Who Will Bring Down Trump? Mueller? Stormy? Or Is It Us?

Quinnipiac released a new poll today. It isn't especially good news for Trumpanzee. 57% of voters say he's damaged rather than improved (34%) the U.S. reputation around the world. But it gets worse. 55% of voters say he has no sense of decency and 67% say he isn't a good role model for children. (29% of voters say he is a good role model. Obviously they should be sterilized immediately and if they have minor children, the kids should be assigned social workers.)

I tend to think of Stormy Daniels as a distraction. I mean everyone already knows Trump is an amoral scumbag, right? Well... everyone you and I know do, but there are plenty of voters who don't believe any of it-- and more who could care less. They think of Stormy Daniels as a distraction too-- even the 2011 lie dictator test that showed a 99% probability that she told the truth when she said they had unprotected sex with Señor Trumpanzee in 2006. Which means Trump has been consistently lying about it. The examiner asked her a series of questions, three of which were relevant to the alleged affair: 'Around July 2006, did you have vaginal intercourse with Donald Trump? Around July 2006, did you have unprotected sex with Donald Trump? Did Trump say he would get you on The Apprentice?' Clifford answered 'yes' to all three, according to the report." Her attorney:

"Long before Mr. Trump announced his candidacy for the presidency, Ms. Clifford [Stormy] passed a lie detector test confirming her relationship with Mr. Trump," Avenatti said. "Where are his test results claiming otherwise? Where are Mr. Cohen’s test results claiming otherwise? When this is over, the American people will know the truth about the relationship and the cover-up."

Meanwhile, the NY Times reported yesterday that "A former Playboy model who claimed she had an affair with Donald Trump sued to be released from a 2016 legal agreement requiring her silence, becoming the second woman this month to challenge Trump allies’ efforts during the presidential campaign to bury stories about extramarital relationships... The model, Karen McDougal, is suing the company that owns the National Enquirer, American Media Inc., which paid her $150,000 and whose chief executive is a friend of Mr. Trump’s."

As much as I believe all this stuff-- and more and worse-- I think it's just gossip that ultimately no one really cares about when it comes to the one thing that's important: defeating Trump and his enablers at the polls-- in November and in 2020. Richard Cohen doesn't agree. He opined in the Washington Post yesterday that Stormy Daniels-- not Robert Mueller-- might spell Trump’s doom. He compared Trump and Stormy to Harry in Hemingway's The Snows of Kilimanjaro-- Harry is Trump and Stormy is the little scratch that he didn't treat, turned gangrenous and killed him. "The saga of the adult-film star and the juvenile president," he wrote, "has become a rollicking affair. Each step of the way, Daniels has out-Trumped Trump. She is as shameless as he, a publicity hound who adheres to the secular American religion that, to be famous, even for nothing much, is to be rich. By and large, that’s not true, but then there is Kim Kardashian to prove otherwise... [Stormy] appears everywhere. She makes statements, vows, rebuttals and allegations and is scheduled to appear this Sunday on 60 Minutes. Trump must be shaking his head in admiration. He supposedly used to call in gossip items about himself to New York reporters, employing a false name and false voice. He even exulted in publicity about his extramarital affair with Marla Maples, who was overheard by the New York Post alleging it was the 'best sex I’ve ever had.'"

In pre-Trump days, it might have been possible to destroy Daniels by calling her a slut or whatever. But Trump himself is a slut. He is a liar and a moral harlot who revels in irresponsibility and bad-boy behavior. He has no moral edge over his accuser. We have all been instructed by Trump himself to disregard schoolhouse virtues of honesty, dignity and rectitude. Trump himself travels light.

It was the little thing that killed Harry on safari. It was the unattended cut, the disabled truck, the tardy rescue plane. As he died, he dreamed of Kilimanjaro, “unbelievably white in the sun” but the hyena that had been stalking him made “a strange, human, almost crying sound,” and he knew what the hyena already knew. It is what Trump is learning.

I still don't see that changing many votes. Evangelicals? Not a chance! The Christian right is al about the right and not about anything remotely Christian. If Jesus came back and denounced Trump, they'd take Trump's side and string up Jesus. The kind of people who care about this stuff, already hate Trump or, at least, want to see a Congress in place that will put checks on him. And fortunately, that cohort of the population is already a majority-- 50% who say they want to see Democrats running Congress to 40% who say they want to see Republicans running the show. This week Lake Research released a poll of voters in 30 targeted swing districts that finds that progressive Democrats have a tremendous opportunity in the 2018 election to win these districts, and they can run and win on progressive policies. Lake found found that in these districts, mostly held by Republican incumbents, voters enthusiastically support progressive policies and progressive messaging works, both to persuade swing voters and to mobilize the base.

Across these congressional districts, Democrats currently lead by +11 points on the generic ballot for Congress, with Democrats receiving 46% of the vote, Republicans receiving 35%, and 17% undecided. There is a clear enthusiasm gap, with 38% of voters strongly supporting the Democratic candidate but only 27% of voters saying the same for the Republican candidate.

"Trump, they found, "is deeply unpopular in these districts, with just 36% of voters rating him as doing an excellent or good job, compared with 64% of voters who give him a just fair or poor rating. The Democratic Party also holds a number of advantages over the Republican Party, leading by +21 points on 'reducing the influence of corporations and special interests in Washington,' +15 points on 'building a better future for our children,' and by +11 points on 'better for working families' and 'on your side.' One note of warning for Democrats is that they trail the Republican Party by -10 points on which party is 'better on jobs and the economy.' Voters in these districts are clear that they want a bold economic vision as opposed to a more incremental approach. When asked, 52% of voters said they prefer 'a bold and comprehensive agenda to rewrite the rules of the economy,' compared with the 36% of voters who would choose to 'make our economy work for everyone by building on the success of the past.' In particular, progressive surge voters favor the bold vision 61% to 28% and independent voters favor the bold vision 52% to 40%."

Progressive policies enjoy strong support among voters in these districts. The most intensely popular policies focus on prescription drugs, health care, infrastructure, protecting Social Security and Medicare, and cracking down on Wall Street, and these policies were popular with both swing voters and surge voters. Prescription drugs are so popular that they are seen as a core value across all demographics, with even 66% of Republicans strongly in support of allowing Medicare to negotiate prices like the VA.

...These policies not only motivate the progressive base, but make voters more likely to support Democrats. A majority of voters (52%) said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate talking about the progressive policies we mentioned, while only 26% would be less likely.

After progressive policies and messages, we see not only gains for Democratic candidates but a drop in support for Republican candidates. On our final ballot, Democrats receive a near-majority of the vote (49%) and support for Republican candidate dips to 31%, widening the Democratic lead to +18 points, with 19% undecided. This shift includes expanding the margin with white non-college voters from +5 points to +9 points from the initial (43% Democrat, 38% Republican) to the final (45% Democrat, 36% Republican) ballot.