Finally... The Youth Vote Was Real This Time

Mike Siegel didn't win his nearly impossible race in TX-10, a district with an R+9 PVI where Obama lost by 20 points to Romney and Trump beat Hillary 52.3% to 43.2%. The Republican incumbent, Michael McCaul is rich, powerful and very entrenched. The DCCC ignored the race but Mike ran a classic grassroots campaign that held McCaul down to 50.9%, his weakest showing since first being elected in 2004. Last cycle the Democrat received 38.4% and the cycle before that 34.1% even in the Democratic wave elections of 2006 and 2008, one Democrat got 40.4% and the next 43.1%. In other words, Siegel did better against McCaul than anyone else ever had. He raised $437,883 compared to McCaul's $1,618,946. There was no significant outside spending to bolster either candidate. So what happened to bring Siegel's vote so much higher than any previous Democratic campaign there?

He's an exceptionally good candidate. He put together an exceptionally good team. Blatant and bigoted voter suppression none county-- something he fought and won-- brought him local and national exposure. All good. And Trump, of course. But what that enough to jump from 38.4% to 46.9% in 2 years?

At the end of October, I caught up with Mike as he was driving from one small town to another in the middle of the sprawling district. He gave me an in-depth look at early voting in the district. I wasn't surprised that women were voting significantly more than men-- 52-48%-- but there were two things that did surprise me. One was that Travis County (Austin) had registered 94.5% of all eligible voters, which is the highest number I've ever heard in my life. On election day, the county wound up give Mike a gargantuan D+43 advantage. And the other point was that millennials have been voting at unprecedented rates. Democrats are always waiting for younger voters to come through-- but they rarely do. Mike's anecdotal and local statistical data was backed up by Harvard's Fall 2018 National Youth Poll. The poll looked for engagement for voters between 18 and 29 years old and found them to be "significantly more likely to vote in the upcoming midterm elections compared to 2010 and 2014. Overall, 40 percent report that they would 'definitely vote' in the midterms, with 54% of Democrats, 43% of Republicans and 24% of Independents considered likely voters."

This morning I talked with Mike again. I'm hoping he runs again, of course and when I asked him about the youth vote, I heard a lot of optimism. "The vote confirmed what we were feeling on the ground," he told me, "that this seat is winnable, and that we have large pockets of potential Democratic voters who are waiting to be engaged in the political process. My team is sitting down to analyze what we did well and what opportunities we left on the table. The 10th District will remain in its current form for one more election in 2020, before the map is redrawn again. Even though Tom Delay and Karl Rove worked to draw this District to be 60% Republican, we think it could flip Democrat if we continue to build on our gains this year."

A follow-up memo, released Wednesday, from John Della Volpe, the director of polling at Harvard's Institute of Politics, confirmed that young voters did indeed turn out-- bigly!

He referenced a study from Tufts University that found that "approximately 31 percent of youth (ages 18-29) turned out to vote in the 2018 midterms, an extraordinary increase over the CIRCLE estimate in 2014 and the highest rate of turnout in at least 25 years. In 2014, IOP estimates that approximately 10.8 million young Americans voted (Democrats preferred 54%-43%), compared to 14.7 million in 2018 (Democrats preferred 67%-32%). The actual number of Republican votes cast by those under 30 remained stable from 2014 to 2018, while nearly all of the nearly 4 million increase in turnout came from those supporting Democrats.

Voters under 30 (estimated share of 13% of electorate) were credited by NBC News analysts as one of the key groups that led to a Democratic takeover of the House, along with African Americans (estimated share of 11%), Hispanic/Latino Americans (share 11%), and those with no religious preference (17%).  Exit polls have indicated that voters under 30 preferred Democrats by a +31 margin, tracking closely with our final IOP poll conducted after the Kavanaugh hearings that indicated a Democratic preference of +34.  For example, if the proportion of young voters on Tuesday mirrored traditional midterm youth turnout, districts such as TX-32 (incumbent House Rules Chair Rep. Pete Sessions lost by -6) and GA-06 (Newt Gingrich’s former seat, won with 2,145 vote margin by Democrat Lucy McBath) would likely not have flipped from Republican to Democratic control.

According to analysis of exit polls, young voters also played a critical role in Democrats winning the Senate seat in Nevada, and made the Texas Senate race more competitive than polls predicted (RCP average Cruz +6.8, Cruz was winning by 2.62 points with 97% of ballots counted). Exceeding the national youth margin for Democrats (from +31 to +37, likely because of young Hispanic voters), propelled Jacky Rosen to victory in Nevada over incumbent Dean Heller.

...In Texas, voters under 30 preferred O’Rourke to Cruz, 71 percent to 29 percent (+42), and among those between 30 and 44, the margin was cut to only +4, 51 percent to 47 percent; Cruz won the over 45 vote by +16.  Compared to the national electorate, O’Rourke overperformed with voters under 30, but underperformed with those between 30 and 39. If his margin of support among 30 to 39 year olds better reflected the national electorate-- he would have won the election. Estimates are they he would have needed a margin of 20 points or less with voters in their 30s.

In Florida, voters under 30 preferred Gillum to DeSantis, 62 percent to 36 percent (+26), and among those between 30 and 44, it was 61 percent to 33 (+28) percent for Gillum; DeSantis won the over 45 vote by +9.

In the Georgia race for Governor, Kemp led with both men and women (+6 for men and +1 for women); however, among voters under 30, Abrams led by +27, by +16 among 30-to-44 year olds, and lost those over 45 by +19.

While we will not have a final tally of votes cast for several weeks, Edison Research has estimated as many as 113 million may have voted, and the United States Election Project has estimated a national turnout of 111.5 million which makes this the first midterm election that will surpass the 100 million vote mark. The Election Project projects a national turnout rate of 47.3 percent which equals the 1970 rate and trails the modern record of 48.7 percent from 1966.  We are confident that the increased turnout rate among young Americans under 30 matched, and likely surpassed older age groups-- and will set modern records once tallies are finalized.

A generation that has consistently told us in polling that they have more fear than hope about the future seem prepared to further engage in politics and policy (look for a more progressive domestic agenda and heightened demand for gun violence prevention legislation).  We fully expect that they will play a significant role in shaping our country's future through their commitment to service and renewed interest in politics.

On a national basis, young voters overwhelming preferred Democrats over Republicans in 2018. Both CNN’s and CBS’ exit poll analysis indicated a preference of 67 percent to 32 percent (+35) for Democrats; in Fox’s analysis the margin was 59 percent to 32 percent (+27).  In 2014, the Democratic advantage was +11 and in the 2016 presidential, the Democratic advantage was +19.

Age now accounts for one of the most significant divides in America; 35 percent of the electorate was estimated to be younger than 45 years old and they preferred Democrats, 61 to 36 percent (+25); among those 45 and older, Republicans were preferred by one percentage point.

Women preferred Democrats +19, men preferred Republicans by +4.  Among white voters, Republicans were preferred by +10, while Blacks (+81), Hispanics (+41), and Asians (+54) preferred Democrats. College graduates preferred Democrats by +13, while those without a college degree split evenly. White men preferred Republicans by +21, white women split evenly, 49 to 49 percent.

With Democratic preference at 67 percent in exit polls, this is a marked improvement over the 55 percent of the vote that Hillary Clinton received according to 2016 exit polls and the 54 percent that Democrats received in the 2014 midterms.

...Based on analysis of Early and Absentee voting patterns by Democratic data firm TargetSmart, it was found that the share of voters under 30 who voted early increased by a higher percentage than any other age group in the electorate, from 5.39 percent in 2014 to 8.67 percent in 2018.  This is a difference of more than 2.1 million additional votes.

...Based on analysis of Early and Absentee voting patterns by Democratic data firm TargetSmart, it was found that the share of voters under 30 who voted early increased by a higher percentage than any other age group in the electorate, from 5.39 percent in 2014 to 8.67 percent in 2018.  This is a difference of more than 2.1 million additional votes.

NextGen America published a list of 41 “youth-dense precincts” across the country to monitor over the course of Election Day. More than 50 percent of all registered voters in each of these “Youth Vote Indicator Precincts” were between the ages of 18 and 35. In 40 precincts that have comparable data from 2014, it was found that turnout increased on average from 24 percent to 45 percent. Turnout increased in 93 percent of the 40 precincts-- and in some cases, turnout eclipsed 60 percent, including in CA-49’s UC-San Diego precinct, FL-05’s Tallahassee/Florida A&M precinct, NH-02’s Hanover/Dartmouth College precinct, and PA-07’s East Stroudsburg University precinct.