Is The Anti-Trump/Anti-Red Wave Going To Help Democrats At The State Legislative Level?

My guess is yes-- this November we're going to see a lot of the seats that were lost while Debbie Wasserman Schultz incompetently ran the DNC picked back up by Democrats again. And, as Joan Walsh explained this week for The Nation that process is already underway. During the Wasserman Schultz years Democrats lost 942 legislative seats. "In 2009," wrote Walsh, "Democrats controlled 27 state legislative assemblies and Republicans 14, with eight divided. (Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is nonpartisan.) By 2017, Republicans controlled 32 and Democrats 14, with three divided. In 2010 Republicans were able to use this dominance to gerrymander electoral maps across the country, locking themselves into power in state after state, including in an inordinate number of congressional districts in states like Michigan, Ohio, Louisiana, North Carolina, Texas, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Walsh explained that by 2017 Trump's toxicity started impacting election results "as Democrats won back 14 state seats in special elections, plus an astonishing 15 in Virginia that November." And in 2018 Democrats "turned 380 seats from red to blue... flipping chambers in six states. In Colorado, New York, and Maine, Democrats took over Senate chambers. In Minnesota they grabbed the House, and in New Hampshire they turned both. They made huge strides elsewhere in eroding GOP power, switching 16 seats in North Carolina’s House and Senate, ending GOP supermajorities (which gave the legislature power to override the Democratic governor’s vetoes); 14 in Texas; and 19 in Pennsylvania. In 2019, Virginia Democrats finished their job, taking the House and the Senate. With a Democratic governor, the state returned to full Democratic control for the first time in over two decades. Counting those Virginia victories, Democrats have won back over 450 seats and 10 state chambers in the Trump era."

Anselm Weber, a progressive state House candidate for an open seat in southwest Florida told us that his race is important for a multitude of reasons. "In terms of my District," he said, "we have intense clean water issues as we are at the frontline of massive blue algae blooms caused by nitrogen and phosphorus runoff from commercial farms. My opponent Adam Botana is heavily funded by big Agricultural companies that directly contribute to our blue algae blooms. Moreover for the state of Florida we have massive poverty and healthcare uninsured rates along with immense housing insecurities. These issues have only gotten worse with COVID as thousands of Floridians have lost their job based health insurance and a whopping 51% of Florida renters are at risk for eviction. This means we need state legislators who will fight tooth and nail for a Green Jobs Program to combat climate change while providing well paying jobs across the state. along with fighting for living wages for all, universal healthcare, and an expansion of affordable and public housing."

Heidi Campbell, one of the Nashville area mayors, is running for the last state legislative seat in greater Nashville still held by a Republican. And she's going to win it. "Every now and then," she told me this morning, "I'll talk to a Democratic voter who asks me why I'm bothering to run for state Senate. Progressives have mostly given up on Republican super-majority states like Tennessee because flipping seats is a daunting prospect. There's also a tendency to focus on the shiny televised, twitter-fied federal races, and of course we've had four solid years of a President who takes up all the oxygen in the room. As a Mayor of a small city though, I can tell you that all politics really and truly IS local. Republicans are counting on states like Tennessee to seed battles to overturn Roe v. Wade and roll back environmental regulations. We need progressive candidates in these states who can win seats and fight to flip other seats. And we also need to elect people like me to run interference on the antediluvian legislation that the conservatives write, like bills to jail librarians, honor Rush Limbaugh, and the dangerous push for permitless carry. Geographically and legislatively our states ARE united, and we have to pay attention to state races before it's too late."

Drew Phelps is the progressive Democrat working towards replacing right-wing extremist Devon Mathis in a Central Valley Assembly seat. Today he told me that "The race in AD 26 is vital because the people in this district have been ignored by Sacramento for too long. One more Democrat in the California Assembly may not seem like a big deal, but for the approximately 465,000 people in AD 26 so much more is possible with a Democratic member who represents their interests. This election is a choice between a public servant who would put the needs of the district above partisan politics and special interests on one side, and someone like Devon Mathis who accomplishes nothing, harasses his own staff, and continually puts the interests of his large donors above the average working person in the district. Assembly District 26 has been ignored and left behind for too long and Sacramento needs to prioritize the needs of the people in the district so that they no longer lag behind the rest of California. Electing Drew Phelps would give the people of the district a champion who would put their needs above all else and allow them to finally get their fair share from Sacramento."

Joshua Hicks is running for a state House seat that takes in all of Nassau County and part of Duval County. "Here in Northeast Florida," he told us this morning, "we are running a campaign in District 11 to place the people back in charge in Tallahassee. This race is vitally important because it allows us the real opportunity to hold my Republican opponent accountable for his dismal failures, while also preventing him from spending his resources on his friends both locally and across the state. It's important because as Democrats, we need to ensure we have a candidate in every race because we can't win if we don't run. It's also important because we can move real numbers in my district and in districts across the country, that will help Democrats win up and down the ballot and ride the anti-Trump wave to victory. Here in District 11, we haven't had a Democratic state House campaign like mine in the past 10 years. We are putting in the resources to turn this district blue, and we are reaching out to NPAs and Republicans to convince them to reject the hate coming from Donald Trump and embrace focusing on the kitchen table issues impacting all our families. Issues like higher wages, better healthcare, acting on climate and a renewed focus on lifting up our local economy. These are the issues that matter and we are seeing real movement away from the politics of hate in Northeast Florida."

Please consider contributing to the progressive legislative candidates endorsed by Blue America-- in Florida, Tennessee, California and across the country-- by clicking on the ActBlue thermometer above.

Now those groups and some new ones are trying to change more chambers to blue, especially in states where the legislature controls redistricting. But they need to learn the lessons of why state Democrats slumped after 2008, failing to rise to the GOP challenge, and surged after 2016.

Chief among them: You can’t win if you don’t play.

Democrats in many states had long failed even to field challengers to many Republican incumbents. That’s changed hugely since 2016. In this cycle, the DLCC has spent $6.2 million to recruit candidates. Democrats also need a diverse slate of challengers, especially to turn out the people least likely to vote but most likely to be Democrats: so-called low-propensity voters, mainly people of color and younger people (who obviously overlap). Then Democrats need to target those voters, as well as run on issues and urgency that match the moment.

...[T]he four states that are seeing the most investment are North Carolina, where there’s a chance to shift the House and Senate; Arizona, where both chambers are likewise in play; and Texas and Michigan, whose Houses may be up for grabs. Fights are also underway to turn the Minnesota Senate, the Iowa and Ohio Houses, and both Pennsylvania chambers. Wisconsin and Georgia are getting attention, too.

And with a late, unexpected surge of first-time candidates, Florida has emerged as a fascinating laboratory for building Democratic infrastructure on the ground. Republicans hold a trifecta in state power-- hapless Governor Ron DeSantis as well as both legislative houses-- and they have botched the pandemic response beyond belief. Groups like Sister District, Forward Majority, and the DLCC are starting to spend money there to at least build a working Democratic Party in red areas, if not flip a chamber. “Running up the margins” in blue districts and preventing Republicans from doing so in red districts “can help Joe Biden win the state,” says Fergie Reid Jr. of 90 for 90, a group formed to honor his father, Fergie Reid Sr., who was elected in 1967 as Virginia’s first Black state legislator since Reconstruction, on his 90th birthday. (He’s now 95 and going strong.) It is one of the groups behind Virginia’s turnaround, by registering voters and recruiting Democratic challengers. Now it has helped inspire the late surge of Florida Democratic candidates.

...[I]n Texas, where Governor Greg Abbott is increasingly reviled for his pandemic management-- which is partly why Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances to win the nine seats they need to turn the state House. There are nine House districts held by Republicans that were won in 2018 by Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke, whose run is widely credited with reviving the state’s withered Democratic infrastructure. He lost to Senator Ted Cruz narrowly, but Democrats picked up an astonishing 12 seats in the House that year.

Run by a bumbling GOP trifecta in the age of coronavirus, ruby-red Texas is unpredictable this year. Biden even leads Trump in a few polls there. “Governor Abbott has taken all the ownership of Covid and has refused to believe science,” says second-time Texas House candidate Joanna Cattanach. “We have refrigerator trucks outside hospitals in Dallas County now.”

The net approval rating for Abbott’s response to Covid has slipped 21 points since June, when 56 percent of Texans approved and only 36 percent disapproved; he is now underwater, with 47 percent approval, 48 percent disapproval. “He’s really made himself the face of the pandemic,” Cattanach says, sounding bewildered. Not only did Abbott open businesses too soon, the 
public health data shows, but he also discouraged face masks and social distancing and even blocked localities from imposing stricter requirements.

...This year, some hope that a presidential election, which always gets more voters to the polls, could help boost Texas turnout-- but maybe not at the state legislative level. “We have to avoid down-ballot drop-off,” Cattanach says. That’s always a challenge in state legislative races, even in the hyperenergized Trump era. ”In 2018 our candidates underperformed Democrats in the same congressional district by about 4 points,” Forward Majority cofounder Vicky Hausman warns. “It’s a real problem.”

...Kathy Lewis, who’s running a second time for Florida’s Senate District 20, encompassing the Tampa–St. Petersburg area anchored by Hillsborough County, didn’t hear she was too liberal for the district in 2018. Mostly she didn’t hear anything, especially from Democratic Party leaders.

...“Everyone,” including many state Democratic leaders, “said we were crazy,” she recalls. “No one would vote for us. But the party had somehow miscalculated how much this district was changing.” She garnered an unexpected 46.5 percent of the vote, winning 52 percent in populous Hillsborough County. In 2020, Lee resigned, and suddenly the party had an open seat to contest. According to several reports, Democratic leaders approached at least two others to run, even though Lewis filed almost immediately after Lee’s announcement. “They said later they didn’t know I was on the ballot,” she says, sounding unconvinced.

If Democrats recruited two alternative potential candidates for Lee’s seat, they neglected a whole lot of other districts. That’s where 90 for 90 came in. After the group’s Virginia successes, it moved on to other states, helping recruit candidates where party leaders seemed unable or uninterested. In Florida the Reids reached out to Janelle Christensen, the energetic head of the state Democrats’ environmental caucus. “They explained the advantages of running in every district, and I said, ‘Hey, I’m convinced,’” she says. “It’s not necessarily that they’re going to win, although they could, but they can cut the margins in red districts for Biden and educate people on our issues.” She says she could fill maybe 10 challengers’ seats with folks close to her caucus. “But when I got started talking to them, they talked to their friends, and we recruited 36.” 90 for 90 also worked to help with the unlikely candidates’ state election filing fees, which are $1,800 each.

Other national groups, including the DLCC, have since jumped into Florida. “The conventional wisdom is there’s no path to winning the Florida House. We have a contrarian view,” says Hausman. As in Texas, there are districts that appear flippable, especially the 13 GOP-held seats that were won by either Clinton in 2016 or by gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum in 2018.

Still, many people feel the state party is undersupportive of its new insurgents. Inexplicably, challengers have had trouble getting access to VAN, a privately owned list of local voters, with names, addresses, and phone numbers, who have voted or might vote Democratic. “It felt like the party was constantly trying to reinterpret the rules for who qualifies [to get VAN],” Christensen says. “But even once you get it, most of the numbers are bad. Nobody’s even been trying in these districts, in some cases for decades. They’re useless for anyone coming in trying to organize. If all we did in these races is build a list of interested Democrats in VAN, that’s something.”

Sister District cofounder Gaby Goldstein, whose group is also working in Florida, says that’s a common problem in red states, many of which it has targeted since its founding in 2016. “In some places, we have to lay the basic groundwork because VAN is garbage. Many Democratic voter lists are garbage,” she says. I have heard this a lot in red states and districts over the last four years. There have always been stalwart Democratic activists in the reddest places, but a lot of state parties have let the infrastructure “wither away,” Goldstein says.

Lewis eventually got access to VAN. There are gaps in its data, but this time around, she’s more confident anyway. “You know what? With the coronavirus, we have local people who don’t have health care. They can’t access unemployment insurance. They know Florida is a mess,” she says. She adds that after hearing her story in 2018 about fighting with the state to get services for her daughter and hearing it again in 2020, people tell her, “Kathy, I didn’t understand last time, but now I see exactly what you were saying.”

Unfortunately, local party leaders still don’t seem to understand. Lewis benefited from a widely seen Zoom call in July led by Hillsborough County Democratic leader Ione Townsend with local Black leaders. When one asked about the party’s lack of support for Lewis her second time around, Townsend replied, “It’s not high on our list because of where the polling was. What we do is, we prioritize based on our overall goals. White, Black, brown-- it doesn’t matter who that candidate is, it’s where they fall on our election priority list.”

Angela Birdsong, a Hillsborough Democratic activist who ran for county commissioner in 2018, responded, “I just think any Black woman in the race right now stands a chance and should be given a little more money than you might think they need. I just feel that you should give them more money!”

Lewis, like other women of color running for office this year, believes the widespread American revulsion over George Floyd’s murder and the movement to end police violence buoy her campaign. For one thing, it has gotten people focused on the role of state and local leaders in reforming police departments. Here’s where electing Democrats can matter-- if not always enough. Colorado, which elected a Democratic trifecta over the past few cycles, did away with qualified immunity for police officers in June; New York, which completed a trifecta in 2018, enacted other criminal justice reforms. “We now have a Black Senate leader, Andrea Stewart-Cousins, and a Black Assembly speaker, Carl Heastie,” the DLCC’s Post says of New York. “That’s truly made a difference.”

...Even in Virginia in 2019, Bachman observes, “Democrats keep underperforming,” at least partly because outreach to voters scored as less likely to vote was sometimes undervalued when it came to door knocking, media buys, and direct mail. Virginia Democrats took control of both chambers but won only two state Senate seats, fewer than expected. “Given the nature of the 2016 election, the voters who stayed home skewed to Democrats,” she adds. “It couldn’t be more clear that the path to winning more seats is getting lower-propensity voters, particularly lower-propensity voters of color, engaged with our message and turning them out.”

That’s especially true, Abrams says, since 2020 is another census year, with participation threatened by the pandemic and Trump administration malfeasance. “If we do not have adequate participation by voters of color in November,” she warns, “gerrymandering will be worse than we’ve ever seen.”

Jacob Malinowski, a candidate for the Wisconsin Assembly for the red-leaning southwest corner of Milwaukee County told me today that "In Wisconsin, there are a lot of obstacles for Democratic State Assembly candidates: the map is the worst gerrymander in the country, and many national resources are focused on a select few races. Furthermore, if Republicans make just a few gains, they'll have a veto-proof supermajority with no check on their power. But in the southwest suburbs of Milwaukee, I'm running to win. My district is a 50-50 flip that nobody is paying attention to, and we're using this to our advantage to flip the seat right under the noses of the GOP. With hard work and real conversations, I'm running a new, post-partisan campaign to build lasting progressive power in my home state. If we can win here, then the path to a people-first Wisconsin is clear: run hard-working candidates everywhere who offer real ideas and speak to the lived experience in their districts, not just the same talking points."

Christine Pellegrino is running for the New York state Senate (SD-4) in Suffolk County (Babylon and Islip), a swing district currently represented by Trumpist Phil Boyle. "For candidates like me," Pellegrino told us, "2020 will allow suburban progressives to win seats at the table of power. For too long, State House Democratic majorities have used the objections of their moderate suburban colleagues as the reason to hold up the progressive legislation we need. If more suburban progressives get elected, these excuses will no longer hold water, which means that the path to enacting progressive legislation runs through the suburbs. And I've won this kind of race before, by a landslide. I was the 2nd national red to blue flip in my 2017 special election for New York State Assembly, a harbinger for the 2018 Blue Wave midterms. And once I'm in the New York State Senate, we will be able to help reverse the damage of 2010 by fully funding our schools and libraries, improving our infrastructure, and fighting for the healthcare we all deserve. Suburban down-ballot progressives are the crucible-- the testing ground-- for enacting an agenda that helps poor and working people and families first. If Albany can pass progressive legislation, other states and the federal government will be able to accrue the support to pass similar reforms. Down ballot races like mine are the cornerstone of lasting political revolution."

Missouri state Rep Deb Lavender first ran for the legislature in 2008 and told us that she "was finally successful in 2014 running four cycles in a row. I watched firsthand in 2010 how the Tea Party swept across Missouri, and the nation, and watched as good Democrats lost their seats. Republicans picked up seats in Missouri for the next two elections. Until 2014 Missouri lost so many state legislative seats we dipped into a super minority in both chambers. In 2016 we elected a Republican Governor and since then have lost all legislative issues that are important to Democrats. In 2018, I watched my own state Senator, Andrew Koenig, file and pass one of the nation's most restrictive pieces of abortion legislation, leaving no exceptions for rape or incest.  Democratic senators negotiated as best as possible and yet in the end, we still passed one of the most egregious bills in the nation, because senators are also in the super-minority in Missouri. Being an elected official is about more than having power, it's about having a seat at the table to effect positive change and pass laws that improve peoples' lives. Unfortunately today in Missouri, Democrats are not welcome at the table, not in the House or in the Senate."

Deb won her race for state Representative in 2014, flipping a long held Republican seat. Over the last 6 years Democrats have picked up 4 additional seats in the state House and one in the state Senate, a good start, though not near what they need win to get out of the super-minority.

She told me that "a year ago I decided to run for this Senate seat knowing we had a chance to flip the Senate seat as I had my House seat. I have worked hard for the people in my district and have used my platform on the Budget Committee, where even a Democrat can make some change. I had the opportunity to meet Jessica Post in 2015 (she started her career here in Missouri), and she looks forward to the day when Missouri is ready to flip a chamber to Democrat again. Until then, I am proud of the results she has made across the nation in picking up so many seats these last years. A significant turning point for Missouri was when we finally became the 38th state to pass Medicaid Expansion in August of this year. My experience in budget will allow me the opportunity in the Senate, to implement Medicaid expansion. The stars are aligning and there are good signs that I will win this seat. Every week, the five women running for the State House in my senate district and I get together to discuss strategy and learn from each other what we are doing to win our races. I look forward to us all flipping Republican-held seats for Democrats this year."