The Day After

I know... it's too soon for this kind of speculation-- but Gabby Orr and Dan Lippman started it... so how couldI resist? And the preliminary fingerprinting began weeks, if not months ago. Orr and Lippman reported at Politico that at his rallies, Señor Trumpanzee argues that "the midterms are about one person-- Donald Trump. 'Get out in 2018,' Trump told a crowd in Missouri last month, 'because you’re voting for me!'" Privately, the illegitimate fake "president" says the exact opposite. This is the person who Gideon Rachman tried to claim is a great historical figure rather than a blundering fool and crook:

According to two people familiar with the conversations, Trump is distancing himself from a potential Republican thumping on Election Day. He’s telling confidants that he doesn’t see the midterms as a referendum on himself, describing his 2020 reelection bid as “the real election.” And he says that he holds House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell responsible for protecting their congressional majorities.

According to one person with knowledge of these talks, Trump has said of Ryan and McConnell: “These are their elections … and if they screw it up, it’s not my fault.”

Other sources said Trump is sure to lash out at perhaps his favorite bogeyman of all-- the media-- for allegedly opposing him... [I]n the event of an electoral blowout, Trump is poised to shift the blame a mile down Pennsylvania Avenue.

“Look for the White House to say something like, ‘Paul Ryan chose to be a lame duck speaker instead of leaving, which cost Congress the chance to do several things before November,’” said an aide to one GOP member who speaks with the president often.

A Democratic wave would be especially awkward for a president whose brand is success, and who boasts that his record in office is unmatched by any of his modern predecessors.

Already, hints of a distancing strategy have started to creep into Trump’s public comments, even as he continues to crow at rallies that the midterms are a “referendum” on his first two years in office. Trump told the Associated Press recently that some of his supporters have said to him, “I will never ever go and vote in the midterms because you’re not running.”

Inside the White House, aides are resigned to the fact that Trump-- as he has often done-- will follow his gut on how to message any Democratic takeover of the House on Nov. 6. Those around Trump are anticipating lots of unfiltered, early-morning tweets casting blame on everyone but the president.

“It would be a lot of shooting from the hip in early morning Twitter,” said a well-placed Republican source, who added that the White House seems to lack clear plans for post-election messaging.

The themes are already predictable.

“The arc is gonna be he wasn’t on the ballot, and people didn’t fully appreciate his policies and [candidates] didn’t tie themselves enough to him,” said a person close to the president, who was among several sources to say Trump will likely blame the media as well.

...Before he was president, Trump had a philosophy on whether leaders should accept blame: “Whatever happens, you’re responsible. If it doesn’t happen you’re responsible.”

But once in office, Trump, backed up by his communications team, has shifted blame for setbacks to others-- especially Congress.

...“The president’s rhetoric is what’s actually energized the left, so it would be hard to put it on Congress if we lost the House,” a senior GOP aide told Politico. “But it’s just classic behavior on the part of this president to not shoulder the blame if things go bad, and to definitely take responsibility if things go right.”

OK, so what will the impact of the midterms be on the Republican House leadership, post-Ryan? Trump wants mindless patsy Kevin McCarthy for the top job. But is Trump strong enough to keep McCarthy from being eviscerated by a the far right-- which claims he doesn't share any of their (fascist) values and wants a Gingrich-type disruptor? Or, how much would Trump and McCarthy be willing to give Mark Meadows, Jim Jordan and the rest of the Freedom Caucus radicals to get them to play nice? On Sunday, Lisa Mascaro asserted that "win or lose... House Republicans are at risk of plunging into a messy leadership battle... The election is likely to produce a more conservative, pro-Trump Republican lineup in the House, as most of the GOP incumbents at risk of losing hail from moderate-leaning districts and suburbs. Their defeat would probably concentrate more power in the hands of the House Freedom Caucus and its libertarian-leaning allies in rural, traditionally Republican states who doubt McCarthy’s conservative bona fides. Those lawmakers blocked the Californian’s rise when he first reached for the speaker’s gavel three years ago."

Conservatives say the House majority is at risk in large part because Republicans didn’t stand fully behind Trump. They fault their own side for failing to repeal “Obamacare,” build a wall along the border with Mexico and keep other campaign promises. If there’s a GOP wipeout on Election Day, Republicans will probably be eager to boot the current GOP leadership, which could give rise to Scalise or even Jordan’s unorthodox bid.