Thursday, September 19, 2019

Will Kansas Be The Silver Spike Through The Heart Of Moscow Mitch?

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Alabama and Kansas are very different demographically-- Alabama, for example, has a sizable African-American population (26.4%) and Kansas' African-American population is just 5.6%-- but the two states have something very much in common: both are Republican bastions. Alabama's PVI is R+14 and Kansas' is R+13. In 2016, Hillary won just 34% in Alabama and 36% in Kansas. Alabam's politics is based on racism. After the Civil War, when the Democratic Party was seen as the more racist, Alabama elected Democrats to statewide offices. For a century after 1878, Alabama elected racist Democrats to the Senate. Jeremiah Denton, elected in 1980, was the first exception, although was defeated by racist Democrat Richard Shelby after one term-- and Shelby quickly switched parties and became a Republican. Then came racist Republicans Jeff Sessions and then... a break in tradition. Doug Jones, a non-racist Democrat was elected to fill out the remainder of Jeff Sessions term. How did that happen? The GOP nominated child molester and crackpot Roy Moore. Conventional wisdom-- in both DC and Alabama-- says the only way Jones can keep his seat next year is if Moore is nominated to oppose him again, which may or may not happen.

Meanwhile, Kansas was admitted to the Union early in 1861 and has basically been a Republican state ever since. The state elected a couple of Populists in the late 1800s and 3 Democrats in its entire history of sending Kansans to the Senate. The last was George McGill who was elected to fill the term of Republican Charles Curtis after he was elected vice president on Herbert Hoover's ticket. Republican Henry Allen was appointed interim senator but by the time the election to finish Curtis' term came along, the 1929 crash had occurred and the state decided to try a Democrat. He was the last one.

The state's senior senator, Pat Roberts (83 years old), has been noticeably senile for a some time and he finally announced he's retiring next year.) The Republican Party's first choice was to replace him with former Congressman Mike Pompeo, currently Trump's Secretary of State. He's passed, more or less. There are 5 Republicans competing for the nomination, former football player Dave Lindstrom, Congressman Roger Marshall, state Senate president Susan Wagle, Bryan Pruitt (a random sociopath from Wichita) and... former reviled Secretary of State and general all around racist and Trumpist, Kris Kobach, who lost the governorship to a Democrat last year. No, really:




There are 4 Democrats competing for their party's nomination-- GOP-lite former Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, former U.S. Attorney for Kansas Barry Grissom, Manhattan mayor pro tem Usha Reddi and frequent failed candidate for various things Robert Tillman.

Last night, wealthy far right extremists from around the country gathered at the New York City Park Avenue apartment of lunatic-fringe billionaire Peter Thiel, founder of PayPal. A big time Trump financier for a fundraiser Thiel-- and Ann Colter-- hosted the event for Kobach. Minimum ticket price was $1,000. Kobach is well-known nationally in far right circles as a regular guest pushing racism and xenophobia on Fox and in his hateful column for Breitbart.

3 neo-fascists on Park Avenue last night



Earlier yesterday Lindsay Wise reported for the Wall Street Journal that the Democrats have a shot at winning: Kobach. An NRSC poll, examined by The Journal for authenticity, shows Grisson beating Kobach by ten points.
The previously unpublished findings reveal why some Republicans are deeply concerned that a Kobach candidacy could cost the party a Senate seat in Kansas-- and why Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been pushing so hard for Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a former congressman from Wichita, to challenge Mr. Kobach for the GOP nomination.

...No Democrat has won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932. But in a statewide Senate race between Mr. Kobach and Mr. Grissom, a former U.S. attorney, Mr. Grissom led Mr. Kobach, 52% to 42%, the poll shows. Every single other Republican tested in a general election scenario led the Democrat by at least eight points.

The poll reviewed by The Journal was conducted June 9-11 for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP's campaign arm. It surveyed 600 likely voters in Kansas, including an oversample of 150 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points.

The poll found Mr. Kobach's image rating underwater across the state, at 32% favorable vs. 50% unfavorable. And there was a strong intensity to voters' negative reactions to his image, with 39% strongly unfavorable toward Mr. Kobach vs. 15% strongly favorable. Among independent voters, his image rating was a net 24 percentage points weaker than President Trump’s.

The poll also showed a generic Republican beating a generic Democrat for Senate in Kansas, 44% to 36%-- suggesting that Mr. Kobach underperformed the generic ballot.

...An outspoken opponent of illegal immigration, Mr. Kobach drew controversy during his two terms as Kansas' top election official for pursuing contentious measures to curb supposed voter fraud.

He announced a Senate run in July, a year after losing the Kansas governorship to Democrat Laura Kelly by 5 percentage points.

The polling reinforces the fears of some Republicans in Kansas and Washington that Mr. Kobach could put their party's Senate majority at risk should he win the GOP nomination. There now are 53 Republicans in the Senate. If Democrats win the White House, they'd have to pick up three seats from Republicans to take control of the 100-member chamber. If Mr. Trump wins re-election, Democrats would need to net four seats, since Vice President Mike Pence would hold the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

With a handful of GOP-held Senate seats already considered competitive in states such as Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina, Republicans don't want to have to spend money and resources defending the Kansas seat as well.



Should Grisson or another Democrat win the seat, the media will likely call it part of a Blue Wave, when it is obviously part of an anti-Red/anti-Trump wave. Imagine though, Kansas voters-- plus Coulter and Thiel-- making Schumer Senate majority leader!

Congressional Terrorist by Nancy Ohanian

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Wednesday, June 05, 2019

Can The Democrats Win Back The Senate? Let's Start With Maine And Alabama

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Before we get into the seat a Democrat can capture, we have to realize that there's a super-vulnerable red seat, held by a Democrat who is up for reelection. The state's PVI is R+14 and Trump won that state 62-34%. Their House has 77 Republicans and 28 Democrats and their state Senate has 27 Republicans and just 8 Democrats. The Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer and Agricultural Commissioner-- all the state officers-- are Republicans. There are 6 very white, very Republican congressional seats-- and one giant largely rural black-belt seat with tentacles that incongruously reach out to encompass black neighborhoods in Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and Montgomery. Yep... welcome to Alabama. But they have, almost accidentally, one Democrat in an open U.S. Senate seat, Doug Jones.


Jones won the seat because Trump picked Senator Jeff Sessions to be his Attorney General. The Republicans nominated a child molester to replace Sessions and Jones managed to beat him-- 673,896 votes (50.0%) to 651,972 votes (48.3%) for the child molester. The child molester was heavily supported by pro-molestation politicians Donald Trump and Mike Pence. This year the molester wants to run again-- and many Alabama Republicans are excited at the prospect. Trump tweeted he wouldn't support him and the molester replied that Alabama can select its own senators and that Trump should mind his business. Trump-- really McConnell-- wants Congressman Bradley Byrne to run against Jones. The most recent Mason-Dixon polling shows Moore (the molester) with the highest name recognition of any of the potential GOP candidates. It also shows Moore beating Byrne 27-13%. Moore is ahead of the Republican field among men, women, people under 50 and people over 50.

Jones doesn't have a bad job approval (45-44%) but when asked if they would reelect him, just 40% say yes; 50% say no. So far I haven't seen any head-to-head re-matchups between Jones and Mr. Molester. Conventional wisdom says that Moore would have to win the primary for Jones to have a real shot at reelection.

The dozen other Democratic seats look solid. The best shots the Democrats have for seat flips are Colorado, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina and Georgia. None of these will be easy and a lot will rest on Schumer not sticking his nose into the races and picking terrible candidates who make the Democratic base want to stay home and puke, as is his wont.

Now, let's talk about Maine. Both Sabato and Cook rate it "lean Republican," meaning they think Susan Collins is vulnerable but that she will probably win. The latest polling from Critical Insights is less sure Collins is even that safe.



A little context. Last year 50% of Maine voters disapproved of Trump and just 41% approved. It's much worse now-- 58% disapproval and 34% approval. Mainers approve of their two members of Congress, Chellie Pingree and Jared Golden. And the new Governor, Janet Mills gets a 47%/31% approval/disapproval. Things are less sanguine for Collins. Her disapproval rating has been growing since 2017, when it was 28%. It went to 36% in 2018 and now stands at 42%, about the same as the voters who approve of her (41%). This is bad news, especially compared to Angus King, Maine's other senator, whose job approval is 57%, with just 22% disapproving.

Collins is in a bad Trump Trap. Republicans think she isn't supportive enough. Indpendents and Democrats think she's too supine and doesn't stand up to him enough. 31% of Democrats give her a good job approval, while just 46% of Republicans do. Her vote in favor of confirming Kavanaugh killed her with Dems and independents and didn't help enough with Republicans. She hasn't said whether or not she will run-- nor have Paul LePage and Bruce Poliquin, two sure losers.

So who will the Democrats run? Mentioned most frequently are House speaker Sara Gideon, former House speaker Hannah Pingree, 2018 Senate candidate Zak Ringelstein, state Senator Shenna Bellows, former Lewistown Mayor James Howaniec, former Planned Parenthood president Cecile Richards and, worst of all, EMILY'S List executive and frequent losing candidate Emily Cain, the candidate Collins could beat without breaking a sweat. She's probably Schumer's top choice.

A little aside: Critical Insights also asked Mainers how they feel about the Green New Deal:
Strongly support- 18%
Somewhat support- 25%
Not sure- 22%
Somewhat oppose 13%
Strongly oppose 22%

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Sunday, March 10, 2019

We May Get Roy Moore To Kick Around Again

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Next year, conservative Democrat, Senator Doug Jones (AL) is up for reelection. He is considered the most vulnerable incumbent from either party-- especially if the Republican national and Alabama establishments are able to shoe-horn their favorite candidate, Congressman Bradley Byrne, into the nomination. Over a dozen other Republicans are also considering running for the nomination-- although, significantly, Jeff Sessions is not one of them. The one who is and who could probably guarantee that Jones keeps the seat is far right crackpot and child molester Roy Moore.

It';s being widely reported that Moore wants to run again. Yesterday Alex Donuzinskis reported for Reuters is "seriously considering" running again. Jones must be praying with all his might that Moore, whose 2017 campaign "was marred by allegations he sexually assaulted or pursued teenage girls while in his 30s," does just that.
In an interview on the Christian program “Focal Point” on American Family Radio, host Bryan Fischer asked Moore about the 2020 race for the Senate in Alabama. “Tell me what you’re thinking about throwing your hat back into the ring,” Fischer said.

“I’m seriously considering it, I think that it (the 2017 Senate race) was stolen,” Moore responded, citing what he described as misinformation campaigns against him.

Senator Doug Jones, a former federal prosecutor, defeated Moore by a narrow margin in a special election in December 2017 to fill the seat vacated by Republican Jeff Sessions when he became U.S. attorney general. Jones was the first Democrat in a quarter-century to be elected to the U.S. Senate in conservative-leaning Alabama.

If Moore, a 72-year-old former chief judge in Alabama known for staunchly conservative views, does decide to run for the Senate in 2020 and secures the Republican nomination, he could find himself facing Jones again. The term that Jones was elected to fill expires at the end of 2020.

Moore’s 2017 campaign to fill Sessions’ seat was beset by allegations from women who told the Washington Post that he had sexually assaulted or pursued them while he was in his 30s and they were teenagers. Moore denied the misconduct allegations.
Alabama voters, who had given Trump a massive 1,318,255 (62.08%) to 729,547 (34.36%) win over Hillary in 2016, apparently didn't believe Moore, electing Jones 673,896 (50.0%) to 651,972 (48.3%). That was the first time since 1986 that Alabamans elected a Democrat to the Senate, in that case, Richard Shelby who, after being reelected in 1992, switched to the GOP two years later.

ProgressivePunch has rated Jones' voting record an "F," but even with his reelection coming right up in a deeply red state, his record this year is better than two other even further right Senate Dems, neither of whom will be facing the voters until 2022:
Doug Jones (AL)- 41.67%
Joe Manchin (WV)- 38.46%
Kyrsten Sinema (AZ)- 38.46%



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Saturday, December 23, 2017

Want To Stop Conservative Democrats From Betraying The Party? Take Part In The Nominating Process

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In the 2006 midterm elections there was a huge wave against Bush and the Republican Party, Despite the DCCC running some really ghastly Republican-lite candidates-- tons of putrid Blue Dogs-- the wave swept them into office. The Republican House losses: 30 seats. The list below are districts that flipped from red to fake-blue and then subsequently flipped back to red once voters realized they been cheated (primarily by DCCC charlatan Rahm Emanuel):
AZ-05- J.D. Hayworth to Blue Dog Harry Mitchell to David Schweikert
FL-16- Mark Foley to Blue Dog Tim Mahoney to Tom Rooney
IN-02- Chris Chocola to Blue Dog Joe Donnelly to Jackie Walorski
IN-08- John Hostettler to Blue Dog Brad Ellsworth to Larry Bucshon
IN-09- Mike Sodrel to Blue Dog Baron Hill to Todd Young
KS-02- Jim Ryun to Blue Dog wannabe Nancy Boyda to Lynn Jenkins
NY-20- John Sweeney to Blue Dog Kirsten Gillibrand/Blue Dog Scott Scott Murphy to Chris Gibson
NY-24- Sherwood Boehlert to Blue Dog Mike Arcuri to Richard Hanna
NC-11- Charles Taylor to Blue Dog Heath Shuler to Mark Meadows
OH-18- Bob Ney to Blue Dog Zack Space to Bob Gibbs
PA-04- Melissa Hart to Blue Dog Jason Almire to Scott Perry
PA-08- Mike Fitzpatrick to Blue Dog Patrick Murphy to Mike Fitzpatrick
PA-10- Don Sherwood to Blue Dog Chris Carney to Tom Marino
TX-22- Tom DeLay/Shelley Sekula-Gibbs to Blue Dog Nick Lampson to Pete Olson
Who cares? Old news? Yeah... but. But the moron Pelosi put in rage of the DCCC is following ever single step Emanuel took in 2006 to "win," including openly recruiting Blue Dogs and New Dems from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party. Many are pretending to be "progressives." So what will happen in 2022, the next crap Ben Ray Lujan candidates will all be beaten the same way Emanuel's crap candidates were beaten in 2010.

On Wednesday LaTosha Brown, southern activist and cofounder of Black Voters Matter, asked-- and answered-- an important question: How Long Does It Take a Southern White Democrat Elected by Black Voters to Shift to the Right? Less Than a Week. "Over the past few days," she wrote, "many voters in Alabama who helped carry Doug Jones to a historic election victory have expressed frustration over recent comments from the senator-elect regarding both President Donald Trump’s alleged history of sexual harassment and the GOP tax bill. In an interview this week with CNN’s Jake Tapper, Jones said that he doesn’t agree with the Democrats who argue Trump should resign from office over the allegations regarding sexual assault and harassment because the allegations 'were made before the election, and so people had an opportunity to judge before that election.' He also gave a less-than-clear answer on how he would have voted on the GOP tax bill, were he given the chance. That Jones would pursue a faulty strategy of shifting to the right is not surprising. In fact, many of those who voted for him expected such a shift, although we didn’t necessarily expect to see it before the election was even certified. What we also did not expect, and what may be more troubling, is the feedback from supporters within the progressive community asking us to 'be patient' with Jones. Such feedback is very reminiscent of the comments from white clergy members urging Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. to wait-- comments which gave birth to Dr. King’s famous Letter From a Birmingham Jail.
Those of us who have dedicated our work and lives to engaging and empowering Black and marginalized communities know that once we allow white candidates to shift right, history shows that they never (or almost never) prioritize the policies and issues most deeply affecting Black voters’ communities. In fact, in most instances these electeds will use the distancing-from-Black-voters tool to build “white political caché” in the South. The cycle of abandonment and lack of accountability never stops because Black voters become their Southern white rallying tool. Unfortunately, Black voters have a long history of being the political pawns of both parties; in recent years we even witnessed and experienced this with our own beloved President Barack Obama. Because of the insidious nature and pervasiveness of racism in this country, Black political abandonment has always generated some level of white political support in the South and in the nation. We have to change this paradigm.

...As a Black woman and feminist, I’m no longer willing to continue to leave my fate and the fate of people in the Deep South who are hurting in the hands of those who don’t have the moral fortitude, courage, or forward thinking to create a shift in the current paradigm of power. Historically, Black voters have blindly supported white candidates we believed (or at least hoped) would “remember us” and our issues legislatively while they publicity shifted or positioned themselves on the right. This has not been an effective strategy for us. The strategy of depending on blind, unaccountable white benevolence for building political power has never quite panned out for Black people, women, or people of color in the South. And it never will.

Additionally, I believe the other severe damage of Jones’ apparent pivot to the right is the devastating and traumatic impact on the psyche and spirits of Black people who went beyond the call of duty to over-perform in the last election cycle in Alabama. What message do we want to send Black voters? Do we think this strategy is sustainable? Are we still imploring a “just wait and see”‘ strategy for Black people more than 50 years after the Voting Rights Act? We will continue to tell Black voters, “Just hold on and wait because this is simply the best you will have to work with.” Do we think young Black voters will stand for this?

We know that it is precisely the type of behavior from elected officials like Jones that creates an uphill burden for the Democratic Party, because it further alienates the Democratic base, feeds voter apathy, discourages civic participation, and supports a narrative that somehow Black people in the South are powerless and only pawns in this two-party system. It was by challenging and resisting this very faulty belief that we actually mobilized the tens of thousands of Black voters who participated in unprecedented numbers in the Alabama election.


No one was voting to guarantee a career for Doug Jones

Sometimes we will focus so intently on the battle before us that we will lose the war. Last week’s election wasn’t about helping the Democrats gain more power, but it was about Black voters sending a strong and clear message to America that we know our collective power, we know that we are the core base for advancing progressive politics in this county, and we will no longer continue to be taken for granted by either party. This election was not about Doug Jones. It was about us. We care about health care, affordable housing, mass incarceration, education, immigrant rights, and tax reform. And as the people who put Doug Jones in power, we will demand his attention to these and other priority issues.

It is for that reason that I think it is critically important that progressives think more deeply about the direct and indirect consequences of Doug Jones’ actions and the intended and unintended damage that his public kowtowing to the conservative right will have on eroding the base and further alienating the very same voters who put him in office.  
Just wait 'til grassroots Democrats get a load of the two corrupt right-wing crap candidates Schumer has picked to run for the Senate from Arizona and Nevada, respectively Blue Dog Kyrsten Sinema (who has the worst voting record of any Democrat in the House) and Sinema wannabe Jackie Rosen. Doug Jones is unlikely to ever be as bad as either.

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Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Midnight Meme Of The Day!

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-by Noah

There you have it. Democrat Doug Jones has ever so narrowly beaten Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump's Great Perv Hope, Judge Roy Moore, in the Alabama Senate race. But, the Alabama race has distilled, for all to see, what it means to be a member of the Republican Party in 2017. Some Republicans would try to sucker you into believing that the votes and predilections of Alabama republicans don't reflect the votes and predilections of Republicans as a whole, but let's get real. The national offices of the Republican Party not only sent Roy Moore their money, they sent the hopes of their highest profile politicians, and they even sent their president; a president with his own issues when it comes to sexual assault and pedophilia to put their names on the line in support of their guy. Meanwhile at FOX "News," they've done a 180 and are blaming Moore, not for his stalking young girls but for just (vaguely) being "a bad candidate". One loon on Laura Ingraham's nightly circus show stressed that Jone's win in no way means that people might start to look toward democrats in the 2018 elections. She called Alabama "an outlier," as if a Democrat winning in Alabama for the first time in decades meant nothing. She assured FOX viewers that republicans everywhere still loved the wonderful Donald Trump. Then it was, immediately back to attacking Robert Mueller. Election? What election?

It's not just that the message of the Republican Party is now "Assault my wife. Prey on my kids. Do whatever it takes to take away my healthcare, my Social Security, ruin the lives of 'gays,' and raise my taxes." Republicans aren't running away from this message. They are campaigning on it.

Should any of this be surprising? No. It's just that they are now more arrogant and confident in their message than ever before. This is the Age Of Trump. Please keep in mind that Alabama had already elected an openly racist and homophobic senator named Jeff Sessions who was once deemed too racist for a federal court appointment but was, just this year, unanimously approved, by all republican senators, to be the Attorney General of the United States. They voted for him four times. That's four six year terms. To my knowledge, no one has accused Sessions of being a pedophile, but, it's safe to say that, in voting for Sessions four times, the people of Alabama pushed the boundaries of what is acceptable (to them at least) to the point where supporting someone who stalks teenagers right into their classrooms was inevitable.

With Roy Moore, Alabama republicans spoke loud and clear and voted to have their state remain 47th in education, 47th in healthcare, and 45th in the economy. They voted against Doug Jones, a conservative Democrat, but a man who dared to prosecute their beloved KKK when they bombed a black church and killed four young girls. They voted for a man who said things were better when we had slavery. They voted for a man, who like Trump, supports Putin. They voted for a man who said that 9/11 was a punishment from God for sodomy. Some of them did it in the name of "protecting babies;" in the name of Republican Jesus, from being educated, being healthy, and having economic opportunities, I suppose; not to mention to turn them over to pedophiles at the malls. "Suffer the little children, and forbid them not, to come to me." That's your Republican Jesus. That's your Republican Party.

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Monday, December 11, 2017

Tomorrow Is Election Day In Alabama. Would Moore Be The Most Vile Man Ever Elected To The Senate? We Already Have the Most Vile President

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Tomorrow is election day in Alabama. I'm rooting for Doug Jones. He doesn't just seem better than Roy Moore-- now there's a low bar-- but better than Jon Ossoff too. I bought into Ossoff, contributed some monet to him personally and Blue America endorsed him and raised him some money. So I was pretty disappointed as the race proceeded from when I first talked to him and the guy who persuaded me he was a progressive came increasingly under the sway of Beltway money-men, consultants and strategists who persuaded him to change his tone and going in a less progressive direction-- away from the energy and more towards the conventionally safe ground the DCCC always gravitates to in red districts: Republican-lite. It sickened me that Ossoff raised and spent $29,544,195 (to Karen Handel's $6,163,039), while the DCCC spent another $5,065,390 on him (and Pelosi's House Majority PAC threw in $650,571). In all, outside groups spent around $8 million bolstering Ossoff and outside Republican groups spent over $18 bolstering Handel. Handel beat him 134,799 (51.8%) to 48.2%-- in line with Trump's 48.3% to 46.8% winnower Hillary a few months earlier. Handel did about 3 and a half points better than Trump had and Ossoff, despite all that money, did about a point and a half worse than Hillary (who didn't campaign in GA-06 at all. He was a weak candidate. And Jones, down in Alabama is better-- and far more authentic.

Alabama's senior senator, Republican Richard Shelby, won't be having a very collegial relationship with Roy Moore if Moore wins tomorrow. On State of the Union yesterday, Shelby told Jake Tapper that he voted already-- but not for Moore. "We call it a tipping point. I think, so many accusations, so many cuts, so many drip, drip, drip-- when it got to the 14-year-old's story, that was enough for me. I said I can't vote for Roy Moore." He added that if Moore is elected, the Senate "will have to seat him, and we'll see what happens after that... The Senate has to look at who's fit to serve in the Senate."

Still, Jones very well may win tomorrow. The Real Clear Politics average of polls has Moore at 49.1% and Jones at 45.3%, too close to call. The only one of the 7 most recent polls Jones was ahead in was from the Washington Post November 30 that showed Jones leading 50-47%. All the others show Jones winning by between 3 and 7%. But... you know how in normal states, people are often embarrassed to say they plan to vote for a Republican and often lie to pollsters? In Alabama it may be the opposite: people are embarrassed to say they'll vote for a Democrat and lie to the pollsters. We'll see; Republicans could be embarrassed-- should be embarrassed-- to admit they're voting for a child molester.

As of September 22, the last FEC reporting deadline, Jones had spent $9,034,232 and still had $2,543,090 in his campaign warchest and the child molester had spent $4,455,952 and had $636,046 left. Over $7 million has been spent against Moore (mostly by Luther Strange allies in the primary) and $1,529,978 had been spent opposing Jones. A ton of right-wing money has poured into the race in the form of independent expenditures in the last 10 days and we have no figures on that yet.


But if you look on the Blue America Senate endorsement page, you won't find a slot for Jones. We reached out to him the day he announced but he never got back. We reached out a week later and a week after that. People from his campaign even told me at one point they'd get us on the phone together. It never happened. And even though nearly everything I've read about Jones indicated he would be a good candidate, without an interview, I couldn't ask Blue America donors, who expect a degree of vetting, to contribute their money to him (instead of, say, to Tammy Baldwin's reelection campaign or even Beto O'Rourke's race against Ted Cruz). So, like I said, I'm rooting for Jones tomorrow and I'll probably pray for him when I wake up at 4am. But... I didn't contribute my own money, we didn't endorse him and I never asked Blue America donors to send him any money.

That said, I was pretty surprised when I read a critique of Jones from a North Alabama DSA member: Doug Jones is a Terrible Candidate. The DSA member seems to think Jones is not much more than the lesser evil compared to, in her words, the candidate who "is a wretched, disgusting, pedophilic rapist who deserves absolutely no place in any leadership position." Then the big "but." She wrote that "The problem with Doug Jones is revealed not when you point out what he hasn’t done that Roy Moore has, but rather when you look at what Doug Jones says he plans to do, or, as is often the case, not do. At a time when the already abysmal American healthcare system is at threat of being outright gutted by congress, Doug Jones has repeatedly shied away from supporting Bernie Sanders’s Medicare For All plan, and has not backed single-payer healthcare (an immensely popular policy proposal) despite the fact that his very own website states that he believes “Health care is a right, not a privilege limited to the wealthy and those with jobs that provide coverage.” Jones has also shied away from dedicating himself to supporting a $15 livable wage, again, despite the fact that his own website says that he “strongly support[s] ensuring working Alabamians receive a living wage for their hard work.” And, in a time when the college debt crisis is racking up in the trillions of dollars, he has not endorsed any sort of tuition-free college education program, despite--  and I know this is getting tiresome--  his own website stating that “Providing a quality education to all children is the key to a long-term thriving economy.”
[L]ooking at Doug Jones’s campaign website is an enlightening look into the extent of his tiptoeing mediocrity. Clicking the “Priorities” section immediately greets you with a phrase that thrusts into your face Jones’s nauseating fetishization of respectability politics: “Bring integrity back to Washington.” Moving on from the meaningless blurb that is that sentiment is the “Economy” section of this page which starts out with the very telling phrase “Small businesses are truly the backbone of the American economy.” This, despite the fact that workers, not businesses, are the backbone of any economy, and that American workers are continually laboring longer and harder for less and less pay while the capitalists who own these businesses are making more and more, is what Doug Jones feels is most important to state first in his campaign website’s “Economy” section.

Going back to respectability politics; Doug Jones loves it. A lot. It is difficult to hear Jones speak for more than thirty seconds without him mentioning “bipartisanship” or “reaching across the aisle.” Jones cares so much about respecting the “other side of the issues” that his campaign put out an ad that described the Civil War as “two sides believing so strongly in their cause that they were willing to die for it”, and citing the example of a Confederate and a Union General coming together as a virtuous act that should be encouraged. One must think hard about what exactly Jones is willing to compromise on if he sees shaking hands with a General who fought for the preservation of chattel slavery as even a possibility.



The Civil War ad is not the Jones campaign’s only advertising misstep. In a move that garnered some national headlines, the Jones campaign decided it appropriate to mail out fliers that read “Think if a black man went after high school girls anyone would try to make him a senator?” with the picture of a black man underneath. Being that it was a flier that was clearly indicative of some racialized thinking of its creator, there was justified backlash to it--  many calling blatantly racist.

It would seem as if the Democratic Party of Alabama decided to back not only one of the most mediocre and uninspiring candidates possible in a time of strong populist sentiments, but also a candidate who is too racially insensitive to run ads that don’t glowingly reference Civil War “compromise” or spit directly in the face of the black community.

Come election day, Alabamians will have the sacred honor of participating in the democratic process by voting for either a child rapist or a weak-kneed white blob in a suit to go work on Capitol Hill for some unknown corporate donor. Personally, I can’t say that I will be taking part.
OK, since she brought up "sacred," I'll definitely pray when I wake up tomorrow morning and ask Jesus to grant Alex the wisdom to do the right thing and vote to help the guy who prosecuted the KKK terrorists get into the Senate instead of the deranged Trumpist who would be working to harm her every single day in every single way. But... a nice new poll from, of all places, Fox News. This looks like a very wide margin-- and is at odds with all the other polls we've looked at. Fingers crossed! We'll see how accurate they were mañana, won't we?



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Tuesday, December 05, 2017

Message To Democratic Candidates: The GOP Will Try To Paint You As A Pelosi Puppet. If You're Not, Inoculate Yourself NOW

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It was actually silly for Trump to tweet yesterday that Democratic Senate candidate Doug Jones is somehow a Pelosi/Schumer puppet. And, an hour later, he repeated the focus group-tested phrase. Puppet? Pelosi puppet? Jones is running for Senate and Schumer's name isn't toxic enough (yet) among the Fox/Hate Talk Radio masses to stand on its own. Evan McMullin laughed at Trump's childish foray into politics: "Trump may attempt to co-opt the term 'puppet' by using it against his rivals, but only he won an election with the help of a foreign power to which he remains loyal." But the puppet attack worked when the Republicans used it against Jon Ossoff in Georgia, didn't it?

A few weeks ago, John Rogers, the executive director of the NRCC, admitted that tarring all Democratic candidates with a connection to Pelosi-- whether true or not-- is the GOP's only real strategy for trying to stave off catastrophe in the 2018 midterms. Ossoff was a unique candidate-- a pointless nothing-burger of a candidate who was unable to define himself because he stood for nothing at all except his own career hopes. His nothingness and pointlessness allowed the Republicans to jump in and successfully define him as a Pelosi puppet, spurring Republican turnout in an Atlanta suburban district that isn't especially enamored of Trump.

Ossoff and the lamer than lame DCCC didn't even try tarring the Republican candidate-- Karen Handel, basically another careerist nothing-burger-- with Paul Ryan's massive unpopularity. Remember, the Republican Party has spent a decade and millions of dollars turning the Pelosi brand into shit-- the innate misogyny among conservatives didn't hurt their cause-- much the way they had done the same thing to Hillary Clinton-- politics of personal destruction-- but with no effort on the part of the DCCC, Paul Ryan is even less popular among voters than Nancy Pelosi is! Recent polling has Ryan's unfavorable rating at 49.3%, compared to 48.7% for Pelosi. Derrick Crowe, the Blue America-endorsed candidate in the Austin-San Antonio district Lamar Smith is giving up, told us that "Jon Ossoff lost because he refused to fight for key progressive values, concern-trolled government spending like a Republican, and didn't live in the district. His campaign also lacked message discipline and kept throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what would stick. When that's the campaign you run, you let the other side define you, and you don't sufficiently inspire your base to close the gap for you. To put it mildly, that's not the campaign we're running here in TX-21. A vote for me is a vote for a clear set of progressive values that puts us on the side of the working class against corporate power and the billionaires. Anyone who wants my vote for Speaker of the House will have to demonstrate that they are the best vehicle to advance those values in Congress."

Many Democratic congressional candidates are already saying-- in advance of any attacks-- that they're not eager to see Pelosi as Democratic Leader again anyway. Take Oklahoma City candidate Tom Guild. He said he wants to see who runs but that "it would be hard to do worse than Paul Ryan..." The ideal candidate he described certainly isn't Nancy Pelosi: "I want a progressive who can pass an increase to the minimum wage, single payer health care, a massive infrastructure bill to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure while creating millions of good paying jobs, direct and hasten the transition to renewable energy sources, and invest in America before looking for new overseas military adventures. I will take this decision seriously and am not in anyone’s hip pocket."

Jared Golden had a similar perspective. He's running for the Maine seat Trump won in 2016, now held by Trump rubber stamp Bruce Poliquin. Golden is the Majority Whip of the state legislature and he has a clear understanding about how legislative bodies work. One of his primary opponents happens to be straight out of Pelosi's coterie of super-wealthy elites. Golden didn't mince any words. "It’s time for a new generation of leaders in Washington. My support will go to the leader that shows me they care about and understand the priorities of working class people-- it’s got to be someone serious about rebuilding an economy that doesn’t leave small rural states like Maine behind. I want to serve with leaders that demonstrate they have the courage to fight for progressive values and the ability to work across the aisle to deliver results. We need service-driven leaders who will do what’s best for this country and I believe that’s to fight for the great majority-- working and middle class people." Again... not a description of Nancy Pelosi.

James Thompson, currently running for Congress in a Kansas rematch, has a very different perspective on this than anyone else because he just went through the experience a few months ago. "I ran for Congress in the 4th District of Kansas in the very first Special Election after Trump was inaugurated," he told us. "The DCCC claims they did not help my race because they did not want to 'nationalize it.' Yet, as soon as I received the nomination from the Kansas Democratic Party to run for Congress, the Republican Party 'nationalized' the campaign by immediately tying me to Leader Pelosi, saying she hand-picked me and that I was her puppet. Ron Estes and the Republicans in Kansas, led by the KOCH brothers ultra-conservative political machine, never met a lie they didn’t like. I had never met, nor even spoke with, Nancy Pelosi and yet was being branded like a bull with her unpopularity here in Kansas. She sure never helped my race, and the mere mention of her name hurt my campaign. The same ads used against Ossoff, were used against me by simply switching out his picture for mine. The night of the special election, Leader Pelosi called and offered her condolences for my loss. She was warm, friendly and sympathetic and I greatly appreciated her taking the time out of her busy schedule to call me. While I respect her as a person and her accomplishments as Speaker of the House, her time in leadership needs to end for the good of the Democratic Party. With better leadership from the party, we may have been able to harness the progressive wave sweeping the country and possibly win some of the Special Elections. The Democratic Party needs an infusion of new progressive leadership like Keith Ellison and Ro Khanna. Regardless of whether it is true, Republicans will brand every Democrat with the Pelosi brand in hopes of sinking campaigns in 2018 with the mere mention of her name. New leadership needs to take over and lead the fight for a 50 state strategy. If Leader Pelosi is still in office when I get to Congress, I will vote for new leadership that will ensure the Democratic Party fights in all 50 states."

Jess King (PA-16) is in the final stages of Blue America vetting. She fits right in as a smart, super-progressive with all the right motivations. Please notice how she responded to our question about Pelosi's leadership going forward: "Working families in Pennsylvania are angry at the corporate establishment in both parties. Too many Democrats have spent too much time chasing the donations of multi-millionaires, and that's led a lot of voters to distrust politicians. We're rebuilding that trust in Pennsylvania by putting forward a vision of an America that works for all of us, not just the wealthy and well-connected in Washington. That means Medicare-for-all, debt-free public college, and a humane pathway to citizenship for our immigrant brothers and sisters. And it also means elevating a new generation of leaders in the Democratic Party, leaders who will fight to level the playing field for working families instead of cutting deals with Wall Street donors." (If Jess' response is picture-perfect and just how Democrats should approach this, the Pelosi candidate in the primary, Christina Hartman, has nothing to say about anything other than dull, vapid, overly-careful focus group-tested bromides and failed DCCC talking points. Primaries matter.)

Justin Santopietro is another new candidate, who, like Jess Parker, was suggested to us by Bernie's brilliant economics advisor, Stephanie Kelton. He's running in southwest Virginia (VA-09) and earlier today he told us "The right wingers' attempts to smear all Democratic challengers as 'Pelosi Puppets' is even more laughable in rural districts like mine, where the national party has no presence whatsoever. All the professional politicos and consultants in Washington think of politics now as purely a numbers game, so they rarely if ever commit resources to areas that have 'gone red' in recent years. Even though a Democrat has represented my district for 35 out of the last 50 years, the number crunchers at the top of the party consider areas like mine unwinnable. In the end, this may turn out to be more of a blessing than a curse, since the national party has proven time and again that they don't know how to persuade or motivate voters in rural areas. Thankfully, the local Democratic organizations are in many ways the exact opposite; while they often lack in human and financial resources, they actually live and pray among rural people, and know that they can in fact be persuaded to back populist-style Democrats-- if only the national party would let them. And now that congressional Republicans have giddily exposed themselves as right-wing servants of the uber-wealthy, populist bread and butter economic campaigns can be extremely effective in working class districts like the fightin' 9th."

Pennsylvania state Senator Daylin Leach, the progressive Democrat likely to defeat Ryan rubber stamp Pat Meehan, doesn't think the NRCC has much salience left. "I actually think that this is a silly strategy, at least in my district. First, Nancy Pelosi hasn't been in the majority for 8 years. She is literally responsible for nothing that has gone wrong in America in recent times. That's all on Paul Ryan and his caucus, which has completely sold their souls to the insane, bigoted narcissist Donald Trump. If I were a Republican candidate, I would be panicked about being tied to those two. My voters are very smart and attacking me for some imagined connection with a person who has not had the power to implement policy for 8 years and who I have never had a conversation with will be met with the appropriate eye-rolls." Daylin has a pretty strong brand-- to put it mildly-- and when the Republicans try to define him as a Pelosi puppet, voters will likely think the GOP has lost its mind.

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Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Right-Wing Snowflake Roy Moore Is Now Threatening To Sue Alabama's 3 Biggest Newspapers For Exposing Him

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I have no idea how many Alabama voters even read newspapers, let alone factor their endorsements into their decision-making, but the 3 biggest newspapers in Alabama have a message for the voters there: "Stand for decency; reject Roy Moore." All three-- the Birmingham News, the Mobile Press-Register and the Huntsville Times-- endorsed Democrat Doug Jones. And they all put the endorsement on the front page of the Sunday papers. The 3 share the state's top website, AL.com and they're featuring it as well. The papers had already pointed out that Moore is ""grossly unfit" to represent the state in the Senate but this was the first time they endorsed Jones. Moore says he's suing them. Excerpts from the editorial:
This election is a turning point for women in Alabama. A chance to make their voices heard in a state that has silenced them for too long.

The accusations against Roy Moore have been horrifying, but not shocking.

Every day new allegations arise that illustrate a pattern of a man in his 30s strutting through town like the cock of the walk, courting and preying on young women and girls. And though Roy Moore has denied the accusations of these women, his own platform and record is hostile to so many Alabamians.

Unlike the national party, the Alabama Republican establishment has chosen to stand by him, attacking and belittling the brave women who have come forward.

As a news organization, we have independently investigated stories of several Alabama woman who have spoken to us and the Washington Post about the abuse they say they suffered at the hands of Roy Moore decades ago.

The seriousness of these incidents, including one involving a 14-year-old child, cannot be overstated. Nor can the growing number of accusations-- from the women who were at the receiving end of unwanted adult male overtures as teens, to those who say they were physically assaulted--  be parsed with talk of statutes of limitations or whether proof has been recorded on a stone tablet. In the American system, proof beyond a reasonable doubt is a consideration for the courtroom, not the ballot box. It is our job as voters to look closely at the candidates and make up our own minds.


Do not let this conversation be muddled. This election has become a referendum on whether we will accept this kind of behavior from our leaders.

Alabamians have never cared about what the rest of country thinks of them. And we do not expect all the handwringing from national pundits, conservative or liberal, to make much of a difference. This election isn't about what a late-night comedian may think of Alabama or whether Sean Hannity can sell advertisements; it's not about Saturday Night Live or Mitch McConnell. It's not about Breitbart or National Democrats. It is about the moral values of the people of Alabama.

Do not make your voting decision based on who it will affect on a national stage. Vote based on who it will affect in your hometown... A vote for Roy Moore sends the worst kind of message to Alabamians struggling with abuse: "if you ever do tell your story, Alabama won't believe you."

Or, worse, we'll believe you but we just won't care.

To be clear: it's not only his record on women and children that disqualifies Moore. If we vote for Roy Moore, Alabama will also show that we don't care about you if you're gay or Muslim or Catholic. If you're an atheist or an immigrant. We'll show each other that we only care about Roy Moore's definition of Alabama. And that there's not room for the rest of us.

...Despite what you may have heard, Doug Jones is a moderate Democrat and a strong candidate for all Alabamians. As the son of a steel family, he understands the concerns facing working class families as factories close and jobs disappear. He's been an active member of Canterbury United Methodist Church in Birmingham. He has built a platform around issues that will define Alabama: job creation, small business development, child healthcare, criminal justice reform and, perhaps most needed of all, compromise.

By bringing justice to four little girls killed at Birmingham's 16th Baptist Church, Jones helped Alabama move forward from the sins of our past. But unlike some national Democrats, he isn't interested in shaming Alabama voters because of their history. As a Red State Democrat, we expect Jones would have a larger seat at the table crafting policy in the Senate. Neither Majority Leader Mitch McConnell nor Minority Leader Chuck Schumer would be able to take Jones' vote for granted (for relevant examples look to West Virginia's Joe Manchin, Montana's Jon Tester or North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp). That would put Jones in a strong position to work with Sen. Shelby to secure policies that benefit Alabamians.

While Jones is a vocal Christian, despite Moore's claims to be the sole Christian in politics, we know his pro-choice stance may be a deal breaker for some Alabamians, but his stance only advocates the law as it is currently written. After a year of complete control of the White House, the Senate and the House, we are skeptical that this Congress plans to pass any relevant legislation on abortion. Jones' commitment to affordable healthcare for women and children will improve the lives of Alabama's families, and, for us, his pro-choice stance is not disqualifying.

What is disqualifying is the conduct of Roy Moore against women and children. It was disqualifying for his party leaders. It was disqualifying for Alabama's senior senator. And it should be disqualifying for his state party.

By the various misdeeds, miscalculations and mistakes of its voters and leaders, Alabama has left itself with few options. Alabamians must show themselves to be people of principle, reject Roy Moore and all that he stands for.

There is only one candidate left in this race who has proven worthy of the task of representing Alabama. He is Doug Jones.
Moore sent the parent company, Alabama Media Group, a cease and desist letter. Their attorney responded with a letter of his own telling them will will neither cease nor desist and that they'd be happy to see Moore in court, urging him to preserve all "materials, documents, writings, recordings, statements, notes, letters, journals, diaries, calendars, emails, videos, computers, cell phones, electronic data, and other information" and warning him that in court that would certainly "reveal other important information about" the child sex predator and his campaign... "Which is to say: Be careful what you wish for, Mr. Moore."



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Wednesday, November 01, 2017

Alabama Crackpot Roy Moore Visitting Washington

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Although there was a Fox poll last week that showed a 42-42% dead heat between Democrat Doug Jones and Nazi Roy Moore in the Alabama's special Senate election December 12, a new Fox poll shows the Nazi way ahead of Jones-- 52% to 41%. Moore is in DC tonight for a fundraiser hosted-- according to Moore's campaign-- by Utah Senator Mike Lee. A spokesman for Lee said the "fundraiser is not on our schedule."

Yesterday Moore was trying to pretend to be an ordinary Republican and not an actual fascist. Sean Sullivan and Dave Weigh reported that it wasn't working. "Roy Moore," they wrote, "arrived in the Capitol to play an unfamiliar role: Republican conformist. By the time he left, he was once again a lightning rod for controversy."
The hard-right former judge made his second trip to Washington on Tuesday as his party’s Senate nominee in Alabama. Unlike the last time he was in town, Moore decided to mingle with the Republican establishment he has villainized on the campaign trail.

He joined Republican senators at their weekly policy luncheon. Most backed his opponent in the primary. He chatted with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), his bitter foe.

Afterward, he refrained from reiterating his criticism of the Kentuckian. Moore also dodged questions from reporters about incendiary statements he has made about a Muslim serving in Congress and gay people, declaring that he was not there to “answer any questions about issues.”

As he made the rounds, some of Moore’s potential future Republican colleagues strained to separate themselves from him. One even attacked him head-on in a speech on the Senate floor.

The visit offered a preview of the headaches Moore’s presence could cause for Senate Republican leaders should he prevail in a Dec. 12 special election to fill the seat once held by Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

...Asked by one reporter whether he still thinks Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) should not be a member of Congress because he’s Muslim, as Moore wrote in a 2006 opinion piece, Moore replied, “I’ll address that later.”

Did he still think “homosexual conduct should be illegal,” as he said in a 2005 television interview?

“I’m not answering any questions on issues right now,” Moore said.

He said he spoke at lunch to McConnell, whom he has vowed to oppose as leader. But as he departed the second floor of the Capitol, he said he was “not going to give an opinion” on that matter at that moment.

Less than two hours later, Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), a frequent critic of the far-right and President Trump who is retiring at the end of this Congress, used a floor speech in favor of a conservative judicial nominee to condemn Moore.

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Sunday, August 20, 2017

If Ole Trumpanzee Doesn't Even Have Any Coattails In An Alabama GOP Primary...

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The final count in the Republican primary in Alabama was 164,524 (38.87%) for crackpot Roy Moore and 138,971 (32.83%) for Trump and McConnell-backed establishment incumbent Luther Strange. Another crackpot, Rep. Mo Brooks took 83,287 votes (19.68%) and a scattering of 7 vanity candidates split another 30-some-odd thousand votes between them. Moore and Strange will face off in a runoff on September 26, the winner of which will then face Democrat Doug Jones, former U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, who won his 8-person primary with 109,105 votes (66.12%) on December 12. The only poll out for the GOP runoff shows Moore beating Strange 45-34%. As of August 18, Strange and PACs backing him spent had spent $3.4 million and Team Moore had spent $127,000. Much of Strange's money came from McConnell and Trump.

So how will Trump and McConnell handle the runoff? Trump is already trying to protect his own tarnished image by claiming Strange only did as well as he did because of the Trumpnazee seal of approval. McConnell will spend more millions of dollars.
And while Moore has plenty of detractors in-state who see him as a fringe rabble-rouser, even Strange’s allies admit the race is an uphill battle-- one where heavy attacks from Washington-based outside groups risk backfiring on their candidate in a state where voters detest being told what to do.

“Luther’s liabilities are how he got there and that the McConnell Washington crowd have been so heavy-handed in supporting him,” said one Alabama Republican strategist who supports Strange in the race.

“We’re a state full of folks who like to fight, who are defiant, we don’t like following rules, and that’s why Roy Moore is popular,” said David Azbell, a longtime Alabama GOP strategist. “A lot of folks think he can shoot off a lot of fireworks in D.C. while not doing a lot of harm.”

Alabama voters are also furious over a series of scandals that have rocked statehouse, and that taint got all over Strange with his appointment to the Senate. Strange had been the state attorney general in charge of the investigation into disgraced Gov. Robert Bentley (R)-- until Bentley appointed him to fill Sessions’ seat shortly before Bentley was forced to resign over a sex scandal.

Some saw Bentley’s support as a quid-pro-quo to get Strange out of his business. That’s a problem when paired with the association with McConnell, who has become a bogeyman on the right.

“Any time you’re the incumbent and 70 percent of people voted against you it’s hard to bounce back,” said Alabama GOP strategist Chris Brown, who ran the campaign of the fourth-place finisher, state Sen. Trip Pittman (R), and is neutral in the runoff.

Azbell, who backed Pittman in the primary, dislikes Moore enough that he’s never voted for him, skipping his line on the ballot both times Moore was the GOP nominee and working against him in past primaries. But he’s ready to break with precedent.

“I really don’t want Mitch McConnell and Robert Bentley telling me who my senator is going to be,” he said.

Moore is already looking to jiu jitsu McConnell’s backing, blasting the “silk-stockinged Washington elitists” supporting Strange.

It’s not the first time that’s worked for him: Moore won back his judicial seat by running against, and handily defeating, another Bentley appointee in 2012.

Strange’s allies argue that Moore will struggle to grow his appeal outside of his intense core of loyal followers. But the combination of an off-year primary, voters’ intense dislike of the traditional GOP establishment both in-state and in D.C. create the perfect climate for a Moore insurgency.

“Roy Moore has the intensity,” said GOP strategist Jon Coley, a Strange supporter. “Roy will turn his people out. Luther’s got to turn his people out and find a bunch more.”

The big question is how to do that.

The appointed senator will need to boost his support in a big way in the state’s more urban business communities-- especially in and around Huntsville, Brooks’ base-- and his allies worry that a deeply negative race may just turn off voters and convince them to stay home, leaving Moore with his rabid but limited base of support with the upper hand.

The strategy from the pro-McConnell Senate Leadership Fund of playing for a Strange runoff with Moore by destroying Brooks paid off. And while they’re off TV right now, they offered a glimpse of how they plan to attack Moore going forward, with ads attacking him for taking a $1 million salary from the Christian organization he runs and for flying on private airplanes with the organization’s money. A Washington Republican strategist said the group is now finalizing their strategy for the runoff.

Moore has deep support on the hard right for his repeated stands athwart the tide of social change-- in a state whose official motto is “We dare defend our rights.”

Moore has twice been forced from the state Supreme Court bench for disobeying court orders, first for installing, then refusing to remove, a monument to the Ten Commandments outside his courthouse, then just a few years ago for ordering his state to ignore the Supreme Court’s ruling legalizing gay marriage nationwide.

And Strange faces another challenge, with one of his best surrogates sidelined and another being notoriously unpredictable.

Sessions is a close ally-- Strange helped on his campaigns and followed him as state attorney general. But Sessions doesn’t plan to have any involvement in the race because of the ethical constraints of his current job.

And while President Trump’s endorsement was a huge boost for Strange in the first round, it’s unclear what he’ll do going forward.

Trump’s tweets and a late robocall backing Strange likely helped boost him to second place and kept alive his hopes of staying in Washington. But Trump hasn’t been unequivocal in his support. The president’s reaction to the runoff result was a pair of tweets congratulating both candidates-- and himself.

“What Trump does from here will be interesting to see. Luther must be holding his breath that Trump doesn’t have another post-Charlottesville and start flip-flopping on this. I’m holding my breath if I’m in his camp that this thing sticks for six weeks,” said the Alabama strategist supporting Strange.

It’s unclear how the next six weeks will shape up. But one thing’s for sure, according to Coley: “It’s going to be nasty.”


So what about the Democrat Doug Jones? A friend of mine active in local Alabama politics told me that "Jones is not the Joe Manchin of Birmingham. Doug Jones is a progressive, and I don't mean 'the most progressive candidate you can hope for from Alabama.' Doug Jones is a progressive in Alabama and he'd be a progressive in Maryland or Oregon or California or anywhere else. Jones was US Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama during the Clinton administration. He reopened the dormant case of the 16th Street Baptist Church bombing and sent two klansman to jail for it. He was on scene at the Birmingham abortion bombing within minutes and brought the indictment against Eric Rudolph for it. Take a look at his issues page. He isn't hedging. He lists as 'priorities' strengthening public schools, paying a living wage, affordable college, affordable child care, combatting climate change, rejoining the Paris Accords, preserving access to contraception and abortion care, funding Planned Parenthood, equal pay for equal work, preserving and expanding ACA, and healthcare as a right. Doug Jones," he continued in an e-mail, "is a quality candidate who can raise money and stands for our values. I'm not being pollyannaish. This is going to be hard. We're still the underdog. But if we organize and direct overwhelming national resources, this can be done and we can take one more vote away from Mitch McConnell."

I tried confirming Jones' progressiveness personally but haven't heard back from him or his campaign yet. Jonathan Lee Krohn, writing for The Intercept, reported that "In the Deep South state of Alabama, Jones isn’t shrinking from a fight against white nationalism. 'Fifteen years ago, I actually went up against the Klan, and we won,' Jones began his victory speech Tuesday night. 'I thought we’d gotten past that, but obviously we haven’t.' All of a sudden, it matters who Doug Jones is."
So who is he? Best known for his work as U.S. attorney here in Alabama, Jones, in 1998, famously re-opened his office’s investigation of the 1963 Birmingham church bombing. Before he left office in 2001, Jones brought murder charges against two of the surviving Klansmen responsible for the attack, ultimately seeing both men convicted and sentenced to life in prison.

Republicans in Washington see Jones as a major threat-- the perfect candidate to take down Moore. The question is whether there’s a state party behind him.

Once upon a time, Democrats controlled Alabama.

As a matter of fact, Democrats controlled state government in Alabama for over 100 years-- from Reconstruction until 2010-- and near the end they seldom agreed with each other on much of anything. But that didn’t seem to matter; they were in charge.

“Alabama’s Democratic Party, it was just an umbrella,” Jones told The Intercept. “You had people standing for civil rights, and at the same time you had people standing in the schoolhouse door.”

Around the turn of the century, the main dispute was between the white, socially conservative Blue Dogs from up north and the more progressive-minded, largely black representatives from the cities. The salve that kept everyone together was patronage, the party’s deep war chests, a voter turnout machine that bussed thousands of Alabamian Democrats to the polls, and the fact that they just kept on winning.

“[T]he party at the time was really just a confederation of factions that elected whoever they’re going to elect. And the only time it was really important was when a president was elected and there was patronage,” former Jones continued. “You know, U.S. attorneys and judgeships, that sort of thing.”

The bombing case was the only major civil rights case Jones worked on. Since leaving public service in 2001, while Jones has worked on the occasional corporate civil rights case, he’s primarily worked as a defense attorney for businesses and white collar criminals.

That included one particularly high-profile defendant: In 2004, Jones defended former Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman, a Democrat, in his first trial regarding bribery charges. Legendary District Court Judge U.W. Clemon dropped the case, saying the allegations against Seigelman were unfounded, but in 2006 the Bush administration’s Department of Justice again began vigorously pursuing Siegelman, claiming he had used the governor’s office to benefit campaign donors.

Siegelman has long claimed his case was the result of a political hit ordered by Karl Rove, who had previously worked as a consultant for the Alabama GOP and was pushing for his conviction in order to help Alabama Republicans. Local politicians in both parties condemned the prosecution, but he was convicted and sentenced to seven years in prison.

Whatever Rove’s intention, inside Alabama, the fall of Don Siegelman was a major blow to the state’s Democrats, helping contribute to the party’s ultimate collapse in 2010. The GOP picked up eight Senate seats and 18 House seats in 2010, winning a supermajority in both chambers in the national tea party wave.

Once Republicans had taken over, they began doing what they do so much better than Democrats: tilting the rules so they can stay in power. In December 2010, just a month after the Republicans had won both houses of the State Legislature, Gov. Riley called a special session. Immediately, the Republicans introduced legislation making it illegal for professional associations to take money for dues out of state employees’ paychecks. This made it impossible for the Alabama Education Association (AEA) to collect membership dues from teachers’ paychecks.

The ban decimated the AEA and similar organizations that had bankrolled Democrats for decades. Suddenly, the state party was in free fall, with no money to cushion their fall.

Nancy Worley became party chair three years after the cataclysmic events of 2010. “I came into this office in 2013 and we were broke,” she said. “In fact, people were here waiting to turn off our power, that kinda thing.”

After Siegelman’s conviction, Jones continued to fight on on his client’s behalf. In 2007, Jones testified in front of the U.S. House Judiciary Committee that he believed Siegelman’s conviction was “driven by politics” and not by a pursuit of the facts.

“There is no question in my mind,” Jones told the committee, according to a contemporary report in The Nation, “that the Justice Department in Washington was behind the investigation.”

While Siegelman was finally released from prison earlier this year, and has recently begun speaking around the country in support of a documentary about his trial, he has not yet appeared on the campaign trail or publicly endorsed Jones.

After his victory Tuesday night Jones said he wants to let Siegelman take care of himself and revisit with friends and family before concerning him with the rat-race of Alabama politics again.

The last candidate to come close to winning as a statewide Democrat in Alabama was a little-known circuit court judge named Bob Vance, who ran for chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court in 2012.

The man he lost to-- by a mere 2 points-- was Judge Roy Moore, the current front-runner in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate... Vance finished the race with 48.2 percent of the vote, unheard of for a Democrat in Alabama these days. But in the end, Mowrey says, the campaign couldn’t overcome the fact that many Alabamians support Moore’s bigotry, his “states rights” stance on gay marriage, and his distaste for federal interference in what he deems religious affairs.

Vance finished the race with 48.2 percent of the vote, unheard of for a Democrat in Alabama these days. But in the end, Mowrey says, the campaign couldn’t overcome the fact that many Alabamians support Moore’s bigotry, his “states rights” stance on gay marriage, and his distaste for federal interference in what he deems religious affairs.

“It’s very hard to communicate that [Moore] puts himself above the law,” he explained, “because there’s this section of the Alabama electorate who says there’s nothing wrong.”

Jones said that moderates like those Vance appealed to voters in the Birmingham suburbs of Shelby and Blount County-- which in 2016 went 72 percent and 89 percent, respectively, for Trump-- are the key to “narrowing the gap.” And while he admits he has no chance of winning most voters in these heavily white, Republican counties, he says he’ll consider his campaign a success if he can simply make inroads.

“I don’t have to win Shelby County or Blount County, I just have to narrow the gap and get people rethinking how they’re gonna vote,” Jones said, his Birmingham drawl getting stronger as he gets excited, “And when you start narrowing that gap in those counties you’re gonna start narrowing the gap on a statewide basis and people are gonna have to take you seriously and they’re gonna have to talk to ya.”

The reason Jones is so optimistic about getting his message out there is that the Republican Party of Alabama has given him a very good reason to be.

The two top contenders, Moore and Strange, are both damaged goods, and are widely reviled across the state. Moore, who says that trans women are just trying to get “special treatment” by identifying as female, has a strong base within the state’s massive evangelical population. But outside of those voters, even within the Republican Party he is seen as a liability. A staffer for a competing campaign compared him to Todd Akin, a former GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate in Missouri whose odd thoughts on “legitimate rape” cost him the race.

Strange, meanwhile, was appointed to hold this Senate seat in February after Jeff Sessions became Donald Trump’s attorney general until this special election could be held. At the time of his appointment by Gov. Robert Bentley, however, Strange was the attorney general and his office was investigating Bentley for alleged use of state resources to cover up an extramarital affair he’d been having with a senior staffer.

Many Alabamians thought at the time there must have been a quid pro quo between the governor and Strange, but he took the seat anyway. Subsequently, Strange has also come under investigation for alleged campaign finance violations in both his Senate campaign and his prior AG campaigns. A hearing is scheduled for Wednesday, August 16, the day after the primary.

Both of these candidates would, in an ideal world, be perfect opponents for the squeaky-clean Jones. But, despite being well-liked by every Alabamian I meet, Republican and Democrat, he has one fatal flaw.

“He’s got one big issue,” Strange’s campaign manager, Michael Joffrion, points out. “He’s got a ‘D’ after his name.”

In a state Donald Trump won with 62 percent of the vote, Jones knows victory is a long-shot. On Tuesday night, Moore alone got roughly as many votes as all of the Democrats combined. But the Jones campaign is still ebullient.

“Do not let anybody ever tell you Doug Jones cannot win this special election,” said Jones’ son-in-law, who introduced him Tuesday night. “What you will find if you look at the numbers tomorrow-- this is gon’ be close-- right now in Jefferson County, this county, … right now he has as many votes in this county where you worked as Luther Strange and Roy Moore combined.” (Jefferson County is an urban, solidly Democratic county.)

While Jones won comfortably, his vote total would have only been enough to finish third in the GOP primary. To win, he’ll have to bring new voters to the polls in December, and win votes from Republicans who despise Moore-- which, fortunately for Jones, exist in healthy proportions.

Jones, the former U.S. Attorney who prosecuted two Klansmen responsible for the 1963 Birmingham Church bombing, has begun pushing the issue of Charlottesville onto his Republican opponents. Endorsed by a plethora of national Democratic figures, including Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., the Congressional Black Caucus, and former Vice President Joe Biden, Jones is attempting to appeal to the heart of a deeply conservative state with his record on civil rights.

...For Jones, though, this campaign began more as an opportunity to spread the Democratic message to the farthest reaches of Alabama than an attempt to turn Alabama blue. “We’ve got to get back into areas where we’ve been traditionally losing races and we’ve got to start narrowing the gap,” he told The Intercept. “For our campaign, our goal is to reach as many people as we can.”

But “narrowing the gap” in Alabama is a big ask.

Since 2014, Democrats have retained control in just eight of the state’s 35 Senate districts. While these districts comprise less than half the state’s population, they include a whopping 94.3 percent of Alabama’s black population and just a quarter of the state’s much large white population.

That means Doug’s gap exists somewhere among that vast majority of white Alabamians who live outside Democratic districts and voted overwhelmingly for Trump last fall. The problem is, these are the very voters Alabama Democrats have done precious little to court in recent years.

The chair of the Alabama Democratic Party, Worley, seems resigned to the party’s fate.

“You need to look at the demographics in North Alabama,” she said. “I don’t have to tell you that there’s a huge racial divide in the state of Alabama, along with the whole south. I mean, LBJ predicted that when he signed the Civil Rights legislation, you know, that he was crossing out the south.”

During the last legislative election cycle in 2014, in Worley’s second year as chair, Democrats lost seven seats in the state legislature, and didn’t even bother to field a candidate against Republican incumbents in another 58 districts.

Instead of attempting to compete, Worley’s strategy has been to stay put. Democrats now only have four legislative districts in North Alabama, for example, where they once had a majority of seats. The Democratic retreat to Birmingham and Black Belt is a microcosm of the national Democratic retrenchment on the coasts and in cities. More than a decade after former DNC Chair Howard Dean launched his 50-state strategy, the party is effectively nonexistent in many parts of the country. That makes capitalizing on an opportunity like the one Moore presents that much more difficult.

One of those remaining North Alabama Democrats is Rep. Craig Ford, the former minority leader in the state House. He has just two words for Worley and her fellow Democratic leaders who have given up on white Alabamians. “Party leadership,” he said. “I’m tellin’ ya man, I can’t tell ya enough: Party leadership is everything.”

Craig blames the leadership in the party that “made it all about race” and failed to tailor their message to a changing state. He also blames Worley, by name, for not encouraging Democrats to compete outside Birmingham and the Black Belt.

Doug agrees that the party is in shambles, though he refuses to go after Worley and the leadership. He traces things back to 2010, when the Democrats lost majorities in both houses of the state legislature for the first time since Reconstruction, ushering in seven years of complete Republican control.

“When folks started losing their base, their offices, people didn’t know how to respond,” he said. “They didn’t know how to be a two-party state so instead of gelling around a cohesive party theme-- not that it’s check the box, check the box, check the box, but general themes of Democratic party politics-- they tried to outmaneuver Republicans to the right and you can’t do that. And so they continued to lose races, and then you get demoralized.”

Up until this point, Democrats have “never really had a party,” Jones continued. Instead, it was a coalition of politicians in a one-party state who called themselves Democrats for political necessity.

“I think if we can get those candidates out there, we will end up with a party structure,” Jones concluded, optimistically. “The rest will kind of fall into place.”

Ford is even more optimistic. With the right party leadership and the right candidates, he thinks Alabama’s Senate seat could turn blue.

“A Democrat could win that U.S. Senate seat,” he said, though he clarifies himself with the help of a friend. “Somebody besides a Republican could win that race.”


UPDATE: Sometimes I Get Crazy Email

This one, very badly formatted by someone who is unfamiliar with how to work online, came from Roy Moore's campaign:


"Being within 10 points or less, (Strange's supporters) may pour another $3 million to $5 million into the runoff. There will be a negative onslaught on Roy Moore that he's never seen before."
-- Alabama Veteran Political Analyst Steve Flowers

Howie,

After Tuesday night's first-round victory over Mitch McConnell, all eyes nationwide are focusing in on the battle brewing for U.S. Senate in the upcoming September 26 run-off election.



And Howie, the pundits all seem to agree on one thing -- It’s going to get nasty over the next 6 weeks


Can I count on you to stand with me by chipping in a generous contribution of $1,500, $1,000, $500, $250, $100, $75, $50, $35 or $25 to my campaign’s “Conservatives United” Money Bomb to help me fight back and win?

Howie, the September 26 run-off election is THE ultimate national showdown between the Washington insiders and conservative Republicans who are sick of Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan and the rest of the establishment in Washington.



Unless conservatives rise up and deliver the final blow to the Washington establishment on September 26, you and I could be staring down the barrel of Mitch McConnell entrenched as Senate Majority Leader.



That means ZERO chance at REPEALING ObamaCare!



 ZERO chance at securing our border and building Trump’s wall.

ZERO chance of cracking down on illegal immigration.



ZERO chance of rebuilding our military.



And ZERO chance of restoring respect for the Constitution and the rule of law in Washington.

You and I must not allow that to happen.



That’s why I’m counting on your immediate financial support to help my campaign finish the job and DEFEAT Mitch McConnell on September 26.

You see, my establishment backed opponent begins the run-off with MILLIONS of dollars in his campaign coffers.



And that doesn’t include the tens of millions of dollars Mitch McConnell and Karl Rove plan to spend viciously attacking me and my campaign.



Friend, the situation is dire.



According to my Finance Team my campaign coffers are exhausted from yesterday’s election.

Based on current budget estimates, the first Phase of our Two-Phase Voter Contact and Outreach Victory Operation will cost roughly $150,000 to execute effectively.



And the bad news is, the deadline to fund this critical program is midnight on August 31.



So won’t you please stand with me in this all-out fight against McConnell and the establishment by chipping in the maximum amount you can afford to donate to my campaign’s "Conservatives United" Money Bomb immediately?

Of course, I understand only a few people are able to afford $2,700 ($5,400 per couple) -- the maximum legal amount under federal law.



If you are such a person, I believe this run-off election is an investment worth making. The future of the U.S. Senate -- and our country -- depends on the outcome.



But I also understand that $250 or $100 may be all many folks can give.



In fact, I know for some, $25 or $35 is a stretch.

And for others -- $10 or $15 can be a major sacrifice.



Whatever amount you can chip in to help out at this time, your contribution is greatly appreciated and will be put to immediate use to fund our Voter Contact and Outreach Victory Mobilization Program.


You and I are on the verge of defeating the establishment and taking our country back.



But Howie, Mitch McConnell and Karl Rove are ruthless.



Rumors are circulating they’re already scheming to pull the same dirty tricks on me that they pulled on Chris McDaniel in the 2014 run-off election for Senate in Mississippi.



This includes spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy Democrat votes in the September REPUBLICAN run-off.



To defeat McConnell and the establishment, I must be able to count on your immediate support.


So please stand with me in this historic fight against Washington by chipping in a generous contribution to my “Conservatives United” Money Bomb.


Thank you in advance for your support!

Sincerely,

Judge Roy Moore

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