Can The Democrats Win Back The Senate? Let's Start With Maine And Alabama

Before we get into the seat a Democrat can capture, we have to realize that there's a super-vulnerable red seat, held by a Democrat who is up for reelection. The state's PVI is R+14 and Trump won that state 62-34%. Their House has 77 Republicans and 28 Democrats and their state Senate has 27 Republicans and just 8 Democrats. The Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer and Agricultural Commissioner-- all the state officers-- are Republicans. There are 6 very white, very Republican congressional seats-- and one giant largely rural black-belt seat with tentacles that incongruously reach out to encompass black neighborhoods in Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and Montgomery. Yep... welcome to Alabama. But they have, almost accidentally, one Democrat in an open U.S. Senate seat, Doug Jones.

Jones won the seat because Trump picked Senator Jeff Sessions to be his Attorney General. The Republicans nominated a child molester to replace Sessions and Jones managed to beat him-- 673,896 votes (50.0%) to 651,972 votes (48.3%) for the child molester. The child molester was heavily supported by pro-molestation politicians Donald Trump and Mike Pence. This year the molester wants to run again-- and many Alabama Republicans are excited at the prospect. Trump tweeted he wouldn't support him and the molester replied that Alabama can select its own senators and that Trump should mind his business. Trump-- really McConnell-- wants Congressman Bradley Byrne to run against Jones. The most recent Mason-Dixon polling shows Moore (the molester) with the highest name recognition of any of the potential GOP candidates. It also shows Moore beating Byrne 27-13%. Moore is ahead of the Republican field among men, women, people under 50 and people over 50.

Jones doesn't have a bad job approval (45-44%) but when asked if they would reelect him, just 40% say yes; 50% say no. So far I haven't seen any head-to-head re-matchups between Jones and Mr. Molester. Conventional wisdom says that Moore would have to win the primary for Jones to have a real shot at reelection.

The dozen other Democratic seats look solid. The best shots the Democrats have for seat flips are Colorado, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina and Georgia. None of these will be easy and a lot will rest on Schumer not sticking his nose into the races and picking terrible candidates who make the Democratic base want to stay home and puke, as is his wont.

Now, let's talk about Maine. Both Sabato and Cook rate it "lean Republican," meaning they think Susan Collins is vulnerable but that she will probably win. The latest polling from Critical Insights is less sure Collins is even that safe.

A little context. Last year 50% of Maine voters disapproved of Trump and just 41% approved. It's much worse now-- 58% disapproval and 34% approval. Mainers approve of their two members of Congress, Chellie Pingree and Jared Golden. And the new Governor, Janet Mills gets a 47%/31% approval/disapproval. Things are less sanguine for Collins. Her disapproval rating has been growing since 2017, when it was 28%. It went to 36% in 2018 and now stands at 42%, about the same as the voters who approve of her (41%). This is bad news, especially compared to Angus King, Maine's other senator, whose job approval is 57%, with just 22% disapproving.

Collins is in a bad Trump Trap. Republicans think she isn't supportive enough. Indpendents and Democrats think she's too supine and doesn't stand up to him enough. 31% of Democrats give her a good job approval, while just 46% of Republicans do. Her vote in favor of confirming Kavanaugh killed her with Dems and independents and didn't help enough with Republicans. She hasn't said whether or not she will run-- nor have Paul LePage and Bruce Poliquin, two sure losers.

So who will the Democrats run? Mentioned most frequently are House speaker Sara Gideon, former House speaker Hannah Pingree, 2018 Senate candidate Zak Ringelstein, state Senator Shenna Bellows, former Lewistown Mayor James Howaniec, former Planned Parenthood president Cecile Richards and, worst of all, EMILY'S List executive and frequent losing candidate Emily Cain, the candidate Collins could beat without breaking a sweat. She's probably Schumer's top choice.

A little aside: Critical Insights also asked Mainers how they feel about the Green New Deal:

• Strongly support- 18%
• Somewhat support- 25%
• Not sure- 22%
• Somewhat oppose 13%
• Strongly oppose 22%