THE 10 Counties To Watch In 2020? Not Necessarily

Yesterday Reid Wilson published an early morning post at The Hill delineating "the 10 counties that will decide the 2020 election." I suspect the editor of click-getting came up with the foolish and misleading title. Although Wilson wrote that "Interviews with two dozen strategists, political scientists and observers show the 10 counties across the country that will determine the outcome of the 2020 presidential election," what his piece actually is about is "counties to watch that are indicative of trends in each state. That's a very different thing.

Surprisingly though, Reid emphasized how each county voted in 2016, but not in 2018, after two years of Trump. Let's start where he did, with Erie County, Pennsylvania. This one really is a pivotal county, but voters there turned on Trump after two years. Reid wrote that "In 2008 and 2012, Obama won Erie County by double-digit margins" but in 2016 Trump beat Hillary there by 1.6 percentage points. In 2018, Erie County went blue again. In the Senate race, Bob Casey (D) beat Lou Barletta (R) 58.4% to 40.0% and in the gubernatorial race, Tom Wolf (D) creamed Scott Wagner (R) 59.9% to 38.7%. And in the congressional race, Erie County is the biggest county-- by far-- in the 16th congressional district. The incumbent, Mike Kelly, was reelected 51.6% to 47.3% over a weak Blue Dog candidate, Ron DiNicola. But that was the district-wide number. Erie County voted blue in a big way-- D+20! DiNicola lost Butler, Mercer, Lawrence and Crawford counties.

The Wisconsin county he picked to watch was Sauk County which "has predicted the winner of Wisconsin’s electoral votes in nine of the past 10 presidential elections. Trump was the first Republican to carry the county in 28 years, when he won it by just 109 votes out of about 30,000 cast." As far as I can tell, he has his numbers wrong. Hillary beat Trump in Sauk County 16,050 (47.4) to 15,871 (46.9%)-- 179 votes. That's way too close in a county where Obama kicked both McCain's and Romney's asses. And, in fact, the primary tells us more about where Sauk County voters were:

• Bernie: 1,093 (56.9%)
• Hillary: 817 (42.5%

And last year, Sauk County was safely blue. In the Senate race, Tammy Baldwin (D) beat Leah Vukmir (R) 58.8% to 41.2%-- considerably better than Baldwin's 55.4 to 44.6% statewide win. And Sauk helped Tony Evers (D) oust Gov. Scott Walker in a much closer gubernatorial contest-- though not close in Sauk. Evers beat Walker 54.0% to 43.6%. There's no congressional race to look at because Sauk is entirely within the second district and the GOP didn't bother putting up a candidate against Mark Pocan.

In Michigan, Reid picked Muskegon County as "indicative of the statewide vote in the next election." It was very close in 2016. Again, a district where Obama did well both times, Hillary won it by the skin of her teeth-- 47.5% to 46.6%. Had Bernie run, he would have trounced Trump in 2016. How do I know? Look at the primary results there:

• Bernie- 10,062
• Hillary- 8,220
• Ted Cruz- 6,478
• Trumpanzee- 5,757

If Muskegon is going to be indicative of Michigan in 2020, let's look at 2018. Debbie Stabenow (D) beat John James (R) in the Senate race statewide 52.3% to 45.8%. Muskegon County was slightly worse for James. Stabenow beat him 52.3% to 44.8%. In the gubernatorial race, Gretchen Whitmer (D) beat Bill Schuette by 10 points-- (R) 50.3% to 40.3%. Bill Huizenga (R) was reelected to Congress but he lost Muskegon county, which performed at a nice strong D+8 level. This cycle, the Democrats have a stronger candidate, progressive pastor Bryan Berghoef, who will do even better in Muskegon (and win in Kent County as well).

Wilson's last midwest county is Washington in Minnesota. "Washington County voted twice for George W. Bush, then twice for Obama," he wrote. "Clinton carried Washington County by just 1.8 percentage points, almost exactly the margin by which she carried Minnesota as a whole." In 2016 Hillary beat Trump in Washington Co. 67,086 (47.0%) to 64,429 (45.1%). Not bad-- but Bernie would have done better. The county is split between the 2nd and 4th congressional districts. Bernie beat Hillary in both districts-- and also outpolled Trump in both.

MN-02

• Bernie- 11,433
• Hillary- 8,221
• Rubio- 6,071
• Cruz- 4,836
• Trumpanzee- 3,333

MN-04

• Bernie- 17,164
• Hillary- 12,346
• Rubio- 5,493
• Cruz- 2,992
• Trumpanzee- 2,114

Something tells me if Washington County is going to make or break the 2020 Trump campaign, he might as well saves money and put it into Florida. In 2018, Democrats won Washington County comfortably in the 2 Senate races and the gubernatorial. Amy Klobuchar routed Jim Newberger 60.3% to 36.7% and in the other Senate race the less well-known Tina Smith beat Karin Housley 50.8% to 45.0%. In the open gubernatorial race Tim Walz (D) beat Jeff Johnson (R) 52.2% to 44.4%. As for the two congressional seats, in the 2nd district, Washington County helped Angie Craig (D) oust Jason Lewis by giving her a solid D+8 performance. And in the 4th district, the county came through for incumbent Betty McCollum with an even stronger D+13 performance.

Last week we took a look at Maricopa County, Arizona ourselves and predicted it would be one of the hot focal points for 2020. Wilson notes that "Arizona is the most urbanized state in the Republican column, and its most urban county, Maricopa, shows signs of inching left." Trump won the county 49.1% to 45.7% in 2016 but last year Democrats won the Senate race there (51.0% to 46.8%) while losing the gubernatorial race (55.9% to 42.1%). With Trump and Joe Arpaio on the ticket next year, voters from both parties will be super-motivated.

Tarrant County (Forth Worth) used to be very blue but turned very red and is now demographically inching back towards the Democrats. Trump beat Hillary 345,683 (52.2%) to288,001 (43.5%) but last year Beto narrowly won the county, beating Ted Cruz 313,497 (49.9%) to 309,189 (49.2%). On the same day Greg Abbott was reelected governor there (against Lupe Valdez) 340,404 (54.4%) to 273,814 (43.7%). Tarrant County was very gerrymandered up by the Republicans in the state legislature, but demographics have been catching up to them there too. It's the biggest county in TX-06, which was won by Ron Wright (R), but Tarrant went for Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez with a nice D+5 performance. It's also the biggest part of TX-12, which reelected Kay Granger (R) who trounced a Democratic sacrificial lamb, Vanessa Adia, the Tarrant part of the district giving Granger an R+19 win. TX-24 has a big slice of Tarrant and it was the only part of the district that went for Kenny Marchant last cycle. The Dallas and Denton counties part of the district both went blue and Marchant read the writing on the wall and announced his retirement. TX-25 has a tony slice of Tarrant but not enough to save Roger Williams from a blue tsunami expected in Travis County this year. Williams is hanging on but if he wins in 2020, it could be his last win. Michael Burgess' TX-26 has a somewhat bigger and redder piece of Tarrant but Tarrant is much more important in TX-33, where it gave Democrat Marc Veasey his biggest margin (D+59).

North Carolina is shaping up to be a major swing state for 2020 and Wilson picked New Hanover County where Wilmington is turning the county blue. Trump beat Hilary there-- by the skin of his teeth. In 2016 it was virtually a 3-way primary win:

• Trump- 12,631
• Bernie- 12,276
• Hillary- 12,240

In November Trump beat Hillary 54,665 (50.3%) to 50,219 (46.2%). But two years in, voters expressed buyers' remorse. Although David Rouzer held onto his House seat, he lost the New Hanover part of the district to Kyle Horton (D) 46,155 (51.91%) to 41,286 (46.44%)-- a D+5 performance.

Georgia is also shaping to be less of a sure thing for Republicans and Wilson picked Peach County, whose "residents are about half white and 45 percent African American. About half live in its cities, and half live in rural areas." It's a pivot county that "voted for Obama twice and Trump in 2016. In 2016, Trump won the county with 5,405 votes (50.5%) to 5,083 (47.5%). Secretary of State (now Governor) Brian Kemp monkeyed with the voting machines so heavily last year that the election results for 2018 are nearly worthless, in the gubernatorial race. The county falls within GA-02, Sanford Bishop's district, which he won 60-40, taking Peach County, but very narrowly, basically a dead heat.

Wilson selected 2 New England counties to watch as well, one in New Hampshire and one in Maine. Hillsborough County is the largest in New Hampshire and Hillary performed relatively poorly there. In 2016 the primary belonged to Bernie:

• Bernie- 38,648
• Trump- 28,981
• Hillary- 28,099
• Kasich- 12,504

In November, Hillary underperformed. Trump took the county with 100,013 votes (47.4%) to her 99,589 (47.2%). Last year: more buyers remorse. Wilson noted that "The 2018 midterm elections wiped out many Hillsborough members of the state legislature; today, Democrats hold two-thirds of the state House districts in the county." But Chris Sununu (R) beat Molly Kelly (D) in the gubernatorial race in Hillsborough County, 54.1% to 44.4%.The county is split between the two congressional districts. In NH-01 the open seat went to Democrat Chris Pappas with a strong D+13 performance in Hillsborough and in NH-02 the county also performed well for Democratic incumbent Ann Kuster (D+8). In fact the fact that almost every county went to the Democrats-- exceptions being Belknap County (split between the 2 districts) and the part of Rockingham in NH-02-- shows huge voter dissatisfaction with Trump. Anyone who thinks he has a shot in New Hampshire next year, needs to take punditry 101 over again.

Lincoln County is north of Portland on the coast and this is not going to be a swing county in 2020, no matter how many pundits claim it is. In 2016 Bernie wiped out Hillary 67% to 33%. Hillary won statewide but lost the ME-02 congressional district and its one electoral vote. In the primary, Bernie had beaten her in every county. In the general Lincoln was close but Hillary won 10,241 (47.8%) to 9,727 (45.4%). In 2018, Lincoln rejected the GOP completely. Angus King beat (I) Republican Eric Brakey 56.1% to a dismal 35.5%. Janet Mills (D) beat Shawn Moody (R) 50.9% to 43.8%. The county performance in the congressional race was an insurmountable D+15.