The National Horserace Today-- Still A Brutal Referendum On Trump

This week David Feldman and I invited progressive super-activist and author Norman Solomon to be out guest on David's radio show. Norman explained how important it is to concentrate on the swing states and how any progressives thinking of not voting for the conservative and unsavory Biden should just focus on the existential danger of another Trump term and do the right thing for the country. We wound up in a discussion of which states are and which states aren't swing states. First of all, try to remember that voters are in flux and yesterday's solid red state-- say Arizona, Georgia or Texas-- might be among today's swing states. Also, even the most solid blue or red states-- say California (blue) or Nebraska (red)-- have swing congressional and state legislative districts that can flip if turnout is big enough. In California, there are Republican areas, generally inland areas, that are on the verge of flipping and could see Audrey Denney and Liam O'Mara replacing congressional Trumpists Doug LaMalfa and "Crooked" Ken Calvert, while state legislative candidate Drew Phelps is on the edge of flipping an Assembly seat in Devin Nunes' congressional district. And, sure, Trump is going to win the state of Nebraska but the state assigns electoral votes by congressional district and NE-02 is likely to vote for Biden and to replace Trump enabler Donald J. Bacon with progressive champion Kara Eastman.

OK, that said there is a general consensus that Trump is the solid favorite in 20 states (125 electoral votes) and a solid loser in 30 states (320 electoral votes), with just 5 states-- Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina up for grabs (93 electoral votes). That means even if Trump won all 5 states up for grabs, he would still lose the election.




A warning: media is panicking that a Biden victory is so assured that millions of people are turning off to "the news." That, at least in part, explains why convention viewership-- for both parties-- was down a stunning 28%. So, now the media is twisting the facts to make it look like more of a tight horse-race. Both parties are encouraging that as well. But as long as the election is a referendum on Trump-- and Trump will never allow it to be anything else-- he loses.

Let's take Alaska. Every single Beltway prognosticator rates the state "solid Republican." And yet more voters in Alaska self-identify as independents than as either Republicans or Democrats. A new poll from Civiqs this week-- with a humongous sampling of Alaska voters-- shows Trump's approval rating at a pathetic 44% (with 53% disapproving). So how is that a lock. I'm not saying Trump is going to lose Alaska, just that it isn't as solid as the foolish know-it-alls say it is. Only 51.28% of Alaskans voted for Trump is 2016. A poll I saw this week shows Trump and Biden virtually tied (within the margin of error and shows Al Gross pulling ahead of very unpopular GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan. My point? Don't be so sure what the swing states are and what they're not.

According to the CIVIQ surveys, there are only 18 states where Trump's approval is higher than his disapproval. And "solid" GOP states where that is not the case include Alaska. where Trump is 9 points the hole; Ohio, where Trump is 4 points in the hole; Texas, where approval/disapproval inexactly even; and Iowa, where Trump is 3 points in the hole.

I think we can all agree that Trump is going to win Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska (minus NE-02), South Carolina, both Dalotas, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming, but the rest of the country is leaning anti-Trump or is too close to call. This year's swing states are not Virginia (17 points down), Wisconsin (8 points down), New Hampshire (24 points down), Pennsylvania (10 points down), Minnesota (17 points down) Nevada (22 points down), New Mexico (9 points down), Colorado (21 points down), and Michigan (13 points down). Instead let's watch Arizona (6 points down), Florida (5 points down), Georgia (7 points down), Montana (1 point down), Iowa (3 points down)... and even Kansas, Utah and Indiana would be possible-- remotely possible-- if Biden decided to campaign in those states (he won't). You can be sure in politics that if you don't play; you don't win.

A strong fighting Democratic ticket issuing to mean congressional seats, statewide offices, legislative seats. local races... as well as the presidential race and a revived party. The people running Biden's show should realize that. He was smart to endorsed Syracuse progressive Dana Balter yesterday. He should be rolling out endorsements for candidates-- like her-- who can turn out voters. Endorsing Democrats in swing states could help him and it costs nothing. He should make a team out of down-ballot candidates, the way Adam Christensen did in Florida. He helped state legislative candidates and they helped him. "We’ve done something that almost no other congressional district has done in the state of Florida," Adam told us this morning. "We have built a coalition of all of the house district candidates in our congressional district. With the understanding that the better that they do, the better we will do, and the better that we do the better that the presidential goes in Florida. Elections are a science. Can you turn out more people who will vote for you than the other team. To do that here, with little money, means that you have to build the largest team. House district candidates especially in places that are impossible to win are vitally important to cutting margins. More Democrats vote, when more Democrats run. The same goes with Republicans. The Democratic Party needs to start understanding this. We need a Democrat on every single ballot, in every single race, from presidential all the way down to property appraiser in every single state. Because it will drain resources, time, and effort from the other side. Politics is a war of attrition and unless you start fighting it that way, over every single acre of land, you’ll always be playing defense."