Chris Collins (R-NY) Is Really Bad-- And Out On Bail-- But You Can Support Nate McMurray Without Even Thinking About Collins' Unsuitability

For the past decade, the DCCC has been wrong about one of their most basic tenets-- to win in red districts candidates have to go-- or be-- GOP-lite. This has proven a disastrous, failed policy but one the DCCC has dug in on. This cycle, for example, nearly every single candidate they recruited and nearly every single candidate they are supporting with money is a New Dem or Blue Dog from the Republican wing of the party. The only reason to vote for almost any of them is... Trump. Their recruits are, literally, almost all putrid. One candidate they didn't recruit and who is anything but putrid, is Nate McMurray, the progressive Democrat running in western New York (NY-27), a district too red for the DCCC to have bothered to insert one of their repulsive GOP-lite candidates. (Virtually every worthwhile candidate running is either from that kind of a district-- one the DCCC ignored-- or who jumped in on their own and won the primary.) Anyway, over the weekend the editorial board of the Rupert Murdoch-owned New York Post, a right-wing paper, announced their congressional endorsements for 10 districts in New York and New Jersey. For all the DCCC's efforts to recruit especially vile New Dems and Blue Dogs, the only Democrat endorsed by the Post was for PROGRESSIVE Nate McMurray. Ironically, The Post denigrated all the DCCC GOP-lite recruits, from right-wing NRA-loving Blue Dog Anthony Brindisi, who the Post referred to as "a typical liberal Democrat," and Wall Street owned New Dem incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney to clueless militaristic New Dems like Mikie Sherrill and Tom Malinowski. On the other hand, this is what the crazy right-wing Murdoch paper told their readers to do about NY-27:

The one Democrat to win The Post’s backing is Nate McMurray. Not that we find him so impressive, but he’s running against Rep. Chris Collins, who’s under federal indictment for securities fraud and in­sider trading. After first agreeing to drop out, Collins changed his mind and plainly means to use the seat as a chip in plea-bargaining, just as Staten Island’s Michael Grimm did. Again, voters should return the incumbent’s contempt. Republicans can try to retake the seat in 2020.

I guess Medicare-For-All isn't what they liked about Nate. But voters he talks to about it are starting to come around.

Chris Collins was the first member of Congress to endorse Trump-- and there's virtually no one in Congress who has been more of a rubber-stamp. The second member of Congress to endorse Trump was Duncan Hunter. I'm embarrassed to say that I can't remember which one of them was arrested by the FBI and indicted first. The dates were very close, so it hardly matters Collins and Hunter were both indicted on a myriad of unrelated corruption charges.

The odds are a lot better than 538 forecasts

The corruption issue is why even The Post endorsed Nate. The anti-corruption planks of Nate's platform are resonating with voters in a big way, especially because of Collins' impending trial (2020) or-- more likely, plea-bargain. Meanwhile, Nate's Clean up Corruption Plan is going over very well. "Corruption on both sides of the aisle is all too familiar to the people of Western New York, from Chris Collins’ recent indictment for insider trading and lying to the FBI to the guilty pleas of former Erie Democratic Chair Steve Pigeon. Elected officials," he wrote, "should work on behalf of the people they represent and no one else-- not corporate boards, not special interests, their constituents. It’s that simple. We know the consequences of a man like Mr. Collins all too well in this region: their greed robs us as taxpayers and their betrayal undermines our faith in democracy. It is the antithesis of public service. In Congress, I will fight for this to limit special interests’ influence on our leaders and elections. We deserve better.” This is an outline of the plan he's been sharing with NY-27 voters:

Political Corruption by Nancy Ohanian

• Enact far stricter limits on political contributions from special interests, lobbyists and wealthy special interests. Nate has voluntarily imposed  a ban on corporate PAC money for his campaign, but this should be the law for all candidates.
• Prohibit Members of Congress from sitting on for-profit corporate boards.
• Pass tougher campaign finance laws and more transparent disclosures of outside political spending.
• Overturn the disastrous Citizens United decision, which opened the floodgates for unlimited, untraceable spending in our elections.

As you'd expect, Nate has funded his campaign the right way. Nearly 6,000 different people contributed to his campaign in the last three months. More than 4,600 of them gave $50 or less. In fact, the average donation was under $70. Good fodder for debates, right? Yeah-- and maybe that's partially why Collins keeps skipping out on them-- and why he refuses to sit down with the media for any interviews. A few days ago they were supposed to do a forum at SUNY Geneseo and-- par for the course-- Collins was a no-show.

Nate remarked that "If Chris Collins doesn’t show up for the voters now, how can they believe he’d show up for them in Congress? We already know the answer-- he hasn’t. And he won’t. He was arrested by President Trump’s justice department for insider trading, he’s out on bail, he’s using his position as member of Congress to stay out of prison, and he doesn’t want anyone to ask him about it. After the forum, voters came up to me to say 'we’re so glad you came. Chris Collins never comes here.' They know that country is more important than party and they deserve a representative who works every day to protect Medicare and Social Security, fights for farmers and supports small businesses."

Nate has been crisscrossing the district all year talking to voters and holding public events. He’s pledged to hold one town hall per month once elected. The only opportunity anyone has to hear from Collins is via his poisonous and deceitful TV ads against Nate. Unless you're a fat cat donor, you don't get to see him in person.

On Monday, Joseph Spector at the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: broke the news that the race-- which the DCCC had originally written off as unwinnable-- is now a dead-heat.

I usually warn readers that the NY Times-Siena polls are worthless and that they don't give any real indiction about who's going to win. They just don't know how to poll in races outside New York. But they do know how to poll New York and their polls are worth considering in the New York state races. The new one they just released for NY-27 stunned many political observers. The district has a daunting R+11 PVI, Obama lost it both times and Trump trounced Hillary 59.7% to 35.2%, her worst performance-- by far-- in any New York district. But Nate, a progressive, is no Hillary Clinton and it's worth remembering that Bernie won the district handily in the 2016 primary.

In the new poll, the candidates are within the margin of error-- Collins with46% and McMurray with 43%, although only Collins was up on TV during the polling. The poll also found that Collins has a 37% favorability rating with 49% unfavorable rating, compared to a favorabilty rating of 32% for McMurray who has a 21% unfavorable and still needs to get better known. You can contribute to his campaign by clicking on the Blue America 2018 congressional thermometer on the right. It will help to get his name and his message out to more voters in this largely rural district.

“The indicted incumbent, who only recently reignited his campaign after initially suspending it, ekes out a small advantage over his challenger,” Siena College poll spokesman Steven Greenberg said in a statement.

“Republican Collins holds a narrow three-point lead over Democrat McMurray in a district that has more than 40,000 more Republicans than Democrats."

The district favored Republicans maintaining control of the House by 18 percentage points, but was split over Collins and McMurray, the poll said.

While McMurray was supported by nearly three-quarters of Democrats, Collins has the support of 19 percent of them, Greenberg said.

However, McMurray did better than Collins with the opposite party, with nearly one-quarter of Republicans backing McMurray, the poll found.

“Collins is well known but not particularly well liked," Greenberg said.

"Only Republicans view him favorably, and that’s not overwhelming at 48-35 percent. In fact, one of every eight Collins voters views him unfavorably."

Conversely, Republicans approved of President Donald Trump by 74 percent to 17 percent.

Collins was charged with giving insider information about a pharmaceutical company to his son, who then allegedly sold off shares before the news became public. The case isn't set for trial until 2020.

Ready for some more irony? Murdoch and his editorial board aren't the only Republicans backing Nate. There's now an official Republicans For Nate organization helping to flip voters-- and that's without Nate going all GOP-lite on us. Nate: "From the beginning, our campaign has been about the values of this region, economic fairness and integrity. My commitment was never to any one party, it was always to families like mine, and hardworking folks worried about healthcare and social security, wanting a system that works for them, knowing we deserve better than a member of Congress out on bail. I may not agree with everyone on every issue, but I promise to listen and truly represent the people of this region. If you believe in America First, that means you also believe that party has to come second-- and that should be true for Democrats or Republicans. I’m humbled by the support of such hardworking patriots who know we need to put country over party... Voters from all backgrounds can’t run away fast enough from Chris Collins. Every day I meet more regular folks who believe in putting country over party. They’re sick of the fighting, sick of being lied to, and embarrassed to be represented by a man out on bail. Voters are smarter than Mr. Collins gives them credit for... We don’t all agree on every issue, but I will always listen and truly represent the people of our region."

Founded by Cecily Molak, Republicans for Nate has steering committee members from across the district who will lead outreach to their fellow Republicans on behalf of Nate. They include Theron Howard, a former town supervisor from Pavilion, as well as veterans and GOP activists.  Since the August indictment, national and local Republicans have been turning their back on Collins. Paul Ryan stripped him of all his committee assignments and the NRCC said they would "not give a dime" to this race. And the House Ethics Committee voted unanimously to investigate him.

Molak, who's from the eastern part of the district in Monroe County: "When I voted for Chris Collins in the 2016 election, I had no idea that a few months later I’d be filing a complaint against him with the Office of Congressional Ethics. I didn’t know that he’d sold us out to make himself, his family and his friends even richer. We have a right to demand that our government officials act ethically and in our interests. I’m convinced Nate McMurray will do just that. I’m voting for Nate in November, and so are almost all my Republican friends."

Charles Brown of South Wales, a longtime Republican who joined the steering committee, said he's "disgusted with Chris Collins and the way he’s enabled a national agenda I just can’t agree with. I watch what Nate has done on Grand Island, using practical experience, hard work and intelligence to bring growth and opportunity to his constituents. Nate has integrity and toughness. We need smart minds and fresh approaches to the old problems that the current tired old bunch in Washington refuse to do anything about. In my mind, Nate McMurray is the man for the job.”

Theron Howard, the former two-term Town Supervisor from Pavilion, NY said that he had crossed over to back a progressive Democrat because he "realized that there is no Republican candidate for New York’s 27th congressional seat that I could in good conscience vote for. Rather than allow my absence from the polls to, in effect, give a vote for the status quo, I took a close look at Nate McMurray. I was immediately impressed with what I saw. He embodies the qualities we want for our elected officials and is not afraid to come out and meet with the people he seeks to represent. He is tuned in to the issues that are important to all of us and not just a privileged few. He has my unqualified support and I urge everyone to carefully consider our options on November 6th, forget about blurred party lines, and vote for Nate McMurray for truly quality representation in Congress.”

Alan Knight (USAF Ret) lives in Canandaigua, also in the eastern part of the district. He explained that "Just because I’m a Republican doesn’t mean I’ll vote for a criminal. I met Nate at a roundtable with veterans like myself. He took the time to listen to us and pledged to continue to meet with us and address the concerns of the veterans community in Congress."

See what I mean about how wrong the DCCC is about insisting their candidates run as inauthentic GOP-lite-- or, worse, as authentic GOP-lite.