Republicans Are Catching on That There's A Wave Headed Their Way-- A Big One

The Washington Post's Robert Costa and Philip Rucker reported that-- wait for it-- Republicans fear Democratic wins mean more losses to come. Who'd a thunk? I guess people who have never been through a wave election-- like the Republican wave of 2010 or the Democratic wave of 2006. Waves are powerful and unstoppable. They wash away everything in their paths. And right now suburban Republicans like, for example, Darrell Issa, Dana Rohrabacher, Mimi Walters, Ed Royce and Steve Knight in Southern California and John Culberson, Pete Sessions and Lamar Smith in Texas, are all in the path. Smith announced his retirement. Issa announced he's voting against Ryan's tax bill. Maybe Rohrabacher will seek asylum in Russia. Maybe with Devin Nunes.

Costa and Rucker mention a the wave as igniting "a ferocious debate across the Republican Party on Wednesday over whether President Trump’s un­or­tho­dox behavior and polarizing agenda are jeopardizing the GOP’s firm grip on power in Congress, governors’ mansions and state legislatures. The recriminations sparked by Tuesday’s results-- a decisive rebuke of Trump and his policies in Virginia and elsewhere-- threatened the fragile GOP push to pass sweeping tax cuts by the end of the year and raised deeper questions about Republican identity and fealty to a historically unpopular president." What a pity (not).

A year ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, Republicans are increasingly uncertain about keeping their majorities on Capitol Hill and are worried about how damaging Trump’s jagged brand of politics may become to the party.

“Donald Trump is an anchor for the GOP,” said veteran party strategist Mike Murphy, a Trump critic. “We got that message in loud volume in Virginia. The ­canary in the coal mine didn’t just pass out; its head exploded.”

The unease was palpable among vulnerable lawmakers, especially in suburban districts with the kind of voters who roundly rejected Ed Gillespie in Virginia. The Republican gubernatorial nominee ran on countering gang crime and illegal immigration and protecting Confederate history-- cultural issues that Trump has made a touchstone of his presidency-- but lost to ­Democrat Ralph Northam, 54 percent to 45 percent.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) said Tuesday’s contests were a lesson to Republicans that catering to the party’s conservative base with hard-line appeals and incendiary language turns off the moderate voters they need to win in states like his own. He said his party must choose between a political message of “blaming and scapegoating” or a more hopeful pitch centered around everyday issues such as health care and the economy.

“This is a repudiation of the politics of narrow,” Kasich said. In an apparent reference to Trump’s 2016 victory, the governor added, “The politics of anger may work for a moment in time, but it does not last, thank goodness.”

...[E]ven among Trump’s allies, there were complaints about the White House being dis­engaged and unready to deal with the party’s mounting challenges.

“The White House isn’t paying attention to the suburbs, and there has never really been a political operation there,” said Edward J. Rollins, the strategist for the Great America Alliance super PAC, a pro-Trump group. “They have to develop a strategy where it’s not just Trump alone winning, where the whole party is able to win.”

Andy Surabian, an adviser to the group and an associate of former White House chief strategist Stephen K. Bannon, said blame cast upon Trump and Bannon for lurching the GOP to the right was misplaced.

“Establishment Republicans are blaming Trump and talking about Armageddon, but what is their alternative?” Surabian asked.

...Rep. Ryan Costello (R-PA) conceded that the election results present challenges for incumbents like him. He represents a suburban Philadelphia district that Democrats are targeting aggressively in a region where Democrats won some local and county races for the first time in more than a century.

“We don’t know if it’ll be a wave. What we saw yesterday suggests that hypothesis has some merit, but remember, congressional districts are still one by one,” Costello told reporters on Capitol Hill. “I’m very confident that I’ve given 110 percent effort to this job.”

...Republican strategists said the party’s image has suffered from nearly a year of stalemates, fits and failures to govern, despite the party’s control of both chambers of Congress and the White House. That is one reason the proposed tax code overhaul has taken on such urgency among GOP leaders.

Robert J. Dole, a former Republican Senate leader and presidential nominee, said that it was premature to assess the political environment for the midterms and that his party could improve its standing if it manages to pass major legislation.

“While I am disappointed in the overall results of yesterday’s election in Virginia, I don’t believe we can measure the full impact on the GOP just yet,” Dole said. “If Congress passes the tax bill this year, this will help the president’s popularity. As a party, we should have a better sense of where things are headed in six months or so.”

Republican consultant Josh Holmes, a former chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), said Tuesday’s losses should prompt the party’s lawmakers to act quickly on taxes.

“It provides all the motivation they need to get something done,” Holmes said. “In part, what happened on Tuesday is a reaction to what’s not being done and a warning sign that they need to move. They don’t have any choice but to do the tax plan.”

But with aspects of the tax plan fluid as Republicans squabble over its details, Murphy and other Republicans said lawmakers will have to make decisions that allow them to appear independent from Trump in case the tax legislation fails to pass or the president’s approval ratings decline further.

“Republican members of Congress in swing districts cannot be Trump lemmings. They have to create their own strong identities,” Murphy said.

In the states where Republicans have won control of a majority of gubernatorial offices and state legislatures over the last decade, GOP leaders said the path forward was much the same: protect yourself.

By Wednesday Democrats in suburban districts were aggressively attacking their opponents, linking them to Trump. Katie Porter is running for a seat in an Orange County district occupied by Trump rubber stamp Mimi Walters. "Mimi Walters should be shaking in her boots," she wrote. "Last night, Democrats won a wave of down ballot races in Virginia, New Jersey, and other parts of the country, proving that the American people overwhelming reject candidates who stand by Donald Trump’s and Paul Ryan’s dangerous agenda... At a time when our values are constantly under attack by Donald Trump and by Republicans like Mimi Walters, you have answered the call to rise above the fray, to roll up your sleeves, and to fight to take our country back from those who put powerful special interests ahead of serving the American people. This is our moment. This is our time to put families back at the center of every policy decision. This is our time to create better opportunities for our kids. This is our time to restore our truest American values of equality and inclusion. This is our time to fix a system that favors corporate lobbyists over constituents."

In the suburbs north of Dallas, Lillian Salerno was sending out the same kind of message: "Voters in Virginia, New Jersey, and communities around the country voted for progress and against hate last night in a huge Democratic wave-- and you’d better believe Texas is next. We’re officially less than one year away from the 2018 midterm elections and I’m more fired up than ever to oust Pete Sessions and return Texas-32 to the people. Now is the time to step up the energy through 2018 to the next election, so we can take back Congress and stop Sessions and his allies from taking away our health care, raising our taxes, and putting corporate interests first and families last."

Jared Golden's Maine district is mixed-- urban, suburban, exurban, rural-- but he was on the same line of attack Wednesday, if in a more specifically local sense. "Yesterday, voters made a powerful choice," he wrote. "Mainers voted overwhelmingly to expand Medicaid coverage to 70,000 of our neighbors, and made history by becoming the first state to do so by referendum. This was a hard fought win that has been years in the making. You should be proud. But this is no time to celebrate. Governor LePage continues to work to limit access to quality health care in Maine while Bruce Poliquin works with Paul Ryan to do the same in Washington. We need to stay committed to this fight. With the 2018 Midterm Elections only a year away, we cannot afford to take this victory for granted. Together we can win the fight for affordable health care for all Mainers."

Daylin Leach, who's taking on Pat Meehan in the Philly suburbs-- particularly Delaware County, where Democrats had such a surprisingly good night Tuesday-- went on the attack too. "Last night," he said, "was a game changer for our campaign to take back the 7th district. Democrats across the 7th saw historic wins at the county level-- defeating entrenched Republicans in Delaware and Chester counties-- something we’ve never done before. In Montgomery County we also continued to flip more local control on school boards and town councils in traditionally Republican strongholds. We know today that Pat Meehan is scared because he knows the 7th congressional district has resoundingly rejected Trumpism and if we capitalize on this, we will win even bigger in 2018. There’s no doubt in anyone’s mind now; the Democrats have the momentum on their side, and in 2018, we have a serious shot of taking back the House by converting our wins last night into a win in 2018."

These communications practically write themselves. And every Democrat is doing it. The Republican defense is feeble and incoherent. Regardless of what they say, they know a wave is headed their way, and it's more likely to be a tsunami than a ripple. Don't be surprised if Ryan announces his intention to give up and retire from Congress after the tax battle is finished. He knows he can't win against Randy Bryce, tsunami or no tsunami. Independent votes in southeast Wisconsin, like independent voters across the country, and finished with Ryan and his Republican Party.