican hands since it was created after the 1980 census.

...In Spokane County, Democrats fared better than they have for years in some races, particularly in the 6th Legislative District. Jessa Lewis, a single mom and former national delegate for Bernie Sanders, is nearly 500 votes ahead of Jeff Holy, former law enforcement officer and a three-term House member trying to move up to the state Senate. Kay Murano, an executive director of the Low Income Housing Consortium, is leading incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Volz, the chief deputy county treasurer, by almost 1,500 votes.

Yesterday's Elections-- The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

There was no primary or special election in North Carolina yesterday and the Democratic candidate, Dan McCready, is a Blue Dog who will be voting frequently with the GOP when he gets into Congress-- Blue Dogs always do. But with the existential danger of Trump hanging over us, with have to hold our noses and hope congressional candidates like McCready win. And in this case, we probably don't have to hope too hard, because he's very likely to win. His opponent, far right crackpot Mark Harris (R) keeps saying women must submit to their husbands. I'm sure there are some people who will love that message. But not enough to win in a district that includes lots of well-off suburbs of both Charlotte and Fayetteville. He also keep denouncing homosexually as "evil." Harris is from another time and another North Carolina.

One more thing before I get to yesterday's results. 43% of Republicans-- not 43% of voters, just members of the Trump Party-- think Trump should be able top shut down media outlets he doesn't agree with. I guess, as a people, as a nation, we need to shut down the GOP.

First contest to be decided was the Ohio special election to replace Pat Tiberi in a very gerrymandered, very Republican district, OH-12 (PVI is R+7 and Trump beat Hillary there 53.2% to 41.9%). These were the early votes before any election day precincts came in. Encouraging, huh:

No one thought that was going to hold for long once yesterday's votes started coming in, especially votes from Licking, Muskingum, Morrow and Richland counties. Once over 70% of the votes were counted, it became a see-saw race depending whether red precincts or blue precincts were being counted. In the end, Balderson won with 101,574 votes (50.2%) to O'Connor's 99,820 (49.3%), so 1,754 votes separating them. It doesn't look to me that even if provisional votes go for the Democrats (in 10 days) it will be enough to turn the race around. Balderson and O'Connell will meet again in November where Balderson is unlikely to have $6 million in independent expenditures on his behalf.

Once votes started rolling in in KS-04, James Thompson started building a landslide victory over Laura Lombard. He's the Wichita progressive who ran an extraordinarily good campaign, highlighted by Bernie and Alexandria doing a massive get-out-the-vote rally with him in Wichita. He beat Laura Lombard 65.3% to 34.7%. And he'll need help to beat Trump enabler Ron Estes in November. You can help him here.

In the other important Kansas race (the 3rd district), the ultimate identity politics candidate, Sharice Davids, edged progressive Brent Welder in a 6-person race-- 22,891 (37.3%) to 20,803 (33.9%). She's likely to make a good member of Congress though. In the gubernatorial race, the Democrats got their strongest candidate, state Senator Laura Kelly with a landslide. On the Republican side, two far right Republicans faced off against each other, appointed incumbent Jeff Colyer and neo-fascist, Trump-endorsed Kris Kobach. This is probably headed for a recount. Kobach pulled ahead this morning by 0.1%-- 126,257 (40.6%) to 126,066 (40.5%). Now that's close!

In the Michigan gubernatorial contest, the Republicans picked the far right candidate, Bill Schuette and the Democrats went with the status quo candidate, Gretchen Whitmer over progressive champion Abdul El-Sayed. The fake Democrat Shri Thanedar, who seemed to be in the race solely to draw off votes from El-Sayed, played the role of spoiler.

The hot Democratic congressional races were in MI-06, MI-09, MI-11 and MI-13 (special and general). I was very nervous that in the 6th, the slimy Republican lobbyist masquerading as a Democrat (George Franklin) would slip in with the two progressives, Matt Longjohn and David Benac splitting the progressive vote. It didn't happen that way. Longjohn is a brilliant physician and in November he'll offer Fred Upton his strongest battle ever. He beat Franklin 22,077 (37.1%) to 17,222 (28.9%). In the 9th district, Andy Levin beat the more progressive Ellen Lipton 52.5% to 42.4%. Haley Stevens will be the candidate in MI-11 to face Republican Lena Epstein. There were 5 canddiates from each party and 88,715 Democrats voted, while 84,961 Republicans voted; good indicator for November. And in the Michigan district we were watching most closely, the open 13th, Rashida Tlaib won the 6-person contest for November, although appears to have lost the special election to Brenda Jones. Having Rashida in Congress starting in January will be a huge boon to the progressive movement.

Washington state has a jungle primary system, like California's, where all candidates run on the same ballot, regardless of party. The good news is that all the strongest Democratic candidates emerged in the 3 Republican-held vulnerable districts. In WA-03 Carolyn Long will be the candidate against Jaime Herrera Beutler. Just a few votes separate Lisa Brown (D) from GOP incumbent Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) and they will face off in November in a race that will be one of the biggest deals of the cycle. And in the wide open 8th district, where incumbent Dave Reichert is retiring, the two top candidates are wing nut Dino Rossi and Democrat Kim Schrier, although 32% of the precincts were yet to report this morning. It looks like there were far more votes for the 4 Democratic candidates than for the 3 Republican candidates, a good sign for November. It still isn't clear if New Dem Adam Smith will face Republican Doug Basler or progressive Democrat Sarah Smith in November.

Another Way For Progressive Democrats In Rural Districts To Look At The Gun Issue

At least a third of the residents of Washington's 3rd district-- which stretches from the Pacific Ocean to the Cascades and covers the southwest corner of the state-- live in Vancouver and the suburbs north of Portland, Oregon, just over the Columbia River. Although Obama won there in 2008, Romney did in 2012 and in 2016, Trump beat Hillary 49.9% to 42.5%. When conservative Democrat Brian Baird unexpectedly retired in 2010, the Democrats ran an unsavory self-funding conservative, Denny Heck, and he was beaten by Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler (53-47%). She's a custom-made GOP back bencher who basically does nothing at all. The PVI of the district is R+4 but the Democrats haven't put up a serious candidate against her since then. This year may be different.

There are 4 Democrats competing in the primary Dorothy Gasque, Martin Hash, Carolyn Long and David McDevitt. People hunt in this district and there's more than a little controversy over guns. Many people in the suburbs are mostly concerned about safety and many in small towns and rural areas are more concerned about not being told what to do. Right now Blue America is in the beginning stage of vetting Carolyn Long and we noticed her position on guns was different from what we usually hear from our candidates. But well thought out and interesting. I asked her to do a guest post for us.


An Innovative And Grounded Gun Policy That Will Save Lives
by Carolyn Long

Guns factor into so many deaths in America each year that you could be forgiven for mistaking our death statistics for those of a war-torn nation. It seems nearly every American is separated by an instance of gun violence, whether fatal or only terrifying, by a degree or two. The all too common scenario of a school shooting, a nightclub massacre, or workplace violence, grip the Nation’s attention and invoke terror.

I am a professor in Southwest Washington and the proud mother of a 13 year old girl. After I drop her off at school and head to the university for work, the intrusive thought occasionally hits me that it may be the last time we will ever see each other again. I cannot watch the shaky video from within Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School without thinking of my own daughter’s shaking hands. This is not something that anyone living in a modern and developed nation like ours should ever have to think about. It is a national tragedy, and the inability of our federal representatives to deal with it appropriately is a disgrace we cannot justly hand down to our children.

The crucial discourse about gun violence has descended into talking points, buzz words, and idealistic proposals. Our discourse is polarized between Americans who feel a passionate connection to their Second Amendment rights and those who fear sending their children to school and will do anything to assuage that fear.

As for elected officials, many are led to their positions on guns by special interest groups. This is the case for Jaime Herrera Beutler, the current Congresswoman in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District where I’m running to take her seat and bring leadership to the District.

The first, and most obvious step, in addressing this challenge is to deal with the complete lack of funding for the Centers for Disease Control to study gun violence. It was only a few months ago that the Dickey Amendment was repealed, allowing the CDC to study this public health crisis. Funding is a crucial first step in formulating gun safety policy based on hard data and science. Basing our decisions on science allows us to debunk bogus claims made by the NRA and will put pressure on legislators to pass effective, lasting legislation. In the interim, we should focus on enforcing-- and funding the enforcement of-- laws that are already in place.

 We can do more to address gun violence. We can enact bipartisan, common sense gun safety measures. Measures that already enjoy the support of the overwhelming majority of the Americans. These include:

• Improve, Expand, and Fund Universal Background Checks
• Close the Gun Show, Charleston, and Stalker Loopholes
• Increase the punishment for anyone who sells a weapon to, or purchases a weapon for, any person that is not legally allowed to own one
• Ban bump stocks and any other conversion devices that increase a weapon’s rate of fire beyond manufacturer’s specifications
• Increase the age to purchase assault weapons to 21

• Provide funding for states and municipalities to establish buy-back programs

The Republican Party often frames gun violence as a mental health issue. Meanwhile, they consistently vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act while failing to present any serious alternatives. If they invoke mental health crises as a reason for gun violence, then it is imperative that they establish parity for mental health treatment and coverage while protecting it as a pre-existing condition. Yet they refuse to do so.

When it comes to the treatment of assault-style weapons, we must avoid the mistake of failing to properly define “assault weapons,” resulting in the exclusion of certain types of weapons and the inadvertent inclusion of certain hunting and sporting weapons. We also have to avoid the desire to pass ineffective legislation that is easily circumvented and ignores the fact that there are an estimated 8 to 15 million assault weapons already owned in the United States today.

That said, assault weapons are weapons of war and should be treated as such. We should think of them as we think of machine guns, rocket launchers and artillery. This is why I support the expansion of the National Firearms Act to include them. We require people to earn a license to drive a car, certainly we can require a similar level of training and background check to operate another deadly machine. Doing so, while providing a window of opportunity for current assault weapons owners to get a NFA permit, provides a legal path to ownership for law-- abiding gun owners, limits new and “person-to-person” sales to people who have been properly vetted by the ATF, and will leverage a process that is already in place and is effective at accounting for, and regulating weapons of war.

A heavy focus of the conversation on assault weapons through the lens of the horrific and tragic school shootings that are currently plaguing our country is warranted. It is important that we also recognize the largely unspoken fact that the majority of gun deaths in this country are caused by handguns and that they too must factor into any comprehensive discussion on gun violence. The fact that the victims are disproportionately people of color and the victims of domestic violence cannot be overstated and speaks to a wider cultural divide in our country. Nor can we hide from the fact that the majority of gun deaths are due to suicide.

We need to work together to find realistic solutions for this national epidemic and my opponent has demonstrated, both throughout her 4 terms in office and her accompanying NRA “A” Rating, that she has no desire to do so. We have an opportunity in November-- as we do every two years-- to remake the House of Representatives. We can do this while respecting and protecting the rights of millions of responsible gun owners and making everybody safer.

Please join me in my effort to Put People Over Politics.