Flipping Another New York State Congressional State Blue?

Want to see a right-wing nut's head explode?

Big states often have big chunks of territory left over after the congressional districts are drawn, diverse counties and parts of counties that have nothing necessarily in common with each other but don'tfitinto the other districts. In California, the massive 8th district is like that. It goes from the San Bernardino and Redlands suburbs and Yucca Valley and Lake Havasu in the south through Death Valley and Mammoth Lakes all the way north as far as-- though east of-- Sacramento. In New York, the district is the last one, NY-27 in the western part of the state. It includes the left over rural areas between Buffalo and the suburbs west and south of Rochester. 65% of the popuation-- about 92% white-- live in suburbs and 22% live in rural areas. It includes all or part of 8 counties, listed in order 2018 voters and including political performance in the congressional race that year:

• Erie- 124,657 (D+5)
• Niagara- 49,265 (R+1)
• Ontario- 28,373 (D+9)
• Livingston- 24,083 (R+2)
• Genesee- 20,808 (R+13)
• Wyoming- 13,237 (R+28)
• Orleans- 12,640 (R+22)
• Monroe- 12,115 (D+2)

Although, it isn't remotely related to the congressional results, Cook's PVI is a heavily red R+11. Obama lost the district both times by double digits and Trump beat Hillary 59.7% to 35.2%, his best and her worst performance in the state.

The congressional race between Trumpets incumbent Chris Collins and progressive Democrat Nate McMurray was essentially a dead heat, the closest race in the country-- and one neither the DCCC nor the NRCC was involved with:

The two candidates raised around the same amount of money but Collins used banked money to spend $1,811,514 compared to McMurray's $1,252,822.

This cycle is shaping up very differently. First of all, McMurray is no long a basically unknown candidate from one corner of the district (having served as a Grand Island (Erie County) Supervisor. With Collins about to go on trial or, more likely, cop a plea that will include resigning from Congress, for a range of corruption charges, federal, state and local Republicans are frightened that McMurray will flip the seat next year.

There are already 3 Republicans primarying Collins, state Senator Rob Ortt, far right activist Beth Parlato and state Senator and former Secretary of State Chris Jacobs whose family is the wealthiest in western New York. (His family owns the Boston Bruins and his uncle is worth over $4 billion). As of the July FEC report Jacobs had raised $$771,273 to Collins' $516,380, all of it self-funded. (42% of Jacobs money comes from an unidentified source-- like his family-- $323,000 and the rest of it comes from large contributions.

According to Politico state GOP chair Nick Langworthy doesn't think Collins will run in 2020. One of the other candidates, Rob Ortt from North Tonawanda who is unknown outside of his own small district, said "It’s a district where there are a lot more gun clubs than country clubs. I know those voters, and I know the issues that they’re concerned about. They want someone who’s going to go in there, defend the president’s agenda and not be afraid to take on a fight.

Another local GOP official said he spoke to two other interested candidates just this month. Additional names high on the possible succession list include Republican Erie County comptroller Stefan Mychajliw Jr., state Assemblyman Stephen Hawley (R-Batavia) and Medal of Honor recipient David Bellavia, an Iraq War veteran who ran against Collins in 2012, when the incumbent won his first term.

“Obviously you don’t want to wait too long if you are interested and something happens,” said Niagara County Republican Committee Chairman Richard Andres. “It was a very, very strange situation last year, and this will be just as interesting one to watch.”

While there’s no shortage of candidates eager to fill Collins’ seat, it’s not a given that he is too weak to survive. After all, he did manage to win last year even though his indictment was announced just three months before Election Day. Independent polling in the district from earlier this month showed 60 percent of Republican primary voters still view Collins favorably. Next year Trump’s name will be at the top of the ballot-- a boon for the party in a district where 81 percent of Republicans who have recently voted in a primary or presidential election said they viewed Trump favorably, according to the poll from Tel Opinion Research.

“This will be a year where polarization of country will probably hold most Republicans in line,” said James Campbell, a University at Buffalo professor who specializes in political campaigns. “I think it would take an unusually strong Democrat and an unusually divisive nomination battle to put us in the toss-up category.”

Republicans didn’t have much time to triage the news of Collins' indictment in 2018, Campbell said, so it makes sense that primary candidates are coming out strong and local party leaders are receptive to Collins’ challengers.

But if the race widens too much, it could play against those seeking his replacement. And that’s exactly what McMurray, the Democrat who nearly took Collins in 2018, is hoping for in round two, he said.

McMurray, a town supervisor who announced in August that he’ll run again, doesn’t buy the concept that the close margin in 2018 was an outlier due to the year’s Democratic wave election and the fresh nature of Collins’ charges.

He said he believes there are moderate Republicans in the district who have grown weary of both Trump and Collins, but that the current challengers look “fake” and “opportunistic” because they’re taking advantage of Collins’ precarious position.

“Every single person in this district knows who I am now,” McMurray said. “They know I’m the guy who stood up to Chris Collins first.”

The National Republican Congressional Committee isn't getting involved in the primary, but is not concerned about a repeat performance from McMurray, NRCC spokesperson Michael McAdams said.

“There’s not a snowball’s chance in hell that Nate McMurray can win with President Trump at the top of the ticket in a district he won by more than 24 points," McAdams said by email.

McMurray, whose $24,021 in reported cash is dwarfed by Republican candidates' funds, said he’s not running his campaign out of the back of his car this time-- “We’re better than we were a year ago”-- and believes he will have a stronger foundation of support from local and national Democrats who took note of his underdog near-victory in 2018.

The way he sees it, a crowded Republican field can only help. “The primary’s not ‘til June next year and they’re going to rip each other apart before then,” McMurray said.

Blue America has endorsed McMurray again and you can contribute to his campaign by clicking on the thermometer above. He's campaigning on the Green New Deal, on Medicare-for-All, on raising the minimum wage to a livable age and on a general reform platform that targets corruption. He's not a big fan of the Trump trade wars that are harming farmers and small towns in western New York.