Wednesday, October 24, 2018

How About A Bernie New Order To Save Us From The One Percent?

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Here's hopin'

A post yesterday depressed me-- let me share it with you... no, just kidding; I already did: Why We Can't Have Nice Things. I felt right after I posted it that I couldn't just let it lie there, unresolved. And I was trying to figure out how to walk myself down off the ledge when my friend-- and yours, too, I hope-- Skip sent me a post by Brian Hanley he found at Medium that did the trick: 20 Reasons Bernie Sanders Is The One To Beat Trump In 2020 The other post left off with why the Democratic Party elites suck as bad as the Republican Party elites and that both are at war more against the working class, than with each other. This one sabot the only solution I see even vaguely on the horizon: Bernie. So how he can win-- twenty reasons why, no less... I'm buyin'!
1. He’s on track to win the 2020 primaries.

If New Hampshire’s 2020 primary were held tomorrow, polls show Bernie Sanders edging out former VP Joe Biden by 7 points. But Sanders is more than the frontrunner in the first scheduled primary of 2020, he also has a higher probability of defeating Donald Trump than any other potential candidate. According to the most recent polls, Sanders commands the largest lead over Trump, followed by Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.

2. He’s the most likely to win the Electoral College.

Most notably, Sanders can capture the must-win battleground states that Clinton failed to. In 2016, he upset Clinton in both Michigan and Wisconsin, which in the general election she desperately needed to win, but capitulated. Sanders would have won both states, as he did in the primaries. After all, he defeated Clinton by a total of 152,337 votes in Michigan and Wisconsin. Clinton lost both to Trump by a total of 33,452 votes. Had Sanders been the nominee, Dems would have won both by a margin of ≈100k.

That alone would have deprived Trump of 26 electoral votes, reducing his grand total of 304 down to just 278. Remember, 270 is what’s needed to win it all. Sanders, as the 2020 nominee, could nearly deny Trump the presidency by turning blue two states that he’s already won. He also has the popularity to flip Pennsylvania and Ohio. Even Trump’s personal pollster, Tony Fabrizio, concedes, “I think Sanders beats Trump.” Sanders has “the ability to reach a lot of the less than college-educated, low-income white voters.” [This goes to the heart of what in the post from yesterday that I was just crying about needs addressin'-- and resolution.]



3. He’s the most popular politician in the country.

While Trump broke the record for the worst favorability ratings of any nominee in history, Sanders maintains the highest favorability scores of any elected official. Sanders continues to be the most popular politician in the country by a large margin. He’s the only one on either side who the majority of voters like. Even a Fox News survey found that no other politician was more well liked and most Republicans say that he’s honest.

4. The kids are crazy about him.

While Sanders remains admired across demographic groups, he’s most competitive due to his record-shattering popularity with young people. In the Michigan primary, 81 percent of young Democratic voters cast their ballots for Sanders; in New Hampshire, 83 percent did. Sanders turned out more young people in the primaries than Obama did in 2008, receiving more votes from young people than Clinton and Trump combined.

5. He’s a savage on social media.

To beat Trump, Democrats need to run a candidate who can compete with the President’s enormous social media influence. One of Sanders’ secret weapons is the digital media empire he’s built with the help of his Media Producer, Armand Aviram, formerly a politics producer at NowThis. Sanders uploads thousands of originally produced videos to his social media channels, in which he and other progressives champion major issues like Medicare for All. Some of his more scripted videos feature Sanders talking directly to camera. However, it’s not uncommon for Sanders and Aviram to strike viral gold completely serendipitously. For example, when Jim Carrey recently appeared on HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher, the actor described the benefits of Canada’s healthcare system. Within hours, Aviram sprang into action, cutting the video into a shareable package that was distributed across the Senator’s platforms. Within 10 days, the video garnered over 12 million views on Facebook alone. At the top of the video was a NowThis-style title that read: “Jim Carrey Explains Universal Healthcare.”

Sanders’ team first developed and refined this approach during the 2016 primaries. When a bird landed on Sanders’ podium in Portland, his digital team converted the once-in-a-lifetime moment into viral multimedia and an online fundraising windfall.

Sanders and Aviram understand that while a live speech like Carrey’s can influence the millions watching in real time, capturing that moment and turning it into a viral video can reach tens of millions more in the days ahead. Aviram uses text cards (or subtitles) in his videos to convey the most important messages, while allowing viewers to follow along with their volume off, which most viewers prefer. It’s the ripple effect that social media enabled, and the production techniques that Sanders’ team perfected, that allow a moment like Carrey’s to live on and even reach a targeted audience segment.

6. He’s the undisputed leader of the progressive movement.

Sanders and Aviram have not only hacked virality, but they have also seen their content move the needle politically. Their videos and live streams many times eclipse the major cable news networks in terms of viewership. It’s all online, like the bulk of Sanders’ fundraising. Coincidence or consequence, his videos have hit billions of views, while at the very same time, support for the Senator’s trademark policies such as Medicare for All have skyrocketed. Not long after Sanders hosted a town hall to discuss universal Medicare, which 1.1 million people live streamed, polls found a seismic shift in public support for the program. 70 percent of Americans now support it, compared to 53 percent who supported it in 2017. Supporting Medicare for All, which Sanders pushed relentlessly into the mainstream, is now practically a prerequisite to running in 2020.

7. His supporters are as passionate as anyone’s.

Enthusiasm matters in elections and Trump’s base is clearly fired up for 2020. You need a candidate who can match that energy and so far, Sanders is the only one who can surpass it. He attracts larger rallies than the next two presidential hopefuls combined.

It’s not all about cult of personality either. Sanders has a long history of talking about, and fighting for, the issues that most Americans care about. Voters have caught on to the influence big money has on our politics. They know that politicians represent the people, or too often, the special interests, that fund their political campaigns. When it comes to tackling big issues like climate change, voters trust Sanders’ integrity.

8. He’s the king of grassroots fundraising.

At a time when 77 percent of Americans want to get money out of politics, Sanders has established the political purity test for progressives by not accepting a single dollar from special interests and depending instead on small individual donations. He raised more individual campaign contributions in his 2016 bid for president than any other candidate in US history. No other Democratic candidate is less reliant on big money and more in command of a grassroots fundraising army. It’s going to take, not only the passion of his diehard base, but also cold hard cash to stop Trump. Sanders can raise more money than any other candidate without taking a dollar from special interests.

9. His message resonates with Trump voters.


Sanders beats Trump on grassroots fundraising, but he also beats him on messaging. Trump’s whole message is that he’s the only one capable of taking on the establishment. That’s a much harder sell when your opponent is Bernie Sanders, the guy who can’t be bought and never once took a dollar from the NRA or fossil fuel industry.

10. He’s a leading voice on environmental justice.

According to the latest polls, 91 percent of Democrats say they worry a great deal or fair amount about global warming. Millennials worry about it more than any other issue. Across political parties and ideologies, 70 percent of Americans want the government to take “aggressive action” on climate change. Sanders’ plan to invest in clean, sustainable energy and create millions of jobs in the process, stands in stark contrast to Trump’s insistence that climate change is a hoax invented by the Chinese.

11. He has more experience and organizational readiness than the rest of the field.

Sanders has unique experience as a Mayor, Congressman, Senator and former Presidential candidate. He’s already been vetted on the national stage. He’s been through most of the presidential election process, knows how to debate and knows how to secure delegates. He couldn’t have a more robust grassroots infrastructure in place and ready to mobilize. He has one of the most valuable email lists in all of politics. He has everything he had at the end of his presidential bid and everything he’s built since.

12. He has crossover appeal that his competitors lack.

As Sanders’ former campaign manager, Jeff Weaver, put it, “If you look at the sentiment of the people, nobody wins the presidency with just the people in your own party.” Sanders has “an incredible strength” in his “unique appeal” to independent voters, and even former Trump voters. It’s his crossover appeal that makes Sanders so dangerous.

“Yeah but he’s not even a Democrat.” Democrats must consider whether this is precisely why he’s so popular. More Americans identify as independents than Democrats or Republicans, so why not run one, especially at a time when the Democratic Party is the least popular it’s been in 25 years and Sanders offers an opportunity to change that?

13. He may not be a Dem, but he’s given Dems life.

Despite being an independent, Sanders remains the prominent voice in the Democratic field. He’s spent the last two years campaigning for progressive down-ballot candidates, introducing legislation to protect American workers and holding Trump accountable. He, more than any other American, popularized issues like universal healthcare, marijuana legalization and tuition free college while simultaneously destigmatizing socialism. The fact that even most Republicans now support Medicare for All is a remarkable development. It means there’s bipartisan support for one of Sanders’ trademark policies.

14. He’s stronger than ever due to the DNC’s reforms.

Looking ahead to the next primary, superdelegates will play a diminished role, which is gamechanger for Sanders. Aside from Clinton herself, superdelegates were the biggest obstacle Sanders faced in the 2016 primary. The Associated Press called the primary contest for Clinton days before California, the nation’s most delegate-rich state, even had a chance to vote, basing its decision on the superdelegates’ support for Clinton.

In 2020, Sanders can rest assured that the superdelegates won’t tip the scales in his opponent’s favor. Since passing sweeping reforms in August, the Democratic Party decided superdelegates will no longer be allowed to vote on the first ballot, meaning they can no longer determine electoral outcomes, except in contested conventions.

15. He may be in his 70’s, but so too are his main competitors.

Since Sanders has few others, his biggest perceived challenge in 2020 will be his age. He’ll be 79 on Inauguration Day 2021, but Biden will be 78 and Trump will be 74. Hillary Clinton will be 73 and Elizabeth Warren, 71. All the frontrunners will be in their 70’s.

16. He may be old and white, but minorities like him.

Another perceived challenge will be that he’s an older white man. But 73 percent of registered black voters and 68 percent of hispanic voters view Sanders favorably. Plus, Sanders has a proven track record of fighting racial and economic inequality. In the 1960s, he marched with Martin Luther King, Jr. and was arrested protesting segregation.

17. He may be a socialist, but so too are growing numbers of Americans.

“Bernie’s a socialist. America isn’t ready for that…” Actually, the numbers tell a rather different story. According to Gallup, more Democrats now approve of socialism than capitalism. And Millennials say they’d rather live in a socialist country than a capitalist one. Sanders has effectively destigmatized the socialist label. While all Democrats may not yet embrace Democratic Socialism, the vast majority do support Sanders’ policies.

18. He’s authentic.

Sanders, who’s known for straight talk and uncombed hair, isn’t slick like traditional politicians. As Paul Farhi of The Washington Post writes, Sanders is “too busy conjuring Big Ideas to care about such trivialities as clothes and hair.” In that way, he’s a unique antidote to Trump: he too defies certain political norms in a way that excites the public.

Last time Sanders ran, he was still the most popular candidate, but he didn’t have the national profile he enjoys today. The fact that he’s remained as well liked as he has, while becoming as well known as he has, is a rare feat indeed considering the amount of mudslinging and divisiveness in modern American politics. Sanders, who’s critical of Republicans and Democrats alike, stands out as one of the few authentic voices in an otherwise broken two party system that he insists requires a political revolution to fix.

19. He represents the change most Americans want.

American workers are sick and tired of a political and economic establishment that for decades failed to deliver. They want a candidate with the guts to take on the rich and powerful, someone who can’t be bought, someone who will fight for them, at all costs.

20. His interest in running isn’t for the power, it’s for the people.

When asked whether or not his former boss would run for the presidency again, Jeff Weaver said, “He’s very focused on the question of beating Trump and putting a Democrat in the White House. And if he runs it’s because he thinks he’s the one to do it.”
One more thing about the post "Why We Can't Have Nice Things." Many of the elite Democratic establishmentarians would feel absolutely justified in destroying the Democratic Party than seeing Bernie nominated, let alone elected president. As for me... if I can't get at least one great president in my life... let's get moving towards this already:



And, yes, of course this, of course. It can't go in any other direction; there is no other direction. Fuck them... no tears for the creatures of the night:



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11 Comments:

At 10:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I realize lefty voters are basically zombies, but your sheepdogging is pretty ridiculous here.

14. He’s stronger than ever due to the DNC’s reforms.
ridiculous. first, he'll have to register as a democrap. Everyone like me will instantly see that as a sellout, just like his sellout after the '16 convention.
second, the superdelegates are only out for the first ballot. After that, they can and will elect biden. All biden has to do is impress enough black (see below), women and latino voters so that Bernie doesn't win on the first ballot. If not biden, then a black candidate like Booker will do.

16. He may be old and white, but minorities like him.
they didn't like him all that much in '16. Blacks were in $hillbillary's pocket. They tend to have an anti-Semitic problem... they'll go with biden or Booker.

18. He’s authentic.
If he were authentic, he'd not have caved to the DNC and supported $hillbillary after the '16 convention. Everyone to whom he seems authentic is either dumber than shit or was born after November 9, 2016.

19. He represents the change most Americans want.
He TALKS about much of that change. But he campaigned for and supported the biggest bankers' whore in history, which means what he DOES is contrary to ANY of that change.

To a lot of engaged, sentient voters like me, he burned the bridge of authenticity the day after the '16 democrap convention. He cast a buttload of doubt about his sincerity on all those issues he campaigned on and for which he has redoubled his rhetorical support since the whore lost to the orange pinhead.

I know that someone who speaks so passionately about shit and then ACTS in opposition to his "passion" cannot be trusted.

Is he who he has said he is for the past 22 months or is he who he was for the few months before the last election? He cannot be both. Which is he? Is he a liar now or was he a liar then?

Voters cannot rely on a Bernie (or Elizabeth, same issues). They must find their own movement and nurture someone new. Otherwise there can be no trust.

 
At 10:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The power of the people is stronger than the people in power"??? again with this?

the people IN power got there because of the power of the people.

The power of the people is irrelevant if the power of the people is never, ever used.

hasn't been used for anything good in this cluster fuck of a shithole for 40 years. Every election where democraps and Nazis are the only parties is a continuation of the power of the people being dormant.

I don't know if Bernie said it or not. But if he did, he's a moron sheepdogging lower morons.

Only when the power of the people coalesces around a true left movement will that power awaken from its long hibernation.

 
At 11:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I want to believe, but I got burned once already. Bernie not walking out of the Convention, instead donning the leash and collar of the sheepdog, broke it for me.

BUT . . .

I advisedly agree with much of the data that Brian Hanley presents in his article. Yet it will only inspire both faces of the corporatist party doing every dirty trick in the book to stop him - AGAIN, for all of those same reasons.

"Bernie cashed in his chips" claims Nellie McKay on the Jimmy Dore Show of 10/23/18 just after 8:30. She managed to compress into a short statement why I have serious hesitations about backing Bernie again.

The others on the show go on to report on what the Party is now doing to ensure that they retain the control over any burgeoning political movements. That part is also worth hearing. It's only another couple of minutes.

Meanwhile, Larry King is busy aiding the GOP with electoral damage control doing what he can to limit the "Blue Wave" by presenting incredible Party propaganda like "this is how the liberal media misstates the facts". King allowed Breitbart's Joel Pollack to completely dominate the discussion and to lead in the topics while largely ignoring former Obama deputy labor secretary Chris Lu except for the obligatory responses he could make without any significant follow-up. I see that this only cements the GOP meme in the minds of the viewers because Lu isn't in a good position to refute the bald-faced lies the GOP spews with impunity.

I only watched this because Larry King had Ralph Nader on (starts at 14:50). Nader makes the claim that the democraps are going to blow the midterms. "Lead-up to midterms 'looks eerily like 2016'". This isn't an accident. Nader reports that he was speaking with a high-level official of the AFL-CIO, who declared that the democraps don't want to win. "They want to win their own seats, but they don't want control. It would threaten their fundraising."

Add this to the stories leaking out the the Mueller investigation was largely a huge nothing burger which isn't going to stop Trump's predations, and I fail to see how anyone can convince me that there is any hope of restoring this nation to a better place.

 
At 11:18 AM, Blogger leu2500 said...

21) he doesn’t sink to Trump’s level. The other republicans, Biden, Warren with the DNA test - they all sink to Trump’s level when they try to take him on. And it’s the old adage: never wrestle with a pig. You get dirty & the pig likes it.

 
At 4:25 PM, Blogger edmondo said...

If he's so fucking popular how come he couldn't beat the most hated woman in America?

Bernie's time has passed. We need a new sheepdog.

 
At 5:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like reading DWT but most of your commenters are so full of crap it is a downer. Trolls? I don’t know. But the negative commenters here all seem to have one thing in common which is a sense of ‘resentment.’ Resentment is, IMO, the most destructive emotion. It is the emotion of the weak and the powerless. Instead of recognizing the masterful campaign that Sanders ran in 2016, as a little known democratic socialist, from a small state, ignored by the media, with no corporate or PAC funding, he has completely changed the conversation in this country, and yes, in the Democratic Party, as well. Nearly all prospective Democratic presidential candidates in 2020 have signed on to Medicare for All. Even Obama, yeah Obama, has endorsed the idea. So, for all those commenters here who seem to never have anything positive to say about ANYONE, I hope you all have a miserable life waiting for the perfect candidate that doesn’t, and never will, exist.

 
At 10:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ride your delusion about "perfect candidates" back to where you came from.

 
At 6:23 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

5:08, you suffer the typical lefty delusion. You believe what democraps SAY (today) and wear blinkers to what they've actually DONE in the past.

Obama gave multiple speeches and SAID he wanted a PO in his ACA. But he'd already vowed to the relevant lobbies/corporations that no such thing would be in the law. In short, he lied to you but not to the corporate sector that writes the democraps big checks.

Bernie's campaign was wonderful. He hit all the correct notes, excited a whole new generation of (non-black) voters, but he was defrauded of the nomination by a party to which he did not belong. The democraps did enough vote fraud for him to lose a few key primaries and also delegates in primaries he did win. And then there are the superdelegates, presworn (read: bought) to support the bank whore.

If he actually held his principles, he would never have endorsed and campaigned for the whore. But he DID.

It is not resentment to observe that someone does not DO what he says.

"By their fruits shall ye know them". get it?

 
At 11:35 AM, Anonymous Skip Kaltenheuser said...


I’d like to echo some thoughts of Anonymous, but of vintage 5:08.PM

Occasionally I have the pleasure of contributing to this free-wheeling but insightful site.

I would do so more often, but I do not possess the superpowers of the ringmaster, who writes skillfully with the speed of a gatling gun. It’s an effort to cobble good amounts of time and thought I need to craft offerings that convey what I aim for. All the better if I can add something, such as amazing art by Nancy Ohanian, to help the medicine go down, or sub-links with added value to support my post. I can see the effort others also put into their contributions.

When something finally and humbly goes forward, it is a treat for me to appear.

Then I wait with trepidation for a particular Anonymous to take the bloom off the rose.

I relish and appreciate feedback, preferably of a constructive nature, including from the individual I’m referring to. But one could form templates from most of his comments and lay them over each other. Broken record status, alas.

From when I came across DWT, it has never been a site shouting Democrats, right or wrong, Democrats! It’s about reform, fighting corruption and clipping the Big Money that undermines the party’s better angels. It’s about getting back to the traditions of pillars like FDR. The anonymous commenter I refer to seems to have missed the memo. I fear he might drown in his cynicism.

The disinformation artists who are a sign of the times are regularly out and about. Experts of various stripes tell us many of their messages are aimed at discrediting participation in our democracy by making such efforts seem futile. They promote a mental state of why bother, abandon all hope ye who enter here.

I’m not accusing this particular commenter of getting payola, of being a minion of Koch or Putin. But where’s the dime's worth of difference? I’d sure appreciate his considering DWT’s core aims every time he’s about to leap onto a bandwagon.

A few quick digressions. On Bernie, I look back at a post during the primaries, Reflections on an Election Year When It Finally Hit the Fan. It pushed the case of Bernie being a more authentic candidate with better prospects than what’shername. It’s refreshing to look back on something I scribbled long ago and note there’s nothing I’d change now. Instead of being a Kamikaze, which some seem to think a noble calling, Bernie has methodically changed the political conversation. Thanks, Bernie.

Those who haven't seen the recent film "Dark Money" on the PBS show POV won’t regret finding time for it. Though mostly focused on Montana, it’s an education on hit and run disinformation by hidden funders. Such assaults on democracy were goosed by Citizens United, forming the bedrock of Justice Anthony Kennedy’s unrepentant legacy.

And for those who suspect, as I long have, that whatever Russia’s election impacts were, they paled next to homegrown mischief, I’d also recommend a recent essay in the Washington Post, "The Russians didn’t swing the 2016 election to Trump. But Fox News might have”, by Harvard law professor Yochai Benkler. Another interesting item was recently in the NY Times, “Rick Gates Sought Online Manipulation Plans from Israeli Intelligence”, which sort of buried the lead, a $2 million payment.

All helpful for contemplating a dime’s worth of difference.

Best,

Skip

 
At 12:13 PM, Blogger DownWithTyranny said...

To 5:08: I rarely read them and when I do it's just to check if they're getting crazy enough so that I have to delete their comments. Just ignore them. I don't understand why they come to DWT anyway. But they're mostly harmless

 
At 2:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Skip, thank you. The template does exist, and I'll 'splain. But first, this site is absolutely NOT about reform when someone (maybe several) exhort voters to 'hold your nose and vote for ANY democrap'. You must be projecting, because it simply cannot be true. Whatever. I still appreciate your note very much.

Obviously I am in total disgust with ALL of American politics... ever since the mid '80s. I repeat my reasons hoping someone will realize, as I do, that it's all shit and continues to degrade with every lesser-evil election. That's the template and that's also why. DWT exhorts for continued lesser-evilism, in spite of its takedowns of even the democraps.

You cannot get reform by doing exactly the same things that have destroyed the society and the party of the "Great Society" and "New Deal".

I invoke Einstein and Santayana frequently. Doesn't seem to get through.

Howie, I come here because there isn't anywhere else worth a rat's ass to go. You do a truly fine job of observing much of what makes the democraps nearly as bad as the Nazis. I'm still awaiting your epiphany that you dance all around... still hoping...

I have observed that there are maybe 2 or 3 more responders today that agree than before... but maybe I'm missing some of the deleted ones. However, affirmation is not my goal. My goal is to instruct and offer perspective.

 

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