I Doubt Bernie Primary Voters Who Backed Trump (12%) Will Vote For Status Quo Democrats

After the Wasserman Schultz primaries and the post-Wasserman Schultz convention most Bernie supporters I know did exactly what Bernie urged them to do-- they voted for Hillary Clinton. And the ones I know who didn't, voted for Jill Stein. Polling bears my observation out on the first fact-- close to 80% of Bernie supporters cast their ballots for Hillary in the general. But 12% of Bernie voters got the idea that they would rather vote for Trump-- who was spouting "change"-- than vote for the status quo (or incrementalist) candidate. And, according to University of Massachusetts political science professor Brian Schaffner in several key states-- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan-- the number of Sanders to Trump defectors were greater than Trump’s margin of victory-- 51,000 in Wisconsin (where the Trumpanzee margin of victory was 22,000); 47,000 in Michigan (where the Trumpanzee margin of victory was just 10,000); and 116,000 in Pennsylvania (where the Trumpanzee margin of victory was 44,000). There's no "Hillary Would Have Won" song on YouTube like the one up top, is there?

Schaffner also noted that in 2008, more Hillary primary supporters went over to McCain (instead of Obama) in the general than Bernie voters who voted for Trump. Jeff Stein at Vox:

[G]iven Democrats’ interest in winning back the Rust Belt, it’s worth digging into exactly who this population of voters is. Schaffner found some demographic characteristics that might align with what you’d expect-- Bernie-Trump voters were older and whiter than the average Democratic primary voter, for instance.

Perhaps surprisingly, however, these defectors did not turn out to have views on trade policy that marked them as significantly more opposed to free trade than the average Democrat. That may fly against the expectation that Sanders’ views on trade were unique to his appeal, but some political scientists were making that case as early as April 2016.

Also of note: the Bernie-Trump voter also proved much more likely to consider himself or herself “somewhat conservative” or “very conservative” than the average Democrat. Sanders, of course, ran on a policy platform well to Clinton’s left-- but was able to do so in a way that allowed him to win over voters that disdain the “liberal” label.

...[Schaffner:] The thing that really stood out to me is that a lot of these people who voted for Sanders-- and then Trump-- don't look like modern day Democrats. So you saw a lot fewer of them actually identify as Democrats than your normal Sanders voter; and, even more striking, they seem to have views on racial issues that are far more conservative than your typical Democrat.

It's not clear to me this necessarily if this is a Hillary Clinton problem specifically, or if this was Bernie Sanders having a special appeal to bring people into Democratic Party primaries, who would otherwise be inclined to be Republicans.

...[T]hey were also older and whiter [than the average Bernie voter in the primary], and also less liberal.

Of the ones that switched to Trump, only about 25 percent also voted for a Democratic candidate for Congress. And we do have a little bit about what they did in 2012-- it looks like they were split roughly evenly, 50-50, between Obama and Romney. So these appear to be people who are trending out of the Democratic Party.

Of those Bernie voters who supported Trump in the general election, the average age was 52. Those who stuck with Clinton were an average age of 45, and of those who broke for a third party, the average age was 44. Of those that didn’t vote, their average age was 35-- these were the ones that got activated by Bernie, and then dropped back out when he didn't win. It’s worth noting that very few of the primary voters stayed home. People who vote in primaries are highly engaged in politics-- they’re not people who come in and out of the electorate.

I also looked at how the Bernie-Trump voters identify themselves on the ideological scale, and very few say that they're liberal. Only about 17 to 18 percent say that they're liberal, in any kind of way, shape, or form, though they voted for Sanders.

By contrast, about 45 percent of these Bernie-Trump voters say they're ‘middle of the road’-- basically, a lot of them see themselves as “moderates.” Meanwhile, another 35 percent of them are claiming to be either somewhat conservative or very conservative.

I think what this starts to suggest to me is that these are old holdovers from the Democratic Party that are conservative on race issues. And while Bernie wasn't campaigning on that kind of thing, Clinton was much more forthright about courting the votes of minorities-- and maybe that offended them, and then eventually pushed them out and toward Trump.

Randy Bryce, the progressive Democrat running for the congressional seat in southeast Wisconsin currently held by Paul Ryan, is an interesting antidote to Hillary. He was a Bernie surrogate during the primaries and helped Bernie win the Wisconsin primaries 567,936 (56.6%) to 432,767 (43.1%). It's worth noting that on that same day, Trump won just 386,370 votes in Wisconsin, coming in second to Ted Cruz (whose 531,129 votes were also fewer than Bernie's). In the heart of Ryan's congressional district, Bernie beat Hillary in Racine Co. and beat Trump, 14,651 to 11,756; Bernie beat Hillary I'm Kenosha Co. and beat Trump, 14,612 to 11,139; Bernie beat Hillary in Walworth Co. and beat Trump, 8,405 to 7,534; and Bernie beat Hillary in Rock County (where Ryan lives) and beat Trump, 17,337 to 10,264.

After the convention, Bryce became a Clinton backer and was selected by her campaign to serve as one of her Electoral College electors. He's working to unite Wisconsin Democrats and independents-- as well as the district's Republicans sickened by Trump-- around a Wisconsin version of the People's Platform, which is centered around 8 bills:

• John Conyers' Medicare For All Act (H.R. 676)
• Pramila Jayapal's College For All Act (H.R. 1880)
• Bobby Scott's Raise The Wage Act (H.R. 13)
• Barbara Lee's Equal Access to Abortion Coverage in Health Insurance (H.R. 771)
• David Cicilline's Automatic Voter Registration Act (H.R. 2840)
• Raul Grijalva's Justice Is Not For Sale Act (H.R. 3227)
• Keith Ellison's Inclusive Prosperity (H.R. 1144)
• Jared Huffman's Keep It In the Ground Act (H.R. 2242)