The Trump Referendum

National Journal's Josh Kraushaar started the year very reticent about predicting a blue-- or, more accurately, an anti-red-- wave. Yesterday he was writing more realistically about GOP gloom and doom, albeit still defending his own lack of vision by referring to "rank-and-file members who looked in solid shape several months ago." The battle lines have moved deep-- really deep-- into the GOP heartland, with Ryan's slimy SuperPAC unleashing millions of dollars to defend floundering Republican incumbents Fred Upton (MI), Mia Love (UT), Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA), Karen Handel (GA), Brian Mast (FL) and George Holding (NC), as well as more red open seats like the ones seeing Dennis Ross (FL) and Tom Garrett (VA) retire. "The flurry of cash in GOP-friendly areas," wrote Kraushaar, "also underscores how big the map of targets has grown, forcing any Republican running in a remotely-competitive district to worry about their political future. Privately, Republican leaders expect to lose around 30 seats-- and the House majority-- but acknowledge that there could be a number of unexpected outcomes pushing those numbers higher on Election Night. That’s an all-too-realistic scenario given the supercharged liberal engagement in districts across the country, lackluster re-election efforts from unprepared GOP members of Congress, and impressive fundraising figures from even long-shot Democratic challengers."

Outside GOP groups particularly Ryan's SuperPAC but plenty of other dark money groups funded by a small handful of billionaires, have been effective in undermining some of the leading Democratic challengers in conservative districts. The flood of smears against some of the best Democrats running, like Randy Bryce and Kara Eastman, have taken a toll, as voted have been left confused and unsure about what to believe and where they heard what. While conservative Democrats under attack by this outside sewer money have been defended by the DCCC, most progressives have not been. So far Ryan and allied PACs have spent $1,280,743 smearing Kara and $2,446,043 smearing Randy Bryce, the DCCC and Pelosi's PAC have spent a total of ZERO on defending either of them. Nor have they put a cent into defending Ammar Campa-Najjar against the vicious racist attacks the GOP has rained down on him. There's a torrent of DCCC and Pelosi cash for Blue Dogs and New Dems-- but nothing at all for progressives like Mike Siegel in Texas, J.D. Scholten in Iowa, Jess King in Pennsylvania or James Thompson in Kansas. You know what that Blue America thermometer above is for-- righting that wrong so that these candidates can execute their get out the vote strategies.

You know what we're going to hear a lot of for the next week? The elections are a referendum on Trump. You're been hearing it here at DWT all year. And it's true. To a pretty big extent, the midterns are always a referendum on the president and his party. But this year, more than ever. How will we know that hypothesis is true? It's true if you see between 50 and 60 seats flip a week from Tuesday. Have you ever heard of a president-- even a make-believe, illegitimate president like the asshole Putin installed-- spending all this time-- at our expense no less-- campaigning with his cookie-cutter/one-size-fits-all bullshit and nonsense?

David Remnick's new column for the New Yorker, The Midterm Elections Are A Referendum On Donald Trump, is dated the day before the voting, but it's out now. "What," he asks, "is there left to know about Donald Trump? Robert Mueller, various state officials, and a legion of reporters around the country are dedicated to penetrating any stubborn mysteries that still linger, yet who can argue that there is insufficient evidence to make a rational judgment about the character of the man, the nature of his Presidency, and the climate he has done so much to create and befoul?"

The #MAGAbomber case will be investigated more months to come "but what’s already clear is that it occurred at a moment of tragic division and conspiracy-mongering generated, foremost and daily, by the President of the United States. The right has no monopoly on insult and incivility-- the online universe can be a sewer of spite-- but there is no real equivalence: no modern President has adopted and weaponized such malevolent rhetoric as a lingua franca. Trump is a masterful demagogue of the entertainment age. His instruments are resentment, sarcasm, unbounded insult, casual mendacity, and the swaggering assertion of dominance. From his desk in the Oval Office, on Twitter, and at political rallies across the country, he spews poison into the atmosphere. Trump is an agent of climate change, an unceasing generator of toxic gas that raises the national temperature."

When the leaders of the Republican Party first acquainted themselves with Trump’s rhetoric and character a few years ago, many of them were appalled. Ted Cruz, after hearing Trump insult his wife’s appearance and insinuate that his father bore some responsibility for the assassination of John F. Kennedy, called his rival a “pathological liar,” a “snivelling coward.” But, after Cruz became one more casualty of the 2016 Republican primaries, and reckoned that he could not hold his Senate seat while attacking Trump, he, like almost every other light of the “party of Lincoln,” capitulated. The G.O.P. is now Ted Cruz writ large, a political party that has debased itself in the image of its standard-bearer.

The midterm elections are being held in an atmosphere of immense national stress. It could only be so when the singular actor in the drama is Donald Trump, who thrives on the idea that American life is a daily cliffhanger, in which the hero bravely sets out to deepen the divide between his supporters and everyone else, to dismantle international agreements and alliances, and to protect corporate interests over the interests of working people and the natural world. There are, unquestionably, countless local and regional issues being debated, but, above all, this election is a referendum on Trump, a contest between his base and those who feel that it is in the national interest to establish at least some brake-- a new majority in the House of Representatives, a new crop of governors and state legislators-- to slow his disintegration of American life and his despoilment of the national spirit. Two years ago, the prospect of a Trump Presidency represented an emergency. Tens of millions of voters found a reason to stay home. This year, the polls are tight. The stakes cannot be overstated.

YouGov's polling from Friday showed an average disapproval of 10 points for Trump. Marist, my favorite pollster-- also from Friday-- showed Trump down an average of 13 points. Their generic ballot shows Democrats up by 10. The Big Sky poll from the university of Montana, doesn't just show Tester being reelected to his Senate seat 48.9%to 38.8%, it shows a race that was barely on anyone's radar outside of Montana, the House race pitting violent GOP incumbent Greg Gianforte against a not well-known Democrat, Kathleen Williams, beating him 45.8% to 45.3%. He spent $8,632,559 ($2,500,000 from his personal bank account) to her $2,852,527. Friday polls showed Bill Schuette floundering hopelessly in the Michigan gubernatorial race; Congressman Stevan Pearce without a hope to be New Mexico's next governor and Laura Kelly beating Kris Kobach in Kansas, 40-36%. Meanwhile, Democrats continue publicizing the fact that Trump has endorsed their opponents: